H****w
发帖数: 1632 | 1 Billy Walter and the computer group:
The Arrests
He was in the bed sleeping when the two men walked into his bedroom.
Billy
Walters sleeps in a big clean bed in Las Vegas, in a small but elaborate
home renovated to his liking, with palm trees and white flowerpots and
two
satellite dishes in the yard, and four large televisions in the den, and
a
security guard who sits just out of sight behind the shrubs across the
street. This environment was disrupted early last Jan. 5, when the two
strangers i... 阅读全帖 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 2 http://articles.latimes.com/2012/dec/31/sports/la-sp-nfl-bettin
LAS VEGAS — It wasn't the mysterious fan with a briefcase of cash who
picked this town clean during NFL gambling season.
Rather, it's been bettors wearing a new orange Peyton Manning jersey, or
Packers fans with their cheesehead hats, or Patriots fans — who loyally bet
on their favored teams each week.
The problem for Las Vegas sports books is that many popular NFL teams beat
the point spread during the regular season. And with many... 阅读全帖 |
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L****n
发帖数: 490 | 3 He posted this a long time ago. Maybe rewrite it for magazine.
This is the complete list
1. Hrmm, this K5s looks kinda good
2. I will never play anything but these 18 hands under any circumstances
3. I need to fold postflop if I don't hit a hand. And I need to fold to
pressure if I don't have a great hand.
4. Maybe I can loosen up a little bit in position. I can play more hands
because I know how to fold them postflop.
5. I need to bet my good hands hard so I can get value for them.
*** This is ... 阅读全帖 |
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p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 4 guess 200k takes both a lot of skill and luck to make for a year. I met
quite a few sports bettor when playing poker. The casino is very tough on
winning now and you can get 86ed easily if you bet big and win consistently.
The major strip casino hire a bunch of Stat Ph.d from MIT do data
analysis for them. And a lot of professional bettors buy sports betting data
from a guy called
Dr.Bob. He got stat ph.d from Berkley.
http://drbobsports.com/.
So between casino and profes... 阅读全帖 |
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c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 5 Gronkowski这一伤使拍子少让好几分
Bell said several factors will make bets more expensive for Patriots backers
than the raw matchup would dictate, including the celebrity of Brady and
Belichick and the fact that more casual bettors generally gamble on the
Super Bowl than other NFL games.
Bettors also like to see scoring - an advantage for the Patriots over the
Giants, he said.
``Usually there's going to be a premium on offense,'' Bell said.
Bell said that while the Patriots have played better all season, th... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 6 I didn't put her on that too, because there only one out can beat her,
for a 200$ pot, she probably will raise a little bit or even just call, she
just need to cut the pot odds for a A high flush draw, that only need 200$ ,
not all in.
Think it again, why she all in 1000$ , she didn't want me in the pot at all.
the bettor only have 100$ left I forgot to tell you. so the bettor may call
since he commited too much already. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 7 K8suited on big blind.
A normal image guy bet 20$ bf flop, everybody in , I called 15$ .
flp 10 8 2 two diamonds, the bettor bf flop , bet 20$ again( there are 160$
in the pot)
and 4 guys called before me, so I called my second pair.
turn is K!( not flush) , I bet 100$ in the early position , the guy follow
me instantly call. and the bettor before flop think a minute and say ALL IN!
( 280$ totally)!!!
Should I call, fold or all in ( I have 500$ left) , the caller after me have
300$ left.. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 8 1/2NL.
short handed game, 67o limped in MP.
flopped nuts straight, 5c8s9s. loose bettor put in $10, decided to catch him
big and just called. suddenly button, old guy (fred), raised a big amount
for such a small pot (+$60). well, he's a little drunk and stubborn (lost
his AA to obvious set Qs in a previous hand for $300). for him making such a
move, he must have a set or top two pair(not very likely). bettor folded in
a puzzle, but i knew i was in trouble.
he got $600 behind, i only bought in sh |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 9 when i first started to play live NL, there was one hand (i was not in):
pre-flop, small bet/raise.
flop: JJJ (1st time ever i saw this type of flop, lol).
small bet/call, HU.
turn: blank, small bet/call.
river: J.
bettor bet big, this old man was soooo confused, asking, "why you bet? we
all have it...", then he just called with Ax.
then the bettor (apparently a new fish) realized it's a mistake, quickly
mucked his PP. apparently he didn't know this type of board, any Ax was the
nuts!
the old ma |
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T********n
发帖数: 528 | 10
a
的4
Are you talking about if you were in this hand and you were V1 and you held
Ace-relatively weak kicker?
"Finding out where you're at" is a good concept but it's often misapplied.
In the multiway scenario, You should indeed check raise if you hit the ace
but the most important reason to check raise is to get the middle hand to
fold, once the ace flops you are a slight favorite to a legitimate 3B range
so you lose nothing by check raising and pick up equity by folding out a
hand with outs.
I... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 11 I didn't put her on that too, because there only one out can beat her,
for a 200$ pot, she probably will raise a little bit or even just call, she
just need to cut the pot odds for a A high flush draw, that only need 200$ ,
not all in.
Think it again, why she all in 1000$ , she didn't want me in the pot at all.
the bettor only have 100$ left I forgot to tell you. so the bettor may call
since he commited too much already. |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 12 K8suited on big blind.
A normal image guy bet 20$ bf flop, everybody in , I called 15$ .
flp 10 8 2 two diamonds, the bettor bf flop , bet 20$ again( there are 160$
in the pot)
and 4 guys called before me, so I called my second pair.
turn is K!( not flush) , I bet 100$ in the early position , the guy follow
me instantly call. and the bettor before flop think a minute and say ALL IN!
( 280$ totally)!!!
Should I call, fold or all in ( I have 500$ left) , the caller after me have
300$ left.. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 13 1/2NL.
short handed game, 67o limped in MP.
flopped nuts straight, 5c8s9s. loose bettor put in $10, decided to catch him
big and just called. suddenly button, old guy (fred), raised a big amount
for such a small pot (+$60). well, he's a little drunk and stubborn (lost
his AA to obvious set Qs in a previous hand for $300). for him making such a
move, he must have a set or top two pair(not very likely). bettor folded in
a puzzle, but i knew i was in trouble.
he got $600 behind, i only bought in sh |
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r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 14 大部分赌客是通过民调来押注的。今年大选，由于美国媒体的偏向性，媒体民调水分很
大，媒体民调主要用于影响选民投票意向。另外，希拉里花了数百万美元用于民调，许
多民调公司被收买。根据民调下注，风险很大。
在华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校举行了美国大选第二场电视辩论。川普与希拉里在辩论场上
展开了激烈的“唇枪舌战”。而当美国人民为选谁当总统纠结不清时，在遥远的英国，
一名女子押注50万欧元赌希拉里在大选中获胜。
一名女子押注50万欧元赌希拉里在大选中获胜，这可能是有史以来最大的政治赌注。
The gamble, which is the equivalent to ￡450,000, was with British
bookies William Hill who placed the Democratic party nominee at 4-11 to win
the race to the White House.
这名女子在英国博彩公司下注，赌注相当于45万英镑，她以4比11的赔率押这位民主党
提名人赢得美国总统大选。
Should Cli... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********e
发帖数: 32207 | 15 CAN'T YOU READ?
You declared to enter a bet, and you are supposed to sign a bettor's
agreement,
right?
I am requesting your address so the agreement will be sent, requesting your
signature. Please provide. |
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p*********e
发帖数: 32207 | 16 No, once you've entered the bet you are not in a position to declare that.
Again, under the standard procedure both parties are supposed to sign
the bettor's agreement. I'll prepare one, sign it, send it to your address,
and request your signature. And we'll go from there. |
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p*********e
发帖数: 32207 | 17 no i will not teach you at no cost.
As I said, reply my PM and provide a valid mailing address.
I will send in a bettor's agreement.
Or you don't want to follow my rule, that's fine. Propose your way
of how this betting will go, so that someone will make sure to win/lose
1000USD.
the
, |
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t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 18 Call activity has revved higher today on electric car company Tesla Motors
Inc (TSLA - 25.12), with 5,420 contracts crossing the tape so far --
narrowly outstripping the stock's average daily call volume of 5,270
contracts. Taking a closer look at the day's major block trades, it looks as
though a spread speculator is responsible for a healthy portion of TSLA's
call activity.
Specifically, the equity's May 24, May 26, and May 27 strikes have attracted
the bulk of the attention. The May 24 strike... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******n
发帖数: 12995 | 20 When a team on the road is less than a field-goal underdog in the NFL, the
suggestion is that, according to the power ratings, the visitor is a better
team than the host — the road squad, in most cases, would be the favorite
on a neutral field.
When the Seahawks closed out the Redskins (24-14) on Sunday, the LVH
SuperBook opened the Falcons as just a 2-point favorite for next Sunday’s
NFC divisional playoff matchup. The implication is that Seattle, a wildcard
team, is better than the top-seeded ... 阅读全帖 |
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p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 21 对啊，一个飞狗说明是close game，常规赛那场拍子/巨人的比赛也是close game。最
多说明很多casual sports bettors更倾向于买brady/belichick combo，再说拍子是
afc no.1 seed，巨人是nfc no.4 seed，乌鸦常规赛也打败过49er。这场球应该挺
close的。 |
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r****e
发帖数: 229 | 22 consistently win != always win. No one can always win, but professional
bettors can consistently beat the bookies on a yearly basis
vegas的model is designed for 50-50 split so they can make the most juice 没
错, but there are numerous instances where they are off, way off...
go |
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M***O
发帖数: 3718 | 23 这两段大概是最好的总结：
YouTube (after being momentarily distracted by a Springsteen clip and a
thing about whales), I found a home video shot and narrated by Archie
Manning. Peyton and Eli are shooting baskets in the backyard court of their
New Orleans home. Eli is 7, maybe 8, and he's missing every way possible --
short, long, off the top of the rim, off the bottom, off air. Peyton
rebounds and feeds his younger brother after every shot; Eli hits a few but
clangs most. It's painful to watch, yet Eli neve... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****h
发帖数: 44903 | 24 Famous World Series bettor to put 8 figures on Eagles to win Super Bowl |
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s******r
发帖数: 21961 | 25 赌场内部消息：
$250,000 parlay riding on Monday Night Football betting odds
By JASON LOGAN
Monday Night Football games often operate as the banker game for sportsbooks
, deciding whether the NFL week will be a winning one or a losing one thanks
to multiple parlays and teasers rolling over into the primetime finale.
That’s the case for MGM sportsbooks in Las Vegas, where one football bettor
has around $250,000 riding on the New York Giants -1.5 against the Miami
Dolphins Monday night.
According to Jeff ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*a
发帖数: 17670 | 26 信叔的，买酱紫。
这文章本身就是烟雾弹
sportsbooks
thanks
bettor |
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M*****o
发帖数: 8125 | 27 The field is a group of the entrants whose odds are not individually listed
to win an event, usually longshots. These longshots are grouped together so
that a bettor wins his field bet if any of the longshots win. Events with a
large number of entrants, like golf or NASCAR, most often offer field
betting.
看来对砍里叫field不太精确，叫others更好 |
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b*****a
发帖数: 14583 | 29 Vegas lines are purely based on hype, i.e. their assessment on how the
bettors will think. They have nothing to do with the expected outcome of
the game.
them. |
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G****e
发帖数: 11198 | 30 还是看看英文的总结过瘾啊：
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ap-instantrepla
By RALPH D. RUSSO, AP College Football Writer
2 hours, 29 minutes ago
tweet
Email
Print
A game-saving goal-line stand on the Plains. The Ball Coach pulling a fast
one between the Hedges. Triple-overtime in Iowa. A touchdown two hours after
the game was over at the Coliseum.
And none of that topped Bedlam at the Big House.
For months, the news about college football has been dominated by
investigations and scandals, con... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 31 I didn't put her on a very big hand, maybe a set or two pairs, but I just
can't risk all my chips for a pot I only commited 20$!
I fold, bettor called his last 100$ showing AA(d),
no diamond came, the 1000$ allin button show JQsuited!!
still a good lay down I think..... |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 32 pocket QQ.
one loose buy bet 30$ , another one called, I just called my QQ on the
button.
flop 10 37 no flush draw.
the one bet before the flop keep betting 40$, another one all in 120$ just
in front of me.
What can I do?
Obviously I think I got him beat, but Kind of afraid of the first guy , he
may get KK or AA.
hesitate a long time.
Then I just called, the bettor before the flop folded. and the all in guy
showed his JJ!
turn is nothing, river is J!!!!!!
and one player said he folded a J alread |
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p*****l
发帖数: 399 | 33 Yesterday I played a hand that's been my best shot a badbeat jackpot so far.
I limped in with 3d2d, flop came 5d5c4d, I flopped open straight flush draw,
excellent. Someone in middle position kept betting, one guy and I kept
calling. On the river, my draw didn't complete. I was not aware how close we
were getting a badbeat jackpot until the bettor turned up his pocket fives
for the quad fives.
Oh, if the 6d or Ad came on the turn/river, I would have won 1/4 of the bad
beat jackpot, sigh, when ca |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 34 in general, no cards for hours...
biggest winning hand, crappy Kd5d, hit two pair on flop, went all-in against
KQ, got $200+. that's about it, a few small hands, 20 here, 40 there...
best starting hand, QQ, flopped Kxx, dare not to fool around although it
held up for small pot...
first hand, 9To, pushed by Kx, flop K98, turn 9, tried to slow play, but met
K on river...
second last hand, 4c5c, called $11 preflop bet, figured bettor only got high
pair, and another semi-pro(i was a little scared by |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 35 sigh, for myself, it's not about two pair or $11+30+60+150=$251(not really
that big) that i cared. it's about my routine mistake. i've laid down tons
of two pair/set in tough situations but sometimes i still make the same "no-
time-to-think-before-action" mistakes.
#1:
i knew that lady semi is a tough aggressive player, and i stayed away from
her since she came to the table, and kept patient/tight whenever she's in
the pot...but suddenly this hand, my focus was all on the other guy (bettor)
, i |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 36 yeah, you actually only want to play 45s with position I think. Without
position, it's better not to play a big pot with 45s.
no-
bettor)
raiser
players, |
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m*****i
发帖数: 1873 | 37 Ac 10s suited, one guy bet 20$, 6 guy called, I have Ac 10s on big blind so
I called the 15$, flop Jd9s8s rainbow, I checked, bettor all in 120$, one
loose guy called, is this a easy decision for me( we can check it down if I
call I think ) |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 38 i agree in normal situations, i should raise here. but this hand is about
playing specific ppl, and that's why i want to post here.
1) my main target was the loose bettor, i knew he got nothing for me to
worry about, even there's a possible flush draw out there. he liked to bet
out $10 without position, i was more than happy to slow play him, and didn't
want to scare anybody behind me too.
2) for the old guy (he's a regular), 90% of time or for 90% ppl, all-in with
my straight was the RIGHT stra |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 39 i think it's who makes the last raise/bet needs to show. if no one bets in
this round, the one who bets last round...
in reality, no one is really forced to show, if one of them already declares
a winning hand like "i have a full house..." and shows, although others
have the right to request a show down of the bettor's hand.
on |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 40 define "optimum". . . :-)
obv. it's oppo dependent. in the previous example, when the bettor's range
becomes wider, so should your 3-bet range.
there is theoretically possible some "optimum unbeatable" mixing percentage
(including mixing range in the next street(s) play). it's optimum in the
sense that it's unexploitable by any opponent, yet it doesnot mean the most
+EV balance strategy. the most +EV mixing range should be table dependent.
Sklansky et al. discussed these theories in good detail |
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l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | 41 看看同桌的人的说法：
I was at the table, and I was the one who (unintentionally) got her the
penalt
y. She didn't check the nuts; rather, she failed to raise with them. The
board
was TKxxT, no straight flush on board, she called the river and flipped TT.
T
he bettor in the hand had KK and will from now on be freerolling his Main
Even
t.
I said to her, wow, you should get a penalty for that. A few players at the
ta
ble argued that you don't have to raise, which is clearly incorrect. The
floor
was called ov |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 42 i see.
but here's the problem:
1) on the flop, when you call, you don't know what the first bettor will do
yet (after he bets out $50), when you call, you give him great odds to stay
too, he only needs to put another $50 to take a shot at a $310 pot or 1:6
odds (great). AND, since he bets $50 first out of position for a $60 pot, it
's very reasonable to believe he got a hand (better than 1:6 hands) in most
cases.
if both stay, KK is not strong as we might think at all.
2) on the turn, $100 is no |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 43 yeah, it's defintely more real and dangerous than, say, flop or river check
raise, because:
1) flop check raising range is wider, since some ppl, say who got TT, might
check raise a typical c-bettor's AKo on a J77 flop if he believes the AKo
guy misses. or, he might check raise a TPTK hand against draws;
2) river check raising is kind of risky (to lose potential value) since all
cards are dealt (less suspense), scared hands may just check down, missed
hands may bluff but not that often, TPTK han |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 44 LOL, all your friends were wrong!
it has nothing to do with blinds or Nx (although 2x in this case would give
you the same right amount).
the minimum raise amount should be $10 or more, so it's 10+10 = $20.
for raising, it all depends on previous bets/raises, for example:
if one opens the pot (the first bettor) for $10 (has to be equal or bigger
than BB, here is $2), then the next guy who wants to raise would put $X in (
X > $10-0) here, let's say he puts in $25 (just for discussion purpose). so |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 45 hehe.. good.
take notes of habitual 3-bettors and color code them, so that you only "
steal" them with your premium hands. you can also float them if they often
only fire one barrel and give up on the turn (notes/stats). |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 46 HEM still works for rush (kinda).
I tailor my c-bet size according to board texture (1/2 pot on dry flop -
k72r, 2/3 to 3/4 on normal flop Qs9s3, full pot on wet flop 5s7s9)
if you have notes on those habitual 3-bettors, your decisions will be much
easier, pre andpostflop. |
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r****r
发帖数: 1394 | 47 i'll commit 100bb with KK, since there's only one 3-bettor there.
maybe i'll make it $15 preflop(assume the effective stack is $50). still
dont understand how u can read him as
AA.
fold.
big已经给出足够信息.如果他flop bet小一点,我就很麻烦. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 48 Rounders Script
[Man Narrating] Listen, here's the thing.
If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the
table,
then you are the sucker.
Guys around here'll tell ya... you play for a living.
It's like any other job. You don't gamble. You grind it out.
Your goal is to win one big bet an hour, that's it.
Get your money in when you have the best of it, and protect it
when you don't.
... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****t
发帖数: 817 | 49 Last night, live 2/3 NL.
A raised, multi-way pot. I called the raise with 26 clubs (I wouldnt be
that loose if I were playing online). The flop has two clubs, A and 3.
Someone bet $30, everyone folded to me. I sensed that the bettor was weak,
so I checked raised all in $100 into a $70 pot. I got a reluctant call and
missed my draw. Then I mucked my six high at the river. Villain got
shocked and show me five high with his 45 clubs. I was feeling like a
bullet just went
through my head.
Guys, neve... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 50 最近desktop的硬盘坏了 连着哥的脑子也有点秀逗了 没看明白mm老湿的问题。
下面郑重回答，mm老湿问的，拿什么来call这个btn的5bet
在abc情况下，100bb有效stack，鉴于btn是5bet 未知的cold 4 bettor，
online
微级别桌子，哥愿意把他的range估计在qq+／AK和极少的bluffing hands，这里哥的
calling range和对手的shoving range相同，另外，哥一般不用qq和ak在这里small
4bet，哥会either flat，或者直接4bet shove，从而避免拿qq和ak在这里crying call，
低级别桌子（nl50/nl100），一般或者未知对手，哥会把他放在KK＋和少量QQ，哥的
calling range是KK＋。另外，哥想了一下，一般情况下，哥只在这里用qq cold 4bet
small／fold，用KK＋/ak flat，fold其他的牌。遇到明显的好的spot，可能拿着any 2
cold 4bet／fold，拿着kk＋ 4bet/commit。
再高级别的桌子，木有经验，weakt... 阅读全帖 |
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