h******t
发帖数: 872 | 1 http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/get-ready-asia-chinas
Get Ready, Asia: China's Military Is Rapidly Catching Up to America
Malcolm Davis
October 22, 2015
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In considering Paul Dibb’s analysis on the Chinese People’s Liberation
Army (PLA), I’d recommend anyone interested in the state of China’s
military start by reading Roger Cliff’s China’s Military Power: Assessing
Current and Future Capabilities. Cliff argues that “…by 2020, the quality
of China’s military doctrine, equipment, personnel and training will likely
be approaching, to varying degrees, those of the US and other Western
militaries.”
Although prevailing weaknesses in organizational structure, logistics and
organizational culture will limit the effectiveness of PLA weapons and
platforms, “defeating China in these scenarios [Taiwan and South China Sea]
could nonetheless be difficult and costly for the United States’ primarily
as a result of the geographic advantages that China enjoys, as well as
specific systems capabilities.”
Finally, he suggests, “the 2020s are likely to be a time of power
transition in East Asia, from a region in which the United States has had
the capability to defend its allies against virtually any form of aggression
, to one where China has the capability to, at a minimum, contest control of
the seas and airspace and where an attempt to oppose a Chinese use of force
will be dangerous and costly for any country, including the United States.”
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Cliff’s conclusion is also echoed in a recent RAND report, “The US China
Military Scorecard,” which argues that China is catching up to the U.S., is
becoming more assertive and confident, and has geography on its side. The
report notes that “China [has been able] to narrow the military gap in
almost every area and move ahead in some” and that the “overall capability
trend lines are moving against the United States.” The report also
highlights the speed of change in China’s military: it’s pushing forward
in key capability areas and its modernization is occurring more rapidly than
that of the U.S. China is leapfrogging, whilst the U.S. is plodding.
These two accounts suggest worrying trends and highlight that an analysis of
the PLA which is based on superficial glimpses of selected areas of
capability misses the bigger picture. The speed of China’s military
modernization, its sustained investment in terms of double-digit spending
levels, and the types of capabilities it is acquiring highlight China’s
strategic objective of eroding America’s military–technological advantage
so that Beijing may resolve territorial disputes and ensure the success of
the China Dream.
Even though China does face real domestic challenges, so does the U.S. in
the form of growing national debt and destructive political partisanship in
Washington that together reduces its ability to sustain defence spending in
coming years to offset Chinese capability growth. That’s occurring as
security risks in Europe and the Middle East multiply to impose greater
burdens on shrinking forces. The end result is reduced U.S. readiness and
overall effectiveness at a critical time later this decade.
Paul’s dismissal of PLA capabilities seems to lack operational context and
overlook PLA capabilities now in service. A key emerging issue is the
survivability of naval surface forces in the face of PLA anti-access-area-
denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Here PLA ability to wage information warfare
against vital U.S. C4ISR networks through counter-space operations with
ASATs, integrated network-electronic warfare (INEW), and cyber warfare need
to be considered more deeply as winning the information battle against China
is vital to countering their A2/AD capabilities. The RAND report notes that
Chinese offensive counterspace capability, for example, is growing faster
than the U.S. defensive counter-space options. There may be technological
silver bullets to mitigate such developments but they must first be funded
through to operational status, and then proven to work in battle.
While Paul is certainly correct to suggest that the U.S. isn’t ‘sitting on
its hands’ as its ‘Third Offset’ strategy clearly demonstrates, this
argument can also be reversed. China has flown hypersonic glide vehicles, is
deploying counter-stealth radars, and has the world’s largest unmanned air
vehicle capability.
China is catching up in anti-submarine warfare, with the deployment of fixed
acoustic arrays and Jingdao class ASW corvettes, as well as new maritime
patrol aircraft. In air defence, China will likely acquire the S-400 SAM
which is effective against stealth aircraft, and long-range air combat
capabilities epitomised by the J-20 can exploit the U.S. reliance on forward
-deployed AEW&C and airborne refuelling aircraft to further reduce US
ability to project airpower.
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In terms of submarine quieting, nuclear submarines are always going to be
noisier than conventional boats. China deploys both the Yuan and Kilo 636
conventional submarines which are very quiet and difficult to detect in
acoustically challenging waters in the South China Sea. The RAND report
notes that “China’s newer submarines are becoming quieter and better armed
, and there is every reason to believe that their capability to find and
attack U.S. surface ships has vastly improved [since 1996].” It is the
ability of these boats to fire long-range supersonic anti-ship cruise
missiles (ASCMs), such as the new 290nm range YJ-18, that according to
Andrew Erickson allow China to “out-stick” the U.S. in long-range anti-
surface warfare. This submarine-ASCM combination is quite deadly.
Paul Dibb is correct to caution against seeing the PLA as ten feet tall, but
it would be equally unwise to dismiss China as inconsequential in military-
technological terms. China is rapidly catching up, and what matters is where
the PLA goes from here, and how Beijing uses its growing military power
across Asia. | f******t
发帖数: 19544 | 2 差球不多。台湾和朝鲜现在就没问题，不用五年之后。日本和五年之后也不行。 | s****n
发帖数: 237 | 3 造谣么，狗蛋章也不赶紧放放话
土工马上就崩溃了
军队明天就解散 | e****n
发帖数: 2022 | 4 造谣，昨天就解散了！
【在 s****n 的大作中提到】
: 造谣么，狗蛋章也不赶紧放放话
: 土工马上就崩溃了
: 军队明天就解散
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