f****r
发帖数: 5118 | 1 只是我的感觉
奥巴马2012就要大选了
大选的关键就是经济，现在经济一直不振，主要原因是油价太高，把所有货物的成本都
提高了。所以奥8就一直想把油价搞下来，上个月他还成立了一个小组，专门调查油价
高企的原因，我就有感觉油价要到顶了，而且油价高，等于送钱给俄罗斯普京，而且
2012年，俄罗斯也要大选
拉登也不知道是不是一直在CIA的监视下居住？美国早就可以干掉他，只不过想找个最
好机会干掉而已，这次拉登就没有抵抗，没有武器，连护卫都没有，就如一个平民一般
被枪决了，其实美国根本就不想活捉，活捉审判特别麻烦，不如糊里糊涂弄死最好。
反正阿富汗，伊拉克都要撤兵了，拉登也没有太多用途，油价都是被反恐搞高的，这下
就用拉登把油价搞下来，还有1年多时间，油价下跌，美元高涨，经济恢复，然后阿富汗伊拉克撤兵结束，这几件事情一做完，连选连任，基本上没有问题了
2012年，好过的国家是美国和中国，因为油价跌了，俄罗斯可能要出现混乱，所有的
Budget都是在高油价基础上制定的，这下要赤字了，普京当总统充满了变局。 | r******y
发帖数: 12263 | | t****g
发帖数: 3434 | | p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 4 fundamentally, it might not be for oil price only.
it might be for the overall US$ trend.
US$ needs to be strong every a few yrs (7~8 or 10). open a chart of US$,
you might see the pattern.
termination of bin la den is a symbol that 10 yrs war is over, and US will
focus on internal economy growth. US$ cannot go straight down. The US
cannot afford that. It reverses here!
of coz, the by-product is Obama winning his 2nd shift. | T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 5 u sounds like US can manipulate the whole market, then why its economy went
to recession?
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: fundamentally, it might not be for oil price only.
: it might be for the overall US$ trend.
: US$ needs to be strong every a few yrs (7~8 or 10). open a chart of US$,
: you might see the pattern.
: termination of bin la den is a symbol that 10 yrs war is over, and US will
: focus on internal economy growth. US$ cannot go straight down. The US
: cannot afford that. It reverses here!
: of coz, the by-product is Obama winning his 2nd shift.
| p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 6 i don't 100% believe what i posted, that's for sure.
however, the world evolves with something determined by the nature, and the
others determined by the people.
US's recession is a natural thing, cannot avoid. No country can avoid, like
China in current housing bubble.
but at current stage, it is very easy to "manipulate" these things. sorry,
cannot use chinese, but the situation is ready! US only needs a little push
to turn the situation to its favor.
what "situation" then?
the situation is simple:
1. the assumption: the world has much much more CASH than commodity (food,
oil, all kinds of resources, materials, and real estate).
2. most of CASH is owned by some huge funds, and most of funds are owned by
U.S, Europe, and Japan (sorted by its size). and US funds should be
exceedingly larger than the following two.
no, no chinese funds here. we all know.
3. these CASH chase profit everyday. they flow around the earth for the
profitable business. For the passing years, China housing is the biggest
sucker of it. Who disagree?
4. these CASH needs to pay-off. that is, the funds need to realise the
profit earned in China housing. the funds therefore MUST sell china housing
ONE DAY to get their money back in form of US$. Right? this MUST happen,
maybe not today, but MUST be some day.
5. when this happen, China collapse. and these CASH try to convert to US$ (
US$ will rise), and these CASH will go back to US first, and look again for
next profitable business(maybe US housing or US stock?).
6. right now, when oil, gold, and commodity is at peak, when China housing
is at peak. there is no more CASH to push them higher, i guess. Or, would
you invest ur CASH on China housing further?
A little sell pressure will lead to avalanch of China housing. Then oil
collapse too. These two things, benefits US for sure, hurts China and
Russia badly.
I don't see a reason why US will not do it at such an easy cost.
Please share your thoughts.
went
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: u sounds like US can manipulate the whole market, then why its economy went
: to recession?
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 7 LOL, 你不知道 recession 本身也是个大阴谋吗？
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: u sounds like US can manipulate the whole market, then why its economy went
: to recession?
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 All your argument is based on one assumption --- Chinese housing
market is pushed up by international liquidity.
It is this very basic assumption that I completely disagree.
I am not saying the housing market in big cities in China is
fair valued, however, the outside liquidity is not a significant
contribution at all.
and the
avoid, like
sorry,
little push
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: i don't 100% believe what i posted, that's for sure.
: however, the world evolves with something determined by the nature, and the
: others determined by the people.
: US's recession is a natural thing, cannot avoid. No country can avoid, like
: China in current housing bubble.
: but at current stage, it is very easy to "manipulate" these things. sorry,
: cannot use chinese, but the situation is ready! US only needs a little push
: to turn the situation to its favor.
: what "situation" then?
: the situation is simple:
| h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 9 simply, why nyc housing not going down? why bj?
the
like
,
push
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: i don't 100% believe what i posted, that's for sure.
: however, the world evolves with something determined by the nature, and the
: others determined by the people.
: US's recession is a natural thing, cannot avoid. No country can avoid, like
: China in current housing bubble.
: but at current stage, it is very easy to "manipulate" these things. sorry,
: cannot use chinese, but the situation is ready! US only needs a little push
: to turn the situation to its favor.
: what "situation" then?
: the situation is simple:
| p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 10 yeah, i think that you are right
i didn't really mean that the whole china housing is driven by intel'
capital from the beginning.
from the beginning, it was by the nature: chinese try to find an investment
tool to avoid inflation, maybe......
currently, the key is this is a very good/easy point for US to manipulate
China as well as the rest of the world.
my main doubt is that if US choose to hit China, there'll be some impact to
US itself too (much lighter compared to loss of China). In other words, I
still feel that US is not ready for US$ to rise in this Summer.
what do you say?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: All your argument is based on one assumption --- Chinese housing
: market is pushed up by international liquidity.
: It is this very basic assumption that I completely disagree.
: I am not saying the housing market in big cities in China is
: fair valued, however, the outside liquidity is not a significant
: contribution at all.
:
: and the
: avoid, like
: sorry,
| | | T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 11 嘿嘿，都是阴毛
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: LOL, 你不知道 recession 本身也是个大阴谋吗？
| T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 12 Are us funds owned by us government? chinese government can't supress the
chi
nese housing price, how could us government do it?
US/european funds work on their own, and many bet against the US government.
They are mostly market driven, not politically driven.
the
like
,
push
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: i don't 100% believe what i posted, that's for sure.
: however, the world evolves with something determined by the nature, and the
: others determined by the people.
: US's recession is a natural thing, cannot avoid. No country can avoid, like
: China in current housing bubble.
: but at current stage, it is very easy to "manipulate" these things. sorry,
: cannot use chinese, but the situation is ready! US only needs a little push
: to turn the situation to its favor.
: what "situation" then?
: the situation is simple:
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 I say US dollar is a done deal. US government will be the last
one in this world who wants a strong dollar. If you are the big
debtor who owes huge amount of money to everybody else, not only
other governments but also your own citizens, what can you do?
Of course, there will always be some up and down along the road,
but the direction will not change, not in 10 years at least.
If everybody goes down altogether, who will be hit the worst?
I don't think it will be the debt holder whose economy is mostly
based on manufacturing. I would rather bet it will be the debtor
whose economy is mostly based on services and finance.
investment
manipulate
impact to
words, I
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: yeah, i think that you are right
: i didn't really mean that the whole china housing is driven by intel'
: capital from the beginning.
: from the beginning, it was by the nature: chinese try to find an investment
: tool to avoid inflation, maybe......
: currently, the key is this is a very good/easy point for US to manipulate
: China as well as the rest of the world.
: my main doubt is that if US choose to hit China, there'll be some impact to
: US itself too (much lighter compared to loss of China). In other words, I
: still feel that US is not ready for US$ to rise in this Summer.
| T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 14 both chinese and US government are important player in the global economy, b
ut there are many other players. No one of them can decide or manipulate the
whole market. It is eventually decided by the market.
investment
to
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: yeah, i think that you are right
: i didn't really mean that the whole china housing is driven by intel'
: capital from the beginning.
: from the beginning, it was by the nature: chinese try to find an investment
: tool to avoid inflation, maybe......
: currently, the key is this is a very good/easy point for US to manipulate
: China as well as the rest of the world.
: my main doubt is that if US choose to hit China, there'll be some impact to
: US itself too (much lighter compared to loss of China). In other words, I
: still feel that US is not ready for US$ to rise in this Summer.
| h****h
发帖数: 1168 | 15 but us dollar is the only one to be used to buy commodity.
compare two country us and china, who treat its people
good and who let its people suffer? i'd bet china will be
the one doing worst to its people, so printing and printing
will collect all the fortune from its people.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I say US dollar is a done deal. US government will be the last
: one in this world who wants a strong dollar. If you are the big
: debtor who owes huge amount of money to everybody else, not only
: other governments but also your own citizens, what can you do?
: Of course, there will always be some up and down along the road,
: but the direction will not change, not in 10 years at least.
: If everybody goes down altogether, who will be hit the worst?
: I don't think it will be the debt holder whose economy is mostly
: based on manufacturing. I would rather bet it will be the debtor
: whose economy is mostly based on services and finance.
| p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 16 your concept is sort of mis-placed.
"decided by the market", right? what is market? market is the "more people".
you said "no one of them can decide or manipulate the whole market"
i really don't think so.
or let's say it this way. the market is always a binary problem: Up or Down.
if US funds' financial interests meet perfectly with US government's
political needs, why would they NOT buy(or sell) something together?
One fundamental understanding to "the market" that most ppl don't believe is
this:
Every market in this world, has a master (or a few) behind it. The master(s
) can manipulate the market mostly according their needs.
Even currencies (biggest market), are still manipulable by governments.
Believe this or not, is why many times you and I disagree with each other.
just for discussion, my 2 cents.
b
the
【在 T*********e 的大作中提到】
: both chinese and US government are important player in the global economy, b
: ut there are many other players. No one of them can decide or manipulate the
: whole market. It is eventually decided by the market.
:
: investment
: to
| p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 17 currently, yes, US doesn't want a strong dollar due to its internal economy.
however, we cannot be sure US won't raise interest (or stop QEn) just to
serve its internal economy.
if US leaders always ranks internal economy #1 thing, there wouldn't be 911
or Iraq war, or subprime.
your reasoning is all right. however, you did skip a few facts:
1. US government for sure will be the last one who want a collapsed dollar
2. Dollar is the world currency, and most ppl wants it strong and needs it.
when ppl all run to it, it will rise.
US$ is far from a done deal. of coz, our definition of "far" may be
different.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I say US dollar is a done deal. US government will be the last
: one in this world who wants a strong dollar. If you are the big
: debtor who owes huge amount of money to everybody else, not only
: other governments but also your own citizens, what can you do?
: Of course, there will always be some up and down along the road,
: but the direction will not change, not in 10 years at least.
: If everybody goes down altogether, who will be hit the worst?
: I don't think it will be the debt holder whose economy is mostly
: based on manufacturing. I would rather bet it will be the debtor
: whose economy is mostly based on services and finance.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 18 The fact that US dollar is the only currency to be used to
buy commodities right now doesn't grant it any warrant that
it won't be depreciated. And this fact is changing slowly
but decisively if you have seen what happened on international
trade settlements in the last few years.
Speaking who is treating worse to its people --- China is
rapidly building the largest mid-class in this world, while
in US here the mid-class has been diminishing since 1990s,
exactly by what you said: printing and printing.
【在 h****h 的大作中提到】
: but us dollar is the only one to be used to buy commodity.
: compare two country us and china, who treat its people
: good and who let its people suffer? i'd bet china will be
: the one doing worst to its people, so printing and printing
: will collect all the fortune from its people.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 19 For USD, I can say this: Everybody want it strong, except US
government. But if Federal Reserve wants it weak, nobody can
stop them making it weak.
British Pound used to be the world currency, and GBP/USD used
to be 4:1 many years ago if I remember correctly. But so what?
The so-called world currency can be changed, and it's changing
right now.
economy.
to
be 911
dollar
needs it.
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: currently, yes, US doesn't want a strong dollar due to its internal economy.
: however, we cannot be sure US won't raise interest (or stop QEn) just to
: serve its internal economy.
: if US leaders always ranks internal economy #1 thing, there wouldn't be 911
: or Iraq war, or subprime.
: your reasoning is all right. however, you did skip a few facts:
: 1. US government for sure will be the last one who want a collapsed dollar
: 2. Dollar is the world currency, and most ppl wants it strong and needs it.
: when ppl all run to it, it will rise.
: US$ is far from a done deal. of coz, our definition of "far" may be
|
|
