b*****c
发帖数: 27 | 1 最近在发现一些Junk bond的funds每年分红的收益有7-9%,而且很多年的分红都差不多
（例如MHY，HYG， HIO）。如果只求平均7-9%的长期年收益，这种Funds是否是好的选
择呢？风险在哪里？ |
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 2 最大的风险是欠债的企业DEFAULT， 特别经济变坏的情况下。 不过现在经济在
RECOVER， DEFAULT 的比率最近一年一直在下降。
所有的债券都面临汇率上升的风险。 不过 JUNK BOND 对汇率上升没有 别的BOND 那么敏感。
【在 b*****c 的大作中提到】
: 最近在发现一些Junk bond的funds每年分红的收益有7-9%,而且很多年的分红都差不多
: （例如MHY，HYG， HIO）。如果只求平均7-9%的长期年收益，这种Funds是否是好的选
: 择呢？风险在哪里？
|
b*****c
发帖数: 27 | 3 作为同时投资许多家企业的Funds，如果碰到少数不幸的企业DEFAULT应该对整体影响不
大吧。
这样看获得7-9%的长期年收益好像很容易，但是觉得too good to be true |
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 4 遇到经济萧条的时候整体的DEFAULT RATE 大幅度提高， 风险会增大。
另外过去10多年都是 BOND MARKET 难得的牛市。 你看过去 PERFOMANCE 的时候要考虑这个在内。
如果你是保守的投资者， 也可以买一些 分红股的 基金或者 ETF 比如 DVY。
【在 b*****c 的大作中提到】
: 作为同时投资许多家企业的Funds，如果碰到少数不幸的企业DEFAULT应该对整体影响不
: 大吧。
: 这样看获得7-9%的长期年收益好像很容易，但是觉得too good to be true
|
b*****c
发帖数: 27 | 5 非常感谢stocksguru的解释和建议
我自认没有做短线股票的天赋，还是保守长期投资把 ：（ |
l*******m
发帖数: 1096 | 6 以前业界认为junk bond风险比较大，但现在发现没有那样严重。而且经济危机后，很
多大公司的credit都下降，公司借贷属于高息，比如Ford。但这些大公司其实违约率
现在比较低。而且公司债比国债抗利率涨。
缺点可能是抗通胀能力不强，不过什么可以确保抗通胀呢？还有dividend在一般帐号里
要交税
好像，业界更推崇买junk bond etf, 如JNK
【在 b*****c 的大作中提到】
: 作为同时投资许多家企业的Funds，如果碰到少数不幸的企业DEFAULT应该对整体影响不
: 大吧。
: 这样看获得7-9%的长期年收益好像很容易，但是觉得too good to be true
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 7 junk bond fund or etf, 各有千秋。
我喜欢买fund,省事。 俺每个月进 $300 VWEHX
响不
【在 l*******m 的大作中提到】
: 以前业界认为junk bond风险比较大，但现在发现没有那样严重。而且经济危机后，很
: 多大公司的credit都下降，公司借贷属于高息，比如Ford。但这些大公司其实违约率
: 现在比较低。而且公司债比国债抗利率涨。
: 缺点可能是抗通胀能力不强，不过什么可以确保抗通胀呢？还有dividend在一般帐号里
: 要交税
: 好像，业界更推崇买junk bond etf, 如JNK
|
D*******a
发帖数: 3688 | 8 I think you mean interest rate risk not exchange rate risk.
那么敏感。
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 遇到经济萧条的时候整体的DEFAULT RATE 大幅度提高， 风险会增大。
: 另外过去10多年都是 BOND MARKET 难得的牛市。 你看过去 PERFOMANCE 的时候要考虑这个在内。
: 如果你是保守的投资者， 也可以买一些 分红股的 基金或者 ETF 比如 DVY。
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 9 Thanks for correcting me. Yes, I was referring to the interest rates.
【在 D*******a 的大作中提到】
: I think you mean interest rate risk not exchange rate risk.
:
: 那么敏感。
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 10 why junk bond MF NAV is not sensitive to interest rate hike?
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for correcting me. Yes, I was referring to the interest rates.
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 The only reason junk bond fund didn't lose 70% of their value is the
Fed Reserve pumped everything up. In a sense, Fed moved most of the
risk in junk bonds into us treasury bonds by essentially binding them
together. Then Fed moved most of the risk in treasury bonds into US
dollar by printing money.
That's why you see the return of junk bond funds was so good. And that
eventually will turn everything into a disaster.
【在 l*******m 的大作中提到】
: 以前业界认为junk bond风险比较大，但现在发现没有那样严重。而且经济危机后，很
: 多大公司的credit都下降，公司借贷属于高息，比如Ford。但这些大公司其实违约率
: 现在比较低。而且公司债比国债抗利率涨。
: 缺点可能是抗通胀能力不强，不过什么可以确保抗通胀呢？还有dividend在一般帐号里
: 要交税
: 好像，业界更推崇买junk bond etf, 如JNK
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 12 how junk bond becomes a diaster?
inflation and interest rate get higher than junk bond yield?
or many company default?
，很
号里
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: The only reason junk bond fund didn't lose 70% of their value is the
: Fed Reserve pumped everything up. In a sense, Fed moved most of the
: risk in junk bonds into us treasury bonds by essentially binding them
: together. Then Fed moved most of the risk in treasury bonds into US
: dollar by printing money.
: That's why you see the return of junk bond funds was so good. And that
: eventually will turn everything into a disaster.
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 13 junk bond risk comes from fluctuation in a) interest rate and b) credit-
spread (reflecting default risk).
Both a) and b) are mean-reverting, and I think they are now much closer to
their lows than median, thanks go US fed QE efforts.
The reported historical performance reflects the gains in the past decades
from a) declining interest rate and b) narrowing credit spread. going
forwards could be a different story depending on how the eoncomy & monetary
policy play out.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: how junk bond becomes a diaster?
: inflation and interest rate get higher than junk bond yield?
: or many company default?
:
: ，很
: 号里
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 14 In this case, what percent of my portfolio should be in junk bond?
is 4% too high or too low?
thanks!
by the way, my understanding is:
with the recovering economy, the default risk is getting lower. Am I right?
monetary
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: junk bond risk comes from fluctuation in a) interest rate and b) credit-
: spread (reflecting default risk).
: Both a) and b) are mean-reverting, and I think they are now much closer to
: their lows than median, thanks go US fed QE efforts.
: The reported historical performance reflects the gains in the past decades
: from a) declining interest rate and b) narrowing credit spread. going
: forwards could be a different story depending on how the eoncomy & monetary
: policy play out.
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 15 I think your understanding is right. The default rate has been declining.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: In this case, what percent of my portfolio should be in junk bond?
: is 4% too high or too low?
: thanks!
: by the way, my understanding is:
: with the recovering economy, the default risk is getting lower. Am I right?
:
: monetary
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 16 thanks. What do you think on my 1st question? Is 4% too low or too high?
right?
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: I think your understanding is right. The default rate has been declining.
:
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 17 我个人认为， 那些 FINANCIAL ADVISOR 的话不可全听， 大部分ADVISOR 也就只 知道人云亦云。 这些人最早反对你放 EMERGING MARKET， 后来说最多放5%， 现在这个MARKET热起来了， 不少ADVISOR 又开始建议至少30% INTERNATIONAL 投资了。
我的BOND HOLDING 最近跌的满厉害的， TOTAL BOND MARKET 的指数ETF 最近大概跌了7%。 一旦有通货膨胀预期， 这个债券跌得不比股票基金温柔。
我前两个月已经陆续抛出了绝大部分全部长期债券基金，今天抛出大部分中期债券基金。 剩下的债券差不多就是少量短期债券和 JUNK BOND了。 我打算增加一点 JUNK BOND 的HOLDING。不到FED 加息我不打算再增加长期债券和中期债券了。我不怎么 CARE 我持有的到底是债券还是什么。 我只 看一个基金过去10年，15年起伏的大小。我打算把35%的钱投到起伏比较小的ASSET CLASS 里面去。
我现在在物色一些 BOND 的替代物， 比如 前几天这个版面上有人说的REWARD CHECKING ACCOUNT， 大概有4%以上年利息。 这个优点是绝对安全。 但缺点是一般只允许最多存25K什么的。可能可以不同地方多开两个帐号， 不过还是麻烦管理的。我另外寻找的替代品是 低风险的 MERGER ARBITRAGE FUND。现在的大公司手头一把现金， 2011年 M&A 活动肯定会增加。而 很多做 M&A 的FUND 今年获利 5%以上， 2008年也就只跌了 不到3%。
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: thanks. What do you think on my 1st question? Is 4% too low or too high?
:
: right?
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 18 1. you are right, long or intermediate bonds MF should be avoid now. And
most financial advisors are also saying that.
2. the bond MF/EFT's NAV may drop say, 7%, but it also pays dividend (yield)
, so bond is still less variable than stock.
3. to replace bond MF; I am using conservative balanced funds (e.g. Vanguard
Wellington or Wellesley Income).
跌了7%。 一旦有通货膨胀预期， 这个债券跌得不比股票基金温柔。
债券差不多就是少量短期债券和 JUNK BOND了。 我打算增加一点 JUNK BOND 的
HOLDING。不到FED 加息我不打算再增加长期债券和中期债券了。
道人云亦云。 这些人最早反对你放 EMERGING MARKET， 后来说最多放5%， 现在这个
MARKET热起来了， 不少ADVISOR 又开始建议至少30% INTERNATIONAL 投资了。
CHECKING ACCOUNT， 大概有4%以上年利息。 这个优点是绝对安全。 但缺点是一般只
允许最多存25K什么的。另外的替代品是 低风险的 MERGER ARBITRAGE FUND。
high?
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 我个人认为， 那些 FINANCIAL ADVISOR 的话不可全听， 大部分ADVISOR 也就只 知道人云亦云。 这些人最早反对你放 EMERGING MARKET， 后来说最多放5%， 现在这个MARKET热起来了， 不少ADVISOR 又开始建议至少30% INTERNATIONAL 投资了。
: 我的BOND HOLDING 最近跌的满厉害的， TOTAL BOND MARKET 的指数ETF 最近大概跌了7%。 一旦有通货膨胀预期， 这个债券跌得不比股票基金温柔。
: 我前两个月已经陆续抛出了绝大部分全部长期债券基金，今天抛出大部分中期债券基金。 剩下的债券差不多就是少量短期债券和 JUNK BOND了。 我打算增加一点 JUNK BOND 的HOLDING。不到FED 加息我不打算再增加长期债券和中期债券了。我不怎么 CARE 我持有的到底是债券还是什么。 我只 看一个基金过去10年，15年起伏的大小。我打算把35%的钱投到起伏比较小的ASSET CLASS 里面去。
: 我现在在物色一些 BOND 的替代物， 比如 前几天这个版面上有人说的REWARD CHECKING ACCOUNT， 大概有4%以上年利息。 这个优点是绝对安全。 但缺点是一般只允许最多存25K什么的。可能可以不同地方多开两个帐号， 不过还是麻烦管理的。我另外寻找的替代品是 低风险的 MERGER ARBITRAGE FUND。现在的大公司手头一把现金， 2011年 M&A 活动肯定会增加。而 很多做 M&A 的FUND 今年获利 5%以上， 2008年也就只跌了 不到3%。
:
|
p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 19 Do you know any bond MF which is interest rate neutral? or at least it
controls the interest rate risk to a certain extend?
I'm not comfortable with the rates environment now. QE2 may not do much in
lowering the rates if market expectation on economic recovery keeps going
higher. And I don't see low inflation in the next two years either. Both
factors go against bond market. Junk bonds may not escape the trend either.
btw: how do you view REITs market? I think REIT is affected by the same
factor as bonds: IR, inflation and default but since REITs is more equity
like (their revenues increase when rents increase and rents go up when
economy recovers). By combining these two, I'm not sure what's the prospect
for REITs now.
yield)
Vanguard
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: 1. you are right, long or intermediate bonds MF should be avoid now. And
: most financial advisors are also saying that.
: 2. the bond MF/EFT's NAV may drop say, 7%, but it also pays dividend (yield)
: , so bond is still less variable than stock.
: 3. to replace bond MF; I am using conservative balanced funds (e.g. Vanguard
: Wellington or Wellesley Income).
:
: 跌了7%。 一旦有通货膨胀预期， 这个债券跌得不比股票基金温柔。
: 债券差不多就是少量短期债券和 JUNK BOND了。 我打算增加一点 JUNK BOND 的
: HOLDING。不到FED 加息我不打算再增加长期债券和中期债券了。
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 20 一般来说 HIGH YIELD BOND， 或者说JUNK BOND 对利率升高没那么敏感。 因为它的HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
REITS 有很多种吧。 MORTGAGE REIT 在利率升高的时候应该会被伤害。 今年以来， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
我个人觉得经济复苏的话， 那些直接 拥有 HARD ASSET 的 REIT 可以 HEDGE
INFLATION。 商业地产的租金会升高， 地产的空置率会下降。
.
prospect
【在 p*****y 的大作中提到】
: Do you know any bond MF which is interest rate neutral? or at least it
: controls the interest rate risk to a certain extend?
: I'm not comfortable with the rates environment now. QE2 may not do much in
: lowering the rates if market expectation on economic recovery keeps going
: higher. And I don't see low inflation in the next two years either. Both
: factors go against bond market. Junk bonds may not escape the trend either.
: btw: how do you view REITs market? I think REIT is affected by the same
: factor as bonds: IR, inflation and default but since REITs is more equity
: like (their revenues increase when rents increase and rents go up when
: economy recovers). By combining these two, I'm not sure what's the prospect
|
|
|
t*m
发帖数: 4414 | 21 well said, REIT hedge inflation. you could invet 5% of your portfolio
HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时
DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也
开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
in
going
either
equity
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 一般来说 HIGH YIELD BOND， 或者说JUNK BOND 对利率升高没那么敏感。 因为它的HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
: REITS 有很多种吧。 MORTGAGE REIT 在利率升高的时候应该会被伤害。 今年以来， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
: 我个人觉得经济复苏的话， 那些直接 拥有 HARD ASSET 的 REIT 可以 HEDGE
: INFLATION。 商业地产的租金会升高， 地产的空置率会下降。
:
: .
: prospect
|
p*******f
发帖数: 530 | 22 Good point. Any recommendation on HARD ASSET REIT? I have been following
NLY but it does not have hard asset.
HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时
DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也
开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 一般来说 HIGH YIELD BOND， 或者说JUNK BOND 对利率升高没那么敏感。 因为它的HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
: REITS 有很多种吧。 MORTGAGE REIT 在利率升高的时候应该会被伤害。 今年以来， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
: 我个人觉得经济复苏的话， 那些直接 拥有 HARD ASSET 的 REIT 可以 HEDGE
: INFLATION。 商业地产的租金会升高， 地产的空置率会下降。
:
: .
: prospect
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 23 OFFICE REIT 里面我一直在关注 PDM， P/E在同行里面算低的， 另外每年有6%左右的
分红。
还有一个值得关注的是今年11月9号刚从 CHAPTER 11的破产保护中重组出来的GGP。 它
是全美第2大的 SHOPPING MALL OWNER，昨天刚刚宣布了恢复分红。 我觉得也许会是一
个比较好的 TURNAROUND PLAY。
我自己还没买REIT 的个股。 对我自己用 TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS 看好的行业， 我一般先买指数的ETF或者 SECTOR FUND， 再慢慢了解个股。
following
【在 p*******f 的大作中提到】
: Good point. Any recommendation on HARD ASSET REIT? I have been following
: NLY but it does not have hard asset.
:
: HIGH YIELD 提供了一定的保护。 而且利率升高一般是经济好转以后的事情， 那时
: DEFUALT 债务的企业会更少。
: ， RIET 的指数 ETF 比如 VNQ 一直跑赢大盘， 11月 QE2开始以后， REIT 的 指数也
: 开始进入调整， 大概就是市场做出的反应。
|
s********h
发帖数: 158 | 24 there are some fundamental differences btwn investing in bonds and bond
funds.
when you purchase a bond, you own its cash flows until the bond's maturity,
as well as the associated risks, such as interest, default and re-investment
risks. you need to do homework on the underlying security and you decide
whether to purchase at premium or discount, etc...
when you buy into a bond fund, you have no idea what securities it owns.
while you are still getting the payments from the bonds in the portfolio,
the manager can churn through many securities in a given month and you'll be
responsible for any capital gain. you are basically paying the manager's
ability.
for the same reason, "investing for the long term" does NOT make sense for
bond fund. you may be owning the fund for a long time, you have no say over
how long any bond can stay in the fund.
naturally, financial advisers tell people to buy and hold a fund for a long
time. not only that they are financially rewarded from taking a cut from the
commission, they don't any knowledge to recommend individual bonds.
the beauty of investing in bonds is that if you can identify an undervalued
bond, you find yourself a nirvana. unlike a stock, which can stay
undervalued longer than your patience, an undervalued bond is guaranteed to
revert back to its true value.
【在 t*m 的大作中提到】
: junk bond fund or etf, 各有千秋。
: 我喜欢买fund,省事。 俺每个月进 $300 VWEHX
:
: 响不
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 25 你的话当然很有道理。 不过我想一般人毕竟缺乏债券的专业知识，买债券基金比较省事吧。 另外好像直接买企业的债券对散户也比较麻烦啊。 需要户头比较大才可以吧。
,
investment
be
【在 s********h 的大作中提到】
: there are some fundamental differences btwn investing in bonds and bond
: funds.
: when you purchase a bond, you own its cash flows until the bond's maturity,
: as well as the associated risks, such as interest, default and re-investment
: risks. you need to do homework on the underlying security and you decide
: whether to purchase at premium or discount, etc...
: when you buy into a bond fund, you have no idea what securities it owns.
: while you are still getting the payments from the bonds in the portfolio,
: the manager can churn through many securities in a given month and you'll be
: responsible for any capital gain. you are basically paying the manager's
|
p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 26 There's no "true value" of the bond since a bond value consists not only the future cash flow, but also the forward interest rates you use to discount these cashflows, interest rate volatilities, and liquidity premium, credit risk, all have to be assumed in order to come up with the "right" price for the bond. It's not easier than guessing a stock's future earning potentials.
,
investment
be
【在 s********h 的大作中提到】
: there are some fundamental differences btwn investing in bonds and bond
: funds.
: when you purchase a bond, you own its cash flows until the bond's maturity,
: as well as the associated risks, such as interest, default and re-investment
: risks. you need to do homework on the underlying security and you decide
: whether to purchase at premium or discount, etc...
: when you buy into a bond fund, you have no idea what securities it owns.
: while you are still getting the payments from the bonds in the portfolio,
: the manager can churn through many securities in a given month and you'll be
: responsible for any capital gain. you are basically paying the manager's
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 27 what i meant was that, from an investor's perspective, if an undervalued
bond is identified and purchased, he will hold it to the maturity, at which
time, the price of the bond is bound to revert back to the par value.
for a bond trader, much like any other securities, the price of a bond
fluctuates everyday. but why should an investor be concerned with that if he
doesn't plan to sell?
the future cash flow, but also the forward interest rates you use to
discount these cashflows, interest rate volatilities, and liquidity premium,
credit risk, all have to be assumed in order to come up with the "right"
price for the bond. It's not easier than guessing a stock's future earning
potentials.
【在 p*****y 的大作中提到】
: There's no "true value" of the bond since a bond value consists not only the future cash flow, but also the forward interest rates you use to discount these cashflows, interest rate volatilities, and liquidity premium, credit risk, all have to be assumed in order to come up with the "right" price for the bond. It's not easier than guessing a stock's future earning potentials.
:
: ,
: investment
: be
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 28 maybe because of my background, i find bond easier to understand and analyze
than stock. buying bond fund or trading in and out of bonds does not seem
to make much sense to me. certainly, there are exceptional managers like the
ones at pimco whom people pay premium for.
省事吧。 另外好像直接买企业的债券对散户也比较麻烦啊。 需要户头比较大才可以吧。
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 你的话当然很有道理。 不过我想一般人毕竟缺乏债券的专业知识，买债券基金比较省事吧。 另外好像直接买企业的债券对散户也比较麻烦啊。 需要户头比较大才可以吧。
:
: ,
: investment
: be
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p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 29 if you don't consider credit risk, bond value does revert to par when
getting close to maturity. But I don't think most bond traders/retail
investors manage their portfolio in such a way that they will almost always
hold bond to maturity. Instead, they trade in and out the market. Bond
trades do so because they want to beat the market. Retail investors do so
because they need liquidity. Only if you pick out single bond to match each
of your liabilities, you can be isolated from interest rate risk but your
portfolio performance may be well below market. Insurance company may have
such low tolerance of risk but I don't think most of the retail investor
needs to be so conservative.
Interest rate risk is sort of beta in stock that you need certain exposure
to the market in order to beat market. The level of exposure will be
determined by your risk appetite. A fully hedged portfolio will always earn
risk free rate if you assume market prices bonds correctly.
which
he
premium,
【在 s********h 的大作中提到】
: what i meant was that, from an investor's perspective, if an undervalued
: bond is identified and purchased, he will hold it to the maturity, at which
: time, the price of the bond is bound to revert back to the par value.
: for a bond trader, much like any other securities, the price of a bond
: fluctuates everyday. but why should an investor be concerned with that if he
: doesn't plan to sell?
:
: the future cash flow, but also the forward interest rates you use to
: discount these cashflows, interest rate volatilities, and liquidity premium,
: credit risk, all have to be assumed in order to come up with the "right"
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s********h
发帖数: 158 | 30 i am not sure i fully understood the statement about interest rate risk
being the beta in stock. regardless, even with a background in finance, this
beta thing never really clicked with me.
while it doesn't make much sense to me, i do agree with you that there's
plenty out there who trade in/out of bonds in an attempt to beat the market.
to me, if one bought a bond which he believed was worth a higher rating at a
price for a much lower rating (take aig, ge and bp for example), that was a
good investment. the fact that bp is back to a+ and selling at premium now
should not make him feel that the original investment was no good anymore
and that he should be compelled to sell it, especially if he doesn't need
the cash for another investment. sure enough bp's 4% coupon will not beat
the market, but i'd rather focus on making good investments than trying to
the beat the market.
always
each
【在 p*****y 的大作中提到】
: if you don't consider credit risk, bond value does revert to par when
: getting close to maturity. But I don't think most bond traders/retail
: investors manage their portfolio in such a way that they will almost always
: hold bond to maturity. Instead, they trade in and out the market. Bond
: trades do so because they want to beat the market. Retail investors do so
: because they need liquidity. Only if you pick out single bond to match each
: of your liabilities, you can be isolated from interest rate risk but your
: portfolio performance may be well below market. Insurance company may have
: such low tolerance of risk but I don't think most of the retail investor
: needs to be so conservative.
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