最近几年中东地区很多国家通过决议准备开始实施VAT,税率目前定在5%。目前已有
两个国家从2018年1月开始实施。一年多过去,具体情况如何?收税是否达到预期? https://agsiw.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Mogielnicki_VAT_Online.pdf
Saudi Arabia’s total VAT revenue for 2018 reached around 45.6 billion
riyals (approximately $12.16 billion), constituting 27.5% of the country’s
total tax revenue for the fiscal year and representing about 1.55% of GDP.
Although UAE policymakers expected VAT revenue of around $3.3 billion in
2018, the country reported tax revenue of $7.4 billion in 2018. This
accounted for approximately 1.79% of the country’s GDP. The UAE’s VAT
figures for 2018 even exceeded Moody’s forecast of $5.45 billion in total
VAT revenue for 2019.
阿联酋2018VAT收入超过了原先预期的两倍。 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-budget-tax/saudi-arabia-collects-
twice-as-much-vat-as-expected-in-2018-budget-document-idUSKBN1OH1W7
根据这篇文章,沙特的2018VAT收入超过预期,达到了原先预期的两倍左右。
但可以看到,在两国加收5%VAT情况下,其收入在远超预期的情况下,占GDP的比例
仅为1.55%到1.79%。
根据https://freedom-dividend.com/,Yang预期10%VAT收入将占GDP的4.8%,显然太乐
观了。
如果按照沙特和阿联酋的VAT占GDP的3.1%-3.6%计算的话,应该在670b到780b之间。