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发帖数: 462 | 1 Responses from 45 data-networking and storage resellers for the third-
quarter period suggest areas of positive growth during the quarter, but
coupled with ongoing headwinds into the fourth quarter.
Specifically, the upcoming U.S. election and the fiscal cliff have created
what appears to be incremental strain on customer demand. We believe
investors should remain somewhat defensive during this earnings season with
exposure to companies with strong account control that enables solid
visibility into customer-sales cycles. Our picks: EMC (ticker: EMC) ($30
price target); Fusion-io (FIO) ($34 price target) and CommVault (CVLT) ($61
price target, up from from $58).
Our survey garnered 45 responses this quarter, about 90% in the U.S. and the
remainder out of Europe, Middle East and Africa. Sixty-five percent of our
respondents grew revenue during the third-quarter quarter-over-quarter. This
is roughly flat with last quarter at 64% but down four points from 68% in
the prior-year period. We also saw an uptick in respondents suggesting a
flat quarter at 23% of total, up from 15% in the prior-year period. Our high
-level view is that resellers that touch federal agencies are more likely to
see a positive outcome then those participating in stand-alone enterprise
markets.
We recognize the challenging environment and as such, view companies that
have strong account control and/or specific secular tailwinds as optimal
areas of investments for a challenging outlook like what the fourth quarter
might be shaping up to be. With this in mind, we believe EMC, Fusion-io and
CommVault offer some of these qualities. EMC benefits from most direct
access to customers, with our checks suggesting an in-line-to-good growth
quarter for Enterprise. Fusion-io benefits from direct account access as
well (better visibility), but clearly the PCIe Flash storage market remains
a healthy 30%-plus growth market, plus a low hurdle rate for the September
quarter. Finally, CommVault's move towards a capacity-driven model has
provided better visibility into quarters over the last year in our view,
with days sales outstanding (DSOs) down the last nine months. |
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