S*******s
发帖数: 13043 | 1 you are given two envelopes to choose and told that in one of it there is a
check of n dollars and in the other there is a check of 2n dollars. but you
don't know what n is. And you choose one envelope and open it and find $100k
. what is the probability that there is $200k in the other envelope? |
x**y
发帖数: 10012 | 2 2/3?
瞎猜的
a
you
100k
【在 S*******s 的大作中提到】
: you are given two envelopes to choose and told that in one of it there is a
: check of n dollars and in the other there is a check of 2n dollars. but you
: don't know what n is. And you choose one envelope and open it and find $100k
: . what is the probability that there is $200k in the other envelope?
|
u****h
发帖数: 2193 | |
d*j
发帖数: 13780 | 4 老题目了， 看看 heard on the street
如果没记错的话。。。。
a
you
100k
【在 S*******s 的大作中提到】
: you are given two envelopes to choose and told that in one of it there is a
: check of n dollars and in the other there is a check of 2n dollars. but you
: don't know what n is. And you choose one envelope and open it and find $100k
: . what is the probability that there is $200k in the other envelope?
|
x**y
发帖数: 10012 | 5 是因为N 可能是奇数可能是偶数吧？
【在 d*j 的大作中提到】
: 老题目了， 看看 heard on the street
: 如果没记错的话。。。。
:
: a
: you
: 100k
|
r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 6 the other envelop has either 50k or 200k with equal probability
so it should be 50%. The original problem is called "exchange paradox"
and should you switch the envelope. The answer is there is no difference
a
you
100k
【在 S*******s 的大作中提到】
: you are given two envelopes to choose and told that in one of it there is a
: check of n dollars and in the other there is a check of 2n dollars. but you
: don't know what n is. And you choose one envelope and open it and find $100k
: . what is the probability that there is $200k in the other envelope?
|
w****5
发帖数: 17 | 7 1/2
one is 100k, another one could be either 200k or 50k |
p****u
发帖数: 2596 | 8 haha，标题党
a
you
100k
【在 S*******s 的大作中提到】
: you are given two envelopes to choose and told that in one of it there is a
: check of n dollars and in the other there is a check of 2n dollars. but you
: don't know what n is. And you choose one envelope and open it and find $100k
: . what is the probability that there is $200k in the other envelope?
|
t********a
发帖数: 810 | 9 it has to do your prior belief of what the distribution is.
If you say the prob is 1/2, then your prior distribution is uniform over the
real numbers, which is not possible. |
S*******s
发帖数: 13043 | 10 you might have good memory but if you try to justify the quoted claim that there is no difference to switch the two envelopes from your own claim that the probability of 50/200 is 50% and you will immediately see why the original problem called "paradox".
【在 r*******y 的大作中提到】
: the other envelop has either 50k or 200k with equal probability
: so it should be 50%. The original problem is called "exchange paradox"
: and should you switch the envelope. The answer is there is no difference
:
: a
: you
: 100k
|
