S*********n
发帖数: 4050 | 1 关于经济危机的起源，是regulation还是deregulation.
认为是regulation造成经济危机的请提供资料。TeddyBear请出手。
============================================
Officially the Great Recession started in December 2007, long before most
Americans on Main Street realized what was about to happen. And according to
the NBER, the Great Recession ended in July 2009, which most Americans on
Main Street cynically laughed at knowing full well their recession was not
over at that time.
There is a lot of blame to go around for the Great Recessio... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 2 ECRI 全文：
U.S. Economy Tipping into Recession
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed
tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do
to head it off.
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but
on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading
Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and
Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading
Ind... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 这么多不利因素合力作用，Fed恐怕也是无力回天了。。。
By David Rosenberg
1. The Philly Fed index: The Philly Fed index came in at -12.9 in July
and in the past three months has averaged -11.8. Rosenberg writes that an -
11.8 average over three months has "coincided with the U.S. economy tipping
over into recession seven of the eight times that such a negative reading
has occurred over such a time frame."
2. Retail sales: Retail sales crumbled in June falling 0.5 percent,
declining three months in a row. Looking b... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Biden Blames High Unemployment on ‘This God-Awful Recession We’ve
Inherited’
By Terence P. Jeffrey
March 29, 2012
(CNSNews.com) - At a campaign event in Iowa on Wednesday, Vice President Joe
Biden blamed the continuing high level of unemployment in the United States
on what he called “this God-awful recession we’ve inherited.”
According to the non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research, the last
recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009—just five months
into President Barack... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 5 看了Bordo的NBER文章吗？给你个link
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2012/wp1214.pdf
很明显abstract讲的和WSJ讲的不一样。原因在NBER文章和wsj的article目标读者不一
样。NBER的文章讲有3个recession不一样，WSJ讲就2008的recession和以前不一样。
再看NBER文章里面的Table 2，1880-2011年的recession中有housing bust的只有1927-
1929，1933-1937，和2008这一次，从这个数据和文章的abstract就可以看出，NBER这
篇文章很难和WSJ的评论联系在一起，NBER因为是给研究者读的，很多是Ph.D.做教授的
,所以文章写的更严谨一点，结论下的更小心。而WSJ的评论确实偏离了文章的本意，当
然WSJ的target reader完全是没有时间看原文的。
楼主是不是属于没有时间看原文的那？
Abstract:
Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 On January 21 when the Canadian Central Bank unexpected slashed interest
rates, I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up.
Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three
years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term
rates.
I saw no other person mention the inversion at the time. An inverted yield
curve generally portends recession.
Nine days later, the Canadian yield curve is still inverted. Let's compare
what I posted about the curve on January 21... 阅读全帖 |
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l******r
发帖数: 4021 | 7 http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/03/news/economy/shutdown-debt-ceil
/index.html?iid=Lead
Forget the current government shutdown. Economists say it's the upcoming deb
t ceiling impasse that could plunge the nation into a recession.
About half of the 22 economists surveyed by CNNMoney say a recession will be
unavoidable if Congress fails to raise the nation's debt ceiling before the
Treasury runs out of cash later this month.
A couple more say a recession is possible depending on how far past the dead... 阅读全帖 |
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n**o
发帖数: 11 | 8 I need to classify the recessions from a discrete AR(1) process or a
continuous geometric Brownian motion. Because I do not explicitly specify
the regimes of recessions and booms in the model, I am thinking about using
the shocks from the AR model to determine the recession periods by following
the leading economic index (LEI) proposed by the conference board.
However, I can not find their documents on how they determine the recessions
. From google search, some news articles read that the confe... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 9:46am EST
By Robin Emmott and Michelle Martin
BRUSSELS/BERLIN (Reuters) - The euro zone debt crisis dragged the bloc into
its second recession since 2009 in the third quarter despite modest growth
in Germany and France, data showed on Thursday.
The French and German economies both managed 0.2 percent growth in the July-
to-September period but their resilience could not save the 17-nation bloc
from contraction as the likes of The Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Austria
shrank.
Economic output in ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****u
发帖数: 3130 | 10 According to a report from Bank of America's Merrill Lynch that was released
on Wednesday, their model puts the chances of the U.S. falling into
recession above 80%. This varies widely from other economists such as the
Fed's Thomas Hoenig, who on Thursday told CNBC the chances of recession were
closer to 20%.
According to BofA/Merrill, the drivers behind the spike in the chances for
recession are the two most recent economic reports – the Philly Fed Index
and the University of Michigan's Sentime... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 11 Reuters) - The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession,
with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to
research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.
While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.
S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the
end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed
bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 Government Jobs Untouched by the Great Recession
Private sector down 300k jobs as public employment remains stable
By Don Carrington
June 13, 2011
CJ Photo by Don Carrington
Gov. Bev Perdue, using her veto stamp Sunday to reject the General Assembly'
s 2011-12 budget, said the spending plan would take North Carolina "
backwards."
RALEIGH — Gov. Bev Perdue and her Democratic allies have claimed that the
budget passed by the General Assembly would decimate public employment in
North Carolina. And ... 阅读全帖 |
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j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 13 McConnell delays start of Senate's August recess
The Senate will delay the start of its annual August recess to give
lawmakers more time to work on “important legislative issues” and winnow
the backlog of President Trump's pending nominations, Majority Leader Mitch
McConnell said Tuesday.
“In order to provide more time to complete action on important legislative
items and process nominees that have been stalled by a lack of cooperation
from our friends across the aisle, the Senate will delay the... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | 14 For stock market investors, an inverted yield curve is a sign that equities
could peak before an economic recession hits. It also can be a precursor to
a bear market in stocks, where equities fall 20% or more from highs.
While an inverted yield curve has been a reliable indicator of slowing U.S.
economies, the timing of an upcoming recession has been uncertain.
Historically, prolonged "curve inversions" have usually preceded major
economic slowdowns by about a year.
What Is An Inverted Yield Cur... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 15 Larry Kudlow
|
Posted: Aug 01, 2016 12:01 AM
This economy may be perilously close to recession. That was the message of
the second-quarter real GDP report and its meager 1.2 percent growth rate.
Over the past year, real GDP has slipped to a paltry 1.2 percent. Business
investment continues to fall. Building and factory construction has dropped
sharply. Productivity is flat. The profits recession is still in force.
And what's the Hillary Clinton plan? Tax us into prosperity.
In her own words at t... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 16 经济要是没啥问题，民主党可不就剩 通 乌，通 俄，通。。。。。。whatever
CNBC:
‘Bond King’ Gundlach says a recession is ‘very unlikely’ in 2020
DoubleLine Capital CEO and Wall Street “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach is not
worried about a possible recession in 2020 even though he doesn’t think
China and the U.S. will get a trade deal done anytime soon.
“We’ve never had a recession without negative leading indicators,”
Gundlach told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday. “Leading indicators are
low right now … but numbers that are rolli... 阅读全帖 |
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n********r
发帖数: 719 | 17 是否大多数浴室或洗手间的天花板上都没有insulated material?
我这么问是因为看到home depot和lowes上卖的recessed light shower kit(含housing
和trim)除了一个型号外全都不是IC rated，而这唯一的一个型号还是4寸的，感觉是不
是小了点。如果bathroom装recessed light仍然需要考虑insulated material的安全问
题的话，没道理市面上这么多型号都不是IC rated啊
由此引申出的另外一个问题是，在这种潮湿环境下装recessed light,到底是哪部分需
要考虑防水问题？是housing,trim还是灯泡（或者led module）？假如说只是trim需要
考虑防水的话，那我就完全可以装一个IC rated的普通housing,再配一个防水的trim就
行了，没必要像现在这样这么辛苦的找IC rated的shower recessed light kit了 |
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u*******g
发帖数: 224 | 18 打算在客厅和书房装recessed lights, 需要很亮的, 看书写字就不再需要台灯. 看到
一些医院/商店的recessed lights也不是很亮. 是不是除了灯炮外, 要买特别款式的
recessed light才会特别亮? 比如灯炮位置不是太深陷, 撒光面积大, 等等. 大家可
不可以推荐一款recessed light, 非常亮的但是光线柔和的? 多谢. |
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t********2
发帖数: 638 | 19 http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/recession-is-a-done-
Quotes:
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but
on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading
Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and
Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading
Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-
looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did o... 阅读全帖 |
|
o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 20 The global economic recovery is running out of steam, leaving the euro zone
stuck in a mild recession and the United States at risk of following suit,
the OECD said on Monday, sharply cutting its forecasts.
Andrew Unangst | Getty Images
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
The threat of even more devastating downturns looms if the euro zone does
not get to grips with its debt crisis and U.S. lawmakers fail to agree a
spending-reduction plan, the Organ... 阅读全帖 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 21 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/investors-should-embrace-a-recession-morgan-
stanley-says.html
Morgan Stanley stock strategists, among the Street's more bearish, have been
expecting more downward earnings revisions and, in fact, they see an
earnings recession.
That recession could also be followed by a mild economic recession, but the
analysts say there's no need for fear and investors should "embrace it."
The bad earnings news should help drive another correction in the market,
which would prov... 阅读全帖 |
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d*c
发帖数: 588 | 22 Yet, stocks are firing on all cylinders. But don't let that fool you, he
says.
"A couple of months before the Great Recession, markets hit an all-time high
. In 1990, right when that recession was starting, markets hit an all-time
high," he noted. "In '01, they actually hit a high after the recession
started. So, the market could be a little off on recession timing." |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 23 Many big public companies are likely to report strong second-quarter profits
, but that isn't the story on Main Street, where small businesses are
grappling with jittery customers, rising costs and tight credit.
Small business owners are struggling to get enough loans to grow their
businesses or hire people, even as they face rising commodity prices, WSJ's
Sarah Needleman reports. (Photo: AP Photo.)
The owners of many small businesses say economic uncertainty and
inflationary pressures have led ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 By MELANIE TROTTMAN
A federal appeals court on Friday ruled that President Barack Obama violated
the Constitution when he bypassed the Senate to fill vacancies on the
National Labor Relations Board.
A federal appeals court ruled that President Obama violated the Constitution
when he bypassed the Senate to fill vacancies on a labor panel. Aaron
Zitner reports on Lunch Break. Photo: AP.
The three-judge panel said that as a result, the labor-relations board has
lacked the quorum it needs to conduct... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 25 September 28, 2016
Uh, Hillary, Your Hubby Caused the 2008 Recession
By Jack Cashill
On the debate stage Monday night, Hillary Clinton smugly repeated the big
lie that Democrats have been telling with something close to impunity since
2008.
“We had the worst financial crisis, the Great Recession, the worst since
the 1930s,” said Hillary. “That was in large part because of tax policies
that slashed taxes on the wealthy, failed to invest in the middle class,
took their eyes off of Wall Street, and... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 26 September 28, 2016
Uh, Hillary, Your Hubby Caused the 2008 Recession
By Jack Cashill
On the debate stage Monday night, Hillary Clinton smugly repeated the big
lie that Democrats have been telling with something close to impunity since
2008.
“We had the worst financial crisis, the Great Recession, the worst since
the 1930s,” said Hillary. “That was in large part because of tax policies
that slashed taxes on the wealthy, failed to invest in the middle class,
took their eyes off of Wall Street, and... 阅读全帖 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 27 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Taikonaut (遨游太空) 于 (Sun Apr 27 08:01:23 2008) 提到:
发信人: quant8 (quant8), 信区: Quant
标 题: Nobel Winner Stiglitz: U.S. Facing Long Recession
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Apr 27 01:05:20 2008)
Nobel Winner Stiglitz: U.S. Facing Long Recession
The U.S. economy is already in recession -- and may echo the 1930s, Nobel
Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday.
"The big question is: how will the government respond?" said Stiglitz, in an
interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Col |
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y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 28 recessed light显然照明不会很均匀，当然有些人喜欢不均匀的照明，不过完全可以加
个灯罩做到不均匀的照明。而且我个人认为天花板上出现几个黑洞，很难看的样子，还
不如挂几个漂亮的灯，灯的选择这么多，怎么可能不能配家具。
装recessed灯还算容易，打洞而已，等到过几年你想换吊灯，把那个破洞补起来。花的
钱显然比打洞更贵。刚买了房子时候总想折腾，其实都是瞎折腾。省下银子去旅游多好
，不要被这帮奸商蒙蔽，今天流行recess，明天流行水晶吊，后天流行烛台灯，浪费钱
不说，还浪费地球资源，加重气候变暖。
了。 |
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a*****0
发帖数: 3319 | 29 买的房子family room, living room都没有灯。 想装recessed light. 请推荐湾区装
recessed light的师傅。哪里人都行，价钱不是贵得离谱就行。
另外请问recessed light一般布局怎么弄才好看？我觉得工工整整的两排好像不好看。
多谢。 |
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z***m
发帖数: 1602 | 30 厨房四个角放，中间island吊灯3给，不知道够不够亮。 感觉recessive light的光比
较集中，不发散。我看很多厨房放了7，8个recessive light，recessive light是不是
主要用于装饰而不是照明啊？ |
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h***z
发帖数: 5043 | 31 这几天一直在研究我家的浴室为什么power不稳定，现在想来我家shower上面的recess
light特别老旧了，上面的垫圈也都老化的快散了，我就去HD买了一个一体的recess
light装上了，请各位说说会不会是这个不密封，上面太潮了弄得电灯忽凉忽灭的亚
如果可能，我应该用什么样的recess light呢，原来是非常老式的玻璃加上金属，不过
中间放了一个海绵的垫圈。多谢各位了！ |
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b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 33 A presentation by Fidelity
"In two out of the four most recent recessions (1980 and 1990), the entire
market decline occurred prior to the announcement of recession."
"1990 –The circumstances surrounding this recession might be the most
similar to today: a real-estate-induced economic downturn; a banking system
spillover; the Federal Reserve already easing; and average stock valuations" |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 34 Future Recession Risks: An Update
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-
By Travis J. Berge, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda
In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board
’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S.
recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt
crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover,
the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the ... 阅读全帖 |
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l***o
发帖数: 5337 | 35 现在看来大选惨败的共和党是secretly盼望一次recession，所以他们中的很多人会坚
持完全不让步。奥巴马现在已经退无可退（实际已经让步很多了，比如延续大多数减税
方案），所以fiscal cliff是有可能的（我还是认为概率不大）。现在我们假设发生，
想想以后会怎样。
首先这会出现美国历史上财政政策和货币政策的最大背离：QE4刚推出，疯狂地松货币
，财政政策却开始更疯狂地紧缩。政府支出减少税收增加和完全的不确定性导致的混乱
，几乎肯定会把美国经济推向recession。但问题是对股市的影响到底会有多大。我现
在的看法是：影响不会大，如果下跌大概是买入的时机。
这次recession和过去不同，因为这次是个‘人造衰退’，一旦共和党教训够了对手，
把失败情绪发泄出来，可以随时打住。协议随时可以达成。一片混乱之后经济进入正轨
的速度大概就是几星期（当然对美国信心的损害是长期的）。cliff实际是个不太恰当
的比喻，因为影响将是慢慢发生的，所以后果基本可控。因此对实体经济的影响虽然很
坏，但完全不会是08-09的重演。另外，现在股市似乎已经在一步步pricein这种可能：
如果cli... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****0
发帖数: 3319 | 36 买的房子family room, living room都没有灯。 想装recessed light. 请推荐湾区装
recessed light的师傅。哪里人都行。
另外请问recessed light一般布局怎么弄才好看？我觉得工工整整的两排好像不好看。
多谢。 |
|
p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 37 Stocks Pricing In Recession, But That Is 'Unlikely': Cohen
ABBY JOSEPH COHEN, RECESSION, CNBC, MARGO D. BELLER, STOCK MARKET, STANDARD
& POOR'S, S&P, DOW
Posted By: Margo D. Beller | Special to CNBC.com
CNBC.com | 19 Aug 2011 | 04:27 PM ET
The stock market may be pricing in a recession, but such a severe slowdown
in the U.S. economy is an "unlikely scenario," well-known stock market guru
Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC Friday.
"Let’s be very clear, there are some fundamental worries," the Goldman
Sa... 阅读全帖 |
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L*****d
发帖数: 5093 | 38 The S&P 500 is poised to hit a record high on Monday, up more than 20% year
to date and completing a rebound from an August sell-off.
“Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported over the last month, just 32
mention recession on their calls,” says Nick Mazing of Sentieo.
The economic narrative has shifted from “recession” earlier in the year to
“slower, but stable growth,” a far-less dire scenario, says CFRA chief
equity strategist Sam Stovall. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 39 by Rossputin
When even a New Republic writer suggests that Barack Obama’s Wednesday
recess appointments to the Consumer Protection Bureau and the National Labor
Relations Board are probably unconstitutional, you know we’re in for a
good fight…at least if Senate Republicans have the courage to take it on.
The left-leaning Politico also notes that “But President Barack Obama’s
decision to jam the Senate and install three labor nominees and a consumer
watchdog without a confirmation vote raises uns... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 40 You clearly do not understand the difference between regular recession
coupled with financial crises, and recession caused by housing-bubble-
induced-financial crises.
By the way, when I was in graduate school, our professors always take WSJ
articles as examples of bad economics articles. WSJ articles are always
half truth, like 半瓶水. It is the same for Wall Street people on economic
topics, always half truth. The reason is that those people do not have the
time to read, they always skim on e... 阅读全帖 |
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n****n
发帖数: 568 | 41 技术上来讲现在两院是在recess啊，到28号结束，这之后估计obama没啥机会了，这两
个星期是关键。除非他们明天宣布end of recess来破这个局？
有时候真是感叹历史可能就是被一些偶然事件给影响的。要是这次让obama提名高法法
官成功，以后美国的走向可真是完全给变了。 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 42 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: walstudio (午夜未眠人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Recession 有两种 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 1 11:36:38 2009, 美东)
【 以下文字转载自 immortalclub 俱乐部 】
发信人: walstudio (午夜未眠人), 信区: immortalclub
标 题: Recession 有两种
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 1 11:31:29 2009, 美东)
For rich text format, check out the same post I made on
http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=28295&hilit=
点评
讲Reccession的文章我读过很多，但大部分要么是故弄悬虚，要么是避重就轻，下面这
篇是我读过最容易懂，也是最到位的.
强烈建议读完，如果实在没兴趣，概要: Reccession有两钟，一种是产能过剩造成的，
一种是信贷危机造成 |
|
q**i
发帖数: 367 | 43 想给厨房装recess light,可是老公说在天花板上钻控比较有破坏性，那里以后就是个
洞了，如果位置没设计好什么的，也很难返工了， 请问装修达人们，recess light的
洞有补上的东西什么的么？
还有就是家里的浴室的vanity top是一般的crane stone什么的， bowl也是那种陶瓷厚
厚边drop in的，容易积水， 换vanity top贵么？还是可以只换bowl,留着vanity top. |
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l*****o
发帖数: 26631 | 44 本来想装recessed light的， 结果网上搜了下说上面铺insulation的话很容易有火灾
问题， 留洞的话有保温问题...
想请问下有没有人ranch天花板上装recessed light的？ |
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j********8
发帖数: 1339 | 45 "亮不亮？"
你装它的目的是什么？ 要的是柔和的光吧， 想亮直接上大吊灯。 俺老婆出浴的时候
俺开recessed light 欣赏一下. 我在family room 装的还有落地 profolio， 很少用
recessed light. |
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y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 46 不要装，这种东西就是fashion，过几年说不定你看recessed就觉得极丑，看到鼓起来
反而好看，而且recessed的修理麻烦，发光效率差，没事不要折腾，要折腾也要折腾比
较有意义的事情。 |
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D******r
发帖数: 5237 | 47 同意。顶灯不好看可以换成一个好看的。Recessed确实照明不给力
来反而好看，而且recessed的修理麻烦，发光效率差，没事不要折腾，要折腾也要折腾
比较有意义的事情。 |
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j*********5
发帖数: 6221 | 48 卧室如果不是很大没必要装resess，一般recess装客厅或厨房这些比较大的地方
我家装recess和普通灯一个价格，$50一个，在attic上钻眼穿线，你如果在湾区我可以
把装修师傅的电话给你 |
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z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 49 不是recessive light，是recessed light. |
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s**********a
发帖数: 3273 | 50 多大的房子要这么多 recessive light？
前天刚看的文章，说室内设计常见错误之一就是过多使用 recessive lights. |
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