a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 1 buy equity+gold in dip 是大本任期内的投资主旋律。 | p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 2 Monetary policy has its limitation. Bernanke cannot push a string. What can
he do anymore? Short-term treasury rate is already zero (although FED did
poll primary dealers if they would accept negative rates). Long-term
treasury rate is also low enough. He can only probably further lowing the
mortgage rate, but with tough qualification and high unemployment rate, the
applicant pool is limited.
In fact, all these policies have negative consequences. Now investors are
holding cash and don't dare to invest as a result. Want to buy a rental
property? What if tomorrow, the mortgage deduction for investment property
is eliminated or qualification of rental property loan is changed? (In CA,
what if prop 13 is repealed?)
What if Freddie and Fannie who own the majority of the US foreclosure right
now suddenly decide to enter the rental market and be your competitor? What
if there is debt forgiveness plan that locks your potential tenants into
their existing under-water house forever?
Without housing market recovery, there is no construction recovery and so
goes the unemployment rates. I would think that rewarding responsible savers
who are better at capital management is the best policy. But somehow, our
government thinks that "print and pray" is the best policy for the country.
Maybe they can kick the can down the road farther enough, we will all be
dead when the days of reckoning would happen. But I won't bet on it.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: buy equity+gold in dip 是大本任期内的投资主旋律。
| a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 3 Even without a recovery of real economy,the stock market can hold high, if
Bernanke injects endless amount of money into the market.
Since real state market is uncertain, while the stock market can
be pushed high and becomes rewarding as it has shown since August,
the hot money will chase into the stock market.
can
the
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Monetary policy has its limitation. Bernanke cannot push a string. What can
: he do anymore? Short-term treasury rate is already zero (although FED did
: poll primary dealers if they would accept negative rates). Long-term
: treasury rate is also low enough. He can only probably further lowing the
: mortgage rate, but with tough qualification and high unemployment rate, the
: applicant pool is limited.
: In fact, all these policies have negative consequences. Now investors are
: holding cash and don't dare to invest as a result. Want to buy a rental
: property? What if tomorrow, the mortgage deduction for investment property
: is eliminated or qualification of rental property loan is changed? (In CA,
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 4 hot money will go after tangible assets especially when the cancer grows
into the currency market and you have brokers like MF go under. Smart money
wont have confidence in any paper assets.
general stock market will receive its share of liquidity initially
sooner rather than later, they will find their profit margin squeezed
badly by the rising commodity prices.
Just imagine when crude oil goes above $200, how the business will be
running.
of course, stocks will be better than cash in that senario.
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: Even without a recovery of real economy,the stock market can hold high, if
: Bernanke injects endless amount of money into the market.
: Since real state market is uncertain, while the stock market can
: be pushed high and becomes rewarding as it has shown since August,
: the hot money will chase into the stock market.
:
: can
: the
| d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 5 你现在看到的事情， ７０年代预演过一次，
只不过程度和烈度都比这次差很多。
里根还有利用国际债解决问题的空间， 现在的美国？ 看不到什么希望。
may be, it's really the end day of Rome
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: buy equity+gold in dip 是大本任期内的投资主旋律。
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