r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 1 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
的年收益。
实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
现在两个问题
1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
dollar average down，所以恢复后就offset了那些loss？
可是那些model portfolio suppose 也是要rebalance的
难道在downturn熊市 的时候 DAD 是个比 rebalance 更好的策略？
2. Rebalance 的cost 难道不是让index fund 出局了，rebalance 频率应该是多少才
合理呢？ |
s********y
发帖数: 3811 | 2 index fund is the right strategy. you don't have to beat 5.3%.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 3 find a financial advisor |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 4 index fund 的 cost 一般都是最低的。因为 turn over rate 很低。怎么到你那
变成最高的就直接出局了？
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 5 some funds have minimum holding period, right? if I sell earlier, there will
be a penalty fee??
BTW:
What is the best rebalance strategy? Calendar or Band based?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: index fund 的 cost 一般都是最低的。因为 turn over rate 很低。怎么到你那
: 变成最高的就直接出局了？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 6 Most MFs have minimum holding period. However, it shouldn't be
your problem, because MFs are not supposed to be traded frequently.
And you only need to rebalance at most twice a year.
I don't know calendar or band, which one is better. I have the
impression that band is better. But I am not sure.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: some funds have minimum holding period, right? if I sell earlier, there will
: be a penalty fee??
: BTW:
: What is the best rebalance strategy? Calendar or Band based?
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 7 贴几个research到的model portfolio
Burton Malkiel (princeton professor) model portfolio
他的组合号称可以在2000-2009 这样的时期仍然double.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Burton Malkiel studied a diversified mutual
strategy and found that an investor could have almost doubled his money from
2000 to the end of 2009 by using index funds. He looked at broadly based,
low cost index mutual funds that focused on U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks,
developed foreign markets, stocks in emerging markets and real estate
securities.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/all-weather-investing-with-etfs.asp#ixzz27bFMGHdt
Low-Cost Expert Investment Portfolio (Burton Malkiel)
http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/investment-portfolio-finder/tabl |
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 8 7Twelve model by Dr. Craig Israelsen 另一个大学教书匠
要花$350买才能看到他的portfolio的具体构成，不过网上有人贴出来了。
http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/7TwelveModel.html
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=48533
Active 7twelve portfolio:
DODGX
FAIRX
RYPNX
DODFX
VEIEX
TVRVX
PRNEX
DBC
DODIX
VIPSX
RPIBX
VMMXX
Passive 7twelve portfolio:
SPY
MDY
VBR
EFA
VWO
VNQ
IGE
DBC
LAG
TIP
BWX
VMMXX |
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 9 Mebane Faber (10 month average ~= momentum )
采用200天移动平均线作为操作标准，如果某asset class跌过平均线就卖出，持有现金
，不rebalance，直到买入信号出现，这个实际上market timing了，已经违背了
基本的index 投资的原则，但是 bogleheads 多人back test的结果都是出奇的好，
不仅可以有效避免两次大熊市，而且牛市表现也不俗。
The work of Mebane Faber demonstrates that moderately active management can
help investors avoid the worst of bear markets. Faber looked at five asset
classes - U.S. stocks, foreign stocks, real estate, commodities and the U.S.
10-year Treasury bonds. He used a simple buy rule, holding the asset only
when it was above its 10-month moving average.
The moving average is designed to look beyond the short-term trends within
price data and help investors spot the longer-term trend. Faber's study
assumes that you only own the asset class when it is on a buy signal. When
prices fall below the 10-month average, you move to cash for that portion of
the portfolio. The results are impressive, an average annual return of 11.
27% from 1973 through the devastating bear market of 2008.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/all-weather-investing-with-etfs.asp#ixzz27bKC91zM
Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation by Faber
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=72400
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27460
back test show 这个方法成功地避免了2008，2009的熊市。 |
F******w
发帖数: 1278 | 10 don't. they are young good looking guys who knows how to talk.
they don't know shit.
normally losers became financial advisors.
【在 s********z 的大作中提到】
: find a financial advisor
|
|
|
J*y
发帖数: 271 | 11 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
"money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
是我的理解有误？
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 12 这些玩意儿都是跳大神，经不起推敲的
and
星。
【在 J*y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
: "money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
: deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
: 把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
: morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
: 难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
: 是我的理解有误？
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 14 Dependent on how long term and in your taxable or tax deferred account. For
me, the easiest long term for taxable account is individual muni bond. It
guarantee your investment doubled for 15 years if you like semiannually
interest payment or 12 years if you choose zero coupon, and all interests
are tax free. If in your tax deferred account, then BBB Investment grade
corporate bond like Genworth 6-8 percent yield 7-9 year
maturity, m-REIT like ARR or AGNC 15 percent yield, business development
company （BDC）like PSEC 10-11 percent yield. All are good for Ira or Roth
IRA, buy the dip for each section. For all investment, you can sell it when
the capital gain is high enough or the yield is too low which means you need
to switch sections. |
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 15 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
For
when
need
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Dependent on how long term and in your taxable or tax deferred account. For
: me, the easiest long term for taxable account is individual muni bond. It
: guarantee your investment doubled for 15 years if you like semiannually
: interest payment or 12 years if you choose zero coupon, and all interests
: are tax free. If in your tax deferred account, then BBB Investment grade
: corporate bond like Genworth 6-8 percent yield 7-9 year
: maturity, m-REIT like ARR or AGNC 15 percent yield, business development
: company （BDC）like PSEC 10-11 percent yield. All are good for Ira or Roth
: IRA, buy the dip for each section. For all investment, you can sell it when
: the capital gain is high enough or the yield is too low which means you need
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 16 I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
considered because their asset is small.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
:
: For
: when
: need
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 17 I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
considered because their asset is small.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
:
: For
: when
: need
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 18 You are talking about general rules without considering the market condition
. For example, there is a huge difference between recommending real estate
investment now and recommending real estate investment in 2006.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
: with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
: there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
: the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
: investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
: investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
: because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
: who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
: considered because their asset is small.
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 19 其实他是sector rotation的意思。 上一年没有涨的sector， 会在这一年补涨； 上一
年涨太多的， 这一年的momentum 就会减弱， 没有只涨不跌的投资产品， 都是涨落参
现地
and
星。
【在 J*y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
: "money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
: deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
: 把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
: morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
: 难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
: 是我的理解有误？
|
n****k
发帖数: 516 | 20 5年略亏。。。。。。貌似你把钱换rmb打回国内定存好了。。。。。。
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
|
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 21 天下没有免费的午餐
如果想beat index, 你需要花很多的时间, 同时也要有足够的耐心和天份.
省事的是直接投index mutual fund, 成本最低, 收益一般能保证打败inflation
如果想更高的回报, 可以选择一些 GROWTH MUTUAL FUND, 不过这可能需要你花一定时
间去一次性考察比较各个fund
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 22 Thanks
I am debating on whether to choose index mutual fund or ETF, what is your
opinion?
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 天下没有免费的午餐
: 如果想beat index, 你需要花很多的时间, 同时也要有足够的耐心和天份.
: 省事的是直接投index mutual fund, 成本最低, 收益一般能保证打败inflation
: 如果想更高的回报, 可以选择一些 GROWTH MUTUAL FUND, 不过这可能需要你花一定时
: 间去一次性考察比较各个fund
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 23 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
的年收益。
实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
现在两个问题
1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
dollar average down，所以恢复后就offset了那些loss？
可是那些model portfolio suppose 也是要rebalance的
难道在downturn熊市 的时候 DAD 是个比 rebalance 更好的策略？
2. Rebalance 的cost 难道不是让index fund 出局了，rebalance 频率应该是多少才
合理呢？ |
s********y
发帖数: 3811 | 24 index fund is the right strategy. you don't have to beat 5.3%.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
s********z
发帖数: 5411 | 25 find a financial advisor |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 26 index fund 的 cost 一般都是最低的。因为 turn over rate 很低。怎么到你那
变成最高的就直接出局了？
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 27 some funds have minimum holding period, right? if I sell earlier, there will
be a penalty fee??
BTW:
What is the best rebalance strategy? Calendar or Band based?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: index fund 的 cost 一般都是最低的。因为 turn over rate 很低。怎么到你那
: 变成最高的就直接出局了？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 28 Most MFs have minimum holding period. However, it shouldn't be
your problem, because MFs are not supposed to be traded frequently.
And you only need to rebalance at most twice a year.
I don't know calendar or band, which one is better. I have the
impression that band is better. But I am not sure.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: some funds have minimum holding period, right? if I sell earlier, there will
: be a penalty fee??
: BTW:
: What is the best rebalance strategy? Calendar or Band based?
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 29 贴几个research到的model portfolio
Burton Malkiel (princeton professor) model portfolio
他的组合号称可以在2000-2009 这样的时期仍然double.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Burton Malkiel studied a diversified mutual
strategy and found that an investor could have almost doubled his money from
2000 to the end of 2009 by using index funds. He looked at broadly based,
low cost index mutual funds that focused on U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks,
developed foreign markets, stocks in emerging markets and real estate
securities.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/all-weather-investing-with-etfs.asp#ixzz27bFMGHdt
Low-Cost Expert Investment Portfolio (Burton Malkiel)
http://www.kiplinger.com/tools/investment-portfolio-finder/tabl |
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 30 7Twelve model by Dr. Craig Israelsen 另一个大学教书匠
要花$350买才能看到他的portfolio的具体构成，不过网上有人贴出来了。
http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/7TwelveModel.html
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=48533
Active 7twelve portfolio:
DODGX
FAIRX
RYPNX
DODFX
VEIEX
TVRVX
PRNEX
DBC
DODIX
VIPSX
RPIBX
VMMXX
Passive 7twelve portfolio:
SPY
MDY
VBR
EFA
VWO
VNQ
IGE
DBC
LAG
TIP
BWX
VMMXX |
|
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 31 Mebane Faber (10 month average ~= momentum )
采用200天移动平均线作为操作标准，如果某asset class跌过平均线就卖出，持有现金
，不rebalance，直到买入信号出现，这个实际上market timing了，已经违背了
基本的index 投资的原则，但是 bogleheads 多人back test的结果都是出奇的好，
不仅可以有效避免两次大熊市，而且牛市表现也不俗。
The work of Mebane Faber demonstrates that moderately active management can
help investors avoid the worst of bear markets. Faber looked at five asset
classes - U.S. stocks, foreign stocks, real estate, commodities and the U.S.
10-year Treasury bonds. He used a simple buy rule, holding the asset only
when it was above its 10-month moving average.
The moving average is designed to look beyond the short-term trends within
price data and help investors spot the longer-term trend. Faber's study
assumes that you only own the asset class when it is on a buy signal. When
prices fall below the 10-month average, you move to cash for that portion of
the portfolio. The results are impressive, an average annual return of 11.
27% from 1973 through the devastating bear market of 2008.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/all-weather-investing-with-etfs.asp#ixzz27bKC91zM
Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation by Faber
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=72400
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27460
back test show 这个方法成功地避免了2008，2009的熊市。 |
F******w
发帖数: 1278 | 32 don't. they are young good looking guys who knows how to talk.
they don't know shit.
normally losers became financial advisors.
【在 s********z 的大作中提到】
: find a financial advisor
|
J*y
发帖数: 271 | 33 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
"money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
是我的理解有误？
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 34 这些玩意儿都是跳大神，经不起推敲的
and
星。
【在 J*y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
: "money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
: deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
: 把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
: morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
: 难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
: 是我的理解有误？
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 36 Dependent on how long term and in your taxable or tax deferred account. For
me, the easiest long term for taxable account is individual muni bond. It
guarantee your investment doubled for 15 years if you like semiannually
interest payment or 12 years if you choose zero coupon, and all interests
are tax free. If in your tax deferred account, then BBB Investment grade
corporate bond like Genworth 6-8 percent yield 7-9 year
maturity, m-REIT like ARR or AGNC 15 percent yield, business development
company （BDC）like PSEC 10-11 percent yield. All are good for Ira or Roth
IRA, buy the dip for each section. For all investment, you can sell it when
the capital gain is high enough or the yield is too low which means you need
to switch sections. |
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 37 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
For
when
need
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Dependent on how long term and in your taxable or tax deferred account. For
: me, the easiest long term for taxable account is individual muni bond. It
: guarantee your investment doubled for 15 years if you like semiannually
: interest payment or 12 years if you choose zero coupon, and all interests
: are tax free. If in your tax deferred account, then BBB Investment grade
: corporate bond like Genworth 6-8 percent yield 7-9 year
: maturity, m-REIT like ARR or AGNC 15 percent yield, business development
: company （BDC）like PSEC 10-11 percent yield. All are good for Ira or Roth
: IRA, buy the dip for each section. For all investment, you can sell it when
: the capital gain is high enough or the yield is too low which means you need
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 38 I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
considered because their asset is small.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
:
: For
: when
: need
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 39 I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
considered because their asset is small.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 利率接近0的时候你推荐人家买bond？先学习学习bond price和利率的关系吧。
:
: For
: when
: need
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 40 You are talking about general rules without considering the market condition
. For example, there is a huge difference between recommending real estate
investment now and recommending real estate investment in 2006.
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: I do not recommend any treasury bond, agency bond or any individual bond
: with underlying rating above AA because the yield is too low. Of course
: there always are interest and inflation risks, but nobody can predict when
: the interest will take off and stock will do better than low rating
: investment bond or junk bond. If you have large asset, boring bond
: investment provide monthly fixed income which is better than real estate
: because you don't need to deal with bad renters. Of course for the person
: who still need downpayment for their first house, stock or even option is
: considered because their asset is small.
|
|
|
p**h
发帖数: 1105 | 41 其实他是sector rotation的意思。 上一年没有涨的sector， 会在这一年补涨； 上一
年涨太多的， 这一年的momentum 就会减弱， 没有只涨不跌的投资产品， 都是涨落参
现地
and
星。
【在 J*y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人提到每年rebalance portfolio:
: "money is taken out of the funds that performed better in the prior year and
: deposited into the funds that under-performed in the prior year"
: 把钱从上一年表现好的基金中拿出来，投入到去年表现不好的基金中？
: morning star rating 五星的基金不都是根据过去的表现？表现不好才降级到三星一星。
: 难道要从五星放到一星的基金？
: 是我的理解有误？
|
n****k
发帖数: 516 | 42 5年略亏。。。。。。貌似你把钱换rmb打回国内定存好了。。。。。。
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 43 天下没有免费的午餐
如果想beat index, 你需要花很多的时间, 同时也要有足够的耐心和天份.
省事的是直接投index mutual fund, 成本最低, 收益一般能保证打败inflation
如果想更高的回报, 可以选择一些 GROWTH MUTUAL FUND, 不过这可能需要你花一定时
间去一次性考察比较各个fund
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 到底怎样投资呢，这五年自己买的股票收益是略亏, 还不如公司的401k，五年是5.3%
: 的年收益。
: 实在不想在这上花费时间，所以想就用index fund 或者ETF 做个asset allocation
: based portofolio, 定期做rebalance，能达到或超过401k的收益就可以了
: 现在两个问题
: 1. 寻找合适的portfolio model中发现了这个lazy portfolio
: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_Portfolios
: 结果based on the links below 发现没有一个能超越五年5.3% 的
: http://assetbuilder.com/couch_potato/couch_potato_results.aspx
: 很纳闷啊，难道是因为公司的401k portofolio在2009 大跌时期一直仍然在被动的
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 44 Thanks
I am debating on whether to choose index mutual fund or ETF, what is your
opinion?
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 天下没有免费的午餐
: 如果想beat index, 你需要花很多的时间, 同时也要有足够的耐心和天份.
: 省事的是直接投index mutual fund, 成本最低, 收益一般能保证打败inflation
: 如果想更高的回报, 可以选择一些 GROWTH MUTUAL FUND, 不过这可能需要你花一定时
: 间去一次性考察比较各个fund
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 45 看到一个有趣的投资组合
Harry Browne 4 x25 permanent portfolio
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2009/04/20/fail-safe-investin
25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of
prosperity. For this portion of the portfolio, Browne recommends a basic S&P
500 index fund such as VFINX or FSKMX.
25% in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which do well during prosperity
and during deflation (but which do poorly during other economic cycles).
25% in cash in order to hedge against periods of “tight money” or
recession. In this case, “cash” means a money-market fund. (Note that our
current recession is abnormal because money actually isn’t tight —
interest rates are very low.)
25% in precious metals (gold, specifically) in order to provide
protection during periods of inflation. Browne recommends gold bullion coins.
个人认为 似乎 25% cash， 25% gold 风险很大，虽然这个组合在过去十年中回报很
好，主要是因为黄金的暴涨。
理念： 经济的四个周期
First is an assumption that at all times the economy is experiencing one of
four conditions. Those being
Prosperity
Deflation
Inflation
Tight Money - Recession
Within the PP each asset class functions independently of the other three
and is designed to protect you in one of the four conditions listed above.
Specifically...
Stocks rise dramatically during periods of prosperity.
Long Term US Government Bonds rise dramatically during periods of deflation.
Gold rises dramatically during periods of inflation/currency debasement and
also protects you against catastrophic events like war or civil unrest.
Cash is the only neutral asset and it provides a cushion against periods
when central banks tighten the money supply creating a recession and also
allows you to handle unexpected emergencies in life without having to sell
other assets, possibly at a disadvantageous time. |
y**u
发帖数: 426 | 46 Personally I prefer ETF due to the low expense ratios and flexibility to
sell.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: Thanks
: I am debating on whether to choose index mutual fund or ETF, what is your
: opinion?
|
r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 47 sb back tested this, the return is very good
http://madmoneymachine.com/portfolios/
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12737&start=0
&P
our
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 看到一个有趣的投资组合
: Harry Browne 4 x25 permanent portfolio
: http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2009/04/20/fail-safe-investin
: 25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of
: prosperity. For this portion of the portfolio, Browne recommends a basic S&P
: 500 index fund such as VFINX or FSKMX.
: 25% in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which do well during prosperity
: and during deflation (but which do poorly during other economic cycles).
: 25% in cash in order to hedge against periods of “tight money” or
: recession. In this case, “cash” means a money-market fund. (Note that our
|
w**1
发帖数: 1014 | |
c*****e
发帖数: 3226 | 49 顶好文
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: 7Twelve model by Dr. Craig Israelsen 另一个大学教书匠
: 要花$350买才能看到他的portfolio的具体构成，不过网上有人贴出来了。
: http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/7TwelveModel.html
: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=48533
: Active 7twelve portfolio:
: DODGX
: FAIRX
: RYPNX
: DODFX
: VEIEX
|
