u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190453740457655420
The PDMA sold the T-bills at a uniform yield of 4.80%, down from 4.85% at
the previous auction Aug. 9, far below the 49.9% yield on Greek two-year
bonds on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb. |
k********f
发帖数: 6033 | |
b*****e
发帖数: 53215 | 3 破产了就是废纸
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190453740457655420
: The PDMA sold the T-bills at a uniform yield of 4.80%, down from 4.85% at
: the previous auction Aug. 9, far below the 49.9% yield on Greek two-year
: bonds on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb.
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 4 2-year： 45.92%,
5-year： 28.56%，
10-year：17.54%.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/291657-greek-debt-being-given-a
The yields discussed were quoted from The Wall Street Journal for closing
prices on Friday (Sept. 2) - two-year 45.92%, five-year 28.56% and the 10-
year 17.54%. Here are the estimates:
There is currently a 10% probability of getting full principal
repayment on a two-year Greek bond at maturity. Calculation: 45% a year
times two years is 90% of principal. 10% principal repayment gives 100%
repayment. This is the same as saying the market is predicting the most
probable principal recovery is around 10%.
The inversion of the above logic is that there is about a 90%
probability that full default will occur at maturity.
By linear interpolation it can be estimated that there is about 50%
probability that only 50% of principal will be repaid at maturity. |
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 5 据说一年期的利率是 86%，找不到出处了。
【在 k********f 的大作中提到】
: Default is on the way.
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 6 买作空欧元的ETF可以赚钱啊：DRR
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 破产了就是废纸
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l********g
发帖数: 5070 | 7 还有这种好东西...是不是稳赚啊？
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 买作空欧元的ETF可以赚钱啊：DRR
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 8 我的理解，default只是延期还债，并不是赖账永远不还了，对吗？
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 据说一年期的利率是 86%，找不到出处了。
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 9 就怕德国慷慨出手，抗住欧元，所以还有风险，目前情况不明朗。
看明天德国最高法院的判决吧：救助希腊违宪。
【在 l********g 的大作中提到】
: 还有这种好东西...是不是稳赚啊？
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 10 我的感觉是，要么德国放弃欧洲一体化，保住自己，让猪去死。
要么就是保住欧洲一体化，一起去死。
要是我的话，反正猪要死，就先让猪死，欧洲是否一体化以后再议。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 就怕德国慷慨出手，抗住欧元，所以还有风险，目前情况不明朗。
: 看明天德国最高法院的判决吧：救助希腊违宪。
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m*t
发帖数: 7490 | 11 看来现在可以无脑买入美股了--欧元保不住，美元至少延寿30年
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 我的感觉是，要么德国放弃欧洲一体化，保住自己，让猪去死。
: 要么就是保住欧洲一体化，一起去死。
: 要是我的话，反正猪要死，就先让猪死，欧洲是否一体化以后再议。
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 12 欧元不保，世界经济也会动荡，经济危机中买什么都危险。
【在 m*t 的大作中提到】
: 看来现在可以无脑买入美股了--欧元保不住，美元至少延寿30年
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b*****2
发帖数: 11103 | |
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 14 boa要倒闭？我刚开了chase checking account以防到时候boa倒了连支票都没得用。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 欧元不保，世界经济也会动荡，经济危机中买什么都危险。
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 15 欧元暂时不会解体。只要把猪踢出去就可以了。
不过欧洲太自由化了，把猪踢出去，可能其他国家的不知死活的国民不同意。
要倒他们自己被拖累得卖儿卖女，才知道理想要向现实低头。
【在 b*****2 的大作中提到】
: 欧盟散伙，妹蒂又可以海屁几十年了
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 16 猪在吃饱之前是不会走的，德国等着出血吧，把猪的债务都取消了吧。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 欧元暂时不会解体。只要把猪踢出去就可以了。
: 不过欧洲太自由化了，把猪踢出去，可能其他国家的不知死活的国民不同意。
: 要倒他们自己被拖累得卖儿卖女，才知道理想要向现实低头。
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a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 17 为什么时间越长，Yield越低？ Typo？
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 2-year： 45.92%,
: 5-year： 28.56%，
: 10-year：17.54%.
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/291657-greek-debt-being-given-a
: The yields discussed were quoted from The Wall Street Journal for closing
: prices on Friday (Sept. 2) - two-year 45.92%, five-year 28.56% and the 10-
: year 17.54%. Here are the estimates:
: There is currently a 10% probability of getting full principal
: repayment on a two-year Greek bond at maturity. Calculation: 45% a year
: times two years is 90% of principal. 10% principal repayment gives 100%
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 18 远期的违约风险小，估计有一些collateral吧，不清楚。
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 为什么时间越长，Yield越低？ Typo？
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s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 19 default就是赖账不还。赖全部或者赖部分。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 我的理解，default只是延期还债，并不是赖账永远不还了，对吗？
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 20 全民公决，赖账有理。
【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: default就是赖账不还。赖全部或者赖部分。
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p****r
发帖数: 4348 | 21 1年的88%呢
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190453740457655420
: The PDMA sold the T-bills at a uniform yield of 4.80%, down from 4.85% at
: the previous auction Aug. 9, far below the 49.9% yield on Greek two-year
: bonds on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb.
|
j*a
发帖数: 14423 | 22 民主社会，ok！
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 全民公决，赖账有理。
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | |
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 24 In Defense Of Angela Merkel
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/09/06/in-defens
by Walter Russell Mead
In the midst of criticism aimed at Angela Merkel for her apparent
unwillingness to put Germany’s full economic weight behind euro rescue, the
FT’s Gideon Rachman makes some important points in support of her cautious
approach:
First, the chancellor’s critics often fail to acknowledge the real
political and legal constraints that she is operating under. Tomorrow, the
German constitutional court will rule on the legality of the proposals to
increase the fund for bailing out debt-ridden members of the eurozone. Later
this month, the German parliament will vote on the issue. It would be both
arrogant and foolish for Ms Merkel to assume that she can simply win all
these battles, when both German public opinion and many influential voices
within the country are deeply opposed to further bail-outs. Similarly, any
proposal to create eurobonds would require new EU treaties, which would be
very hard to get ratified in Germany – let alone the rest of the eurozone.
Those who are calling for ever bolder German actions, regardless of the
legal and political difficulties, seem to have little respect for the
country’s democracy.
Second, saying that the German chancellor should do “whatever it takes
” to save the euro, assumes that we know what it would take. Eurobonds are
the latest panacea, recommended by many of the same people who assured us
years ago that the euro would be a secure currency. Ms Merkel has no real
idea whether they would work. But we do know that expanding the bail-out
fund (as will almost certainly happen), or creating eurobonds, would mean
piling more and more potential costs and liabilities on to the German
taxpayer.
Third, it is not simply vulgar, tabloid prejudice to believe that if
more money is funnelled to southern Europe, much of it will be wasted. In
countries such as Greece and Italy, basic functions of the state – such as
tax collection and the awarding of public contracts – are frequently
corrupt. In the past, EU money has actually fostered corruption.
Read the entire article here. In times of crisis the screamers call for
simple and immediate solutions to complex problems; Angela Merkel will be
well advised to consider her next steps carefully. The critics are right
that Europe needs to act and sooner rather than later, but after so many
missteps and failed solutions, Europe needs to think more carefully — and
Germany’s chancellor must make sure she can carry her country with her once
she has chosen her course of action. |
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 25 假的吧。怎么短期比长期高。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190453740457655420
: The PDMA sold the T-bills at a uniform yield of 4.80%, down from 4.85% at
: the previous auction Aug. 9, far below the 49.9% yield on Greek two-year
: bonds on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb.
|
c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 26
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405311190453740457655420
: The PDMA sold the T-bills at a uniform yield of 4.80%, down from 4.85% at
: the previous auction Aug. 9, far below the 49.9% yield on Greek two-year
: bonds on Tuesday, according to Tradeweb.
|
c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 27 是这样的
近期的债到期要付principal全部付清，如果不付就要roll over
但是市场认为希腊不可能有能力roll over，就是卖不出去新的债来付旧债
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 远期的违约风险小，估计有一些collateral吧，不清楚。
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