T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 1 其实理由哪止三个--
首先，当贷款利率低的时候，房价一般都是偏高的，而贷款利率高的时候，房价往往比
较低。为什么不用我多说。如今无论是 Fed Fund Rate 还是十年、三十年的 Treasury
Rate 都处在历史最低点，只要利率攀升，房价要自然下跌。
其次，银行把钱借给买房人之后，他们是不愿意把那张 IOU 的贷款书拿在手上的，大
部分的 mortgages 都是要被转手卖掉的，原因嘛很简单，降低风险。自从金融危机之
后，甭管是银行也好，投行也罢，也无论是共同基金还是对冲基金，谁都不再对购买
mortgage 感兴趣，现在 mortgage 的唯一买主就是美国政府，这也就是为什么到目前
为止，长期房贷的利率还这么低的直接原因。一旦美国政府停止购买 mortgage，贷款
利率就会直线攀升，后果嘛，不言而寓。
如果这还不能说服你，那再给你讲一件不久前奥巴做的事－－我们的总统大人善心一发
，签署了一条为失业人员降低房贷的法案。按照总统大人的逻辑，如果你一直都是一个
按时付款的人，我们不能因为你的失业而让你和你的家人流离失所。多么仁慈、高尚的
心啊！只是总统大人没有想到，在这个方程 |
a***o
发帖数: 3734 | 2 你忘了inflation， obama印了这么多钞票，等经济回暖，流动性增加，老虎终归是要
出笼的。 |
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 3 This is the best time to buy a home.
Prices are low, rates are low. Happens once every thirty years.
You just cant time to the very bottom. Either you buy too early or too late
. We bought multiple rental properties. It went down 10% after closing and
now it is up 10%. When it is cheaper to own than rent, jump in, it is now.
Eventually home prices will move up. When they do, they move 5-10%, you
thought huh, it was 400k a month ago, why shall I pay 420K? And why shall I
pay 475? It does
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: 其实理由哪止三个--
: 首先，当贷款利率低的时候，房价一般都是偏高的，而贷款利率高的时候，房价往往比
: 较低。为什么不用我多说。如今无论是 Fed Fund Rate 还是十年、三十年的 Treasury
: Rate 都处在历史最低点，只要利率攀升，房价要自然下跌。
: 其次，银行把钱借给买房人之后，他们是不愿意把那张 IOU 的贷款书拿在手上的，大
: 部分的 mortgages 都是要被转手卖掉的，原因嘛很简单，降低风险。自从金融危机之
: 后，甭管是银行也好，投行也罢，也无论是共同基金还是对冲基金，谁都不再对购买
: mortgage 感兴趣，现在 mortgage 的唯一买主就是美国政府，这也就是为什么到目前
: 为止，长期房贷的利率还这么低的直接原因。一旦美国政府停止购买 mortgage，贷款
: 利率就会直线攀升，后果嘛，不言而寓。
|
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 4 We will have deflation like Japan for years to come.
Yes, money has been printed. But the money printed sits at the printer. It
does not make any difference to the world outside the printing factory.
I am saying that because the money is not being put into circulation. The
biggest channels are the mortgage loans, or company loans. Who is borrowing
? Even they do, they borrow less.
【在 a***o 的大作中提到】
: 你忘了inflation， obama印了这么多钞票，等经济回暖，流动性增加，老虎终归是要
: 出笼的。
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 5 Good luck with your rental, hope you can make 3% yield.
Bye Bye, down payment!
late
and
now.
I
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: This is the best time to buy a home.
: Prices are low, rates are low. Happens once every thirty years.
: You just cant time to the very bottom. Either you buy too early or too late
: . We bought multiple rental properties. It went down 10% after closing and
: now it is up 10%. When it is cheaper to own than rent, jump in, it is now.
: Eventually home prices will move up. When they do, they move 5-10%, you
: thought huh, it was 400k a month ago, why shall I pay 420K? And why shall I
: pay 475? It does
|
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 6 Whats the alternative? 1% in the bank? Junk bonds give you 10%. But they
are called junk bonds for a good reason. You cant put all eggs in one basket
. When an asset class is trashed, that is when you make money. Home
appreciation takes time. The yield is higher with depreciation, tax write-
offs. Eventually, rent will go up, then the 'yield' will be higher. Of
course, I could be wrong. But I am saying this with good-hearted intention.
You are picking the wrong fight. I am not saying
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: Good luck with your rental, hope you can make 3% yield.
: Bye Bye, down payment!
:
: late
: and
: now.
: I
|
b*****t
发帖数: 3928 | 7
left. 5 yrs is like 25% of our lives. Why live in an apartment for 5 yrs?
Kind of agree this. I am happily living in a house for 4 years, even though
the house price is down from what I paid 4 years ago, so what? I am not in a
rush to sell it anyway, I bought the house to live in.
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: Whats the alternative? 1% in the bank? Junk bonds give you 10%. But they
: are called junk bonds for a good reason. You cant put all eggs in one basket
: . When an asset class is trashed, that is when you make money. Home
: appreciation takes time. The yield is higher with depreciation, tax write-
: offs. Eventually, rent will go up, then the 'yield' will be higher. Of
: course, I could be wrong. But I am saying this with good-hearted intention.
: You are picking the wrong fight. I am not saying
|
p*****y
发帖数: 221 | |
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 9
if you don't actually own a rental, or actively involved in rental market,
please don't make claims about rental.
my rental units (>10) average 20-25% return un-leaveraged. it is getting
very difficult to find good ones though.
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: Good luck with your rental, hope you can make 3% yield.
: Bye Bye, down payment!
:
: late
: and
: now.
: I
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 10 Making 1% on bank deposit is much better than losing 20% on the falling
housing market. We haven't got out of the consequences from last round of
irresponsible housing maniac, and you're trying to talk people into it again
? Of course, you want rich people to bear all the downside and you simply
enjoy the upside, how convenient!
BTW, you won't screw me, not even close.
they
basket
intention.
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: Whats the alternative? 1% in the bank? Junk bonds give you 10%. But they
: are called junk bonds for a good reason. You cant put all eggs in one basket
: . When an asset class is trashed, that is when you make money. Home
: appreciation takes time. The yield is higher with depreciation, tax write-
: offs. Eventually, rent will go up, then the 'yield' will be higher. Of
: course, I could be wrong. But I am saying this with good-hearted intention.
: You are picking the wrong fight. I am not saying
|
|
|
B*D
发帖数: 5016 | 11 那么高回报？
还不是杠杆
哪个城市？ 德州的?
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: if you don't actually own a rental, or actively involved in rental market,
: please don't make claims about rental.
: my rental units (>10) average 20-25% return un-leaveraged. it is getting
: very difficult to find good ones though.
|
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 12 房地产周期最起码10年，这downturn才刚开始。就算不跌了，也不会涨，呆滞你8年，
把你的钱都套在房地产里，等8年后，你的房价没变，通货膨胀让你的本金购买力少一
半。不如现在找机会投资别的东西，比如金子，金子两年内肯定翻倍
late
and
now.
I
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: This is the best time to buy a home.
: Prices are low, rates are low. Happens once every thirty years.
: You just cant time to the very bottom. Either you buy too early or too late
: . We bought multiple rental properties. It went down 10% after closing and
: now it is up 10%. When it is cheaper to own than rent, jump in, it is now.
: Eventually home prices will move up. When they do, they move 5-10%, you
: thought huh, it was 400k a month ago, why shall I pay 420K? And why shall I
: pay 475? It does
|
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 13 He got 10. He probably bought them a while back. No wonder 20% return.
Thats what I mean, in 10 yrs, when rents go up 30% from now, it is like
heaven on earth.
【在 B*D 的大作中提到】
: 那么高回报？
: 还不是杠杆
: 哪个城市？ 德州的?
|
s****k
发帖数: 778 | 14 去年上半年，所有人都说湾区好区的房价在下半年要腰斩，结果呢？
今年初包括现在，所有人都说房价还要下降，但我所见之处房价到处在往上涨。我所在
的地区可以说是foreclosure的重灾区，房价自09年4月触底后已经至少涨了20%了。
所以我个人觉得，各种分析都没有意思，等待买房也可以永无止境。如果你真有刚需想
买个房自住或投资，why waste your time to do such useless analysis? |
x**********6
发帖数: 1240 | 15 If you do the calculation, 1% increase in interest rate will require 7%
decrease in housing price so that you will no lose money because the
interest rate increase.
In real life, with the inflation coming soon, the interest rate will
definitely increase by 2-3% percent. But there is no way the house price
will reduce by 14 or 21%....
Conclusion: now you should buy...jump before interest rate increases and
inflation comes in.. |
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 16 california crashed around 89. And in 93, the price started to firm and
steadily went up. Then, in 03-06, it did a spike up. Prices started to
fall in 07. It has been 3 yrs. More or less, the price reset is over. Yes
, it can go down 20%. But it could go up 20% too. You cant time it. At
the peak, the risk is high, whereas at the trough, its low.
When mortgage is $5000, mortgage rate goes from 6 to 7.5% (20% increase),
you will need 9000 more a year. When mortgage is $2500 (low home pri
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 房地产周期最起码10年，这downturn才刚开始。就算不跌了，也不会涨，呆滞你8年，
: 把你的钱都套在房地产里，等8年后，你的房价没变，通货膨胀让你的本金购买力少一
: 半。不如现在找机会投资别的东西，比如金子，金子两年内肯定翻倍
:
: late
: and
: now.
: I
|
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 17 没有买房的credit，能让房价回弹? 等这波过去了，银行再没完没了的往市场上放房子
，还得跌
【在 s****k 的大作中提到】
: 去年上半年，所有人都说湾区好区的房价在下半年要腰斩，结果呢？
: 今年初包括现在，所有人都说房价还要下降，但我所见之处房价到处在往上涨。我所在
: 的地区可以说是foreclosure的重灾区，房价自09年4月触底后已经至少涨了20%了。
: 所以我个人觉得，各种分析都没有意思，等待买房也可以永无止境。如果你真有刚需想
: 买个房自住或投资，why waste your time to do such useless analysis?
|
m*****1
发帖数: 2546 | 18 the 4th reason, some people are waiting............
Treasury
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: 其实理由哪止三个--
: 首先，当贷款利率低的时候，房价一般都是偏高的，而贷款利率高的时候，房价往往比
: 较低。为什么不用我多说。如今无论是 Fed Fund Rate 还是十年、三十年的 Treasury
: Rate 都处在历史最低点，只要利率攀升，房价要自然下跌。
: 其次，银行把钱借给买房人之后，他们是不愿意把那张 IOU 的贷款书拿在手上的，大
: 部分的 mortgages 都是要被转手卖掉的，原因嘛很简单，降低风险。自从金融危机之
: 后，甭管是银行也好，投行也罢，也无论是共同基金还是对冲基金，谁都不再对购买
: mortgage 感兴趣，现在 mortgage 的唯一买主就是美国政府，这也就是为什么到目前
: 为止，长期房贷的利率还这么低的直接原因。一旦美国政府停止购买 mortgage，贷款
: 利率就会直线攀升，后果嘛，不言而寓。
|
e***z
发帖数: 7126 | 19 不会赌钱不是你的错。呵呵
就算你不会赌钱，买房子自上枷锁也不是办法。
they
basket
intention.
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: Whats the alternative? 1% in the bank? Junk bonds give you 10%. But they
: are called junk bonds for a good reason. You cant put all eggs in one basket
: . When an asset class is trashed, that is when you make money. Home
: appreciation takes time. The yield is higher with depreciation, tax write-
: offs. Eventually, rent will go up, then the 'yield' will be higher. Of
: course, I could be wrong. But I am saying this with good-hearted intention.
: You are picking the wrong fight. I am not saying
|
h*****a
发帖数: 871 | 20 在LA房市上混过一段时间的人这样说，你的理论是理想化的，实事上是洛杉矶的房子尤
其是老中区基本已经涨回原来的价钱
Treasury
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: 其实理由哪止三个--
: 首先，当贷款利率低的时候，房价一般都是偏高的，而贷款利率高的时候，房价往往比
: 较低。为什么不用我多说。如今无论是 Fed Fund Rate 还是十年、三十年的 Treasury
: Rate 都处在历史最低点，只要利率攀升，房价要自然下跌。
: 其次，银行把钱借给买房人之后，他们是不愿意把那张 IOU 的贷款书拿在手上的，大
: 部分的 mortgages 都是要被转手卖掉的，原因嘛很简单，降低风险。自从金融危机之
: 后，甭管是银行也好，投行也罢，也无论是共同基金还是对冲基金，谁都不再对购买
: mortgage 感兴趣，现在 mortgage 的唯一买主就是美国政府，这也就是为什么到目前
: 为止，长期房贷的利率还这么低的直接原因。一旦美国政府停止购买 mortgage，贷款
: 利率就会直线攀升，后果嘛，不言而寓。
|
|
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 21
5th Banks are still hiding an ocean of foreclosed properties they dare
not bring onto the market.
6th 2nd wave of Option ARM explosion is coming that'd drive the more
houses onto the market to make it cheaper.
7th Government wants you to take on overpriced properties so they can tax
you. You'd better be smarter than falling for that.
8th Basically you buy what government is trying to suppress and dump what
they are trying to propping up.
【在 m*****1 的大作中提到】
: the 4th reason, some people are waiting............
:
: Treasury
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 22 Like the last one - long gold, short house.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: 5th Banks are still hiding an ocean of foreclosed properties they dare
: not bring onto the market.
: 6th 2nd wave of Option ARM explosion is coming that'd drive the more
: houses onto the market to make it cheaper.
: 7th Government wants you to take on overpriced properties so they can tax
: you. You'd better be smarter than falling for that.
: 8th Basically you buy what government is trying to suppress and dump what
: they are trying to propping up.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 23
I think the average house price will hit 50-70 OZ of gold when it finally
bottoms. No one should waste a penny on real estate now unless it's real
high way robbery deal.
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: Like the last one - long gold, short house.
|
h****6
发帖数: 229 | 24 Honestly, Japan is not a good example. Japan is export directed and their
market depends on consumers in US. On the other hand, US controls everything.
They will learn a lesson from Japan. The US government will never let
deflation happend. They will not let the housing market crash. Government
will definately behind housing market. The government will print, borrow
money, press China, do whatever it can to cause small inflation. Don't even
think severe deflation will ever happen. If housing cra |
x********u
发帖数: 1322 | |
x********u
发帖数: 1322 | |
z****o
发帖数: 2057 | 27 我们这里好学区的房子，价格一直在稳步提高，近半年看房的感觉 |
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 28 Sharp.
Heroes think alike. :-)
Californian home prices has gone up 10% already from the bottom. It is
exactly what I was talking about. You wait, 5% higher, and wait again 5%
lower. Now you are happy, think DrNewbie is all BS and luckily you didnt
buy. Then 10% higher. Rate is up to 5.5%. Huh, you wait, rate up to 6%.
You think price will reset lower. And it did, and rate lower to 5.75%. You
convinced yourself. Lets wait. Next thing you know rate gone to 6.25%,
home prices up 10%. Th
【在 x********u 的大作中提到】
: 自住的，可以买了。投资的，再等一会。
|
s****k
发帖数: 778 | 29 我到不知道银行还有多少房子没有放出来到市场上，我只知道我们这里的inventory不
是一般的低。以前满大街都是 for sale 的牌子，现在整个城市也找不到几个。仅有的
几个房子，那成交价我自己都不敢相信。
再说了，就算未来两年再跌20%，跌回到我买房时的水平，so what? 至少我这几年享受
到低价house了，对不？其实我还真不在乎房价是涨还是跌，反正我还是要在这个房子
里住下去的。
我很信奉这样一句话：人算不如天算，天算不如不算。不要凡事都机关算尽，这样活着
太累。 |
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 30 Yes, you are so right that we dont know much. Even the economists have two
camps. But there are always risks. There is a reverse risk. You thought
you are not taking risks if you dont buy. The risk is that you might be
priced out. That was exactly what happened. People thought the home prices
had gone up too much in China and in US. But they just kept moving up.
Till people thought you will be priced out forever. And they finally bought
and thats the top........
Home prices might go fu
【在 s****k 的大作中提到】
: 我到不知道银行还有多少房子没有放出来到市场上，我只知道我们这里的inventory不
: 是一般的低。以前满大街都是 for sale 的牌子，现在整个城市也找不到几个。仅有的
: 几个房子，那成交价我自己都不敢相信。
: 再说了，就算未来两年再跌20%，跌回到我买房时的水平，so what? 至少我这几年享受
: 到低价house了，对不？其实我还真不在乎房价是涨还是跌，反正我还是要在这个房子
: 里住下去的。
: 我很信奉这样一句话：人算不如天算，天算不如不算。不要凡事都机关算尽，这样活着
: 太累。
|
|
|
e*****e
发帖数: 212 | 31 你的理由有很多假设。 可以让事实说话。
你去zillow, trulia打进任何zip code, 就会看到year over year trend. 大城市地区
涨了15-20%，一般的地方都有5-10%的增长。加上利率在涨。 一年以后你买房子的总费
用一定会涨很多。
Treasury
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: 其实理由哪止三个--
: 首先，当贷款利率低的时候，房价一般都是偏高的，而贷款利率高的时候，房价往往比
: 较低。为什么不用我多说。如今无论是 Fed Fund Rate 还是十年、三十年的 Treasury
: Rate 都处在历史最低点，只要利率攀升，房价要自然下跌。
: 其次，银行把钱借给买房人之后，他们是不愿意把那张 IOU 的贷款书拿在手上的，大
: 部分的 mortgages 都是要被转手卖掉的，原因嘛很简单，降低风险。自从金融危机之
: 后，甭管是银行也好，投行也罢，也无论是共同基金还是对冲基金，谁都不再对购买
: mortgage 感兴趣，现在 mortgage 的唯一买主就是美国政府，这也就是为什么到目前
: 为止，长期房贷的利率还这么低的直接原因。一旦美国政府停止购买 mortgage，贷款
: 利率就会直线攀升，后果嘛，不言而寓。
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 32 Oh yeah! 2 kilo / house, high end house though, not those sub-million barns.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: I think the average house price will hit 50-70 OZ of gold when it finally
: bottoms. No one should waste a penny on real estate now unless it's real
: high way robbery deal.
|
t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 33 湾区什么地方?
【在 s****k 的大作中提到】
: 去年上半年，所有人都说湾区好区的房价在下半年要腰斩，结果呢？
: 今年初包括现在，所有人都说房价还要下降，但我所见之处房价到处在往上涨。我所在
: 的地区可以说是foreclosure的重灾区，房价自09年4月触底后已经至少涨了20%了。
: 所以我个人觉得，各种分析都没有意思，等待买房也可以永无止境。如果你真有刚需想
: 买个房自住或投资，why waste your time to do such useless analysis?
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 34 Bay area, Detroit, Michigan! Housing will sure double for 10/feet to $20/
feet!
Oh yeah, it is a two bagger!
【在 t***h 的大作中提到】
: 湾区什么地方?
|
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 35 A lot of people I know are buying 2nd, 3rd, 4th homes.
You would be surprised how many rich people there are in this country. Tax
them!!!!!
My rentals are generating positive cash flows. And my rents are incomes.
It is not income if you live in it. It is cheaper to own than rent in many
parts of the countries now.
It is a great time to buy the first home.
There will be more recessions, home crashes in the future. Trust me. Learn
to love the recessions. You make the most money out of a
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: Bay area, Detroit, Michigan! Housing will sure double for 10/feet to $20/
: feet!
: Oh yeah, it is a two bagger!
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 36 How much yield on your rental properties, seriously?
Tax
many
Learn
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: A lot of people I know are buying 2nd, 3rd, 4th homes.
: You would be surprised how many rich people there are in this country. Tax
: them!!!!!
: My rentals are generating positive cash flows. And my rents are incomes.
: It is not income if you live in it. It is cheaper to own than rent in many
: parts of the countries now.
: It is a great time to buy the first home.
: There will be more recessions, home crashes in the future. Trust me. Learn
: to love the recessions. You make the most money out of a
|
D******e
发帖数: 1085 | 37 Too many variables.
Say the rent goes up $400 in 10 yrs. The yield would be 20%. Home price
goes up 20%. Add a double to the down payment. Trust me. This is the best
time to buy a home. Say home price goes down 25% again. It is actually
great. In 10 yrs, you will save so much money that you can buy 10 of them.
And you can just retire by collecting rents........
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】
: How much yield on your rental properties, seriously?
:
: Tax
: many
: Learn
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 38 Not that complicated, just tell me, what's your (yearly rent income) / (
price you paid for house)?
I just want to know current yield. We can all guess about the future.
best
.
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: Too many variables.
: Say the rent goes up $400 in 10 yrs. The yield would be 20%. Home price
: goes up 20%. Add a double to the down payment. Trust me. This is the best
: time to buy a home. Say home price goes down 25% again. It is actually
: great. In 10 yrs, you will save so much money that you can buy 10 of them.
: And you can just retire by collecting rents........
|
