|
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 1 The new frontier of genetic analysis is developing so fast that industry
leader Illumina plans to come out with an iPad app.
Some of Illumina’s ILMN software used in gene sequencing already
runs in the Internet cloud.
Illumina showed off its new “MiGenome” iPad app at the third annual
Consumer Genetics Show in Boston on June 8, pointing out that it will put
genomic information at a person’s fingertips.
Illumina will soon start shipping a lower-price gene sequencing system in
the third quarter.
The so-called MiSeq is also faster and easier to use than its large HiSeq
2000, a second-generation tool launched in January 2010 to heralded success.
The MiSeq is priced at $125,000 vs. $690,000 for the HiSeq 2000.
“Demand is there. It’s a growing field,” said Les Funtleyder, manager
of Miller Tabak Health Care Transformation Fund, which owns shares in
Illumina.
He says genetic analysis will be one of the biggest growth areas in the
health care industry over the next five to 10 years.
Better Treatments
The emerging industry is seen as a key door-opener in connecting genetics
and disease with the ultimate goal of coming up with better treatments.
Illumina is widely considered the tech leader in genetic analysis. That
includes both gene sequencing, the blueprinting of a body’s molecular
structure, and microarrays, used in genotyping and gene expression analysis.
Illumina’s largest revenue generator and fastest-growing product right
now is in sequencing, notably the HiSeq 2000. High-margin consumable
reagents needed to run on the instrument are part of it.
The more systems placed in the field, the more reagents needed to be used
with them.
“It’s a razor/razor-blade model,” said Ross Muken, an analyst with
Deutsche Bank Securities.
In the first quarter, revenue from consumables was $148 million vs. $114
million for equipment revenue. The rest, $16 million, came mostly from
services.
Total revenue grew 47% over the earlier year and was driven by ongoing
success with the company’s sequencing business.
Management expects sequencing consumable “pull-throughs” to rise
through the year.
Meanwhile, introductory discounts on the HiSeq 2000 are largely over,
meaning HiSeq sales are selling at full price now.
Muken estimates that the HiSeq tool has garnered 80% market share and
figures the smaller MiSeq will capture at least 50% of the market.
Rivals in gene sequencing include Life Technologies LIFE and 454
Life Sciences, a subsidiary of Roche. Life has a head start on Illumina’s
MiSeq with its Ion Torrent Personal Genome Machine.
Still, Maxim Group estimates that Illumina has 36% market share in gene
sequencing tools, followed by Roche with 10% and Life with 9%.
It figures gene sequencing is a $1.9 billion market growing 25% to 30%
annually, with $3.6 billion in sales in 2014.
Meanwhile, Illumina’s profit has grown at a compound annual rate of 29%
since 2007. First-quarter profit jumped 67% vs. the prior year to 35 cents a
share. Analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters estimate that full-year earnings
will rise 43% to $1.52 a share and go up 29% in 2012.
“All these products are high margin,” said Muken, noting that the firm
’s gross margin is around 70% and operating margin in the 30% range.
While most of Illumina’s customers are researchers at academic and
government labs worldwide, the technology will “eventually move down to
hospital and doctors’ levels,” Funtleyder said.
Not to mention consumers. But all that could be a ways off.
“Diagnostic applications are more of a medium- to long-term opportunity,
’ said Maxim Group analyst Bryan Brokmeier.
Illumina hasn’t said when the MiGenome iPad app will go on sale. Nor
does it say how much revenue it generates from its individual genome
sequencing service, which costs $7,500 to $10,000 per person and is sold
through physician partners.
Management would only say that early adopters of the individual gene
sequencing program include oncology and rare-disease physicians, as well as
proactive “healthy and curious individuals.”
Of the 80% of Illumina’s customers that come from academia and
government research labs, 65% of them receive government funds, Brokmeier
says. A sizable portion comes from the National Institutes of Health.
Government Funding
“Government funding has been challenging,” Muken said. “However, gene
sequencing has garnered a larger share of the pie. The percentage applied to
sequencing applications has grown significantly.”
Corporate customers such as drug and biotech firms make up about 15% to
20% of revenue in a given quarter, management says. They don’t see that
dynamic changing anytime soon.
Drug firms buy Illumina’s sequencers mostly for research purposes rather
than large-scale discovery programs.
While Illumina’s microarray, or genotyping, business has been slowing,
Brokmeier expects it to step up on the heels of the nearly complete 1,000
Genomes Project.
The project is an international research effort to establish a detailed
catalog of human genetic variation. Microarrays will be used in more
detailed tests based on data released through the project.
Illumina’s main rival in microarrays is Affymetrix AFFX .
“I think the microarray market is going to come back, but it’s not the
high-growth opportunity for Illumina,” Brokmeier said. “Sequencing is
where the high growth is, and research applications is where most of the
sales are now. Long term, it’s going to be in diagnostic applications.” | s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 2 要我说毛？
NGS里面还是ILMN/LIFE/ROCHE三强鼎立
技术上ILMN应该好些，尤其是简单些
ILMN迟早会上一百？
LIFE五年应该可以翻番。。。
PACB是个好烧材？可惜它一次都没有蹦达过，烧它吧，总会担心它哪天会冒个泡出来
Microarray不怎么能回来吧，AFFX以后就一普通公司，慢慢的消沉？ | v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 3 说的挺好。就是需要内行人士进行一下言简意赅的科普 | m*******y
发帖数: 904 | 4 射天狼说说SQNM吧，最近有什么events／updates么
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 要我说毛？
: NGS里面还是ILMN/LIFE/ROCHE三强鼎立
: 技术上ILMN应该好些，尤其是简单些
: ILMN迟早会上一百？
: LIFE五年应该可以翻番。。。
: PACB是个好烧材？可惜它一次都没有蹦达过，烧它吧，总会担心它哪天会冒个泡出来
: Microarray不怎么能回来吧，AFFX以后就一普通公司，慢慢的消沉？
| s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 5 最近跌了些，有资金就加吧。文章已经送杂志了，结果可以想象，肯定不坏，否则写什么
文章。四季度初要出消息文章接受了的话，应该会爆的。
唯一的担心是市场专利的问题，因为另外有两家（慢好几步）也说要搞，这肯定要打官
司。不管怎么样，SQNM领先不少，而且专利应该是它的。
【在 m*******y 的大作中提到】
: 射天狼说说SQNM吧，最近有什么events／updates么
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 6 说说AFFX吧，图不错。
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=ILMN,LIFE,PACB,AFFX
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 要我说毛？
: NGS里面还是ILMN/LIFE/ROCHE三强鼎立
: 技术上ILMN应该好些，尤其是简单些
: ILMN迟早会上一百？
: LIFE五年应该可以翻番。。。
: PACB是个好烧材？可惜它一次都没有蹦达过，烧它吧，总会担心它哪天会冒个泡出来
: Microarray不怎么能回来吧，AFFX以后就一普通公司，慢慢的消沉？
| s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 7 图好像是还不错，不过它家的经营是我大方向不看好的，所以不烧它就不错了，长它
我是不会的，除非它的新总裁能变出什么法子象ILMN的总裁收购二代测序技术的高招
来。
PACB图上看可以烧么？很想烧它。同时长LIFE or ILMN对冲？
【在 y*****l 的大作中提到】
: 说说AFFX吧，图不错。
: http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=ILMN,LIFE,PACB,AFFX
| y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 8 你就玩你的长线就行了，别烧PACB了。
我只作多，不烧。
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 图好像是还不错，不过它家的经营是我大方向不看好的，所以不烧它就不错了，长它
: 我是不会的，除非它的新总裁能变出什么法子象ILMN的总裁收购二代测序技术的高招
: 来。
: PACB图上看可以烧么？很想烧它。同时长LIFE or ILMN对冲？
| M*P
发帖数: 6456 | 9 pacb的机器现在应该已经出货了吧
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 图好像是还不错，不过它家的经营是我大方向不看好的，所以不烧它就不错了，长它
: 我是不会的，除非它的新总裁能变出什么法子象ILMN的总裁收购二代测序技术的高招
: 来。
: PACB图上看可以烧么？很想烧它。同时长LIFE or ILMN对冲？
| s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 10 烧了PACB，TNND。
再上ILMN，TNNGXD。
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 图好像是还不错，不过它家的经营是我大方向不看好的，所以不烧它就不错了，长它
: 我是不会的，除非它的新总裁能变出什么法子象ILMN的总裁收购二代测序技术的高招
: 来。
: PACB图上看可以烧么？很想烧它。同时长LIFE or ILMN对冲？
| v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 11 不错。希望能站住
【在 s****l 的大作中提到】
: 烧了PACB，TNND。
: 再上ILMN，TNNGXD。
| s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 12 你有情支持一下买个一万股ilmn或者烧十万股PACB？LOL
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 不错。希望能站住
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
