f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 1 理论上是有泡沫，但是看到美国因为房价跌而引起的危机，会不会人为得不让房价跌？
请大家分析一下，这个国内房价的走向。 |
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 2 如果有人有办法把房产泡沫的影响转化掉，那么美国也不会有今天，日本也不会有失去
的二十年。
没准天朝有能人,但是我不相信.
人为的让房价不跌只会对投机者推波助澜,因为如果房价不会跌,那么炒房地产没有风险了
那么问题只会越来越严重
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 理论上是有泡沫，但是看到美国因为房价跌而引起的危机，会不会人为得不让房价跌？
: 请大家分析一下，这个国内房价的走向。
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 其实我一直没看出来国内的房价有很大的泡沫,通货膨胀后工资再涨一涨应该能消化掉.
你们说国内房产有泡沫的,是根据什么呀?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 理论上是有泡沫，但是看到美国因为房价跌而引起的危机，会不会人为得不让房价跌？
: 请大家分析一下，这个国内房价的走向。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 4 空房率很高，大城市房价跟房租的比例很高，而且平均收入得20年不吃不喝才能买
栋房子。国内大量的合租(10几个人组一个三房的)就知道问题很大了。
掉.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 其实我一直没看出来国内的房价有很大的泡沫,通货膨胀后工资再涨一涨应该能消化掉.
: 你们说国内房产有泡沫的,是根据什么呀?
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 House price over rent ratio.
掉.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 其实我一直没看出来国内的房价有很大的泡沫,通货膨胀后工资再涨一涨应该能消化掉.
: 你们说国内房产有泡沫的,是根据什么呀?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 个人愚见
看房地产价格高低有三个办法
1）从成本看
2）从支付能力看
3）从供需看
现在的状态是
1）价格和硬成本的比值很高，尽管房产商实际成本比硬成本要高，但主要还是政策成本
2）很多人买了房子之后，每个月剩余钱很少，支付能力的安全性很低
3）绝对需求是很高的，很多人都需要住房，但是现有的房价许多人根本支付不起，最
后导致有支付能力的需求比供应要少
虽然国内许多人有灰色收入，但是整体人民的工资和支付能力与现有的房价还是不匹配的
我始终有一个观点就是房地产的价值体现于在这个房地产上可得到的利润
商业房地产的价值就体现在我这个餐馆在这个地段有多少人流，能赚多少钱
住宅房地产的价值就体现在我住这个房子的人能拿到多少工资
如果是个ghost town，没工作，这个ghost town的房地产一文不值
现在国内唯一的优势是杠杆的幅度还没那么大
但是如果房地产价格不降，整体杠杆的幅度会逐步增加
通胀可以解决有限大小的问题
但是在中国国际化如此深入的今天
像现在这样的尺度和量级的问题
我觉得通胀是解决不了的
掉.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 其实我一直没看出来国内的房价有很大的泡沫,通货膨胀后工资再涨一涨应该能消化掉.
: 你们说国内房产有泡沫的,是根据什么呀?
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 7 相对集权的政府是不是能让房价不长，或者说微跌，所谓的软着陆？
美国/日本是个自由经济，理论上。
险了
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 如果有人有办法把房产泡沫的影响转化掉，那么美国也不会有今天，日本也不会有失去
: 的二十年。
: 没准天朝有能人,但是我不相信.
: 人为的让房价不跌只会对投机者推波助澜,因为如果房价不会跌,那么炒房地产没有风险了
: 那么问题只会越来越严重
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 8 如果成本和售价相比差别巨大
那么肯定会有人造出便宜的然后便宜的卖
如果人为把成本提上去
那么房价是降不下来，但是也没人买了
没人买房子房产商就翘了
清盘的时候就会贱卖房子
如果政府吃进这些“过剩”房子
甚至吃进后把房子都拆了
……
也许是个办法吧
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
: 相对集权的政府是不是能让房价不长，或者说微跌，所谓的软着陆？
: 美国/日本是个自由经济，理论上。
:
: 险了
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 9
通过地价
问题是买的人还是挺多的样子。刚需那么多。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 如果成本和售价相比差别巨大
: 那么肯定会有人造出便宜的然后便宜的卖
: 如果人为把成本提上去
: 那么房价是降不下来，但是也没人买了
: 没人买房子房产商就翘了
: 清盘的时候就会贱卖房子
: 如果政府吃进这些“过剩”房子
: 甚至吃进后把房子都拆了
: ……
: 也许是个办法吧
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 10 I don't think the first two criteria can be used to judge the housing bubble
in China. There is no property tax in China and the maintenance is dirt-
cheap due to the low labor cost. Therefore, it allows the property owner to
be able to afford to keep the house off the market as well as justifying a
higher price/rent ratio. In US, the operation costs (tax, insurance,
maintenance, etc) is almost 50% of the rent. It is much lower in China.
Therefore, whatever price/rent ratio here, it is justifiab
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 空房率很高，大城市房价跟房租的比例很高，而且平均收入得20年不吃不喝才能买
: 栋房子。国内大量的合租(10几个人组一个三房的)就知道问题很大了。
:
: 掉.
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 11 I think the housing "bubble" in China mainly reflects the income gap in
China. Yes, there are many people who can not afford the current housing
price, but that alone does not mean it is in a bubble state. There are many
people in China who can afford more than one house, in fact, a lot more than
one house.
The poor is getting poorer and the rich is getting richer. So in the event
of housing demand fails to meet the supply, the government can simply offer
subsidized housing to the poor people to
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 个人愚见
: 看房地产价格高低有三个办法
: 1）从成本看
: 2）从支付能力看
: 3）从供需看
: 现在的状态是
: 1）价格和硬成本的比值很高，尽管房产商实际成本比硬成本要高，但主要还是政策成本
: 2）很多人买了房子之后，每个月剩余钱很少，支付能力的安全性很低
: 3）绝对需求是很高的，很多人都需要住房，但是现有的房价许多人根本支付不起，最
: 后导致有支付能力的需求比供应要少
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 No, it's not just twice in China. My parents had an apartment
whose rent/house price is lower than CD interest. They
ended up selling that apartment and put the money in the bank
to earn more -- and worry free too.
Young couples don't have to have a house to get married. My
parents' long-term tenants were newly married couples without
kids. I actually don't think those people would be interested
in buying the apartment -- it's quite shabby and I don't think
they want to stay in my city (not too
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I don't think the first two criteria can be used to judge the housing bubble
: in China. There is no property tax in China and the maintenance is dirt-
: cheap due to the low labor cost. Therefore, it allows the property owner to
: be able to afford to keep the house off the market as well as justifying a
: higher price/rent ratio. In US, the operation costs (tax, insurance,
: maintenance, etc) is almost 50% of the rent. It is much lower in China.
: Therefore, whatever price/rent ratio here, it is justifiab
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 13 OK. Then give me a number. How much is the price/rent ratio in China right
now? I did my analysis on the China housing price two years ago. So I might
be competely out-of-touch of the price right now (after all, although I didn
't think there is a huge bubble at that time, the price is not attractive
either. So I have no plan to buy there and failed to keep updated on the
numbers)
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: No, it's not just twice in China. My parents had an apartment
: whose rent/house price is lower than CD interest. They
: ended up selling that apartment and put the money in the bank
: to earn more -- and worry free too.
: Young couples don't have to have a house to get married. My
: parents' long-term tenants were newly married couples without
: kids. I actually don't think those people would be interested
: in buying the apartment -- it's quite shabby and I don't think
: they want to stay in my city (not too
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 14 Those who paid cash are often supported by their parents.
Most of us in USA don't have US citizen parents.
many
than
offer
Most
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I think the housing "bubble" in China mainly reflects the income gap in
: China. Yes, there are many people who can not afford the current housing
: price, but that alone does not mean it is in a bubble state. There are many
: people in China who can afford more than one house, in fact, a lot more than
: one house.
: The poor is getting poorer and the rich is getting richer. So in the event
: of housing demand fails to meet the supply, the government can simply offer
: subsidized housing to the poor people to
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 Around 333.33 as of 1 year ago. We are in a No.50 or so city.
My current apartment (in Seattle) has a ratio of around 200.
So maybe it's not as bad as twice in China, hehe.
But again, I just think if the rent can't beat CD, it's just
insane to keep the house.
might
didn
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: OK. Then give me a number. How much is the price/rent ratio in China right
: now? I did my analysis on the China housing price two years ago. So I might
: be competely out-of-touch of the price right now (after all, although I didn
: 't think there is a huge bubble at that time, the price is not attractive
: either. So I have no plan to buy there and failed to keep updated on the
: numbers)
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 In fact, the case-shiller number of price-to-rent ratio in
Q4 2008 was 108. I probably over-estimated the price of the
apartment I am renting.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Around 333.33 as of 1 year ago. We are in a No.50 or so city.
: My current apartment (in Seattle) has a ratio of around 200.
: So maybe it's not as bad as twice in China, hehe.
: But again, I just think if the rent can't beat CD, it's just
: insane to keep the house.
:
: might
: didn
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 17 According to this website:
http://www.shanghaiexpat.com/MDForum-viewtopic-p-1048399.phtml
The price-to-rent ratio in China big cities has been
270-400 in May 2007. It probably dropped some now.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: In fact, the case-shiller number of price-to-rent ratio in
: Q4 2008 was 108. I probably over-estimated the price of the
: apartment I am renting.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 18 http://house.sina.com.cn/news/2008-07-23/0735264347.html
北京2008年的房价可以看看这里，可以看到平均房价至少在一万以上吧。
同时2008年职工人均收入可以看这里，大概是4万4.
http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2009-03/26/content_17501813.htm
所以普通80-100平米的房子，一般的职工要20年不吃不喝。
再看美国，美国的职工人均收入大约在4万左右。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
考虑到美国税率高一些，就算3万吧。20年相当于美国房子均价60万。而美国
房价中值最泡沫的时候也无非是略高于20万而已。
结论就是北京的房价大约是美国最泡沫的时候的3倍。考虑到北京职工算是
在国内收入比较高的，而且外地户口不在其中。可以说大多数工薪阶层是
没有可能买得起房子的。
might
didn
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: OK. Then give me a number. How much is the price/rent ratio in China right
: now? I did my analysis on the China housing price two years ago. So I might
: be competely out-of-touch of the price right now (after all, although I didn
: 't think there is a huge bubble at that time, the price is not attractive
: either. So I have no plan to buy there and failed to keep updated on the
: numbers)
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 19 It's unfair to compare Beijing to USA average.
On the other hand, it's also unfair to compare condos/apartments
(Beijing) with SFHs (majority in USA), hehe.
So Beijing's house price is more than 3 times of USA average.
But Beijing's house price is less than 3 times of Los Angeles
average.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: http://house.sina.com.cn/news/2008-07-23/0735264347.html
: 北京2008年的房价可以看看这里，可以看到平均房价至少在一万以上吧。
: 同时2008年职工人均收入可以看这里，大概是4万4.
: http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2009-03/26/content_17501813.htm
: 所以普通80-100平米的房子，一般的职工要20年不吃不喝。
: 再看美国，美国的职工人均收入大约在4万左右。
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
: 考虑到美国税率高一些，就算3万吧。20年相当于美国房子均价60万。而美国
: 房价中值最泡沫的时候也无非是略高于20万而已。
: 结论就是北京的房价大约是美国最泡沫的时候的3倍。考虑到北京职工算是
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 20 It's price/income ratio. If comparing to average American is not fair,
it should be fair to compare to SF, one of the most expensive places
in USA.
So median price in SF is $656K
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/nar_4q/price.html
while median family income $81K
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco,_California
We can assume single person's median income is around $60K. So it's
10 years income compared to 20 years in Beijing. Either Beijing's house
supply is way less than demand, or th
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It's unfair to compare Beijing to USA average.
: On the other hand, it's also unfair to compare condos/apartments
: (Beijing) with SFHs (majority in USA), hehe.
: So Beijing's house price is more than 3 times of USA average.
: But Beijing's house price is less than 3 times of Los Angeles
: average.
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 21 Beijing and Shanghai's price is very different because a lot people in the
country would want to move there because of the privileges that come
with it (such as easy access to great university). If you want to compare
that with city in US, at least you need to compare it with the best school
districts. So that's Los Altos in SF which is way over one million.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: It's price/income ratio. If comparing to average American is not fair,
: it should be fair to compare to SF, one of the most expensive places
: in USA.
: So median price in SF is $656K
: http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/nar_4q/price.html
: while median family income $81K
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco,_California
: We can assume single person's median income is around $60K. So it's
: 10 years income compared to 20 years in Beijing. Either Beijing's house
: supply is way less than demand, or th
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 22 Why alwasy USA?
Why not compare to Korea's soeul, or Japan's tokyo? or some other asian market?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: It's price/income ratio. If comparing to average American is not fair,
: it should be fair to compare to SF, one of the most expensive places
: in USA.
: So median price in SF is $656K
: http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/nar_4q/price.html
: while median family income $81K
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco,_California
: We can assume single person's median income is around $60K. So it's
: 10 years income compared to 20 years in Beijing. Either Beijing's house
: supply is way less than demand, or th
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 23 good point.
market?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: Why alwasy USA?
: Why not compare to Korea's soeul, or Japan's tokyo? or some other asian market?
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 24 Because it's hard to get those data, hehe.
market?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: Why alwasy USA?
: Why not compare to Korea's soeul, or Japan's tokyo? or some other asian market?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 25 I think USA and China may not have a base to compare the house price.
People in this board, should eye on the whole world, not just the USA :), in
order to make money..
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Because it's hard to get those data, hehe.
:
: market?
|
i******l
发帖数: 828 | 26 跟人口过度集中的海岛型国家比较
是对房价走势到达顶峰时候的一个现象。比如太国在10几年前，也兴致勃勃的跟乡岗，
星加皮，台北，东京等地比来比去。
to answer your question: because people in those places do not have as many
options, and it is just a sad fact.
market?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: Why alwasy USA?
: Why not compare to Korea's soeul, or Japan's tokyo? or some other asian market?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 27 Maybe I don't understand Chinese market at all. But, every time someone
tries to explain a market with something other than pure value point of view
, it's a sign of bubble.
Because, if price is in line with value, people normally wouldn't abandon
value as a yardstick.
many
than
offer
Most
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I think the housing "bubble" in China mainly reflects the income gap in
: China. Yes, there are many people who can not afford the current housing
: price, but that alone does not mean it is in a bubble state. There are many
: people in China who can afford more than one house, in fact, a lot more than
: one house.
: The poor is getting poorer and the rich is getting richer. So in the event
: of housing demand fails to meet the supply, the government can simply offer
: subsidized housing to the poor people to
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 28 When talking about US real estate bubble, we don't talk about Dayton, Ohio,
we talk about Florida, California, Las Vegas...
When talking about Japan's bubble, we talk about Tokyo rather than Sapporo.
So, we should ignore Beijing and Shanghai when talking about real estate
bubble because these are just 2 singularities? These two cities accounted
for more than 40% 2008 GDP of the whole country.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Beijing and Shanghai's price is very different because a lot people in the
: country would want to move there because of the privileges that come
: with it (such as easy access to great university). If you want to compare
: that with city in US, at least you need to compare it with the best school
: districts. So that's Los Altos in SF which is way over one million.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 29 confused. so you mean chinese people have more options?
many
【在 i******l 的大作中提到】
: 跟人口过度集中的海岛型国家比较
: 是对房价走势到达顶峰时候的一个现象。比如太国在10几年前，也兴致勃勃的跟乡岗，
: 星加皮，台北，东京等地比来比去。
: to answer your question: because people in those places do not have as many
: options, and it is just a sad fact.
:
: market?
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 30 You are twisting the argument.
I didn't say one shouldn't study Beijing/Shanghai price, I was saying that
you should not use median income to measture the downtown house price of the
big city. It doesn't apply to ANY single city in the world, why should it
be applicable to Shanghai and Beijing?
Take a look at the real estate price around the world, the price in Shanghai
/Beijing is very reasonable comparing with other big cities:
,
.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: When talking about US real estate bubble, we don't talk about Dayton, Ohio,
: we talk about Florida, California, Las Vegas...
: When talking about Japan's bubble, we talk about Tokyo rather than Sapporo.
: So, we should ignore Beijing and Shanghai when talking about real estate
: bubble because these are just 2 singularities? These two cities accounted
: for more than 40% 2008 GDP of the whole country.
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 Could you attach the pic? I couldn't open the website.
the
Shanghai
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You are twisting the argument.
: I didn't say one shouldn't study Beijing/Shanghai price, I was saying that
: you should not use median income to measture the downtown house price of the
: big city. It doesn't apply to ANY single city in the world, why should it
: be applicable to Shanghai and Beijing?
: Take a look at the real estate price around the world, the price in Shanghai
: /Beijing is very reasonable comparing with other big cities:
:
: ,
: .
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 32 OK. See attachment.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Could you attach the pic? I couldn't open the website.
:
: the
: Shanghai
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 33 http://house.sina.com.cn/news/2008-07-23/0735264347.html
北京的4环内可以算city center，均价18400，120平米是220万，
http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2009-03/26/content_17501813.htm
同时2008年职工人均收入可以看这里，大概是4万4.
220/4.4 = 50倍。
对比你的图
跟其他国际大都市至少贵一倍，如何能算合理？
the
Shanghai
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You are twisting the argument.
: I didn't say one shouldn't study Beijing/Shanghai price, I was saying that
: you should not use median income to measture the downtown house price of the
: big city. It doesn't apply to ANY single city in the world, why should it
: be applicable to Shanghai and Beijing?
: Take a look at the real estate price around the world, the price in Shanghai
: /Beijing is very reasonable comparing with other big cities:
:
: ,
: .
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 34 Read the chart carefully before you reply please.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: http://house.sina.com.cn/news/2008-07-23/0735264347.html
: 北京的4环内可以算city center，均价18400，120平米是220万，
: http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2009-03/26/content_17501813.htm
: 同时2008年职工人均收入可以看这里，大概是4万4.
: 220/4.4 = 50倍。
: 对比你的图
: 跟其他国际大都市至少贵一倍，如何能算合理？
:
: the
: Shanghai
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 35 I see a bunch of bubbles, hoho.
Maybe I should move to Cairo for retirement. It's actually
not bad. Yearly safari, trips to pyramids, sunset on the
canal, not bad ah.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: OK. See attachment.
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 36 OK, I thought the X axis is years of income.
This chart doesn't mention how much your median income is,
I don't think absolute price is worth comparison
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Read the chart carefully before you reply please.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 37 What's Manhatten's average household income in 2008?
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: http://house.sina.com.cn/news/2008-07-23/0735264347.html
: 北京的4环内可以算city center，均价18400，120平米是220万，
: http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2009-03/26/content_17501813.htm
: 同时2008年职工人均收入可以看这里，大概是4万4.
: 220/4.4 = 50倍。
: 对比你的图
: 跟其他国际大都市至少贵一倍，如何能算合理？
:
: the
: Shanghai
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 38
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I see a bunch of bubbles, hoho.
: Maybe I should move to Cairo for retirement. It's actually
: not bad. Yearly safari, trips to pyramids, sunset on the
: canal, not bad ah.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 39 But it can be a reference guide for Monte Carlo guys
to consider where to retire, especially when Cairo is not
far away.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: OK, I thought the X axis is years of income.
: This chart doesn't mention how much your median income is,
: I don't think absolute price is worth comparison
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 40 I don't think I am twisting the argument. I didn't say to measure the
downtown house price with median income. I don't know why you think I was
talking about "downtown price", but I didn't say anything about downtown at
all. Maybe there was some misunderstanding. A 3B apartment facing Central
Park in Manhattan is normally 10 times the price of those in normal area of
Brooklyn. That's why people normally use median price rather than average
price. Therefore, we cannot compare huge cities like Bei
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You are twisting the argument.
: I didn't say one shouldn't study Beijing/Shanghai price, I was saying that
: you should not use median income to measture the downtown house price of the
: big city. It doesn't apply to ANY single city in the world, why should it
: be applicable to Shanghai and Beijing?
: Take a look at the real estate price around the world, the price in Shanghai
: /Beijing is very reasonable comparing with other big cities:
:
: ,
: .
|
|
|
p******c
发帖数: 174 | 41 中国现在还处于一个城市化的过程，在大城市里面享受到的医疗，教育等服务都是小城
市不能比拟的，而美国的城市化早已经结束了，有钱人不会争着往市中心拥，况且美国
哪个城市能有像北京，上海，广州一样的人口密度？用中国的大城市的房价跟美国比并
不见得公平
就拿广州为例，很多在市中心所谓的“旺地”买房的不一定都是市内人，不少是在省内
其他城市的经商赚到钱的人用现金购买，那些商人宁愿在广州买房也不愿意在他们所在
的小城市买，市中心的房价很大程度也是被这部分资金给撑起来的。所以我觉得和一般
职工的平均收入比意义不大吧 |
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 42
many
than
People who can afford more than one house would buy the extra
houses for investment, versus houses bought as residence.
Houses as investment are exactly causing the bubble - or
"the foam on the top," so to speak.
offer
No doubt the Chinese government would be able to afford the
direct cost to subsidize, but all the money it pumps into
the system would also cause some huge bubble/inflation -
just like what has happened in the US.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I think the housing "bubble" in China mainly reflects the income gap in
: China. Yes, there are many people who can not afford the current housing
: price, but that alone does not mean it is in a bubble state. There are many
: people in China who can afford more than one house, in fact, a lot more than
: one house.
: The poor is getting poorer and the rich is getting richer. So in the event
: of housing demand fails to meet the supply, the government can simply offer
: subsidized housing to the poor people to
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B********4
发帖数: 7156 | 43 你说得有点道理，但不能证明没有很大泡沫。
我是从广州来的，我父母哥姐都在广州居住。确实有很多外地的有钱人在广州买楼投资
，但是这里面很大一部分人并不在广州住，因为他们的赚钱的地方不在广州。如果他们
是在珠三角的工厂主，一般会把老婆小孩放在广州，但是外省的有钱人基本上就把房子
空着，作为投资用。他们很少出租，因为租金太低而且没有能力管理，出租还会导致房
子不好卖。你到广州偏一点的新住宅区去看，一半的房子晚上都是黑灯的。因为这些人
买房的目的就是等着升值再卖出去。如果升值无望，他们又能找到别的投资渠道，那就
会卖了这个房子。我认为房子就是给人住的，你可以把它当成一个投资的工具，但是必
须在附加在居住功能上。如果空置率过高，说明这个房子住得起的人（不论买还是租）
没有那么多，那么这个房子就丧失了居住功能，只是一个投资工具。我人为这种状况只
可能存在于大家预期房价还会涨，或者至少不会跌的情况中。
=================From phoenixc =============
中国现在还处于一个城市化的过程，在大城市里面享受到的医疗，教育等服务都是小城
市不能比拟的，而美国的城市化早已 |
X******N
发帖数: 109 | 44 update一下，这两天观察了一下上海房市，又开始涨了（和春节前后比较），至于虚的
还是实的待考。 |
t****u
发帖数: 8614 | 45 国内没泡沫的话，这里更没泡沫了。
掉.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 其实我一直没看出来国内的房价有很大的泡沫,通货膨胀后工资再涨一涨应该能消化掉.
: 你们说国内房产有泡沫的,是根据什么呀?
|
