L**********y
发帖数: 2525 | 1 最近很迷惑到底是要向上还是向下。争取把看到的牛熊双方的我觉得有道理的文章都贴
这儿。 | L**********y
发帖数: 2525 | 2 熊：“傻钱”进来了
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704405704575596803894464906.html
1. sentiment survey by American Association of Individual Investors is most bullish since Feb 2007
2. $8.4B pourted into equity funds since Sept.; of which $2B are from retail investors
不过这文章自己也承认，进来的钱远比之前出去的为少。八月份总共有 $23B yanked out of equity funds.
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'Dumb Money' Returns to Stocks
By KELLY EVANS
Individual investors are wading back into the U.S. stock market. That ought
to make über-bulls think twice.
Positive forces including strong corporate earnings, improving economic data
and more bond buying by the Federal Reserve have fueled a 17% rally in the
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index since late August. The market has now
punched through its prior 2010 highs, set in April, to reach levels last
seen in 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Predictably, that has also triggered a rebound in bullish sentiment and
helped coax investors back into the market. The American Association of
Individual Investors finds 48% of investors surveyed are bullish on stocks
as of last week—the highest level since February 2007. Bearish sentiment,
at 27%, is at its lowest since January 2006.
And it appears their money is following suit. Roughly a quarter of recent
flows into U.S. equity funds, including exchange-traded funds, have come
from individual investors, according to EPFR Global. Since early September,
such retail investors have poured about $2 billion into these funds, which
have taken in about $8.4 billion. That is a marked turnaround from the $23
billion yanked out of equity funds in August, when double-dip fears raged.
For now, this support could help the market extend its recent run. Yet it
may also mean it is late in the rally game. Retail investors are usually a
lagging indicator, reacting to past performance rather than predicting
future gains. Their flows, says Harvard University lecturer Owen Lamont, can
create "a short-term lift" but it rarely lasts beyond a few months. He and
Andrea Frazzini of AQR Capital Management have written a series of papers
together on this "dumb money" phenomenon.
Admittedly, the flow of money from individual investors back into the market
has been more a trickle than a flood—from January 2009 through August,
individuals pulled around $162 billion from equity funds.
Even so, a return of retail investors argues for caution. The prior high in
sentiment this year came in late spring, just as the market was headed for a
bruising selloff. It may not be wise to fight the Fed, but it can be just
as ill-advised to follow the crowd. | y********a
发帖数: 397 | 3 股盲对股市的理解是你吃下去多少，你就得吐出来多少，还得饶上
些，不排除运气奇佳。
最近房市低迷，贷款利率奇低，是个投资良机。
觉得有道理的文章都贴
【在 L**********y 的大作中提到】
: 最近很迷惑到底是要向上还是向下。争取把看到的牛熊双方的我觉得有道理的文章都贴
: 这儿。
| L**********y
发帖数: 2525 | 4 人一买了房，就只好成熟了
【在 y********a 的大作中提到】
: 股盲对股市的理解是你吃下去多少，你就得吐出来多少，还得饶上
: 些，不排除运气奇佳。
: 最近房市低迷，贷款利率奇低，是个投资良机。
:
: 觉得有道理的文章都贴
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