w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: wayofflying (小破熊), 信区: Military
标 题: 世界经济将再次大衰退，大宗商品可能暴跌40%左右
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 6 17:49:45 2011, 美东)
世界经济将再次崩溃，大宗商品市场可能暴跌40%左右
作者：未世民 文章发于：http://blog.sina.com.cn/weishiming12 点击数：3929 更新时间：2011-6-4 荐 【字体：小 大】
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未世民评论：由欧洲债务危机引发的债券市场动荡未来将进入债务重组阶段，欧洲银行
业的灾难可能使全球面临灾难性的收缩，毕竟欧元也是全球性货币之一，同时欧洲金融
势力也是全球流动性的主要提供者之一，就在前几天兴业银行的两位全球投资策略师看
淡新兴国家的经济趋势，并认为新兴国家是全球最大的神话与泡沫，面临着全面崩盘的
危险，国际对冲基金正疯狂押注一系列国家的货币暴跌，这些问题均将沉重打击全球经
济，恶化相当多的国家的信贷环境与金融，货币体系，下面是标准普尔公司及一些美国
投资分析家的看法，他们认为大宗商品市场未来可能面临着40%---75%左右的超级大调
整，相当多的国家的债务链循环崩坏将使经济与货币崩溃，而这正像下面这篇文章中那
位对冲基金的经理所说，对于另一些人来说这是一次巨大的赚取超额利润的机会。
Chinese Economic Slowdown May Lead to 75% Plunge in Commodities, S&P Says
Thu Jun 02 15:34:05 GMT 2011
A “sudden” slowdown in China may lead commodity prices to fall as much as
75 percent from current levels, Standard & Poor’s said.
Unexpected shifts in government policies or problems in the banking sector
may trigger such a slowdown, S&P said in a report e-mailed today. The floor
for aluminum is 65 cents to 70 cents a pound ($1,433 to $1,543 a metric ton)
, compared with about $1.20 a pound now and copper’s floor is $1.50 to $1.
75 a pound, compared with $4.10 a pound currently, S&P said.
“Given the extent to which China has bolstered commodity prices, that’s
something that we have to be concerned about,” S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen
said by telephone from New York. “The efforts by the government in China to
slow growth are having an effect on commodity prices. It’s been a pretty
modest correction so far.”
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 commodities dropped 6.8 percent last
month, the first decline since August, as accelerating inflation in China
fanned speculation growth will slow. China’s central bank has raised
benchmark interest rates four times and boosted lenders’ reserve-
requirement ratios by three percentage points since September.
The central bank may raise rates ahead of a public holiday on June 6 because
consumer prices are expected to rise to a new high in May, the Shanghai
Daily said May 31, citing UBS AG. Inflation rose 5.3 percent last month,
exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4 percent.
Moderating Growth
China’s gross domestic product may grow 9.5 percent this year, down from 10
.3 percent in 2010, according to a median of 11 analyst estimates compiled
by Bloomberg. Under S&P’s base- case scenario, China’s economic growth
will moderate, while private consumption will remain strong, according to
the report.
“The current situation isn’t a bubble and it’s not going to burst, but
there is a risk,” Sprinzen said.
In case of a sudden slowdown in the world’s biggest consumer of commodities
, iron ore’s floor is $85 to $95 a metric ton compared with about $170 now,
seaborne coking coal at the mine has a floor of $100 to $120 a ton,
compared with about $180 now, and hot rolled coil steel’s floor is $475 to
$525 a ton compared with about $750 now, according to the report.
“In considering the downside for metals, we generally assume that the
global industry production cost curve would set a pricing floor,” Sprinzen
wrote. “Specifically, we assume that prices are unlikely to fall for an
extended period below the level at which 10%-20% of world capacity cannot
generate positive operating cash flow before investment.”
Commodities may “easily” drop 25 to 40 percent in the next 12 months,
presenting an “enormous opportunity” for investors, David Stroud, chief
executive officer of TS Capital, a hedge fund manager in New York, said in
an e-mail today.
Markets are “starting to look a lot like 2008,” he said. That year, the
GSCI dropped 43 percent. | w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 2 媒体相当配合嘛，一个月前$spx 1360时候媒体怎么又到处都是歌舞声平?
怎么没有人提出来"经济将再次大衰退"? 不会连这点"先见之明"都没有吧? | c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 3 一哭。。。
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: 媒体相当配合嘛，一个月前$spx 1360时候媒体怎么又到处都是歌舞声平?
: 怎么没有人提出来"经济将再次大衰退"? 不会连这点"先见之明"都没有吧?
| c******g
发帖数: 1611 | 4 华尔街眼含热泪望着笨哥‘日子没法过了。。。’
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: 媒体相当配合嘛，一个月前$spx 1360时候媒体怎么又到处都是歌舞声平?
: 怎么没有人提出来"经济将再次大衰退"? 不会连这点"先见之明"都没有吧?
| s****l
发帖数: 10462 | | w*****u
发帖数: 4768 | 6 pump的时候让你觉得可以无限上涨
dump的时候让你觉得底是深不可测
这不就是花街赖以生存的伎俩嘛 | w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 7 mnn,其实就是割韭菜，涨完了再割.
【在 w*****u 的大作中提到】
: pump的时候让你觉得可以无限上涨
: dump的时候让你觉得底是深不可测
: 这不就是花街赖以生存的伎俩嘛
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