g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 SUNY Professer: Trump Now Has 87% Chance of Winning Election
Jim Hoft Oct 20th, 2016 10:09 am 78 Comments
Syracuse professor Helmut Norpoth doubled down on his election prediction
this week – and that was before the third and final debate.
Norpoth now says Trump has an 87% chance of winning election!
@mitchellvii https://t.co/wg1hwPyoRx SUNY Professor "87-99%" Trump wins.
His model correct in choosing winner back to 1912, minus 1960.
— LügenpresseVonTrapp (@Anglo_Von_Trapp) October 20, 2016
Norpoth says all of the polling projections are “bunk.”
Syracuse.com reported:
A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner
of this year’s election and he’s critiquing polls that predict the
opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year
. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of
87 to 99 percent.
Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast
out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the
Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current
polling methods are “bunk.”
The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are
flawed because they don’t reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They’re about
what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can’t tell us exactly how
voters will act on those thoughts.
“It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty,” he says. “
So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow
through.”
Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates
’ performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to
forecast results. The model correctly predicted the victor in every
presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail.
Running the model on earlier campaigns comes up with the correct outcome
for every race since 1912, except the 1960 election.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/suny-professer-trump-now-87-chance-winning-election/ | t**o
发帖数: 620 | 2 白痴！ 预测总统居然看历史cycle啊！
那你怎么不去predict stock market？
任何模型都有一个outliner的，这个Trump 就是 outliner！ | g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 3 outliner是什么？
你不是在显示自己白痴吧？
【在 t**o 的大作中提到】
: 白痴！ 预测总统居然看历史cycle啊！
: 那你怎么不去predict stock market？
: 任何模型都有一个outliner的，这个Trump 就是 outliner！
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