N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 1 手里的几个重仓Bond fund (i.e. PTTDX，属于US Intermediate-Term Bond类别的)最
近跌的很厉害，是不是应该换别的了？如果还想买Bond Fund，应该换什么类别呢？
只听说Long-term Bond类不能碰，short/intermediate term的怎么也跌的这么厉害呢？
如果现在bond fund都不能碰，股票又这么高，显然也不能碰，那该买什么呢？
求解惑。谢谢。 |
s***n
发帖数: 678 | 2 最近预期QE会在今年开始减缓力度，中长期利率开始上升，这个趋势导致债券价格下调
。现在问题是QE减缓也不是迫在眉睫，利率的上升是否反应过度了。不过迟早利率都是
要升回正常水平的，债券牛市结束不可避免，同时股市虽然有风险，不过个人觉得也不
是不能碰。 |
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 3 Ask yourself two fundamental questions before taking tactical actions -
1. Are your assets appropriately diversified between stocks and bonds funds?
2. Do you periodically re-balance the portfolio?
If you do both above, you will be less worried about short term market
fluctuations. |
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 4
funds?
一定程度上Diversified，但偏重bond fund(~60-70%)
现在的问题就是目前是否需要re-balance，降低bond，增加股票？或者降低bond，增加
别的什么？
【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
: Ask yourself two fundamental questions before taking tactical actions -
: 1. Are your assets appropriately diversified between stocks and bonds funds?
: 2. Do you periodically re-balance the portfolio?
: If you do both above, you will be less worried about short term market
: fluctuations.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 5 Cash is king in a bear market, you can put it in an online saving or MMA for
a while.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
:
: funds?
: 一定程度上Diversified，但偏重bond fund(~60-70%)
: 现在的问题就是目前是否需要re-balance，降低bond，增加股票？或者降低bond，增加
: 别的什么？
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 6 Is it really a bear market now? |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 7 Yes for bond market, for stock all other countries yes, US stock may be the
tail of the bull market but most profit is gone.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: Is it really a bear market now?
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 8 So you mean rebalance to 100% cash, or at least cash in all bond funds now？
That sounds too conservative. Anything better than Cash at this point? I'm
willing to take higher risk since I'm only in my 30's.
the
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Yes for bond market, for stock all other countries yes, US stock may be the
: tail of the bull market but most profit is gone.
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 9 那如何决定该怎么Rebalance了？1年内Bond，equity都不能碰了？Sigh。
for
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Cash is king in a bear market, you can put it in an online saving or MMA for
: a while.
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 10 一直觉得Pimco的什么PTTRX，PTTDX，PONDX都满不错的。今年，最近以来表现奇差。
PTTRX按说快30年了，只有一年是YOY的Return为负，今年也handle不了了？还有那个
AGNC，晕，买了以后跌跌不休，还好试水买了点，但是看它每天这样子，真烦。 |
|
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 11 前两天听广播说long-term bond不能碰，short/intermediate的没事。我看了下PTTDX
，是以short term为主，long term的大概占20%多，感觉不算很高啊，难道它最近刚调
整过了？
【在 s**********6 的大作中提到】
: 一直觉得Pimco的什么PTTRX，PTTDX，PONDX都满不错的。今年，最近以来表现奇差。
: PTTRX按说快30年了，只有一年是YOY的Return为负，今年也handle不了了？还有那个
: AGNC，晕，买了以后跌跌不休，还好试水买了点，但是看它每天这样子，真烦。
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 12 可是，现在利率波动的快，短期的话，coupon也吃不到多少，价格也变动挺快的，为啥
就一定好呢？所谓的好，是否也只是相对长期的呢。
那么PONDX呢？我看有人说在目前市场环境下更好点。从目前价位反应看也是，跌的没
有那俩狠，它是seek to maximize current income， long-term capital
appreciation is a secondary objective. 不过这个我们401K不能买，想买估计得开
个Fidelity账户。
PTTDX
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 前两天听广播说long-term bond不能碰，short/intermediate的没事。我看了下PTTDX
: ，是以short term为主，long term的大概占20%多，感觉不算很高啊，难道它最近刚调
: 整过了？
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 13 另外，我还想请问大牛们一个问题，那个PTTRX此前是每个月分红一次的，最近5月底这
个怎么没分？ |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 14 You can start to accumulate cash for short term individual corporate or
taxable muni bond with 5-6% yield and less than 7 year maturity , 4-5% yield
tax free muni bond with insurance and less than 12 year maturity. Both of
them will beat most bond fund which put too much weight in Treasury bond and
agency bond.
http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/Bond.html
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: So you mean rebalance to 100% cash, or at least cash in all bond funds now？
: That sounds too conservative. Anything better than Cash at this point? I'm
: willing to take higher risk since I'm only in my 30's.
:
: the
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 15 刚看了一篇文章，see
http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/326028/342
里面有个图，可看出不同类型的Bond fund对美联储利率调整的敏感度是不同的。国债
的敏感度很高，而公司债敏感度不高，但公司债对经济的敏感度较高。
另外里面也提到PONDX，跌得没那两狠是因为PONDX里面国债比例不高，而是有很多
mortgages and EM bond debt，后者对利率敏感度相对较低。
同时文章也提到有研究表明，利率上升会导致国债的yield也上升，这会部分甚至全部
抵消NAV的降低，如果你不停的reinvest所有的yield，最后得到的实际收益率其实没有
多大变化。
"Studies show that if an investor purchases an intermediate term bond fund,
and reinvests the dividends, in ten years his/her total return very closely
approximates the initial starting yield, regardless of interest rate changes
."
综上，我觉得对手里已有的Bond fund，我觉得可以不动，对新钱，可以改投公司债。
欢迎拍砖。
【在 s**********6 的大作中提到】
: 可是，现在利率波动的快，短期的话，coupon也吃不到多少，价格也变动挺快的，为啥
: 就一定好呢？所谓的好，是否也只是相对长期的呢。
: 那么PONDX呢？我看有人说在目前市场环境下更好点。从目前价位反应看也是，跌的没
: 有那俩狠，它是seek to maximize current income， long-term capital
: appreciation is a secondary objective. 不过这个我们401K不能买，想买估计得开
: 个Fidelity账户。
:
: PTTDX
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 16 谢谢。直接买债券不知道怎么买，因为我的用于投资的钱基本都是在Roth IRA和401k里
面，401k就那么几个fund可选，Roth IRA在Fidelity好像也是只能买fund，股票。
能否推荐几个公司债的fund？地方政府债用Roth IRA买无法省税，所以就不考虑了。
yield
and
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: You can start to accumulate cash for short term individual corporate or
: taxable muni bond with 5-6% yield and less than 7 year maturity , 4-5% yield
: tax free muni bond with insurance and less than 12 year maturity. Both of
: them will beat most bond fund which put too much weight in Treasury bond and
: agency bond.
: http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/Bond.html
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 17 谢谢！我今晚仔细读读这篇文章。另外我看到PONDX里边，有的Position的Weight是负
的，应该是Short的吧？PTTRX里边貌似没有。不过PONDX在08年表现的非常不好，随后
很牛，整体来讲时间还是短了点，PTTRX时间检测窗口则是很长。
,
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 刚看了一篇文章，see
: http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/326028/342
: 里面有个图，可看出不同类型的Bond fund对美联储利率调整的敏感度是不同的。国债
: 的敏感度很高，而公司债敏感度不高，但公司债对经济的敏感度较高。
: 另外里面也提到PONDX，跌得没那两狠是因为PONDX里面国债比例不高，而是有很多
: mortgages and EM bond debt，后者对利率敏感度相对较低。
: 同时文章也提到有研究表明，利率上升会导致国债的yield也上升，这会部分甚至全部
: 抵消NAV的降低，如果你不停的reinvest所有的yield，最后得到的实际收益率其实没有
: 多大变化。
: "Studies show that if an investor purchases an intermediate term bond fund,
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 18 谢谢Yangqi大牛的思路。
yield
and
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: You can start to accumulate cash for short term individual corporate or
: taxable muni bond with 5-6% yield and less than 7 year maturity , 4-5% yield
: tax free muni bond with insurance and less than 12 year maturity. Both of
: them will beat most bond fund which put too much weight in Treasury bond and
: agency bond.
: http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/Bond.html
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 19 刚看了下，公司债/地方政府债的基金最近一个月也跌得蛮厉害的。see
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/high-yield-bo
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
所以yangqi大侠的意思“ start to accumulate cash for ...”是暂时hold cash，等
他们再跌一段时间再进场，是吗？ |
c*******e
发帖数: 8624 | 20 don't time market, just buy and hold, but bond fund looks too high if you're
under 55. typically, bond % = your age
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 刚看了下，公司债/地方政府债的基金最近一个月也跌得蛮厉害的。see
: http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/high-yield-bo
: http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
: 所以yangqi大侠的意思“ start to accumulate cash for ...”是暂时hold cash，等
: 他们再跌一段时间再进场，是吗？
|
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 21 it's funny that TLT got an impressive inversal after the start of
this thread, lol
re
【在 c*******e 的大作中提到】
: don't time market, just buy and hold, but bond fund looks too high if you're
: under 55. typically, bond % = your age
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 22 Two comments.
Your bond percentage is too high, get appropriate asset allocation.
Enjoy the sausage, not the sausage making, and eat it after you retire.
Which means, do not pay too much attention to individual holdings but the
whole portfolio, and ignore the short term noise.
呢？
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 手里的几个重仓Bond fund (i.e. PTTDX，属于US Intermediate-Term Bond类别的)最
: 近跌的很厉害，是不是应该换别的了？如果还想买Bond Fund，应该换什么类别呢？
: 只听说Long-term Bond类不能碰，short/intermediate term的怎么也跌的这么厉害呢？
: 如果现在bond fund都不能碰，股票又这么高，显然也不能碰，那该买什么呢？
: 求解惑。谢谢。
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 23 理论上说我这个年纪确实不应该重仓Bond，以前确实是重仓股票fund的，但08年经济危
机亏怕了，有的股票fund到现在还套着，后来看到Bond fund不比股票fund收益差，新
钱都买Bond fund了。我其实心也不黑，只希望能有个4-5%的收益率，别亏本就可以了
，bond fund风险低，最近几年收益又很高，是我重仓bond fund的原因。但最近bond有
点不好，所以想着应该降低Bond fund比例了。 |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 24 A few allocation funds such as Vanguard Wellington would likely serve you
well since you tend to looking for the problem child(ren) in your portfolio,
which often times leads to buy-high-and-sell-low.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 理论上说我这个年纪确实不应该重仓Bond，以前确实是重仓股票fund的，但08年经济危
: 机亏怕了，有的股票fund到现在还套着，后来看到Bond fund不比股票fund收益差，新
: 钱都买Bond fund了。我其实心也不黑，只希望能有个4-5%的收益率，别亏本就可以了
: ，bond fund风险低，最近几年收益又很高，是我重仓bond fund的原因。但最近bond有
: 点不好，所以想着应该降低Bond fund比例了。
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 25 Vanguard Wellington VWELX seems to be a fund with 70% stock + 30% bond。
Definitely higher risk than pure Bond Fund, of course, higher risk, higher
potential return. But with the stock market at all time high, do you think
it is a good time to switch all my bond funds to a few funds like Vanguard
Wellington? As yangqi said, stock market is at the end of bull and may soon
go into bear, then there may be huge loss instead of profit if I switch now.
Anything I can buy now with much lower risk, but can guarantee me
4-5% profit yearly?
portfolio,
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A few allocation funds such as Vanguard Wellington would likely serve you
: well since you tend to looking for the problem child(ren) in your portfolio,
: which often times leads to buy-high-and-sell-low.
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 26 You can buy taxable muni bond in Roth IRA or IRA. For example, CUSIP
204712FK4 give you 5.75% yield with 59.59 ask price, pay you $100 at 8/1/
2022, with AGM insured. No matter what the market price, your return is
fixed if you hold it to maturity. However, this is a so so deal because the
ask price is higher than 3rd party price and I bought 204712FG3 at 69.18
with 5.73% yield but mature at 8/1/2019, 3 year less. The time was 1/16/2013
when treasry bond yield was much lower than current. Thus for good
individual bond you buy it like catching a deal and the return can be higher
than bond fund.
soon
now.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: Vanguard Wellington VWELX seems to be a fund with 70% stock + 30% bond。
: Definitely higher risk than pure Bond Fund, of course, higher risk, higher
: potential return. But with the stock market at all time high, do you think
: it is a good time to switch all my bond funds to a few funds like Vanguard
: Wellington? As yangqi said, stock market is at the end of bull and may soon
: go into bear, then there may be huge loss instead of profit if I switch now.
: Anything I can buy now with much lower risk, but can guarantee me
: 4-5% profit yearly?
:
: portfolio,
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 27 Thank you very much for your detail example. I have never bought a bond
directly, but glad to learn something new. Does AGM insured mean that even
the municipal bankrupts, my investment is still safe?
So how about liquidity of buying a bond? Can I sell it anytime? If I sell it
before the maturity date, is it still possible to profit? Any penalty like
early redemption of CD?
the
2013
higher
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: You can buy taxable muni bond in Roth IRA or IRA. For example, CUSIP
: 204712FK4 give you 5.75% yield with 59.59 ask price, pay you $100 at 8/1/
: 2022, with AGM insured. No matter what the market price, your return is
: fixed if you hold it to maturity. However, this is a so so deal because the
: ask price is higher than 3rd party price and I bought 204712FG3 at 69.18
: with 5.73% yield but mature at 8/1/2019, 3 year less. The time was 1/16/2013
: when treasry bond yield was much lower than current. Thus for good
: individual bond you buy it like catching a deal and the return can be higher
: than bond fund.
:
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 28 Yes, unless both the bond issuer and AGM bankrupt.
You are talking about the liquidity risk which is very important for bond.
No penalty like early redemption as CD. But buying a callable bond with
premium will have a loss if the issuer call it back earlier by par value.
General speaking, corporate bond is better than municipal bond for liquidity
because you can sell it online like stock. However, you lose the
protection by the monoliner insurance.
For example, Cliff natural resources (CLF) has 3/15/2020 maturity bond with
yield 5.8%, 100.6$ ask price with 5.9% coupon. You can sell it with $100.3
bid price online like stock.
For municipal bond, you have to call Fidelity to get the bid quote and
decide which bond to sell. If the bid quote is higher than 3rd party price
though very rare, sell it ASAP. For example, I sold 49224PBH3 for $111 at 2/
26, the bid quote was even higher than 3rd party price $109.723. Of course,
if you really need a lot of money, you have to sell it even the bid quote is
much lower than 3rd party price. However, I think it is still better than
real estate which you have to sell it as a whole unit and pay agent 6%
commission. Thus, diversify your portfolio with different individual bond
and sell the one with capital gain or the bid quote is higher or closest to
3rd party price when you need the money. The cost is 0.3-5% dependent on the
bond liquidity. It is really dependent on your purchase price to see if you
have capital gain or loss. If you have enough room for profit, selling it
with large spreading is ok because you still have capital gains. For example
, I sold 861402DF9 at 5/21 for $89.5 even the 3rd party price was $96. But I
still have $5 gain for each $100 face value bond because my purchase price
was $84.5.
Another example 204712FF5, bought at 1/29/2013 at $71.957 for 6% yield
mature at 8/1/2018, sold at 5/1/2013 at $76. Cost basis was adjusted to 73.5
, 76-73.5=2.5$ capital gain plus 73.5-72=1.5$ bond interest for holding 3
month.
it
like
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: Thank you very much for your detail example. I have never bought a bond
: directly, but glad to learn something new. Does AGM insured mean that even
: the municipal bankrupts, my investment is still safe?
: So how about liquidity of buying a bond? Can I sell it anytime? If I sell it
: before the maturity date, is it still possible to profit? Any penalty like
: early redemption of CD?
:
: the
: 2013
: higher
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 29 Your previous history of timing market did not seems to be very successful,
did it? If that is the case, what make you think this time will be different
. Even so, how about next time?
If anyone is so sure the bear will take over soon, (s)he probably should
short the market and leverage up to make a killing.
The TNX yield 2.23% today, anything above that will get some risk involved,
so do not dream about 4-5% risk free. However, for example currently
emerging market equities are reasonably priced or a little undervalued, they
can certainly get cheaper or even much cheaper, but I expect them to double
in about seven years from current level. I do not think the same can be
said for other assets, granted, they may be less volatile.
soon
now.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: Vanguard Wellington VWELX seems to be a fund with 70% stock + 30% bond。
: Definitely higher risk than pure Bond Fund, of course, higher risk, higher
: potential return. But with the stock market at all time high, do you think
: it is a good time to switch all my bond funds to a few funds like Vanguard
: Wellington? As yangqi said, stock market is at the end of bull and may soon
: go into bear, then there may be huge loss instead of profit if I switch now.
: Anything I can buy now with much lower risk, but can guarantee me
: 4-5% profit yearly?
:
: portfolio,
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 30 sell, sell, sell all your bond fund for sure... Actually, you are too late..
.
呢？
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 手里的几个重仓Bond fund (i.e. PTTDX，属于US Intermediate-Term Bond类别的)最
: 近跌的很厉害，是不是应该换别的了？如果还想买Bond Fund，应该换什么类别呢？
: 只听说Long-term Bond类不能碰，short/intermediate term的怎么也跌的这么厉害呢？
: 如果现在bond fund都不能碰，股票又这么高，显然也不能碰，那该买什么呢？
: 求解惑。谢谢。
|
|
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 31 fundamental is changing completely in coming years.. no cheap money soon...
bond 的好日子到头了。。
【在 s**********6 的大作中提到】
: 一直觉得Pimco的什么PTTRX，PTTDX，PONDX都满不错的。今年，最近以来表现奇差。
: PTTRX按说快30年了，只有一年是YOY的Return为负，今年也handle不了了？还有那个
: AGNC，晕，买了以后跌跌不休，还好试水买了点，但是看它每天这样子，真烦。
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 32 不是说要适时rebalance你的potofolio吗？rebalance不就是一种timing？照你这样说
，就不应该rebalance，选好一个股债比例的fund，无脑一直买下去就行了。
,
different
,
they
double
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Your previous history of timing market did not seems to be very successful,
: did it? If that is the case, what make you think this time will be different
: . Even so, how about next time?
: If anyone is so sure the bear will take over soon, (s)he probably should
: short the market and leverage up to make a killing.
: The TNX yield 2.23% today, anything above that will get some risk involved,
: so do not dream about 4-5% risk free. However, for example currently
: emerging market equities are reasonably priced or a little undervalued, they
: can certainly get cheaper or even much cheaper, but I expect them to double
: in about seven years from current level. I do not think the same can be
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 33 AFAIK, Jack Bogle does not rebalance, and the purpose is more about risk
control rather than generate excessive returns.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 不是说要适时rebalance你的potofolio吗？rebalance不就是一种timing？照你这样说
: ，就不应该rebalance，选好一个股债比例的fund，无脑一直买下去就行了。
:
: ,
: different
: ,
: they
: double
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 34 you can rebalance any way you want
but doing it with emotions has higher odd to bring you more pains
have you noticed that bond started going higher after you wanted to sell
it only because of its recent weakness?
having said that, I personally suggest to sell it and don't touch it
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 不是说要适时rebalance你的potofolio吗？rebalance不就是一种timing？照你这样说
: ，就不应该rebalance，选好一个股债比例的fund，无脑一直买下去就行了。
:
: ,
: different
: ,
: they
: double
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 35 刚看了一则新闻，讲QE退场对债市和股市的影响,以及接下来资金如何布局。 见下视频
http://video.udn.com/video/Item/ItemPage.do?sno=324-233-2F303-2
“分析師認為，如果量化寬鬆政策真的退場，債券市場將會受到衝擊，不過，這也代表
景氣好轉，可視為由債市轉進股市的時機。”
看来最近债市的大跌只是刚起了个头。与你最后一句结论相符。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: you can rebalance any way you want
: but doing it with emotions has higher odd to bring you more pains
: have you noticed that bond started going higher after you wanted to sell
: it only because of its recent weakness?
: having said that, I personally suggest to sell it and don't touch it
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 36 making decisions on news or 分析师's comments is another way of losing
money.
those who sell bonds but buy stocks now anticipating money will flow as
they wish will be the bag holders again.
have to get in front of the curve if one wants to time the market.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article1/Stock/34595159_3_0.html
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 刚看了一则新闻，讲QE退场对债市和股市的影响,以及接下来资金如何布局。 见下视频
: http://video.udn.com/video/Item/ItemPage.do?sno=324-233-2F303-2
: “分析師認為，如果量化寬鬆政策真的退場，債券市場將會受到衝擊，不過，這也代表
: 景氣好轉，可視為由債市轉進股市的時機。”
: 看来最近债市的大跌只是刚起了个头。与你最后一句结论相符。
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s******e
发帖数: 1751 | 37 Now you can appreciate "bond fund风险低" more...
and when FED cut QE3, you would expect to see more of that, soon.
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 理论上说我这个年纪确实不应该重仓Bond，以前确实是重仓股票fund的，但08年经济危
: 机亏怕了，有的股票fund到现在还套着，后来看到Bond fund不比股票fund收益差，新
: 钱都买Bond fund了。我其实心也不黑，只希望能有个4-5%的收益率，别亏本就可以了
: ，bond fund风险低，最近几年收益又很高，是我重仓bond fund的原因。但最近bond有
: 点不好，所以想着应该降低Bond fund比例了。
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 38 bond fund风险低是相对stock fund来说的，这点没有异议吧？
Fed cut QE3后，国债利率必然上涨，那些买国债的Bond Fund的yield也会相应上涨，
抵消NAV的下跌。我的一个Bond fund在Scottrade里面显示Unrealized Gain/Loss是-2.
5%，但我比较一下我当时投进去的钱和现在fund的价值，不仅不是亏2.5%，而是赚2.7%
，就是因为我不停的reinvest yield，scottrade算gain/loss的时候没有把yield算进
去。
现在的问题是Bond Fund价格有点虚高，将来一段时间价格的下降可能比yield的上升来
得更快，但长期来说，并不会亏到哪里去。
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: Now you can appreciate "bond fund风险低" more...
: and when FED cut QE3, you would expect to see more of that, soon.
|
s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 39 理论上来讲，合理分配的portfolio很重要，任何重仓bond或stock都是不应该的。
理论上来讲，不要timing the market。把portfolilo balance好就行了。
理论上来讲，Bond fund持有的时间足够长，yield的上涨会抵消NAV的下跌。
理论上来讲，买individual bond不一定会比bond fund收益更好或风险更低。
2.
7%
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: bond fund风险低是相对stock fund来说的，这点没有异议吧？
: Fed cut QE3后，国债利率必然上涨，那些买国债的Bond Fund的yield也会相应上涨，
: 抵消NAV的下跌。我的一个Bond fund在Scottrade里面显示Unrealized Gain/Loss是-2.
: 5%，但我比较一下我当时投进去的钱和现在fund的价值，不仅不是亏2.5%，而是赚2.7%
: ，就是因为我不停的reinvest yield，scottrade算gain/loss的时候没有把yield算进
: 去。
: 现在的问题是Bond Fund价格有点虚高，将来一段时间价格的下降可能比yield的上升来
: 得更快，但长期来说，并不会亏到哪里去。
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n****s
发帖数: 138 | 40 I get ride of bond mutual fund one year ago. Rate will go up and bond price
will significantly go down...
呢？
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 手里的几个重仓Bond fund (i.e. PTTDX，属于US Intermediate-Term Bond类别的)最
: 近跌的很厉害，是不是应该换别的了？如果还想买Bond Fund，应该换什么类别呢？
: 只听说Long-term Bond类不能碰，short/intermediate term的怎么也跌的这么厉害呢？
: 如果现在bond fund都不能碰，股票又这么高，显然也不能碰，那该买什么呢？
: 求解惑。谢谢。
|
|
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 41 Rate go up, bond yield go up, 会抵消 Bond fund price go down，长期来看，Bond
至少不会亏，只是profit没有股票那么高罢了，但风险也比股票小得多，对于不能承受
风险的人还是适合的。所以不能一概而论。
price
【在 n****s 的大作中提到】
: I get ride of bond mutual fund one year ago. Rate will go up and bond price
: will significantly go down...
:
: 呢？
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 42 it seems like you know what you should to do, why ask?
Bond
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: Rate go up, bond yield go up, 会抵消 Bond fund price go down，长期来看，Bond
: 至少不会亏，只是profit没有股票那么高罢了，但风险也比股票小得多，对于不能承受
: 风险的人还是适合的。所以不能一概而论。
:
: price
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 43 I'm looking for higher return with slightly higher risk. I decided to go
with Corp Bond fund and Moderate Allocation fund based on the discussion
here.
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 p**h 的大作中提到】
: it seems like you know what you should to do, why ask?
:
: Bond
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 44 If I were you, I won't buy any bond fund from now on! If you really want to
invest in bond, buy high quality Corp bond (not junk bond) only. However,
you MUST lower your expectation on the return of bond... Fed is starting
tapper, no more cheap money, bond 的好日子过去了
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: I'm looking for higher return with slightly higher risk. I decided to go
: with Corp Bond fund and Moderate Allocation fund based on the discussion
: here.
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 45 这两天买了些Muni，closed end funds. Tax free yield > 6.5% (using 40%
leverage)+9-10% discount to NAV.
我觉得对国债/Muni，End of QE短期是利空，中期是利好，美国经济和房市还远远没到
自行恢复的阶段。QE一停，经济指标会恶化，再加上外围市场避险，美元回流，利率还
得下去
呢？
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 手里的几个重仓Bond fund (i.e. PTTDX，属于US Intermediate-Term Bond类别的)最
: 近跌的很厉害，是不是应该换别的了？如果还想买Bond Fund，应该换什么类别呢？
: 只听说Long-term Bond类不能碰，short/intermediate term的怎么也跌的这么厉害呢？
: 如果现在bond fund都不能碰，股票又这么高，显然也不能碰，那该买什么呢？
: 求解惑。谢谢。
|
n******i
发帖数: 374 | 46
,
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 刚看了一篇文章，see
: http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/326028/342
: 里面有个图，可看出不同类型的Bond fund对美联储利率调整的敏感度是不同的。国债
: 的敏感度很高，而公司债敏感度不高，但公司债对经济的敏感度较高。
: 另外里面也提到PONDX，跌得没那两狠是因为PONDX里面国债比例不高，而是有很多
: mortgages and EM bond debt，后者对利率敏感度相对较低。
: 同时文章也提到有研究表明，利率上升会导致国债的yield也上升，这会部分甚至全部
: 抵消NAV的降低，如果你不停的reinvest所有的yield，最后得到的实际收益率其实没有
: 多大变化。
: "Studies show that if an investor purchases an intermediate term bond fund,
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