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S*******t
发帖数: 97 | 1 请问有没有这方面的tutorial？
现在的银行存款利率这么低，是不是应该尽早吧mortgage pay完？用月收入1/3来pay是
不是比较make sense?
5年的arm如何呢？
谢谢指教。 | p*****o
发帖数: 1285 | 2 利率低难道不应该贷的长一些？
【在 S*******t 的大作中提到】
: 请问有没有这方面的tutorial？
: 现在的银行存款利率这么低，是不是应该尽早吧mortgage pay完？用月收入1/3来pay是
: 不是比较make sense?
: 5年的arm如何呢？
: 谢谢指教。
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 3 30 years for sure. There is really no point to pay off your
mortgage early. Lock in current rate, do not use ARM.
【在 S*******t 的大作中提到】
: 请问有没有这方面的tutorial？
: 现在的银行存款利率这么低，是不是应该尽早吧mortgage pay完？用月收入1/3来pay是
: 不是比较make sense?
: 5年的arm如何呢？
: 谢谢指教。
| a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 4 en I locked 4.5% last year , was laughed at loudly by others when it dropped
further to 4.25%
What could we say ? impossible to pin down the exact bottom
No idea if it will fall again
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 30 years for sure. There is really no point to pay off your
: mortgage early. Lock in current rate, do not use ARM.
| t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 5 for sure? even if people plan to move within 5 years?
pay是
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 30 years for sure. There is really no point to pay off your
: mortgage early. Lock in current rate, do not use ARM.
| l******u
发帖数: 3169 | 6 30-yr fix
【在 S*******t 的大作中提到】
: 请问有没有这方面的tutorial？
: 现在的银行存款利率这么低，是不是应该尽早吧mortgage pay完？用月收入1/3来pay是
: 不是比较make sense?
: 5年的arm如何呢？
: 谢谢指教。
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 7 Warren Buffett used to say "If you're smart, you don't need debt. If
you're dumb, it's poisonous". I don't know too much about the former
statement, but the latter is definitely true for the under-water
homeowners who used their homes as ATM machines in the past few years.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 30 years for sure. There is really no point to pay off your
: mortgage early. Lock in current rate, do not use ARM.
| f**********8
发帖数: 2276 | | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 I didn't ask LZ to use his/her home as ATM machine. It's not
possible in the near future anyway. Please do not go to
extremes.
Chinese people knows how to keep debt under control. Their
problem is they are too uncomfortable with debt.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Warren Buffett used to say "If you're smart, you don't need debt. If
: you're dumb, it's poisonous". I don't know too much about the former
: statement, but the latter is definitely true for the under-water
: homeowners who used their homes as ATM machines in the past few years.
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 10 You are too optimistic for "Chinese people". Although most don't use the
money for consumption, they are more likely than a normal person to:
a. Put into a negative real-return saving account.
b. Gamble into the stock market or any other "investment" vehicle.
At the end of the day, paying off loan gives you a guaranteed rate of return
at 4-5% (before tax, since mortgage interest has tax advantage which varies
by individual). You shouldn't be so sure that you can definitely beat it.
According to Barclays Capital's recent "Equity Gilt Study", they think given
the demographic changes in the US, the norminal return from the stock
market is going to be 5% if GDP can grow at 3% (concensus forecast). If
average GDP slows to 2%, that's only 4% return with much more risks.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I didn't ask LZ to use his/her home as ATM machine. It's not
: possible in the near future anyway. Please do not go to
: extremes.
: Chinese people knows how to keep debt under control. Their
: problem is they are too uncomfortable with debt.
| | | s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 Let's put tax advantage aside, although that's definitely something
that should be taken into consideration. I guess the rate of return
or GDP you were talking about is the real return which has the
inflation removed. However, we are very likely on the edge of some
serious inflation or depreciation of US dollar. I think if that's
case, you really should spend if not invest, rather than reduce
the debt.
return
varies
given
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: You are too optimistic for "Chinese people". Although most don't use the
: money for consumption, they are more likely than a normal person to:
: a. Put into a negative real-return saving account.
: b. Gamble into the stock market or any other "investment" vehicle.
: At the end of the day, paying off loan gives you a guaranteed rate of return
: at 4-5% (before tax, since mortgage interest has tax advantage which varies
: by individual). You shouldn't be so sure that you can definitely beat it.
: According to Barclays Capital's recent "Equity Gilt Study", they think given
: the demographic changes in the US, the norminal return from the stock
: market is going to be 5% if GDP can grow at 3% (concensus forecast). If
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 12 And invest in China, 15 years later it may be 1:1 and think
how easy to pay off the loan at that time.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Let's put tax advantage aside, although that's definitely something
: that should be taken into consideration. I guess the rate of return
: or GDP you were talking about is the real return which has the
: inflation removed. However, we are very likely on the edge of some
: serious inflation or depreciation of US dollar. I think if that's
: case, you really should spend if not invest, rather than reduce
: the debt.
:
: return
: varies
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 13 Think outside the box, please.
I clearly stated that it says 5% is the nominal return, not real return.
Inflation is 2% based on its projection.
Here is the link: http://www.barcap.com/egs, ￡100 for a copy.
http://www.barcap.com/Client+offering/Research/Equity+Gilt+Stud
lt+Study+-+Synopsis
I know it is too hard for you to believe a 2% inflation rate. But please
take it as a possibility given it's from a reputable source.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Let's put tax advantage aside, although that's definitely something
: that should be taken into consideration. I guess the rate of return
: or GDP you were talking about is the real return which has the
: inflation removed. However, we are very likely on the edge of some
: serious inflation or depreciation of US dollar. I think if that's
: case, you really should spend if not invest, rather than reduce
: the debt.
:
: return
: varies
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 14 hehe, you wish.
Equity Gilt Study does favor emerging markets though. They think EM
equities will return more than 10% per year until 2015.
Also, The International Energy Agency estimates by 2015, Chinese oil
demand will have increased 40% from 2009 levels. Equity Gilt Study says
that for Chinese and India per capita oil consumption to reach the level
of the US, oil reserves would last for just 18 years, even if using
"generous estimates" of total reserves, including Canadian oil sands,
heavy oil in Venezuela and upward revisions to middle east reserves.
We will be running out of oil in 18 years, and you still think that
there is bright future for low productivity and energy-inefficient
country like China?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/70/Gdp-en
efficiency.jpg/800px-Gdp-energy-efficiency.jpg
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: And invest in China, 15 years later it may be 1:1 and think
: how easy to pay off the loan at that time.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 15 Okay, my bad. I didn't read your last post very carefully. You did
say 'nominal'.
I don't believe the 2% inflation rate projected by Barclay, but I do
agree it is a possibility. (If you really ask, I say I believe Jim
Rogers who is more reputable in my mind than any bank.) Anyway, I
think you might want to consider that, given what Fed is doing, the
inflation risk is just as high as the stock market risk. In other
words, paying off your debt doesn't give you risk-free return in
real-term.
return.
http://www.barcap.com/Client+offering/Research/Equity+Gilt+Stud
Gi
please
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Think outside the box, please.
: I clearly stated that it says 5% is the nominal return, not real return.
: Inflation is 2% based on its projection.
: Here is the link: http://www.barcap.com/egs, ￡100 for a copy.
: http://www.barcap.com/Client+offering/Research/Equity+Gilt+Stud
: lt+Study+-+Synopsis
: I know it is too hard for you to believe a 2% inflation rate. But please
: take it as a possibility given it's from a reputable source.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 Talking about oil, I think Americans will be in trouble sooner than
Chinese.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: hehe, you wish.
: Equity Gilt Study does favor emerging markets though. They think EM
: equities will return more than 10% per year until 2015.
: Also, The International Energy Agency estimates by 2015, Chinese oil
: demand will have increased 40% from 2009 levels. Equity Gilt Study says
: that for Chinese and India per capita oil consumption to reach the level
: of the US, oil reserves would last for just 18 years, even if using
: "generous estimates" of total reserves, including Canadian oil sands,
: heavy oil in Venezuela and upward revisions to middle east reserves.
: We will be running out of oil in 18 years, and you still think that
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 17 some people still believe in the CPI-based inflation
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Okay, my bad. I didn't read your last post very carefully. You did
: say 'nominal'.
: I don't believe the 2% inflation rate projected by Barclay, but I do
: agree it is a possibility. (If you really ask, I say I believe Jim
: Rogers who is more reputable in my mind than any bank.) Anyway, I
: think you might want to consider that, given what Fed is doing, the
: inflation risk is just as high as the stock market risk. In other
: words, paying off your debt doesn't give you risk-free return in
: real-term.
:
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 18 I agree with all that. I am just pointing out that there are other
theories (e.g. deflation, where Japan tried hard but didn't escape) and
other possibilities that maximizing borrowing may not be the optimal
investment strategy.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Okay, my bad. I didn't read your last post very carefully. You did
: say 'nominal'.
: I don't believe the 2% inflation rate projected by Barclay, but I do
: agree it is a possibility. (If you really ask, I say I believe Jim
: Rogers who is more reputable in my mind than any bank.) Anyway, I
: think you might want to consider that, given what Fed is doing, the
: inflation risk is just as high as the stock market risk. In other
: words, paying off your debt doesn't give you risk-free return in
: real-term.
:
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 19 WSJ has a very good article about inflation sometime ago. Quote:
"Or consider the case of Apple computers. We all know Macs are expensive.
And we know Apple doesn't discount. The cheapest Mac laptop today costs
$999. A few years ago, it also cost $999. So the price is the same, right?
Ha. Not according Uncle Sam. Using a piece of chicanery called "hedonics,"
Uncle Sam calls this a price cut. His reasoning? You're getting more for
the money. Today's $999 Mac is lighter, fancier and faster than last
year's $999 Mac. So the government calculates that the "real" price has
actually fallen.
How's that work in the real world? Try it. Go into your local Apple store
and ask for 50% off thanks to hedonics."
Although the example was bad, but you get the idea.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: some people still believe in the CPI-based inflation
| k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 20 for the 20%+ non-working people (dont quote me the unemployment rate)
and for those people who got very little pay increase
I think they need to worry more about food, cloth (see cotton price)
and energy cost rather than the price of Mac and other unessential
electronics
CPI is just a joke, a medicine to let people passively accept the fact
that they have been fucked badly.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: WSJ has a very good article about inflation sometime ago. Quote:
: "Or consider the case of Apple computers. We all know Macs are expensive.
: And we know Apple doesn't discount. The cheapest Mac laptop today costs
: $999. A few years ago, it also cost $999. So the price is the same, right?
: Ha. Not according Uncle Sam. Using a piece of chicanery called "hedonics,"
: Uncle Sam calls this a price cut. His reasoning? You're getting more for
: the money. Today's $999 Mac is lighter, fancier and faster than last
: year's $999 Mac. So the government calculates that the "real" price has
: actually fallen.
: How's that work in the real world? Try it. Go into your local Apple store
| | | g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 21 American get into trouble faster than Chinese. Think about it,
most Chinese cities at least have usable public transportation.
If oil price goes rocket high, the majority of us still have
to rely on a car, maybe carpool, that's about it.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: hehe, you wish.
: Equity Gilt Study does favor emerging markets though. They think EM
: equities will return more than 10% per year until 2015.
: Also, The International Energy Agency estimates by 2015, Chinese oil
: demand will have increased 40% from 2009 levels. Equity Gilt Study says
: that for Chinese and India per capita oil consumption to reach the level
: of the US, oil reserves would last for just 18 years, even if using
: "generous estimates" of total reserves, including Canadian oil sands,
: heavy oil in Venezuela and upward revisions to middle east reserves.
: We will be running out of oil in 18 years, and you still think that
| f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 22 因人而异，没有绝对的。
俺自己就一直是ARM，觉得也挺好的，也没准备在这个房子住半辈子，去年底又refi一
把，2.75%，管到2015年。每个月相对最初30 fix时省出来的钱，俺也全付到本金里面
去了。
用30 fix主要是图安心，等于买了个利率保险，但是你用得上这个保险不，是个问题。
15 fix是界乎两者中的一个平衡。
【在 S*******t 的大作中提到】
: 请问有没有这方面的tutorial？
: 现在的银行存款利率这么低，是不是应该尽早吧mortgage pay完？用月收入1/3来pay是
: 不是比较make sense?
: 5年的arm如何呢？
: 谢谢指教。
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 23 Actually I don't see a problem with this reasoning.
You get much better user experience, efficiency and a better life with that
$999, that certainly means a reduction of cost of living in that category.
Before I see a better argument against the official CPI, I don't see a
reason to trash it.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: WSJ has a very good article about inflation sometime ago. Quote:
: "Or consider the case of Apple computers. We all know Macs are expensive.
: And we know Apple doesn't discount. The cheapest Mac laptop today costs
: $999. A few years ago, it also cost $999. So the price is the same, right?
: Ha. Not according Uncle Sam. Using a piece of chicanery called "hedonics,"
: Uncle Sam calls this a price cut. His reasoning? You're getting more for
: the money. Today's $999 Mac is lighter, fancier and faster than last
: year's $999 Mac. So the government calculates that the "real" price has
: actually fallen.
: How's that work in the real world? Try it. Go into your local Apple store
| d****w
发帖数: 1367 | 24 赞成不需要多还钱，放到股票里，收益也高得多。
我就用5 arm，5年以后还不知道在那个城市呢 | m********d
发帖数: 400 | 25 这个比较中肯,我觉得因人而异
【在 f*****g 的大作中提到】
: 因人而异，没有绝对的。
: 俺自己就一直是ARM，觉得也挺好的，也没准备在这个房子住半辈子，去年底又refi一
: 把，2.75%，管到2015年。每个月相对最初30 fix时省出来的钱，俺也全付到本金里面
: 去了。
: 用30 fix主要是图安心，等于买了个利率保险，但是你用得上这个保险不，是个问题。
: 15 fix是界乎两者中的一个平衡。
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