h*******u
发帖数: 37 | 1 达摩托梦：
Chanos Says China on ‘Bigger, Faster Treadmill,’ Property Slows
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- China is on “a bigger and faster treadmill” than
ever as a slowdown in the property market has already started, said Jim
Chanos, president and founder of $6 billion hedge fund Kynikos Associates
Ltd.
“The Chinese are beginning to realize that property prices can go down as
well as up and this is going to be a very, very troubling development for
the Chinese property market,” said Chanos in an interview from Singapore
with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television today.
China’s home prices gained in fewer than half of the 70 cities monitored by
the government in September for a second month as sales eased after
government curbs this year to keep housing affordable and prevent an asset
bubble.
Chanos, who was one of the first investors to foresee the 2001 collapse of
Enron Corp., has said in the past that China is on a “treadmill to hell”
because of a reliance on property development for economic growth.
Real estate transactions in September, October, in the tier-one, two and
three cities the firm tracks are down 40 percent to 60 percent year on year,
said Chanos, who had predicted the market may crash as early as 2010.
“The property slowdown or worse has started,” he said. “The question is
how is it resolved.”
Chanos said he’s still shorting Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. despite its
third-quarter profit rising 40 percent from last year.
Chanos is on a trip to Asia, including Hong Kong and Singapore. He said
trips to visit Shanghai and Beijing are “probably some ways away” because
he has analysts going to China all the time. | g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 2 假的!
【在 h*******u 的大作中提到】
: 达摩托梦：
: Chanos Says China on ‘Bigger, Faster Treadmill,’ Property Slows
: Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- China is on “a bigger and faster treadmill” than
: ever as a slowdown in the property market has already started, said Jim
: Chanos, president and founder of $6 billion hedge fund Kynikos Associates
: Ltd.
: “The Chinese are beginning to realize that property prices can go down as
: well as up and this is going to be a very, very troubling development for
: the Chinese property market,” said Chanos in an interview from Singapore
: with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television today.
| h*******u
发帖数: 37 | 3 Copper Traders See Rally Ending as China Use Slows: Commodities
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Copper traders and analysts are forecasting an end to
the biggest weekly rally since at least 1986 on concern demand will slow in
China while Europe’s lingering financial crisis limits growth.
Eleven of 23 people surveyed by Bloomberg say copper will drop next week,
eight predicted a gain, and four said prices will be little changed. The
last time respondents were mostly bearish, on Sept. 23, the metal slumped 4.
6 percent in the following week. Traders also predicted lower sugar prices
next week, and gains in gold, corn and soybeans.
Copper Traders See Rally Ending as China Use Slow
While copper surged 14 percent this week as European leaders agreed to
expand the region’s bailout fund, the metal is down 20 percent from a
record on Feb. 15, the common definition of a bear market. Global output
exceeded demand in the eight months through August, the World Bureau of
Metal Statistics said on Oct. 19. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG cut
their copper forecasts for 2012 this month, and economists surveyed by
Bloomberg predict slower growth next year in Europe and China, the world’s
largest metal user.
“We’re probably heading into a recession in the euro- region, and there
are hard landing risks in China,” Michael Lewis, the head of commodities
research at Deutsche Bank AG in London, said yesterday by telephone.
Purchasing by Chinese manufacturers “won’t be as powerful now because
prices have come back up,” Lewis said.
Copper Prices
Copper closed at $8,145 a metric ton yesterday on the London Metal Exchange,
heading for the biggest weekly advance since at least 1986. Prices reached
a five-week high of $8,205 after European leaders bolstered their rescue
fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 billion) and persuaded bondholders to take 50
percent losses on Greek debt.
“We’ve come a little bit too far, too fast, and I would be very careful
about chasing the market up here,” Bill O’Neill, a partner at Logic
Advisors, said yesterday by telephone from Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
“There aren’t enough specific details at this juncture to really say this
is going to work,” he said of the European plan.
Even after rallying from a 14-month low of $6,635 on Oct. 3, prices are down
15 percent this year, heading for the first annual slide since 2008, when
the worst global recession since World War II cut demand for raw materials.
Copper, used in pipes, cables and wiring, dropped 29 percent from July to
the end of September.
Metals Slump
The LME’s index of six industrial metals fell 15 percent this year,
compared with a 4 percent gain for the Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24
commodities that’s been led by gasoil and gold. The MSCI All-Country World
Index of equities slid 3.9 percent, and Treasuries returned 7.8 percent, a
Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Copper output this year through August exceeded demand by 312,500 tons, up
from 128,000 tons for 2010, according to the World Bureau of Metal
Statistics, based in Ware, England.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2012 copper forecast by 18 percent to $8,750 a ton
from $10,692, according to an Oct. 21 report from the New York-based bank.
UBS, based in Zurich, on Oct. 14 reduced its 2012 estimate of copper futures
on the Comex in New York by 5.4 percent to $3.50 a pound ($7,716 a ton)
from $3.70.
Demand in China declined 5 percent in the first seven months of this year,
the International Copper Study Group said in an Oct. 21 report. Imports of
refined metal climbed in September to the highest since May 2010 as lower
prices in London prompted traders to place orders. Inbound shipments climbed
17 percent to 275,499 tons last month from 235,509 tons in August, the
General Administration of Customs said Oct. 24.
China Slowing
Growth in China will slow to 9.2 percent this year and 8.6 percent in 2012,
from 10.4 percent last year, according to the median of 10 estimates
compiled by Bloomberg. The country will account for 37 percent of copper
demand this year, according to London-based Barclays Capital.
Expansion in the euro region will slow to 1.6 percent this year and 0.8
percent in 2012, from 1.8 percent in 2010, according to the median of 26
estimates. U.S. growth will fall to 1.7 percent this year from 3 percent, a
Bloomberg survey of 81 economists showed.
Money managers have been negative on copper since September, when the metal
plunged 24 percent. Speculators pared their net-short position in Comex
futures by 13 percent to 8,294 contracts in the week ended Oct. 18, from a
week-earlier total that was the most bearish in two years, Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data show. The CFTC will report holdings as of Oct. 25
after the close of trading today.
Industrial Demand
China’s slowdown may not curb its appetite for copper. Orders to withdraw
the metal from LME inventories in Asia more than doubled this month, a
possible sign of increased demand, said Peter Richardson, the chief metals
economist at Morgan Stanley Australia Ltd. in Melbourne. Global stockpiles
in warehouses monitored by the LME were at the lowest since March yesterday.
Demand from industry may increase as central banks around the world take
steps to shore up their economies. The GSCI commodity index rallied 3
percent yesterday, the biggest gain in a month, after European leaders
agreed to expand their bailout fund to stem the region’s debt crisis.
Disruption at Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.’s Grasberg mine in
Indonesia may support prices. The largest publicly traded copper producer
declared force majeure on some sales agreements this week because of a labor
stoppage at the mine. About 8,000 workers at Grasberg, which has the world
’s largest recoverable reserves of copper, have been on strike for higher
wages since Sept. 15.
Gold Rally
Concern that Europe’s debt woes will linger and U.S. monetary policy may
spur inflation pushed gold above $1,700 an ounce on Oct. 25 for the first
time in a month, and holdings in exchange-traded products increased to a
four-week high. Few investors will be willing to sell gold while Europe
remains in a financial crisis, said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB
Capital in London.
Sixteen of 19 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to
advance next week. Futures gained 23 percent to $1,747.70 in New York this
year, heading for an 11th consecutive annual advance. The metal is trading 9
.1 percent below a record $1,923.70 reached on Sept. 6.
Grains, Sugar
Twelve of 28 people surveyed anticipate gains in corn, and 13 of 29 expect
the same for soybeans, the least bullish since September. Corn rose 3.6
percent to $6.515 a bushel in Chicago this year. Soybeans slipped 11 percent
to $12.44 a bushel.
Raw-sugar futures have declined 5.3 percent since touching a one-month high
on Oct. 17 to 26.86 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, extending
this year’s loss to 16 percent. Seven of 12 surveyed expect prices to drop
next week.
“Growth is still very much in question,” said Ole Hansen, the vice
president of trading advisory at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Copper has
got some strong momentum at the moment, but such a strong rally as we’ve
seen in a short space of time calls for a retracement. Gold is still a safe
haven amid worries about Europe.” | M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 4 亡中国者，墙街族裔和与其狼狈为奸的买办也。
CEO, 20111027, 201.1000, -13.1901, -6.6
PTR, 20111027, 135.7900, -5.9590, -4.4
还有许多看跌的中概股，证明墙街意图做空后爆破。 |
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