X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 1 信源：世界日报
美国6日大选结果将牵动美股后市，视总统欧巴马能否连任、国会由民主或共和党掌控
而定，将有4种可能的结局，对美股的影响各不相同。
第1种是维持现状：欧巴马连任，国会仍分属不同政党，由民主党掌参院、共和党掌众
院。市场可能对共和党总统候选人罗姆尼无缘实施其企业友善政策感到失望，造成美股
短暂下挫。
但更大的议题是「财政悬崖」。国会分歧无疑将使两党再陷拉锯，顶多在最后1分钟达
成协议，以免造成一连串加税和减支措施、导致美国国内生产毛额（GDP）萎缩5个百分
点之多，并立即陷入衰退。但更可能的状况是国会延后6至12个月作决定，以协商出解
决国债的长期方案。两党僵持不下恐使美股剧烈震盪。
瑞士银行（UBS）说，两党意识形态差太多，很难乐观期待税改和社福改革会让市场满
意。
第2种可能是共和党大胜： 罗姆尼胜选而共和党掌控两院。美股可能上涨，因为罗姆尼
计画减税并减少法规监管，且国会和白宫较易达成全面性的税务和开支协议。但罗姆尼
表明不继续提名联准会（Fed）主席柏南克，货币政策趋紧恐冲击股市。
第3种可能是罗姆尼胜选，但国会分歧。美股可能在选后先涨后跌。共和党将缺乏年底
前达成财政协议的诱因，可能等罗姆尼1月20日宣誓就职、该党拥有更多谈判优势才行
动，造成经济坠落悬崖的风险升高。
第4种情况是，大选胜负无法立判。欧巴马和罗姆尼的民调一直很接近，万一结果延迟
数日或数周才出炉，将不利美股后市。2000年小布希对上高尔，11月7日投票，但直至
12月13 日，最高法院实质阻止佛罗里达州重新计票，结果才底定，标普500和道琼工业
指数在那5周内分别下跌8%和5.2%。
欧、罗两人谁上台，可能嘉惠不同类股。罗姆尼主张减税、少监管，增加军费支出，市
场看好他胜选会拉抬发放高股息的金融股，以及国防股。但若欧巴马连任，基础建设和
工程股可能较吃香。 | f**********n
发帖数: 1278 | | w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | | t*******s
发帖数: 289 | 4 thanks for sharing
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: 信源：世界日报
: 美国6日大选结果将牵动美股后市，视总统欧巴马能否连任、国会由民主或共和党掌控
: 而定，将有4种可能的结局，对美股的影响各不相同。
: 第1种是维持现状：欧巴马连任，国会仍分属不同政党，由民主党掌参院、共和党掌众
: 院。市场可能对共和党总统候选人罗姆尼无缘实施其企业友善政策感到失望，造成美股
: 短暂下挫。
: 但更大的议题是「财政悬崖」。国会分歧无疑将使两党再陷拉锯，顶多在最后1分钟达
: 成协议，以免造成一连串加税和减支措施、导致美国国内生产毛额（GDP）萎缩5个百分
: 点之多，并立即陷入衰退。但更可能的状况是国会延后6至12个月作决定，以协商出解
: 决国债的长期方案。两党僵持不下恐使美股剧烈震盪。
| f**c
发帖数: 629 | 5 why?
【在 w*****y 的大作中提到】
: 周末想了半天,觉得只有往下一个方向
| f******e
发帖数: 6488 | 6 我咋觉得是向上
【在 w*****y 的大作中提到】
: 周末想了半天,觉得只有往下一个方向
| w*****y
发帖数: 2182 | 7 等选举和18大尘埃落定后才该是真方向，我不太相信dow会冲过14000
【在 f******e 的大作中提到】
: 我咋觉得是向上
| t**e
发帖数: 2379 | 8 指数微升，VIX暴涨。
市场方向不明，大家都在上保护。
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: 信源：世界日报
: 美国6日大选结果将牵动美股后市，视总统欧巴马能否连任、国会由民主或共和党掌控
: 而定，将有4种可能的结局，对美股的影响各不相同。
: 第1种是维持现状：欧巴马连任，国会仍分属不同政党，由民主党掌参院、共和党掌众
: 院。市场可能对共和党总统候选人罗姆尼无缘实施其企业友善政策感到失望，造成美股
: 短暂下挫。
: 但更大的议题是「财政悬崖」。国会分歧无疑将使两党再陷拉锯，顶多在最后1分钟达
: 成协议，以免造成一连串加税和减支措施、导致美国国内生产毛额（GDP）萎缩5个百分
: 点之多，并立即陷入衰退。但更可能的状况是国会延后6至12个月作决定，以协商出解
: 决国债的长期方案。两党僵持不下恐使美股剧烈震盪。
| t******g
发帖数: 462 | 9 From Barrons
Investment Clouds Won't Clear Completely After Vote
When we wake up Wednesday morning, we presumably will have put months of
uncertainty behind us and will know who will serve as president for the next
four years and the makeup of the new Congress. Yet, major uncertainties
will still confront the stock market.
Veteran portfolio strategist Byron Wien of Blackstone says at least four
clouds hang over the investment horizon. Only one relates to U.S. policy,
and even that won't gain much clarity after the results of Tuesday's
balloting are in.
In his latest monthly investment note, Wien admits to being worried about
the outlook for equities, despite the U.S. stock market's double-digit gains
so far this year. He acknowledges better economic signs including declining
initial unemployment claims; improving auto and housing activity;
purchasing managers indexes on the plus side of 50 indicating expansion; and
retailers are planning for a robust holiday season. Central banks are
pursuing stimulative policies around the globe, while interest rates are low
in the U.S., U.K. and Germany, and while inflation is tame in the developed
world. Finally, China is providing fiscal and monetary stimulus to bring
about a soft landing in its economy.
While that doesn't mean a bear market looms, Wien contends. Even with flat
earnings, the S&P 500 would be reasonably priced at 14.5 times 2013 earnings
. But the prospect of another year of double-digit gains seems unlikely next
year.
The fiscal cliff would slice about 3% from GDP, which is growing about 4% in
nominal terms (2% in real terms and 2% inflation), and he notes both
presidential candidates say they would seek a deferral of the scheduled tax
hikes. Even Obama would be unlikely to let all of the Bush tax cuts expire
and sequestration of spending also would likely be delayed temporarily.
But the task facing Washington is a tough one, Wien says. "There is no way
we can bring down the enormous annual U.S. deficit without both cutting
expenditures (24% of GDP) and also raising taxes (17% of GDP). We are facing
a potential crisis and Washington will have to respond to that challenge. I
think a workable compromise will be reached no matter who wins the
presidential election, but there is likely to be some negative impact on
growth next year even so."
Wien also says he's encouraged by what he's seen in Europe. "Virtually all
the policy makers there seem to be trying to work together to find a
solution to the sovereign debt problem." And while countries such as Spain
and Italy have become uncompetitive because of the rise in the labor costs,
it also is not clear that any member of the euro zone would be better off if
it left and devalued its currency, he adds. Progress is being made, which
is why the euro has been strong and stock markets there have been strong. "
There are sure to be setbacks, and the possibility of failure continues to
be a risk, but the last few months have provided some reason for hope."
Finally, there's the risk of a strike by Israel against Iranian nuclear
facilities, which could result in the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,
sending the price of Brent crude oil soaring to $150 to $200 a barrel and
Europe and the U.S. into recession. But with so much to lose, Wien thinks
this is unlikely. Iran may negotiate a pullback from its nuclear efforts, as
Western sanctions are starting to hit Iran's economy seriously. Some
intelligence sources say Iran is not close to having a bomb after sabotage
and assassinations have slowed its nuclear program. Syria, an important ally
of Iran, is under siege. The situation will likely gain more attention in
the U.S. after the elections regardless of who wins, he adds.
"I have had an optimistic view of the United States in 2012 and the market
has appreciated more than most observers expected; the events I have
described make me believe that 2013 will be a more difficult year," Wien
concludes.
But the outlook for these factors will be no clearer after the polls close
and the votes are counted. |
|
