g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 1 我认为明天可能不要指望打涨。
市场deleveraging加全球范围的risk asset重估。靠什么涨? 靠XLU,XLP,XLU这些老弱
病残上？ |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 2 到那个时候市场的主线就是deleveraging US Dollar based carry trade
看到日元了吗？日元的今天就是美元的明天 |
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 3 停不下来.
卖楼卖儿卖女. 新一波的margin call引发的deleverage. |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 5 saving下降， credit card debt, auto debt, student loan 下降
consumer spending 开始上升, 开始有实力消费大宗商品
retail 作为leading indicator 可关注
disclaimer:
Long ARO (加仓了，还是深水下)
Long SVU (有盈利) |
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c******e
发帖数: 1581 | 6 “Long ARO (加仓了，还是深水下)”
ARO and AEO 非常可能是底。但 ANF 相比可能好些，其海外销售比例大，受益于低美
元汇率。 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 7 不是value 型的啊
growth型的搞了LVS |
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R******n
发帖数: 687 | 8 You are wrong. The bubble we have now is bigger and more serious than 2000.
Tech bubble is just an inventory/cyclical issue, now we are having a credit
bubble that will take years to deleverage. |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 9 We have remained bullish over the last ten weeks; however that doesn’t mean
we have sat idly back 100% allocated to equities, riding the S&P back and
forth within the 100 point congestion zone. We remain bullish as the market
passed an important test last Friday by settling well above 1204.00 (1219.
00 to be
exact). 1204.00 represented the upper region of our congestion zone (1114.00
– 1204.00) which captured 90% of price action for the last 11 weeks.
Regardless of the upside break-out, for the... 阅读全帖 |
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u****d
发帖数: 23938 | 10 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zijing (紫晶) 于 (Thu Aug 18 15:33:48 2011, 美东) 提到:
在我对股市有清晰记忆以来，除了２００８年一次，OE前的周四打破的OPTION平衡导致
周五继续大跌外，其他无一例外周四的暴跌跟着的是周五的大涨。这一次呢？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
wuyiwuxi (无依无系) 于 (Thu Aug 18 15:34:24 2011, 美东) 提到:
re, hope it will be
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
guanjiu (酒倌副主席) 于 (Thu Aug 18 15:35:20 2011, 美东) 提到:
我的研究表明，这个是买入良鸡！
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
GreenRS (Robin) 于 (Thu Aug 18 15:35:54 2011, 美东) 提... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 11 "出来混，总是要还的。。。"
希望这几张图可以挽救几头死牛 |
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G*********c
发帖数: 47 | 12 Where did you get those charts? From your company? |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 15 ECB as Lender of Last Resort Would End Crisis for Silva
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank can stop the spread of the
continent’s financial crisis with “foreseeable, unlimited” purchases of
Italian and other government bonds, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva
said.
“The European Central Bank has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its
mission and should be prepared for foreseeable intervention in the secondary
market, not as the central bank has done up to now,” Cavaco S... 阅读全帖 |
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Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 16 If liquidity is indeed increased, or promised to be increased, we should see
an easing on LIBOR. Eruodollar borrowing cost should get cheap. But it's not
happening.
The action by central banks, in my understanding, is to provide cushions to
the banks so that they can maintain their liquidity at lower cost. The
deleveraging will keep going. Long term trend (for the coming months) may
not be changed.
Da Niu make some comments? |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 17 No question about that.
在全球Deleveraging的大环境下，如果没有QE,结果就只有
Deflation and Depression. |
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t*****s
发帖数: 2933 | 18 美元开始世界范围的deleverage鸟，前段时间是欧洲开始，现在是Emerging market.
Fed出手帮欧洲，管不鸟Emerging market鸟。。看看中国的美金cash剩余就知道鸟。。。 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 19 希望大家坐下来好好读一读各大公司的年报以及他们的CEO的致辞中对新一年的展望。
大部分都相当的保守甚至消极。（请听听Siemans的，especially）。这是corporates
所说的。
再看看他们所做的：BOA plan to cut 3 Billion cost！再请想一想有多少blue chips
自从2008后倒下了或接近倒下了？Boarders，Kodak，JC penny，Sears，RIM，Saab。
这个名单还会越来越长。全球消费者和政府的deleveraging能带来的只有contraction
和公司的破产。就算QE3来了又能怎么样，只要一停止印钱还不是又开始暴跌！
Greenspan年代的10年虚假繁荣的欠账08,09年两年就还完了吗？任何危机就像球赛一样
，既有上半场，也有下半场。中期展望绝对的bearish。
are |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 20 Liquidity + strong demand will lead to prosperity.
Liquidity + weak demand will only lead to stagnation.
The fundamental question to US economy is DEMAND but not liquidity.
Deleveraging will drag down the demand for years. By re-engineering from Ben
's policy recommendations, I believe the demand won't pick up before 2014!
That is what the market should really read into! |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 21 Deleveraging in US and Europe will take a long time. Spending cut will slow
the economics growth, so they can not cut too deep.
The easier way out is to print some money in the process, so some hard asset
is still the place to be in the next several years.
US and Europe don't have any choice but print some money in the next several
years. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 22 现在还有一种看法, deleveraging 还有很长的路要走。 |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 23 My 2 cents:
WNR accumulated a lot of cash thanks to the profitable spreads.
It has been reducing debts while returning values to investors. These are
all very helpful to its valuation especially in deleveraging macro env.
The risks are:
Volatile spreads will be translated to volatile prices. Hence, some
divergence on target prices, which are 25-30 a pop right now. So it doesn't
quite surprise me much people take some profits around $25.
But the positive momentum is still in play as long as sprea... 阅读全帖 |
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O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 24 世界经济最大的风险就是中国deleverage
看看工程机械每月40%的同比下滑速度就知道了 这才刚刚开始
所有产业都过剩50%以上 |
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O**l
发帖数: 12923 | 25 发电量自己统计的值只增长了3% 煤炭堆成山卖不掉
造船订单下降90% 工程机械下降40%家电下降20% 钢铁水泥都是全行业要破产
就这deleverage还没开始 房价还没开始跌 |
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a**i
发帖数: 608 | 26 Marc Faber:Prepare for a Massive Market Meltdown
Published: Tuesday, 13 Nov 2012 | 7:54 AM ET
The markets are going to go into meltdown soon, so expect stocks to lose 20
percent of their value, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom
report told CNBC on Tuesday.
“I don’t think markets are going down because of Greece, I don’t think
markets are going down because of the ‘fiscal cliff’ — because there won
’t be a ‘fiscal cliff,’ ” Faber told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The
market is going down be... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******0
发帖数: 201 | 28 That's definitely one way to deleverage among others. |
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m****e
发帖数: 85 | 29 (1) 美国经济从2008年后进入了一个 deleveraging 的过程。实际上 QE 使得很多公司
的 balance sheet 增强了，但是公司并没有进行进一步的投资，所以通胀实际上不高
。一个很好的例子就是APPL. 另一方面，中国发展速度明显下降，这使得commodity 价
格无法上扬.
(2) 美联储通过open market operation买入债券从而增加货币供应。通胀是否出现取
决于很多因素，并不是增加货币供应就一定马上通胀。如果市场没信心deflation也有
可能。
的？ |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 30 2008年开始的deleveraging摧毁了太多的流动性，有一段时间银行基本都不
给贷款了。QE是把流动性慢慢加回来，其实现在还远远没到2008年的水平呢。 |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 31 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1826892-alpha-natural-resources
这文章的结论是：
Conclusion
Domestically, though the attraction of natgas as a substitute for coal
appears very threatening to the industry, capacity for the burning of natgas
by the power industry is quite limited in the US.
Internationally, the case for commodities rising in price due to insatiable
demand from emerging markets applies to the coal industry as well. As the
media and public sector opine about the need for cleaner energy, the... 阅读全帖 |
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u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 32 SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- When it comes to the rebound in U.S. banking stocks,
investors, bankers and many Wall Street analysts alike seem to have
embraced Oliver Goldsmith's advice: "Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you
no lies."
But the much-heralded improvements in the fortune of banks may be
misleading.
Federal Reserve policies, especially low interest rates and large liquidity
flows (from central banks through quantitative easing ("QE"), have
supported bank earnings to a large degree. Low s... 阅读全帖 |
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c********a
发帖数: 111 | 33 If you compare CHK and SWN, they did follow each other's trend very well
recently. So the recent down trend is just the average performance of the
medium cap shale gas sectors. After Aubrey’s time, CHK has deleveraged and
now they have a lot of cash in hand with a very good D/E ratio. Also 40% of
their production in 2015 is hedged by swaps and collar derivatives. So I
would say there is little chance that CHK will go bankrupt. |
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s*****o
发帖数: 459 | 34 好像去年a股上涨实体经济没有开始下滑似的
好像2009年美股反弹，经济立马在半年就恢复了
deleveraging就是这样，跌！再跌！暴跌！可能跟2008年的情况一样
何况现在是部分散户被平仓，估计70%以上股民都没受到影响，现在也就是相当于4月的
点位，机构更是毫发无损 |
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c********a
发帖数: 111 | 36 是的，面对这种信贷危机以及泡沫破碎的时候不能立即紧缩，得在保持适当宽松的条件
下，慢慢deleverage。日本也算个反面例子了。 |
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r******o
发帖数: 1530 | 37 有没有systematic risk？如果有，是什么？
这几年已经deleverage了，低油价并没有刺激消费，也就是更多的钱被省下来了，一般
人的口袋其实更深了，市场会有pull back，会有动荡，跌个20% 30%不是没有，基本把
中国的红利抹去救就不多了，会再crash一次嘛？个人不觉得。 |
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s******1
发帖数: 4987 | 38 虽然一直是看牛的，但是目前几个板块的跌法完全看不到任何支撑，tech接下来一波血
跌的话，怕是SPY要到175，LONG spy的话可以考虑short QQQ对冲一下 |
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C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 39 别对冲了。直接一键清空得了。今年还想hold SPY赚钱有点wishful thinking。 |
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z**********3
发帖数: 11979 | 40 去杠杆 信贷减少
Fed应该QE印钱防止通货紧缩
钱印多了要提高利率防止通货膨胀
CPI作为拉氏指数 往往夸大通胀 fed走钢丝看下一步啦 |
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a*i
发帖数: 497 | 44 现在中国经济最大的问题是leverage 太高。 只有靠股市和债市，才能deleverage
现在政府印钱这么多， 都跑到了房市。 政府一定会想办法疏导到股市里去。
大家觉得呢？ 请反驳 |
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L***6
发帖数: 8307 | 45 你没有讲清楚疯狂到崩盘之间的transition 漏掉了关键
就是每次央行推高股市和GDP以后 都误以为自己的monetary policy起到了改善经济基
本面的作用 误以为实体经济真正好起来了 就开始deleverage 开始收紧货币政策 开始
加息 开始收紧money supply 加强credit control 放任本国货币升值 结果每次这样干
了以后 不多久金融泡沫就崩溃 这主要是说美国了
美国60年代开始就走上下坡路 因为欧洲日本战后重建完成 对美国构成强大竞争 美国
货不好卖了 因为贵 质量差 玩不过欧洲和日本 所以被迫71年放弃金本位 美元开始长
期贬值周期 相当于商品降价和别人竞争 同时开始大量举债 鼓励政府和民间的金融高
杠杆 原来只有富人有资格申请的信用卡和房贷 普通人也可以享受 后来就是各种车贷
和学生贷 因为竞争力下滑 加上人口增长 女性加入就业大军 劳动力供给太多 生产力
提高的慢 所以不能涨实际工资 只是靠debt去拉动经济 印美元 通过卖美债给中国日本
去变相出口美元 换人家的products
我觉得Peter Schiff预测的会成真，就是Fed没有... 阅读全帖 |
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f******d
发帖数: 2394 | 46 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: fireroad (地狱之路), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 美犹真是个极度短视的民族
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 19 13:18:52 2016, 美东)
这个美国靠二战走出大萧条的说法也是共产党的说法，目的当然是为了证明计划经济的
优越性。其实，多看看书就知道，Leverage Up 之后必然是Deleverage， 这个过程最
少10年到15年。按照美国现在的情况，因为联储不断QE，诱导中国资产泡沫，达到水淹
七军的效果，美国的去杠杆化进程可能要加倍到20到30年，从2000年算起。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 47 The low interest rate and abundant liquidity since the 2008 crisis may have
created a lot of cheap money and credit for the stock market. Leverage could
be very high. If the yield rises, there will be pressure for deleveraging
and cash out from the stock market to clean up the balance sheet in order to
reduce the risk. And probably harder to raise new money to invest in stock,
although some reports say there are a lot of cash waiting outside of the
market too, not sure if it is true.
And higher ... 阅读全帖 |
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g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 48 downside. deleverage. LOL |
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P********6
发帖数: 709 | 49 I agree with you that the trend will be up.
It's not an exciting quarter or month.
To look better than it is,
(1) Some MM need to realize some gains. Otherwise clients are not happy.
(2) Some MM need to deleverage by cashing out. Otherwise clients will be
worried. |
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N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | 50 也许去年12月大盘已见底，个股不好说。
作者的观点就是Fed 大量印钱，beautiful deleveraging |
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