1October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖
5Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets
their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll.
About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be
among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative
reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll
since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the
European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey.
Enlarge ima... 阅读全帖
Donald Trump has a new target: "Crooked polls."
With Hillary Clinton extending her lead nationwide and in key battleground
states, Trump is toying with what might be called "poll denialism," giving
his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data.
"Even the polls are crooked," he said at a Monday night rally, expressing
disbelief that he is losing to Clinton in Pennsylvania. "Look, we'r... 阅读全帖
Want a tough job? Try being a pollster two weeks before Election Day.
Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are
biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling
Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a
trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican
presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary... 阅读全帖
poll, 比如CNN, CBS的poll。
的， 38%民主党， ~30%共和党，剩下的是无党派。这个比例准确性如何，仁者见仁，
9September 11, 2013 Posted by Warner Todd Huston
Today we have a great example of a polling firm allowing its political
ideology to get in the way of its work. On Tuesday, Sept. 10, two anti-
Second Amendment State Senators in Colorado were recalled by huge margins.
In the days before the recall vote took place, Public Policy Polling (PPP)
had conducted a poll that showed that the senators were about to be
eliminated by voters but the firm refused to publish its own poll because
the left-wing pol... 阅读全帖
11If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
“The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
it at your own risk.”
BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
Oct 9, 2016
When it comes to election polling, it’s the... 阅读全帖
12Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
recent polls in five states.
Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
did Trump lose ground.
State by state, lets take a look.
In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
This was barely enough to tip th... 阅读全帖
131: Gallup Poll: Mitt Romney leads President Obama 49 percent to 47 percent
among registered likely voters, the poll released Saturday shows.
2: The Rasmussen Reports: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday
shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while
President Obama earns the vote from 48%.
3:Reuters/Ipsos: Latest poll Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll showed Romney
leading Obama 47 percent to 44 percent nationwide.
4: American Research Group: New polls in two presi... 阅读全帖
14Exclusive Poll: 74% of Adults Believe Religious Freedom Trumps ObamaCare
by Mike Flynn
Barack Obama's pavlovian adherence to a progressive worldview has sparked an
unexpected challenge to his reelection hopes: his administration's "war" on
the Catholic Church. Earlier this year, the Obama Administration,
implementing ObamaCare, finalized regulations that would require all
employers, including religious institutions, to provide free access to
contraceptives, abortion-inducing drugs and steriliza... 阅读全帖
15September 9, 2016
The Battleground Poll and Trump's Path to Victory
By Bruce Walker
The GWU Battleground Poll published on September 9 shows Donald Trump a
clear path to victory: win the conservative vote. The data in this poll has
been consistent over the last two decades, and the data in the latest poll
is no different. The overwhelming majority of Americans are self-identified
The September 2016 Battleground Poll shows that 54% of all Americans are
self-identified conservativ... 阅读全帖
16Poll: Romney lead grows in daily tracking poll
The latest national poll shows Mitt Romney with the largest lead over
President Obama this campaign based on Gallup's polling. In Gallup's Daily
Tracking poll out Thursday, Romney leads the president by 7 points, with
Romney obtaining 52 percent support of likely voters to Mr. Obama's 45
The results continue the latest trend shown in Gallup's polling - Romney
gaining an advantage in a race that has been consistently close. Just four
days ag... 阅读全帖
19A new Quinnipiac poll reveals that a majority of New Jersey voters continue
to support same-sex marriage and want a referendum on the issue.
BY Julie Bolcer
May 17 2012 10:55 AM ET
According to the poll, voters in the Garden State back same-sex marriage by
53% to 42%, which is on par with findings from the winter. However, voters
across all age groups also want a referendum on the issue, a finding also in
line with polls earlier this year.
Among those who support same-sex marriage, support is ... 阅读全帖
20WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of adults say President Barack Obama does not
deserve a second term but are evenly divided on whether he will win re-
election next year, says a new Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights
some of the campaign obstacles he faces.
Although the public would prefer Obama be voted out of office, he fares
relatively well in potential matchups with Republicans Mitt Romney and Newt
Gingrich. Another bit of good news for the Democrat: For the first time
since spring, more ... 阅读全帖
21Pollsters developed all kinds of polling model or methods. Their goal is not
to make the pollling more accurate but easier for them to manipulate the
For example, all polls left or right will interview citizens using a self-
developed population sampling theory. That is, if we poll 100 citizens, we
will have to poll x% registered democrats, y% republicans and (100-x-y)
independents. z% of the total interviewed has to be blacks, w% has to be
Who determines x and y? the p... 阅读全帖
这个exit poll结果，当然如果不是这种效果，这个exit poll自然就没有那么大的魅力
25你说的 poll 是 raw poll. 任何数据不修改的 poll. WSJ 前一阵出个 raw poll,
一般 poll 都是加上自己的推断。比如 Monmouth 有个 poll, raw poll trump 领先。
Monmouth 就用 2012 年的 turnout, 还有其他什么，一加权，最后对外公布的结果就
变成了希拉里领先好几个点。但是 2012 turnout 会和现在一样吗？希拉里没有黑肤色
，相信黑人的 turnout 就不会像 2012 年。况且从 rally 人数就看出，她的 base 热
情不高， turnout 只会走低不会走高。
现在的 poll 基本都是加上自己的推断。主流媒体操纵 poll 的一个手段之一。以此来
data都拿来分析。2012年Gallap poll 错了，但是绝大部分的poll是对的。
27Good news for Donald Trump: Your poll numbers are now better than Hillary
President Trump has had a trying first six weeks as president. But at least
Americans don't seem to have buyer's remorse.
As Hillary Clinton makes her reemergence with a speech at the Kennedy Center
in Washington on Wednesday night, a new poll shows her with her worst image
numbers ever. The Suffolk University poll shows that just 35 percent of
registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared with ... 阅读全帖
28Pricing tracking and alerts service Nifti is testing the waters with a new
application called Cinch (no, not Klout’s advice-giving app also called
Cinch, but very close.) In fact, Nifti’s new app is practically a variation
on Klout’s earlier arrival, as Klout’s Cinch is about asking for
recommendations and Nifti’s Cinch is about asking for opinions. That is, it
’s meant to be a quick way to poll your friends and get their feedback by
posting photos and asking friends to choose which is best.
29Posted on Advocate.com August 11, 2011 11:25:00 AM ET
Poll: New Yorkers Pleased With Marriage Equality Law
By Julie Bolcer
NEW YORK MARRIAGE REGISTRATION FORMS X390 (FAIR) | ADVOCATE.COM
A new poll indicates that a solid majority of New Yorkers supports the
marriage equality law that took effect last month, with 63% being opposed to
the prospect of overturning the measure.
The NY1/Marist poll found that 55% of New York State residents support the
new law, 36% oppose it and 9% are unsure. Among r... 阅读全帖
30Most Americans blame Wall Street for the nation's economic predicament —
but they blame Washington more.
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
And in the democracy that fancies itself the capital of capitalism, more
than four in 10 people describe the U.S. economic system as personally
unfair to them. A USA TODAY/Gallu... 阅读全帖
31By Niall Stanage - 11/07/11 05:15 AM ET
An overwhelming majority of likely voters think it’s important to consider
a politician’s private foibles when assessing his or her suitability for
But they also contend that presidential campaigns have become dirtier over
the past generation, perhaps indicating a reluctance to accept allegations
against particular candidates at face value.
The results of this week’s The Hill Poll indicate that 85 percent of voters
regard the way a politician condu... 阅读全帖
32Washington (CNN) - Newt Gingrich's lead in the race for the GOP presidential
nomination has evaporated, according to a new national survey.
A CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday indicates that 28% of
Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say the former House
speaker is their choice for their party's nominee, with an equal amount
supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In CNN's previous national
poll, conducted last month, Gingrich held a 24%-20% margin over Romne... 阅读全帖
A just-released USA Today/Gallup Poll finds swing state voters are now split
48-48 between President Barack Obama and Republican candidate former
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — and that Obama has a four point “bounce”
since the last poll in October:
Voters in swing states are evenly split between President Obama and GOP
nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new poll from USA Today/Gallup.
The poll released late Sunday finds 48 percent of likely voters in the
nation’s key battlegrounds bac... 阅读全帖
34Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll; Rubio close second
By NBC's Domenico Montanaro
CPAC stands with Rand.
“Torch of liberty” scion Rand Paul was the choice of the plurality of
conservatives at the Conservative Political Action Conference, as Paul won
the much-hyped straw poll with 25 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was a
close second with 23 percent.
It shouldn’t be surprising that the Kentucky senator won the straw poll.
This was not a weekend of self-reflection for conservatives. It was one of
35arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
’t accus... 阅读全帖
37Breaking Poll: Rick Perry Leads Ted Cruz by 9 Points in Texas Senate Race
Jim Hoft Aug 18th, 2016 9:03 am 320 Comments
Former Governor Rick Perry leads controversial Senator Ted Cruz in the
latest poll for the Texas Senate race.
Senator Cruz stunned conservatives when he refused to endorse Donald Trump
at the RNC Convention in Cleveland.
This came after Cruz was thumped in the GOP primary race.
The crowd booed him off the consention stage.
Perry leads Cruz in a senate primary matchup ... 阅读全帖
Kamala Harris in dead heat with Trump in 2020 poll, but other Democrats win
A new poll released Public Policy Polling projects that five different
potential Democratic 2020 challengers would defeat incumbent President
Donald Trump, but at varying margins of victory.
According to the poll:
Former Vice President Joe Biden defeats Trump 54 percent to 39 percent
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders defeats Trump 52 percent to 39 percent
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren defeats Tru... 阅读全帖
40Fox News Poll: 66 percent favor path to citizenship for illegal immigrants,
By Dana Blanton
Published January 28, 2013
The latest Fox News poll shows a majority of American voters believes
illegal immigrants should be given a chance to apply for citizenship, as
long as they meet certain requirements.
The poll asked voters what government policy should be toward illegal
immigrants currently in the U.S. Two thirds -- 66 percent -- think there
should be a path to citiz... 阅读全帖
Donald Trump is at 41% support of Republican voters in a Monmouth University
poll out Monday
In second was the rising Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 14%; followed by Republican
Sen. Marco Rubio, at 10%.
Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has hit a new milestone in national polling,
garnering 41% of the Republican vote in a new national poll.
Trump is at 41% in a Monmouth University poll out Monday, holding a wide
advantage over ... 阅读全帖
44NOM, the National Organization for Marriage, Tuesday issued results of a
poll that claims, “57% of New Yorkers Reject Same-Sex Marriage, Just
One in Four Want the Legislature to Decide the Issue,” but an examination
of the published results indicate the poll methodology is severely flawed,
heavily weighted with older, conservative respondents, and the pollster, QEV
, is an organization whose marketing brags of its president’s affiliation
with the Republican Party.
NOM, identified as an “a... 阅读全帖
45CNN) – President Barack Obama's overall approval rating has dropped below
50 percent as a growing number of Americans worry that the U.S. is likely to
slip into another Great Depression within the next 12 months, according to
a new national poll.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday also indicate
that the economy overall remains issue number one to voters, with other
economic issues - unemployment, gas prices and the federal deficit - taking
three of the remaining four spot... 阅读全帖
47A new poll released by Public Policy Polling on Friday finds Sen. Ted Cruz
now leading the pack of possible candidates for the 2016 Republican
nomination. Garnering support from 20% of Republican voters nationwide, he
edges out Sen. Rand Paul who was support from 17% of GOP voters. Tied for
5th is Sen. Marco Rubio. The results are an inverse of PPP's poll in May,
which found Rubio the favorite and Cruz in 6th place for the nomination.
In May, PPP found that Rubio had almost three-times the supp... 阅读全帖
I don’t watch CNN, but I imagine Wolf Blitzer must be wetting himself like
when Bush fell below 40%. Aw, who am I kidding? Reid and Obama’s filibuster
stunt today was designed to obscure the fact Obama’s a total failure. We
can’t wait for the next NBC poll to drop so the drooling morons at MSNBC
can self-immolate on live television.
As President Barack Obama’s approval rating hits another all-time low,
a new national survey also indicates that Americans say the President has
less p... 阅读全帖
49Poll: At Least 11% of Employer-Based Insurance Plans 'Discontinued'
The mainstream media is currently either ignoring ObamaCare's problems or
writing happy talk pieces about how it has turned the corner. But out in the
real world, an Associated Press-GfK ObamaCare poll reveals that the
president's signature piece of legislation is now hurting the lives of a
much larger pool of Americans than the media is letting on. A full 69% of
those who have private or employer-based insurance will pay more n... 阅读全帖
50我的理解认为exit poll这个就是poll结束以后才发的，cnn, foxnews这么多次了