j*****n
发帖数: 24 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/the-53-rally-in-steel-prices-that-points-to-china-s-rapid-shift
The 54% Rally in Steel Prices That Points to China's Rapid Shift
April 20, 2016 — 11:38 PM EDT
Updated on April 21, 2016 — 8:13 AM EDT
China Futures Exchange Says Client’s Hedging Caused Flash Crash
Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway
Inc., speaks during an interview in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Oct. 22,
2013. Warren Buffett and his late first wife, Susan, gave and pledged
billions to each of their three children to fund charitable foundations.
Howard, an Illinois farmer, picked global hunger as his target. Photographer
Buffett Awaits $8 Billion of ‘Bad News’ With Kraft Heinz Payment
The King Abdullah financial district sits on the horizon seen from a
skyscraper under construction in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, Jan. 10,
2016. Saudi Arabian stocks led Gulf Arab markets lower after oil extended
its slump from the lowest close since 2004. Photographer: Waseem Obaidi/
Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia Said to Eye Bond Sale of as Much as $15 Billion
FGE Chairman: Oil Prices to Reach $55-$60 by End of Year
`You've got a tight market, you've got momentum,' Weston says
Iron ore, steel demand is getting better, Credit Suisse says
Steel reinforcement bars are about as unglamorous an industrial product as
one can get. Their rally in China this week is anything but, with a surge to
the highest since 2014 that’s helping to boost iron ore.
Rebar futures jumped for the fourth straight day on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, advancing 6.1 percent to 2,750 yuan ($424) a metric ton. The
product that’s used to strengthen concrete is 20 percent higher this week,
and up 54 percent in 2016. Iron ore futures in Dalian rose to the highest in
more than a year as benchmark Metal Bulletin Ltd. prices powered above $70
for the first time since January 2015.
“You’ve got a tight market, you’ve got momentum, and you’ve got this
fundamental driver for steel in the government boosting the infrastructure
and housing side of things,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at
IG Ltd. in Melbourne. “The rebar price is really leading the iron ore price
at the moment.”
The rallies in steel and iron ore in 2016 are in contrast to last year, when
slowing economic growth in China hammered prices and too much supply chased
too little demand. This year, policy makers in China have talked up growth
and added stimulus, presiding over a revival in the property market. Steel
demand in China may increase as much as 10 percent in 2016, according to
Credit Suisse Group AG.
‘Getting Better’
“Firstly and perhaps of no surprise intuitively (but often overlooked in
the market) rising steel and iron ore prices suggest demand is getting
better,” Credit Suisse said in a report on global steel markets dated April
20. “The magnitude of the iron ore and steel price hikes suggest that not
only is demand improving but expectations should have moved very much into
the inflationary camp for steel and iron ore.”
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao climbed 8.8 percent to $70.
46 a dry ton on Thursday, according to Metal Bulletin. The price, which is
set daily, has rebounded 84 percent since bottoming in December, surprising
many banks that had forecast further losses in 2016.
Mills in China, which make about half the world’s supply, have boosted
output to an all-time high as property prices in bigger cities jumped and
higher steel prices improved margins, reversing a squeeze from last year.
Crude-steel production soared to 70.65 million tons in March, according to
data last week.
The record output by mills has so far failed to replenish inventories as the
government cranks up stimulus. Stockpiles of rebar contracted for a sixth
week, declining 6.8 percent in the period to April 15, for the biggest drop
since October 2014, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology
Co.
China’s economy gathered pace in March as a surge in new credit helped the
property sector to rebound, with housing values in first-tier cities soaring
. The trend has drawn concern from investors including billionaire George
Soros, who said on Wednesday the credit-growth figures should be viewed as a
warning.
“Why steel production jumped so rapidly was because the profitability of
the steelmakers have improved dramatically,” Georgi Slavov, head of basic
resources research at Marex Spectron, said in an interview in Singapore. The
price gains “will not be valid for too long because supply of iron ore
will improve, production of steel will gradually weaken, therefore demand
for iron ore will weaken.” |
