D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 1 Here is an easy-to-understand analysis
http://servowealth.com/resources/articles/john-bogle-misses-boa
Key to successful long term investing, imo, are three factors in the
following order:
1. asset allocation
2. rebalance
3. picking the right fund/etf/... Since most people including myself will do
this wrong, I consider this of zero importance. | m**i
发帖数: 394 | 2 If you could not do 3 well, how can you do 1 and 2. I thought 3 is basic.
do
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: Here is an easy-to-understand analysis
: http://servowealth.com/resources/articles/john-bogle-misses-boa
: Key to successful long term investing, imo, are three factors in the
: following order:
: 1. asset allocation
: 2. rebalance
: 3. picking the right fund/etf/... Since most people including myself will do
: this wrong, I consider this of zero importance.
| S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 3 Rebalance provides no meaningful benefit according Vanguard Research and
Jack Bogle.
do
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: Here is an easy-to-understand analysis
: http://servowealth.com/resources/articles/john-bogle-misses-boa
: Key to successful long term investing, imo, are three factors in the
: following order:
: 1. asset allocation
: 2. rebalance
: 3. picking the right fund/etf/... Since most people including myself will do
: this wrong, I consider this of zero importance.
| D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 4 Let me rephrase. A lot of us think that asset allocation determines most, if
not all, of the return/performance in the long run. Rebalancing may or may
not add half a point, but mostly it is a way to reduce risk. if you agree
with this, then indexing is the logical way to execute your plan. You simply
choose the most cost-effective fund or etf to index. You can of course to
pick actively managed funds. But most people will end up having a bad fund
with short term hot performance or a closet-index fund that costs a lot. I
may have exaggerated to say that picking the right fund is of zero-
importance. But that's how i feel.
【在 m**i 的大作中提到】
: If you could not do 3 well, how can you do 1 and 2. I thought 3 is basic.
:
: do
| u****r
发帖数: 2053 | 5 how much does re-balancing ususlay cost?
thanks.
do
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: Here is an easy-to-understand analysis
: http://servowealth.com/resources/articles/john-bogle-misses-boa
: Key to successful long term investing, imo, are three factors in the
: following order:
: 1. asset allocation
: 2. rebalance
: 3. picking the right fund/etf/... Since most people including myself will do
: this wrong, I consider this of zero importance.
| D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 6 it doesn't cost anything within my plan at vanguard.
【在 u****r 的大作中提到】
: how much does re-balancing ususlay cost?
: thanks.
:
: do
| m**i
发帖数: 394 | 7 Assume one is doing well in 1.
What do you do for each asset?
For cash, there are a few choices, RMB, $, uro, yen, etc, or cash funds.
For bond, there are funds for it.
For stocks, there are funds for it.
There are also asset allocation funds.
I mean 3 is orthogonal to others.
But you are right, asset allocation, is very personal.
For the impact of rebalance, it depends on the sum asset one has.
For 2M, 0.5% per year, it is 10K per year and 100K for 10 years.
For 20M, 0.5% per year, it is 100K per year, and 1 million for 10 years.
It is really the compound of the rate of return and the sum of the asset
makes the sense.
do
【在 D*****t 的大作中提到】
: Here is an easy-to-understand analysis
: http://servowealth.com/resources/articles/john-bogle-misses-boa
: Key to successful long term investing, imo, are three factors in the
: following order:
: 1. asset allocation
: 2. rebalance
: 3. picking the right fund/etf/... Since most people including myself will do
: this wrong, I consider this of zero importance.
| D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 8 I will rephrase again. If you started investing around 1999-2000, it was
very likely that you would pick JANSX for large cap exposure. Its holdings
in tech stocks made the manager a super star. likewise, around that time
and after the tech bubble, one would probably pick LMVTX for a very good
reason. That is, its manager Bill Miller had beaten SP500 for 15 consecutive
years. If you are really old, you would probably choose FMAGX because of
peter lynch. If you are really brave, i mean really really brave, you
probably had chosen CGMFX.
What happens to these funds now? Go to morningstar and find out.
Within an asset allocation plan, index is a no brainer and an easy choice.
That's why I say picking fund is not importnat at all. Of course I can put
it another way: it is critically important not to choose JANSX, LMVTX, FMAGX
or CGMFX. |
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