y****i
发帖数: 778 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Bond 俱乐部 】
发信人: yangqi (zzzzzz), 信区: Bond
标 题: A historical look at bond bear markets
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 10 01:16:56 2013, 美东)
https://www.savantcapital.com/uploadedFiles/Savant_CMS_Website/Resources/
Market_Commentary/Recent_Commentaries/A%20Historical%20Look%20at%20Bond%
20Bear%20Markets%20-%20March%202011.pdf
Again, prepare for the worst but individual bond investors can hold them
until maturity and buy more high yield bonds with new money. |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 2 For bond funds in 401k, recommend LSBDX or LSFIX, Loomis Sayles bond fund or
fixed income fund. They are multi sector bond funds which can go up with
equity like stocks or junk bonds but down side risks are much smaller.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Bond 俱乐部 】
: 发信人: yangqi (zzzzzz), 信区: Bond
: 标 题: A historical look at bond bear markets
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 10 01:16:56 2013, 美东)
: https://www.savantcapital.com/uploadedFiles/Savant_CMS_Website/Resources/
: Market_Commentary/Recent_Commentaries/A%20Historical%20Look%20at%20Bond%
: 20Bear%20Markets%20-%20March%202011.pdf
: Again, prepare for the worst but individual bond investors can hold them
: until maturity and buy more high yield bonds with new money.
|
S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 3 我一直在关注high yield bonds， 和portfolio manager谈了下，从回报/安全性看，
是不错的选择。
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: For bond funds in 401k, recommend LSBDX or LSFIX, Loomis Sayles bond fund or
: fixed income fund. They are multi sector bond funds which can go up with
: equity like stocks or junk bonds but down side risks are much smaller.
|
z****l
发帖数: 5282 | 4 已经是bubble了，你才关注？
【在 S*******s 的大作中提到】
: 我一直在关注high yield bonds， 和portfolio manager谈了下，从回报/安全性看，
: 是不错的选择。
|
r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 5 She is right this time.
Many people are talking about the junk bond bubble but it's unlikely to
happen
this year. The yield is about 6% now which is much lower than 2008 but the
risk
free rate is also at historical low today (0-25bps). So the credit spread is
still decent at 500+bps. The current trailing default rate is about 3%,
which is
well below the breakeven default rate. The bubble may burst sometime in the
future, but it's unlikely to happen this year as Fed will not hike rates
until
mid of 2015. I think you can still get 5% return this year, with low
volatility.
Which means high yield is not bad if you adjust return by it's risk.
【在 z****l 的大作中提到】
: 已经是bubble了，你才关注？
|
S*******s
发帖数: 10098 | 6 再次被你的knowledge humble了。5.0%-6.5%不难弄到，投资包包里头很多东西， 即便
default一两个也不怎么影响整个return.
is
the
【在 r*******y 的大作中提到】
: She is right this time.
: Many people are talking about the junk bond bubble but it's unlikely to
: happen
: this year. The yield is about 6% now which is much lower than 2008 but the
: risk
: free rate is also at historical low today (0-25bps). So the credit spread is
: still decent at 500+bps. The current trailing default rate is about 3%,
: which is
: well below the breakeven default rate. The bubble may burst sometime in the
: future, but it's unlikely to happen this year as Fed will not hike rates
|
