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发帖数: 462 | 1 JPMorgan officially forecasts a coronavirus-driven recession will rock the
US and Europe by July
Ben Winck
Mar. 13, 2020, 11:51 AM
Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images
A new economic-growth estimate from JPMorgan projects that a recession will
hit the US and European economies by July.
The bank said its views of the coronavirus outbreak "have evolved
dramatically in recent weeks." JPMorgan economists now expect US GDP to
shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second.
Eurozone GDP could contract by 1.8% and 3.3% over the same periods, the
economists added.
The "sudden stop" to economic activity through quarantines, event
cancellations, and social distancing contributed to the downward revision,
alongside recent weeks of financial-market chaos.
"As we resign ourselves to the inevitability of a large and broad-based
shock," nations' economic policy responses are key to preventing an
even
longer downturn, the economists added.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
The US's biggest bank expects the coronavirus pandemic to sink the US and
European economies into a deep recession as soon as this summer.
JPMorgan's views of the virus "have evolved dramatically in recent
weeks" as
the outbreak has spread further around the world and fueled the worst stock
-market sell-offs in decades, the bank's economists wrote in a Thursday note.
The US economy could shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second,
JPMorgan projected, while the eurozone economy could contract by 1.8% and 3
.3% in the same periods.
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative
gross-domestic-product growth. The bank's emerging-markets economists haven'
t updated their growth estimates, but "evolving news on the virus and
the
material tightening" in those markets' financial conditions make it &
quot;
reasonable to expect further downward revisions" in global first-half
GDP,
the economists wrote. | m******c
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