s******d
发帖数: 323 | 1 not the fund PRPFX, but the actual portfolio proposed by Harry Browne.
It's such a simple, but unintuitive, but again excellent idea.
the allocation goes like this:
25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
25% LT treasury bond: deflation, flight to quality
25% cash: recession, expected inflation
25% stocks: prosperity
gold, LT t-bond, cash are all considered bad long term investment ideas,
but together in this portfolio they work beautifully. It will never
get you super |
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 2 I doubt it will get you any richer, let alone rich, especially for us
accumulators.
Physical gold is a good idea, I tend to agree with Jean-Marie Eveillard, who
treat gold as an insurance policy.
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: not the fund PRPFX, but the actual portfolio proposed by Harry Browne.
: It's such a simple, but unintuitive, but again excellent idea.
: the allocation goes like this:
: 25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
: 25% LT treasury bond: deflation, flight to quality
: 25% cash: recession, expected inflation
: 25% stocks: prosperity
: gold, LT t-bond, cash are all considered bad long term investment ideas,
: but together in this portfolio they work beautifully. It will never
: get you super
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 3 from 1972-2007, the portfolio returns 10.02% annually without much
volatility.
obviously the portfolio did much better than stocks in 2008.
It won't make you rich overnight, but certainly preserve your purchase power
very well.
who
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I doubt it will get you any richer, let alone rich, especially for us
: accumulators.
: Physical gold is a good idea, I tend to agree with Jean-Marie Eveillard, who
: treat gold as an insurance policy.
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 4 btw, what's the best way to buy some 1oz gold coins?
who
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I doubt it will get you any richer, let alone rich, especially for us
: accumulators.
: Physical gold is a good idea, I tend to agree with Jean-Marie Eveillard, who
: treat gold as an insurance policy.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 5 you can buy 1oz Eagle $20 coin from US Department of mint online. Search US
mint, click online shopping.
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: btw, what's the best way to buy some 1oz gold coins?
:
: who
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 6 i checked and it was discontinued. guess the government doesn't like
people to own too much gold.
US
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: you can buy 1oz Eagle $20 coin from US Department of mint online. Search US
: mint, click online shopping.
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 7 各四分之一？这就是所谓的naive diversification，呵呵 |
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 8 I thought so at first. but it's getting more amazing the more I thought
about it.
PRPFX sort of inherit the idea with the following allocation
20% gold
5% silver
10% swiss franc
15% natural resource + REIT
15% growth stocks
35% dollar, including both long term bond and short term bills
It emphasis more towards inflation protection over deflation.
yeah right, helicopter Ben knows how to get over deflation anyway..
but when it happens, e.g. second half 2008, the 4x25 portfolio
certainly did better
【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】
: 各四分之一？这就是所谓的naive diversification，呵呵
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 9 It is temporary suspended. American Buffalo coin is still available for $
1410 each. It is ugly though. Eagle is much better.
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: i checked and it was discontinued. guess the government doesn't like
: people to own too much gold.
:
: US
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 10 1410? isn't that kinda expensive since the spot price is only 1138 now.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: It is temporary suspended. American Buffalo coin is still available for $
: 1410 each. It is ugly though. Eagle is much better.
|
|
|
c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 11 金价现在这么高， 是不是买银子好点
who
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I doubt it will get you any richer, let alone rich, especially for us
: accumulators.
: Physical gold is a good idea, I tend to agree with Jean-Marie Eveillard, who
: treat gold as an insurance policy.
|
l***o
发帖数: 302 | 12 Good discussion.
25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
Can it be replaced by oil?
25% stocks: prosperity
any suggestion on what type of stocks? |
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 13
oil price is affected by too many factors, supply, demand, etc.
Plus, you can't purchase oil in physical form (at least not a lot)
a total stock market index fund is good enough.
see this link for more
http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/18/the-permanent-portfolio-allocation/
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: Good discussion.
: 25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
: Can it be replaced by oil?
: 25% stocks: prosperity
: any suggestion on what type of stocks?
|
l***o
发帖数: 302 | 14 .. Physical Gold Bullion.
storage might be an issue for me. :)
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
:
: oil price is affected by too many factors, supply, demand, etc.
: Plus, you can't purchase oil in physical form (at least not a lot)
: a total stock market index fund is good enough.
: see this link for more
: http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/18/the-permanent-portfolio-allocation/
|
k***e
发帖数: 7933 | 15 银行保险箱？
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: .. Physical Gold Bullion.
: storage might be an issue for me. :)
|
l***o
发帖数: 302 | 16 No idea how much it cost.
【在 k***e 的大作中提到】
: 银行保险箱？
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | 17 very good topic, here is a 2008 update of Harry Browne's permanent portfolio
, it beat the market again.
http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-historical-returns/
Key:
TSM – Total Stock Market Index
ST Bonds – Treasury 1-2 year Short Term Bonds
LT Bonds – Treasury 20+ year Long Term Bonds
Gold – Gold Bullion
Year TSM ST Bonds LT Bonds Gold Returns
1972 16.9 3.9 5.7 48.9 18.8
1973 -18.1 6.1 -1.1 75.6 15.6
1974 -27.2 9.1 4.4 70.5 14.2
1975 38.7 7.9 9.2 -22.7 8.3
1976 26 |
c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 18 我帮你保存就是了 :-)
金子那么重， 体积很小啊
【在 l***o 的大作中提到】
: .. Physical Gold Bullion.
: storage might be an issue for me. :)
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 19 You had a secular lowering interest rate and the longest bull market in
history over that time span.
Now you face headwind, interest rate should go up, which will hurt LT
treasury badly, and PE 10 now is not that attractive, which translate not as
good equity return long term. The gold price now is well above historical
average, inflation adjusted. OK, we could be in a secular precious metal and
commodity market right now. All things considered, two pillars of the
permanent portfolio face headwi
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: from 1972-2007, the portfolio returns 10.02% annually without much
: volatility.
: obviously the portfolio did much better than stocks in 2008.
: It won't make you rich overnight, but certainly preserve your purchase power
: very well.
:
: who
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 20 I see and actually share some of your concerns.
I'm bearish on LT bond too, but
you can't say there isn't a slight chance that what happens to Japan
could happen to US. In that case LT bond makes a lot of sense.
The beauty of the portfolio is that there is always 1 or maybe even 2
assets have gloomy forecasts, and yet it still preseve captial well.
In the meantime, it will help to overcome fear to make one fully invested,
instead of standing out there wondering or do "research" so that one
doesn
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: You had a secular lowering interest rate and the longest bull market in
: history over that time span.
: Now you face headwind, interest rate should go up, which will hurt LT
: treasury badly, and PE 10 now is not that attractive, which translate not as
: good equity return long term. The gold price now is well above historical
: average, inflation adjusted. OK, we could be in a secular precious metal and
: commodity market right now. All things considered, two pillars of the
: permanent portfolio face headwi
|
|
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 21 A quick question:
How often does it need to rebalance with this allocation?
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: not the fund PRPFX, but the actual portfolio proposed by Harry Browne.
: It's such a simple, but unintuitive, but again excellent idea.
: the allocation goes like this:
: 25% gold: economic and political turbulence, unexpected inflation
: 25% LT treasury bond: deflation, flight to quality
: 25% cash: recession, expected inflation
: 25% stocks: prosperity
: gold, LT t-bond, cash are all considered bad long term investment ideas,
: but together in this portfolio they work beautifully. It will never
: get you super
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 22 Harry Browne recommended once a year and/or one asset is +/- 5% of target
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: A quick question:
: How often does it need to rebalance with this allocation?
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 23 I think 25% cash cannot be called fully invested.
I would like to know how it compares against some 60/40 portfolio, such as Vanguard Wellionton VWELX, from total return and volatility point of view.
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: I see and actually share some of your concerns.
: I'm bearish on LT bond too, but
: you can't say there isn't a slight chance that what happens to Japan
: could happen to US. In that case LT bond makes a lot of sense.
: The beauty of the portfolio is that there is always 1 or maybe even 2
: assets have gloomy forecasts, and yet it still preseve captial well.
: In the meantime, it will help to overcome fear to make one fully invested,
: instead of standing out there wondering or do "research" so that one
: doesn
|
s******d
发帖数: 323 | 24 cash is just a form of very short term of treasury bill.
it is fixed income, why not it's not investment?
according to www.riskcog.com
4x25 portfolio compound return 9.75% from 1972 to 2009, worst year 1981, -4.
28%
VWELX compound return 10.15%, worst year 2008, -22.60%
Vanguard Wellionton VWELX, from total return and volatility point of view.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I think 25% cash cannot be called fully invested.
: I would like to know how it compares against some 60/40 portfolio, such as Vanguard Wellionton VWELX, from total return and volatility point of view.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 25 It appears to me the permanent portfolio's performance greatly influenced by
1972-1980, which was the end of Bretton Woods system, and then the energy
crisis. The gold price shot 10x in 7 years. Whether such significant events
would hit us again and have that huge impact on gold price, it is an open
question, but I am not convinced. Basically if you think such event will not
be repeated, then PP won't have such stellar performance. Of course it will
always have low volatility. So it comes down t
【在 s******d 的大作中提到】
: cash is just a form of very short term of treasury bill.
: it is fixed income, why not it's not investment?
: according to www.riskcog.com
: 4x25 portfolio compound return 9.75% from 1972 to 2009, worst year 1981, -4.
: 28%
: VWELX compound return 10.15%, worst year 2008, -22.60%
:
: Vanguard Wellionton VWELX, from total return and volatility point of view.
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | |
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 27
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】
: 应该讲这个PP本来就不是追求最大利润。
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 28 10%/year利润还不高？太贪了。别妄想了，向前看每年6%-7%就差不多了。美国经济年
增长率多少？1%-2%，前几十年年通胀平均下来大概不到3%，加在一起也就5%最多，以
往10%+的增长是不可能持续的，完全是个大泡沫。
既然你们在这里讨论PP，我也说几句。PP就多了一项金条，表现好与坏就取决于这个。
金条这东西无法定价，因为鲜有工业用途。所以任何价位都是心理价位。买金条的人脑
子很简单，实际利率低于零的时候金条就涨，高于零的时候就跌。
[http://www.visualizingeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/real-3month-interest-rate.jpg]
大家以为和通胀有关，其实不是，它跟通胀预期有关，实际上这个预期可能不实现：就
是没有通胀，如果真没有，比如日本的情况，金条就跌回来了。在这个PP里，四种情况
的分布其实是这样的：
| 负利率 | 正利率 |
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 29 所以吧，你们自己估算一下四个方格的先验概率，然后再按份额投放资金。如果假设四
个方格概率相等，那么也许应该设计成：
GLD 3/8
TLT 3/8
VT 1/4
如果有意图在经济差的时候降低名义值风险，那么就会多持现金，这样就变成原来的PP
了：
GLD 1/4
TLT 1/4
SHY 1/4
VT 1/4
如果想同时降低名义值和实际值风险，那么
GLD 1/4
TLT 1/4
SHY 1/8
TIP 1/8
VT 1/4
如果觉得GLD无实际回报不能接受，那么可以以VNQ取一部分GLD和一部分SPY，最终成为
GLD 3/16
TLT 1/4
SHY 1/8
TIP 1/8
VNQ 1/8
VT 3/16 |
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | |
|
|
a*********g
发帖数: 8087 | 31 那个permanent portfolio基金看起来还不错，本小的话可以先用着 |
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 32 prior probability
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】
: what is 先验概率?
|
k**u
发帖数: 698 | 33 这么简单的问题一般散户都看不出。。唉。。
by
events
not
will
high
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: It appears to me the permanent portfolio's performance greatly influenced by
: 1972-1980, which was the end of Bretton Woods system, and then the energy
: crisis. The gold price shot 10x in 7 years. Whether such significant events
: would hit us again and have that huge impact on gold price, it is an open
: question, but I am not convinced. Basically if you think such event will not
: be repeated, then PP won't have such stellar performance. Of course it will
: always have low volatility. So it comes down t
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 34
why not
GLD 1/3
TLT 1/3
VT 1/3
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】
: 所以吧，你们自己估算一下四个方格的先验概率，然后再按份额投放资金。如果假设四
: 个方格概率相等，那么也许应该设计成：
: GLD 3/8
: TLT 3/8
: VT 1/4
: 如果有意图在经济差的时候降低名义值风险，那么就会多持现金，这样就变成原来的PP
: 了：
: GLD 1/4
: TLT 1/4
: SHY 1/4
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 35 how does VNQ performe at +real interest rate?
wouldn't high interest rate = high morgage rate = lower housing price? pls
enlighten me. |
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 36 esides VNQ, i was thinking of using XLE (or OIH) to replace GLD/SPY, at
least partially. |
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 37 不能这么说，PP除了80年代差一点（但也没跌），过去二十年也表现不错。
PP确实是格外的平稳，把经济周期的波动都平均了，长期risk adjusted return还没见
过什么比他好的。
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】
: 这么简单的问题一般散户都看不出。。唉。。
:
: by
: events
: not
: will
: high
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 38 如果利率高于物价涨势，那么硬资产实际价值就跌。当然名义价值还可能在涨。
pls
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: how does VNQ performe at +real interest rate?
: wouldn't high interest rate = high morgage rate = lower housing price? pls
: enlighten me.
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 39 这些（包含VNQ）都有问题，因为它们主要是股市一部分，硬资产成分比较少，无法达到足够的资产分散。当然这是个人风险喜好，就像你想持多少现金一样。
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: esides VNQ, i was thinking of using XLE (or OIH) to replace GLD/SPY, at
: least partially.
|
k**u
发帖数: 698 | 40 把70年代货币重新定义的时期从sample 里面拿走的话，回报跟股指相比如何？
或者把sample 前推到19xx 年where xx 是01到70 uniform distribution
的话，跟股指比如何？用return 还是用sharpe ratio 衡量？
这种超保守方案只有在大规模通胀的时候才起做用。
所以是否adopt 这种方案，boils down to your inflation expectations.
【在 a****t 的大作中提到】
: 不能这么说，PP除了80年代差一点（但也没跌），过去二十年也表现不错。
: PP确实是格外的平稳，把经济周期的波动都平均了，长期risk adjusted return还没见
: 过什么比他好的。
|
|
|
a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 41 那个本来就不在sample里。其实只有大规模收紧的时代pp才差一点。
我说了，除了80年代表现不如一般股票债券方案，其余都很好。不是有人算过，没一个
10年时段里低于零回报，70年代起只有一年还是两年有负的年度回报，大概在-3%左右
（这个发生在80年代初）。
从1990年开始，目前pp的回报和股指基本一样，差不多6%/yr多一点，但是波动只有1/3不
到，因此和一般人用的股票债券mix方案比，回报率都是超出的，波动却差不多。pp只
不过把股市泡沫虚值抹掉了，没抹掉经济里的真实回报。从退休金投资的角度讲，这不
叫保守。如果要参与泡沫投机、短期交易、风险投资之类的活动，可以专门开个炒股的
户。
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】
: 把70年代货币重新定义的时期从sample 里面拿走的话，回报跟股指相比如何？
: 或者把sample 前推到19xx 年where xx 是01到70 uniform distribution
: 的话，跟股指比如何？用return 还是用sharpe ratio 衡量？
: 这种超保守方案只有在大规模通胀的时候才起做用。
: 所以是否adopt 这种方案，boils down to your inflation expectations.
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 42 可是没有人或机构能预期通胀，大家都是猜猜而已。不想赌的话，比PP好的我还没见过
。 |
