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Stock版 - 我的天然气的分析
相关主题
Attention, oil price may keep going upLower oil prices coming???
人类的明灯,沃勒斯坦的blog从这篇文中沙特的立场看,油价绝无可能短时间内返回40
英美,伊朗,石油,沙特,中国 (转载)OPEC meeting agreement reached?
Exxon CEO says oil prices not yet hurting economy油可能要爆泄一把鸟
下周石油很可能跌(中东和OPEC,欧元)。。股市呢?沙特这王八蛋也不知道在原油上怎么想的
Renewable- and solar-energy stocks skirt sector's selloffWikileaks: Saudi Arabia's oil reserves overstated
opec boosting production to keep pressure on u.s. shaleSeems like there would be no rebound today
完鸟,原油废了Market is hammered down by 4 reasons today
相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: trump话题: saudi话题: oil话题: opec话题: arabia
进入Stock版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
1
赌对了方向,也上了船,但是现在还他妈的亏钱。
操!上船上早了!
CHK这个公司的管理层实在太傻逼和短视了,根本没有对长期形势的估计,
就是看着油价高涨就往原油靠,前一段的收购太傻逼了。刚买了原油资产,
原油价格掉了30-40%。
这么衰的傻逼管理层也真是少见了。
我等一段出来,就不碰这个垃圾公司了。
前一阵有人找我来问天然气怎么样,这是我的回信。
自己拿时间表和天然气价格表对一下。
寄信人: awaydream (昆仑天下)
标 题: Re: 原油现在处于暴风雨的前夜,马上要来一波大的
发信站: 未名空间 (Wed Oct 17 18:30:37 2018)
来 源: 152.
不是大牛,我就是喜欢放个炮。
我手上有天然气股,你不要出去乱讲,我还有CHK,你也可以
选其他的更好的天然气股。
成本4刀左右,暂时不准备丢。
我的判读和计划如下:
1. 今年冬天很可能是会比往年冷
这个是加分项,不冷也不会减分。另外美帝自己的长期预报也说是寒冬。
从明尼苏达前两天下雪看,很可能回事寒冬。如果连续来几波大寒流,
那就发了,心忧炭贱愿天寒呀。
如果没有特别冷,也不要怕,暖冬的可能性很小。长周期来讲,
暖冬很多年了,气候要逐渐进入小寒冰期,这是我相信的,你可以不信。
总之,暖也暖不到哪里去。
如果真的特别暖,那只能认栽,没办法。
2. 天然气库存比往年低 20% 左右
这个低于往年,以及5年平均线已经将近1年了。等于说,这1年以来,
天然气的产出和消耗基本持平,供大于求的情况开始改观了。
3. 世界能源转型
天然气消耗量大增,中国要搞清洁能源,天然气和LNG进口量大增。
去年冬天北京天气雾霾就少了很多,今年只会变严,不会松懈。
天然气电厂等等,天然气消耗量日增,但是产量进入瓶颈了。
目前的价格,很多页岩气产都不赚钱,没人会扩大生产,所以供不
应求必然导致价格上升。
4. 由俭入奢易,由奢入俭难
人们用上天然气之后,就甩不掉,而且会越用越多,除非涨价涨得
实在受不了。所以,天然的前途肯定是好的。
另外,我的主管判断是,美国会拉高油价给中国放血,消耗中国的
外汇。天然气也会跟着水涨船高。
最后说一句,我有天然气,但是没有重仓,赌输了也不要紧。
我重仓了粮食股,风水轮流转,美帝该用粮食收割别的国家了,
另外有分红,实在不行就当存CD。
我炒股不追求短时涨跌,大部分就是依靠自己的瞎判断的大形势,
调整比较慢。大形势很复杂,变数多,经常有波折,你要自己判断好
再跟,输了也不要怪我。
谢谢
寄信人: awaydream (昆仑天下)
标 题: Re: 原油现在处于暴风雨的前夜,马上要来一波大的
发信站: 未名空间 (Wed Oct 17 18:57:25 2018)
来 源: 152.
我早就看好天然气,因为关注气候变化很久了,《巴黎气候大会》,
obama签字了,但是Trump上来就把这个废了。
如果不是Trump把这个废了,排碳税收起来的话,天然气价格
早翻倍了。
就是今天,我算过的,用天然气发电的燃料成本,就跟煤炭差不多了。
而天然气电厂,很容易根据用电量调整发电功率,比煤电,核电容易
多了,更要加分。美帝最近新建的电厂,一多半是天然气厂了。电价
也是涨的,啥玩意都涨,你就摁着天然气不涨? 怎么可能?
我觉得3 刀的天然气就跟30刀一桶的原油一样,绝对是被低估的。
所以,我觉得找个好点的天然气公司,可以搞一些。
a*****h
发帖数: 1
2
ng=vegas的赌场,心态放平
t*****o
发帖数: 1
3
好贴啊!天然气怎么会亏,应该赚爆了,除非你拿了一年多了。后面怎么看?
a****t
发帖数: 327
4
大牛觉得天然气价格能升到多少
a*****e
发帖数: 305
5
"暖冬很多年了,气候要逐渐进入小寒冰期"
lol
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
6
有好几个人写信问我对原油的未来形势的判断,我在这里一并回答。
短期不是很确定,有可能还要跌一些。
但是,长期的话,只要美国想跟中国搞,想压制中国发展,想压人民币
原油期货,只要想干其中的任何一条,美国都该想办法和沙特合伙拉抬
油价。 Trump这种脑子抽风似的,一边压油价,一边和中国打贸易战,
等于是一手抽中国的血,一手又给中国输血,他不可能打赢的。中国应该
趁机大量吃进低价的原油,把自己的原油储备灌满。
我觉得Trump除非无可救药,或者不想和中国硬杠,限制中国,只要他想
的话,他迟早会走回联合沙特拉抬油价的路子上来,怎么把原油打下去,
就能怎么把原油拉上来。
简单讲,我认为今天的原油价格不高,可以卖,可以分批买,再跌就再买,
跌到30刀,就直接all in,最多Trump再发两年疯。2年后,他走了,别人
上来搞中国,还是要拿原油当武器。
不要买ETF,就买大油股,没有decay, 还有分红,拿得住,基本没问题。
************************************************************
以上都是我的一家之言,赌输了不要怪我,赌赢了最好给我发红包,
也好鼓励一下我继续写长的东西。
等我有空弄个公众号玩玩,你们随便打赏,不给也没关系,就是专门过滤掉
那些很mean赚钱自己牛逼,数钱就要骂娘的二货。
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
7
天然气就是个大赌场,愿意赌就来,不愿意赌就撤,没什么好说的。
至于我说小寒冰期,那是我看了很多气候变化的东西的自己的认识。
现在的情况就是,寒冰不寒冰不好说,但是基本不会比以前更暖和。
今年冬天的天然气大赌场才刚开张,后面肯定还有惊心动魄的事情。
b*********n
发帖数: 13256
8
天然气暴涨估计是大嘴和包子要达成毛衣战协议了,包子许诺要买美帝的天然气,大嘴
趁机提价坑一把包子。
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
9
觉着有用就发个红包。
觉着没用跳过就好,千万不要赚了钱觉得自己牛逼,
亏了钱过来骂娘,不要那么mean好不好?
老邢这么多年网站越办越烂,就是缺少激励机制,劣币驱逐良币,
把很多牛ID都驱逐走了。
我要看看能不能改变一点点。

【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 天然气就是个大赌场,愿意赌就来,不愿意赌就撤,没什么好说的。
: 至于我说小寒冰期,那是我看了很多气候变化的东西的自己的认识。
: 现在的情况就是,寒冰不寒冰不好说,但是基本不会比以前更暖和。
: 今年冬天的天然气大赌场才刚开张,后面肯定还有惊心动魄的事情。

a*******m
发帖数: 14194
10
这个红包不是逼捐,你们谁愿意给就给,不愿意没有关系。
也不要笑话哥,哥水平也很有限,哥不喜欢写了东西被mean的
人追着骂,需要肯定,就这样吧。
相关主题
Renewable- and solar-energy stocks skirt sector's selloffLower oil prices coming???
opec boosting production to keep pressure on u.s. shale从这篇文中沙特的立场看,油价绝无可能短时间内返回40
完鸟,原油废了OPEC meeting agreement reached?
进入Stock版参与讨论
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
11
中国买的液化天然气的价格比这高多了,涨得这点只是毛毛雨。
中国天然气价格目前是4543.8元一度,换算成美元是650美元一顿,
一顿等于 51 mmbtu, 相当于是13 usd/ mmbtu.
其中液化的成本大概是2-3美元/mmbtu, 美国气价 不到5刀/mmbtu,
LNG成本价8刀。
卖到中国的利润空间还是大大的。
何况中国一旦气荒,去年涨到8000多一吨。
要是达成协议,天然气,更是要发。
总之,熬了这么多年,美国的页岩气产业怎么也得喝口汤了,
要不就得全死光了。

【在 b*********n 的大作中提到】
: 天然气暴涨估计是大嘴和包子要达成毛衣战协议了,包子许诺要买美帝的天然气,大嘴
: 趁机提价坑一把包子。

c**2
发帖数: 8496
12
UGAZ $250, that's back to the high price 22 months ago, anyone who bought
UGAZ in the past 21 months and hold should profit.
Now so many buy volume of DGAZ yesterday, 15x the average, I wonder ng MM
will let so many DGAZ buyers get the profit that easy? they should have
made ng 3x (or UGAZ 90% up) today to margin call all the ng shorters.
d***a
发帖数: 13752
13
老兄,你的第3点基本不成立了。天朝在搞煤电超低排放,煤电的排放标准要达到煤气
发电的标准,多数地方要在2018年完成,西部地区可以2020年完成。
http://www.cnenergy.org/dl/hd/201807/t20180712_659379.html
天然气发电的正常价格比煤电便宜。如果中美不打贸易战,美国的天然气还是可以销往
中国赚钱的,打贸易战就没没戏了。
“3. 世界能源转型 天然气消耗量大增,中国要搞清洁能源,天然气和LNG进口量大增。
去年冬天北京天气雾霾就少了很多,今年只会变严,不会松懈。
天然气电厂等等,天然气消耗量日增,但是产量进入瓶颈了。
目前的价格,很多页岩气产都不赚钱,没人会扩大生产,所以供不
应求必然导致价格上升。”

【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 赌对了方向,也上了船,但是现在还他妈的亏钱。
: 操!上船上早了!
: CHK这个公司的管理层实在太傻逼和短视了,根本没有对长期形势的估计,
: 就是看着油价高涨就往原油靠,前一段的收购太傻逼了。刚买了原油资产,
: 原油价格掉了30-40%。
: 这么衰的傻逼管理层也真是少见了。
: 我等一段出来,就不碰这个垃圾公司了。
: 前一阵有人找我来问天然气怎么样,这是我的回信。
: 自己拿时间表和天然气价格表对一下。
: 寄信人: awaydream (昆仑天下)

s**e
发帖数: 1498
14
天然气外需的分析要从俄国价格入手......

增。

【在 d***a 的大作中提到】
: 老兄,你的第3点基本不成立了。天朝在搞煤电超低排放,煤电的排放标准要达到煤气
: 发电的标准,多数地方要在2018年完成,西部地区可以2020年完成。
: http://www.cnenergy.org/dl/hd/201807/t20180712_659379.html
: 天然气发电的正常价格比煤电便宜。如果中美不打贸易战,美国的天然气还是可以销往
: 中国赚钱的,打贸易战就没没戏了。
: “3. 世界能源转型 天然气消耗量大增,中国要搞清洁能源,天然气和LNG进口量大增。
: 去年冬天北京天气雾霾就少了很多,今年只会变严,不会松懈。
: 天然气电厂等等,天然气消耗量日增,但是产量进入瓶颈了。
: 目前的价格,很多页岩气产都不赚钱,没人会扩大生产,所以供不
: 应求必然导致价格上升。”

x*******1
发帖数: 28835
15
chk已经把09年的产量已经hedge了@$2.8 。 天然气涨价只能说明管理层堵错了。 最
近溢价收购WRD,实在是sb。 溢价20块收购。看了chk的负债表,你就不敢买了。
a*******m
发帖数: 14194
16
他的管理层实在是太傻逼了,连我这样的民科都比不上。
Fed还在加息,丫的不老实一点,又没钱,收购个屁呀,
就是脑子有屎。
对未来的判断也是非常傻逼,真是服了。

【在 x*******1 的大作中提到】
: chk已经把09年的产量已经hedge了@$2.8 。 天然气涨价只能说明管理层堵错了。 最
: 近溢价收购WRD,实在是sb。 溢价20块收购。看了chk的负债表,你就不敢买了。

p*******e
发帖数: 125
17
这样的认真分析贴要顶。不管是否同意观点。现在这个版这样的认真贴越来越少了

【在 a*******m 的大作中提到】
: 赌对了方向,也上了船,但是现在还他妈的亏钱。
: 操!上船上早了!
: CHK这个公司的管理层实在太傻逼和短视了,根本没有对长期形势的估计,
: 就是看着油价高涨就往原油靠,前一段的收购太傻逼了。刚买了原油资产,
: 原油价格掉了30-40%。
: 这么衰的傻逼管理层也真是少见了。
: 我等一段出来,就不碰这个垃圾公司了。
: 前一阵有人找我来问天然气怎么样,这是我的回信。
: 自己拿时间表和天然气价格表对一下。
: 寄信人: awaydream (昆仑天下)

a*******m
发帖数: 14194
18
Trump真是够二的,晃点完中国,晃点沙特。
前面大张旗鼓要制裁伊朗,又声称要维持油价不能暴涨,
让沙特带领OPEC增产,以填补空间;
结果,沙特答应帮忙了,Trump有waive 伊朗的制裁,
油价直接跌了20刀。
这也太坑爹了,把沙特当傻逼了。
这回OPEC要减产了,油价要反弹了。
'Duped,' 'tricked' and 'snookered': Oil analysts say Trump fooled Saudis
into tanking crude prices
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/trump-duped-saudis-into-tanking-oil-prices-
analysts-say.html?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cstory%7C&par=yahoo&
yptr=yahoo
Oil markets analysts say it appears that the Trump administration tricked
Saudi Arabia and other oil producers into slashing oil prices.
President Donald Trump pressured the Saudis to orchestrate a production
increase ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
The Trump administration threatened to cut Iran's exports to zero, but
ultimately allowed some of its biggest buyers to continue importing crude.
Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia pulled off a challenging U-turn in global
oil market policy, convincing a fractious group of two dozen nations to hike
output and undercut the oil market rally that was filling their coffers.
The Saudis undertook this unpopular task at least in part to help its allies
in the White House — and for its troubles, the kingdom was rewarded with a
series of blistering tweets from President Donald Trump and the biggest
pullback in oil prices since the historic downturn of 2014.
Oil market analysts say it now appears that Trump hoodwinked Saudi Arabia,
fooling the U.S. ally into pushing the oil market into oversupply and
sparking a roughly 25 percent drop in crude prices. That accomplished Trump'
s goal of driving down energy costs for Americans, but left nations
dependent on oil income like Saudi Arabia with the prospect of shrinking
revenues.
Who is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's controversy Who
is MBS? The Prince at the center of Saudi Arabia's controversy
11:10 AM ET Fri, 19 Oct 2018 | 03:57
The analysts say Trump essentially bamboozled the Saudis by threatening for
months to implement sanctions against Iran so strictly, the Islamic Republic
's exports would go into free fall. But when the administration's deadline
for oil buyers to quit Iranian oil arrived on Nov. 4, Trump instead dolled
out six-month exemptions to some of the country's biggest customers.
"They got sort of tricked here," said John Kilduff, founding partner of
energy hedge fund Again Capital. "The Russians and the Saudis in particular
ramped up production, ramped up exports ahead of what was supposed to be
severe sanctions on Iran, and when the administration gave the eight waivers
to Iran's largest buyers, it undercut that whole equation."
"So now we've tripped into an oversupply situation almost overnight because
of the severe reaction by Russia and the Saudis to cover for Iran losses,
which never materialized."
To be sure, the sanctions have shrunk Iran's exports by about 1 million
barrels per day. Few thought the Trump administration would actually achieve
its stated goal of cutting its rival's shipments to zero.
But the sanctions, backed by the administration's hawkish rhetoric, cut Iran
's exports more quickly than many anticipated. The market also expected
another big drop after the Nov. 4 deadline passed. That fear fueled a rally
that sent oil prices to four-year highs.
Kilduff: Skeptical about OPEC proposal to cut output Kilduff: Skeptical
about OPEC proposal to cut output
6:59 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:26
Over the last six weeks, that rally has unwound in spectacular fashion, with
oil prices tumbling into a bear market. The pullback has several causes,
including a weaker demand outlook for crude and a wider market sell-off, but
analysts say OPEC's output hike earlier this year and the sanctions waivers
play a major part in the oil price plunge.
"In early October there was this expectation that a lot of Iran's barrels
were going to come off the market, and so essentially Saudi Arabia was duped
into increasing production," said Matt Smith, head of commodities research
at tanker-tracking firm ClipperData.
Smith says it's uncertain the situation has unfolded exactly as the Trump
administration intended, but it has ultimately worked out in the president's
favor — though potentially at a cost to U.S.-Saudi relations.
"They've really done a good job of decreasing that oil price, but it has
been at the expense of some of those relations there, because surely the
Saudis have got to be pretty unhappy with the way things have played out
here."
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih acknowledged this week that Iran's
exports didn't fall as much as expected.
He also announced that Saudi Arabia will ship 500,000 fewer bpd in December
and said OPEC and its allies may cut production by 1 million bpd next year.
That decision could come in a few weeks when OPEC, Russia and other
producers meet to review their current policy of easing output curbs that
have been in place since last year.
Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier in OPEC and the world, says
expert Saudi Arabia will be the swing oil supplier in OPEC and the world,
says expert
7:11 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 03:15
Trump took to Twitter a few hours later, tweeting, "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia
and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower
based on supply!"
The president has previously used Twitter to blame OPEC for high oil prices
and demand the group take action to cut costs. At the U.N. General Assembly
this year, he told world leaders that OPEC is ripping them off.
Analysts say Falih's comments this week might have pushed oil prices higher,
if not for Trump's tweet.
"I think the market is ignoring [the Saudis] because of Trump," said Helima
Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "I think if
you didn't have the Trump tweet, there would not be this skepticism. Right
now, there's a view that the Saudis will reverse course because of Trump.
There's a sense that Trump really has them over a barrel at this point."
The kingdom is in a precarious position after a Saudi prosecutor
acknowledged that government agents killed journalist and U.S. resident
Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul last month, following
earlier denials by the state.
Saudi need to signal they will take action on oil: Analyst A 'signal' of
action is needed from Saudi Arabia: Strategist
1:41 AM ET Wed, 14 Nov 2018 | 04:30
Gary Ross, CEO at Black Gold Investors, believes the cartel will ultimately
agree to cut output when it meets with Russia and other producers next month
. However, in his view it may be too little too late.
"They're pretty much snookered by Trump," Ross said. "I mean, Trump led them
to believe that the Iranian exports would be zero. It turned out they're
going to be 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day, way higher than people thought
."
"Broadly speaking, it's an oversupply story, and I think they will cut back,
but they're not likely to cut back enough to drive prices back up to
anything like $80 Brent," he told CNBC. "I think we're going to be in a $60
to $70 Brent market for some time."
The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.
Tom DiChristopher CNBC
Tom DiChristopher
s***n
发帖数: 678
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你要是认为美国出口天然气去中国是大趋势。为啥不买LNG,近期美国液化天然气的唯
一唯二出口。
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