G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 1 EPS
Current FY Next Two FY
BIDU 8.7 12.0
BABA 5.1 8.4
TCEHY 6.9 10.6
NTES 15.7 21.6
JD 3.6 9.9
按这个估计BABA，NTES，BIDU，按两年后的earnings算，大概是P/E 20，可以理解。
可是俺这个估计，TCEHY和JD要暴涨到200呀。但是too good to be true呀。
大牛说说，是不是有哪里不对劲呀。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 2 你丫会算数不。你自己的数据显示到2021年底才有4.7T的债务增加，而且还是估计的。
奥巴增加的快10万亿绝大部分是来pump股市。川普除了pump股市，还要减税，增加债务
免不了的。你们这些二逼川黑就是川普为啥在台上的原因。完全看不清形势，就尼玛会
搞fake news加无脑黑。
: 和川粉真没法谈，没脑子可以看数据：
: 经济危机的时候必须要增加国债，奥巴马八年增加了$8.588 trillion
: 川普到了2019年就要增加$4.775trillion，也就两年吧，没有经济危机他为什么
要增加
: 这么多国债？
: 川粉数学不行就别天天舔着脸跪舔你的主子，舔的都不是地方
: https://www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-
: 3306296
: Donald Trump: As projected in the FY 2019 budget, Trump plans to add $
4.775
: trilli... 阅读全帖 |
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s******u
发帖数: 14 | 3 When to File an FY 2012 H-1B Cap-Subject Petition
We began accepting H-1B petitions that are subject to the FY 2012 cap on
April 1, 2011. You may file an H-1B petition no more than 6 months in
advance of the requested start date.
10/1开始生效，4月1开始申请下个财年吧？ |
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M**********n
发帖数: 432 | 4 USCIS to Accept H-1B Petitions for Fiscal Year 2011 Beginning April 1, 2010
WASHINGTON - U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced
today that it will begin accepting H-1B petitions subject to the fiscal year
(FY) 2011 cap on April 1, 2010. Cases will be considered accepted on the
date that USCIS takes possession of a properly filed petition with the
correct fee; not the date that the petition is postmarked.
The fiscal year cap (numerical limitation on H-1B petitions) for FY 20 |
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A*********r
发帖数: 8271 | 5 引子
什么是家庭？从百度找了个定义。http://baike.baidu.com/view/10659.htm
家庭是由婚姻，血缘或收养关系所组成的社会组织的基本单位。家庭有广义和狭义之分
，狭义是指一夫一妻制构成的单元；广义的则泛指人类进化的不同阶段上的各种家庭利
益集团即家族。 从社会设置来说，家庭是最基本的社会设置之一，是人类最基本最重
要的一种制度和群体形式。（社会设置，即组织起来满足一个社会基本需要的社会结构
丛）从功能来说，家庭是儿童社会化，供养老人，性满足，经济合作，普遍意义上人类
亲密关系的基本单位。从关系来说，家庭是由具有婚姻、血缘和收养关系的人们长期居
住的共同群体。
家庭移民
家庭可以定义得很大，但在家庭移民的办理过程，家庭是个特定的称谓。移民中，
Family包括两类，
第一类是Immediate Relative （IR)，IRs没有排期，没有移民名额限制。
IR包括以下几种情况，公民的配偶和未成年子女，绿卡持有者在海外旅行出生的子女。
（Spouses and minor children of USCs， Child born to LPR during ... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******y
发帖数: 6523 | 6 You can not apply for H1B now. The quota for 2012 FY was used up last Nov.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e
The quota for 2013 FY will become available for application on Apr 1, 2012.
In those bad years, the quota might use up in just a few days after Apr 1,
and lottery was needed on the last acceptable day. Nowadays the quota may
last for a few months.
When you are back, you need to apply for H1b, not F1. H1b allows dual
intention.
BTW, based on the way you ask ab... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******8
发帖数: 1430 | 7 来源：http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/219137.pdf
In FY 2010 the Department of State increased the per capita Reception and
Placement grant from $900 to $1,800. This grant helps cover initial services
after a refugee’s arrival in the United States. This step recognized that
the grant amount was insufficient and had not kept pace with inflation, the
cost of living and the rising costs of resettlement. The doubling of this
grant was undertaken with the approval of and support from Congress... 阅读全帖 |
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F***m
发帖数: 2284 | 8 刚看到USCIS网站上的正式通知（今天发出的）：
USCIS Suspends Final Adjudication of Employment-Based Adjustment
Applications for the Remainder of FY 2015
Starting today, USCIS will suspend final adjudication of employment-based
Form I-485 applications (Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent
Residence or Adjust Status) because the Department of State reports that the
statutory cap has been reached for the employment-based preference
categories for fiscal year (FY) 2015.
This suspension applies to all employment... 阅读全帖 |
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F***m
发帖数: 2284 | 9 刚看到USCIS网站上的正式通知（今天发出的）：
USCIS Suspends Final Adjudication of Employment-Based Adjustment
Applications for the Remainder of FY 2015
Starting today, USCIS will suspend final adjudication of employment-based
Form I-485 applications (Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent
Residence or Adjust Status) because the Department of State reports that the
statutory cap has been reached for the employment-based preference
categories for fiscal year (FY) 2015.
This suspension applies to all employment... 阅读全帖 |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 11 So you can see he has no clue about what will be PDwise.
In Jan VB, he predicted the FY end PD will be Oct 2005 for Chinese. And it's
Nov NOW. We should go to 2006
w/o problem by this FY end. |
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G******0
发帖数: 737 | 12 贴一个样本
June 4, 2010
[Recipient Name]
[Street Address]
[City, ST ZIP Code]
RE: Mismanagement Led to Disadvantage of China Employment-Based Second
Preference in FY-2009 and Potentially in FY-2010
Dear Congressman/Congresswoman/Senator XXX:
I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding severe mismanagement of
the crucial visa number allocation process under the Immigration Visa
Control and Report Di |
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F*****t
发帖数: 2580 | 13 本FY基本已经大局已定，没什么可改变的了。也就是7月排期不变，8，9两月和老印捆
绑。就短期来说，也就是至少5年之内，基本没有改变这个捆绑政策的可能，甚至永远
都没有这个可能。老中下一步比较现实的目标，就是要推动O在新的FY里，尽早消耗掉
EB2C的配额，也就是取得和EB2I一样的待遇。 |
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d****y
发帖数: 1671 | 14 O刚发出的消息的确证实了剩余名额应大于他原来的估计，也就是说NIU的17000可能非
常接近了。这个FY到06/06还是有可能的。从03/05一个FY能跳多于一年很不容易啊 |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 15 Great pic.
I think it will be more accurate if you break the data into every year.
There are fundamental changes every year or a few years. Apparently, this
fiscal year is better than last FY. Next few years could be same to this FY.
So the line should be more optimistic, imho.
spillover |
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j*******1
发帖数: 16 | 16 Please pay attendtion on the following paragraph in the article. Perhaps
Chinese can't get any spill over in FY2011.
It is also worth noting that worldwide, there were almost 156,157 EB
numbers available for FY 2010 and this year FY 2011 (October 1, 2010 to
September 30, 2011), there will be only 140,000 EB numbers, due to the
statutory scheme by which numbers are allocated and unused numbers are
allowed to be freed up for worldwide use during the last quarter of the year
. |
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w********r
发帖数: 727 | 17 EB2 ROW没人了
PERM没人了
后面没人了
现在到2年以内要乐观点 |
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l*****f
发帖数: 2198 | 19 上一财年FB的确没有剩余名额
九月中旬的时候移民局就通告本财年所有签证名额告罄了。
EB暂时不知 |
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f*******e
发帖数: 4531 | 20 Oppenheim has confirmed this. EB total is reset to original. This year won
't be as good as last year.
It is particularly bad for EB3C. There are over 11000 EB3/EW application
pending in consulates. |
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g******i
发帖数: 1942 | 21 fy 2010: 10/1/09---9/30/2010.
fy 2011: 10/1/2010--9/30/2011 |
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A****S
发帖数: 978 | 22 EB2 ROW and EB1 should have more leftover than we expected due to the change
of 140 processing time.
After careful research, I found ROW EB2 with PD later than Oct.2010 didn't
get any approval yet.
The earliest PD for the approved ROW EB2 is 10/3/2010.
The average EB2 ROW GC apprvoal time was 50-100 days in the latter of FY
2010. (It was 450 days in FY 2007-2008)
Now it has been increased to 180 days or even more! |
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A****S
发帖数: 978 | 23 All the information is public information.
I did careful research using the data from Trackitt.
Not a single EB2 with PD later than Nov.2010 got their GC yet!
Among all the EB2 ROW approved, only 5 of them have PD later than Oct.2010.
My research conclusion is that:
1. Basically ROW EB2 with PD later than January 2011 have very slim chance
to get their GC in FY 2011.
2. ROW EB2 with PD between Oct.2010 and Dec.2010 will have some chance to
get their GC in FY 2011, but it's 50% only.
current
and... 阅读全帖 |
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s**g
发帖数: 709 | 24 我们跟律师交流,得到以下回复:
A. At bottom, our argument is that DOS and CIS violated the statute
written by Congress when it allocated visa numbers in 2008 and 2009. It is
important to note that this is not challenged in the court’s decision; in
other words, for purposes of appeal, it can be assumed the DOS and CIS
violated the law in 2008 and 2009. The question is how this violation of
law can be remedied. Basically, the court’s argument is that even though
the law was violated, the court cannot do ... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 25 Full analysis see this link:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/04/people-who-missed
People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 - Analysis of EB- India and China
Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small per... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 26 New Predictions - Last Updated - 01 May 2011
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/02/prediction-for-eb
China
Optimistic: 6/1/2007
Realistic: 3/8/2007
Worst : 1/1/2007
Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date movement for Fiscal Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on Trackitt for EB2 c... 阅读全帖 |
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H*V
发帖数: 2770 | 27 dream ba
Year 2011. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below)
which is done based on available data i.e. visa statistics recently released
for CY 2010, PERM data published by DOL for CY 2010, latest trend on
Trackitt for EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for
each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below.
This data is further used to calculate spillover that would b: e available
for EB2 category. Dates are predicted based on vi... 阅读全帖 |
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M*******t
发帖数: 513 | 28 终于看完了关于EB3C案子的所有文件,终于有时间来说一下.
关于这个EB3C的案子,想问问老猪,(你们敢不敢告它种族歧视?)
如果不敢,还是干脆放弃算了.
原因很明显,对于这个EB3C的诉状,被告的显而易见的错误主要有一点,那就是: "During
FY 2008 and FY 2009, the Defendants violated INA §201(a)(2) by using more
than 27% of the available visas during the first three quarters of the
fiscal year."
其他的,你说它浪费名额了么?没有.它犯了什么其他明显错误了么?没有.但是,它歧视了
.这你还得做些功课,加以说明才行.
如果你们敢告,就先做好下面的功课: |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 29 From the Indian website:
The tables represent the FY (October to September) that PERM applications
with Priority Date in a Calendar Year were Certified.
As an example, say you wanted to know the number of PERM for Indian
applicants with a PD in 2007 Certified in FY2008. First go to the table for
India, then the FY2008 column. Go down the column until you reach 2007. The
resulting figure, 8,335, is the number of PERM with a PD of 2007 Certified
in FY2008 for Indian applicants.
If you wanted to kn... 阅读全帖 |
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k********o
发帖数: 1139 | 30 从http://blog.lucidtext.com找到的。去年一共批了1,885个EB5。不过，根据该网站的另一个统计，FY2011 Q1已经批了1,421个，所以预计FY 2011总数应该远大于FY2010，估计有5,000多吧。那么FY2011可用的EB5剩余应该是4,000-5,000。
EB-5 Visa Usage by Country 2010
February 10, 2011 by Suzanne (www.lucidtext.com) Leave a Comment
The U.S. Department of State has published their final visa usage statistics
for FY2010. A total of 1,885 EB-5 visas were issued, with the following
countries making up the Top 10:
1.People’s Republic of China (772 or 40.9%)
2.Republic of South Korea (29... 阅读全帖 |
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w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 31 From comments on the blog at http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/
The author says:
Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD
October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting
fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send
such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think
their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily
qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news tha... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 32 An Indian Guru said:
Nice summary SKpanda. I think #2 is more likely. #1 is next & #3 is least
likely.
The reason being USCIS and DOS do not have such fine operations to move
dates in a fine manner such as #3. So that leaves #1 & #2. #1 is a bit
extreme. So #2 is more likely.
Originally Posted by skpanda
There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me
are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once
their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A pos... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 33 Totoally there are more than 72k Indian PERM and 11k China PERM from FY 2008
to FY 2011. I estimate the total demand will be 100k from this data.
CHINA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------- 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------- 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ------------- 5 ----- 5,905
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 6... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 34 4842 people with PD 2007 were approved in FY 2007.
In FY 2008,2009,2010,2011, many more PERM got approved (mainly due to audit)
, although they were submitted in 2007.
You need to add all those numbers. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 35 1. PWMB demand will be the key. I believe they will try to process all the
PWMB demand first. I estimate around 1000 China EB2 has PD earlier than
August 2007 and missed the boat. The first quarter will focus on the cases
between 05/2007 to 08/2007. Then they will move forward to approve the cases
between 08/2007-10/2007, another 1000 demand, etc........
2. They will definitely pre-adjudicate all the cases next FY, but they may
only approve the people with earlier PD in 2007 in the first 3 quart... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 36 I agree partially.
The other reason is this:
In 2007, 2008 and 2009, they received tons of EB1 cases and those cases got
accumulated. In 2009 and 2010, they had to use full visa numbers to solve
EB1 accumulation. Last year they almost cleaned up the EB1 accumulation.
For FY 2010, the spill over was lower than expected because of the EB1
accumulation issue. Finally they cleaned up EB1 accumulations last FY.
This year they spared many visas from EB1, partly because there is some
delay of EB1, part... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 37 The whole purpose of this topic was to prove that the demand in this winter
is lower than my original estimation.
There won't be too many approvable cases in Q1 of FY 2012. It does not make
any difference if they retrogress the PD or not.
Very few people can be processed in Q1 of FY 2012. Most of the PWMB cases
will be approved in this December of next spring.
2
Dec |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 38 In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.
I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.
I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicati
In May 2010, a Phillipi... 阅读全帖 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 39 看了很多关于demand的分析，觉得大家分析得都太细致了，以至于没有反映出全局的
trend。我根据perm data做了一个粗糙版分析。
Assumptions:
1. NIW的申请数量每年大致不变（07除外）。NIW似乎和economic cycle的关系并不是
太大，因为是自己凭条件申请，除非USCIS的评判标准大幅变化或者美国出产PHD水平大
幅波动，这个assumption还是比较justified的。
2. Perm的批准大约需要大半年左右。这个就比较tricky了，因为粗糙分析，我大致
assume FY year批准的都是PD为calendar year的。考虑到有些perm会被audit，有些
perm会比较快，所以这个assumption marginly correct。
3. Perm的批准数量和demand之间有直接关系，我考虑ratio应该差不多。
conclusion:
(Y/FY) Demand Perm(II+III) Ratio
2005 4084 3087 1.32
2006 8581 6845 ... 阅读全帖 |
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j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 40 “Perm的批准大约需要大半年左右。这个就比较tricky了，因为粗糙分析，我大致
assume FY year批准的都是PD为calendar year的。考虑到有些perm会被audit，有些
perm会比较快，所以这个assumption marginly correct。”
这个好像搞反了吧，你是说2008 FY批准的PERM，PD大都是2008 CY的？但实际情况是10
/2007-3/2008 （FY2008第一，二季）批准的PERM，PD大都是2007 CY的。 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 41 No, it only took 2 weeks to approve PERM in FY 2007. They started auditing
after FY 2007 and the PERM process became longer and longer. Most of the
cases approved in 2008 should have PD 2008. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 42 I think we have at least 20k left for August and September. In August EB2 China and India will use 2.5K and EB3 will use 1-2k. In August and September EB1 and EB2 ROW will use 5k-10k (really depends on whether USCIS expedite the EB1 and EB2 ROW).
I estimate we will get at least 5k-10k spillover in the last month of this
FY.
It's very likely it can reach July 2007 by this FY.
Whether Mr.O wants to move PD into 2008 Q1/Q2 really depends on whether he
realized the importance of building a pipeline ... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 43 if the next VB can cross July, it will be much better for china-eb2.
totally we have 1500 pending cases with PD July 2007. if the next VB can
cover it, we still get some chance to move into 2008 in the Q1/Q2 of FY 2012
. If the next VB can not cover July 2007, we will get stuck to July 2007 for
at least 2 quarters of FY 2012 because 1500 will consume half year quota.
it's critical to cross July 2007 in the next VB. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 44 瞎写了一下，你再改改。
Recently the USCIS published the data and statistics regarding the
employment based green card visa usage in the first three quarters in FY
2011. We found that the DOS visa office failed to assign enough visa numbers
to the employment based green card applicants in the first three quarters
in FY 2011. The Immigration Law INA 201 specifies that the employment based
green card has a minimum annual quota of 140,000, and not to exceed in any
of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 ... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 45 修改了加上了family based的数据加强对比性。
Recently the USCIS published the data and statistics regarding the
employment based green card visa usage in the first three quarters in FY
2011. We found that the DOS visa office failed to assign enough visa numbers
to the employment based green card applicants in the first three quarters
in FY 2011. The Immigration Law INA 201 specifies that the employment based
green card has a minimum annual quota of 140,000, and not to exceed in any
of the first 3 quarters of any... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 46 Mr.CO always put this kind of crap into VB. We saw this kind of words
several times.
I suspect what happened is: Q4 of FY 2011 approved too much EB1/EB2 ROW. Now
they don't have much demand from these folks. At the same time many folks
sent him messages about the low consumption of visas in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011
. Now he wants to meet the 27% goal.
If we can see a large of number of approvals of EB2 C&I in next month, that
means he changed his old method of visa assignment. In the past, he always... 阅读全帖 |
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d****n
发帖数: 301 | 47 This is a good point.
This is what I think, please correct me if i am wrong.
1. 27% will let both EB2I and EB2C benefit:
they will get SO early in the year instead of the last 2 months of each FY.
USCIS can have even work load distribute over the year, instead of have to
approve thousands of hundreds of cases in the last 2 months.
There will be less waste in the end of FY.
2. To eventually move EB2C forward, we should still resolve 中印捆绑。 |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 49 I sent him another email. I'm still trying to convince him that there'll be
more spillover in FY 2012 than in FY 2011 because of the following reasons:
(1) Fewer ROW demand due to delay in PERM filings with DOL
(2) Fewer EB2IC demand with PD in 2008 and 2009 due to layoffs and economic
recessions
(3) Fewer EB1 due to bad economic situation in 2012
If he is convinced, he should keep moving the VB forward, maybe even to your
priority date. |
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p*******8
发帖数: 126 | 50 # of China PERMs:
FY 2008: 3328
FY 2009: 2112 |
|
