g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 1 跟房租比即可吧。这是唯一可靠的从房子投资中获益的方法。
如果比CD还低，那说明投资的主要目的就是房价涨，这时候
通常都是泡沫。 |
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 2 No. As I argued in the original post, it should be compared with rents after
operational costs (tax, insurance, maintenance, etc).
Otherwise, you will certainly think that condo is more undervalued than the
SFH if you ignore the condo fees.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 跟房租比即可吧。这是唯一可靠的从房子投资中获益的方法。
: 如果比CD还低，那说明投资的主要目的就是房价涨，这时候
: 通常都是泡沫。
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 Huh? The one year CD rate is only 2.25% in China. I don't think the rental
yield is significantly worse than CD in China.
By the way, I am not saying that China's real estate is a good investment. I
'm just saying that the bubble is much smaller than many bears like to think
. I think inflation will be able to take care of the bubble results in a
soft landing. Many Chinese housing bears are using US metrics to measure the
Chinese real estate bubble but these metrics do not apply well (e.g. if yo
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 跟房租比即可吧。这是唯一可靠的从房子投资中获益的方法。
: 如果比CD还低，那说明投资的主要目的就是房价涨，这时候
: 通常都是泡沫。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 I completely agree. I think it's much more accurate than
price/salary, price/square foot, etc.
But not in socialist countries though.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 跟房租比即可吧。这是唯一可靠的从房子投资中获益的方法。
: 如果比CD还低，那说明投资的主要目的就是房价涨，这时候
: 通常都是泡沫。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 5 这个我同意。但是北京的平均月房租在奥运高峰期间也就1500
http://www.realestate.cei.gov.cn/files/20087/2008f7d21c808275050.html
房子成交均价1.1万/平米
http://news.163.com/09/0413/01/56O9OBCC000120GU.html
就算房子平均只有80平米，运营成本为0，那也是586倍的月租，
50年左右年租。
别忘了使用年限只有70年，70年之后现在并没有一个很确定的说法，
国家是可以回收的。
after
the
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: No. As I argued in the original post, it should be compared with rents after
: operational costs (tax, insurance, maintenance, etc).
: Otherwise, you will certainly think that condo is more undervalued than the
: SFH if you ignore the condo fees.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 Right, in most cases, house price to rental ratio is more accurate.
And the actual case in Beijing and Shanghai is that the housing price is
expensive no matter which reasonable yardstick you are using.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I completely agree. I think it's much more accurate than
: price/salary, price/square foot, etc.
: But not in socialist countries though.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 That's technical issues only. At least we agree on it's a better
measure than looking at price per square foot, price/income bah.
after
the
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: No. As I argued in the original post, it should be compared with rents after
: operational costs (tax, insurance, maintenance, etc).
: Otherwise, you will certainly think that condo is more undervalued than the
: SFH if you ignore the condo fees.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 8 Of course. I am a fan of using rental price to decide housing price. I
bought my house end of last year only because the mortgage is now cheaper
than my monthly rent. I don't care about anything else including
unemployment, etc.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: That's technical issues only. At least we agree on it's a better
: measure than looking at price per square foot, price/income bah.
:
: after
: the
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 9 1500RMB apartment cannot be as big as 80m2 bah.
I remember my friend's apartment outside of 6 circle is something
like that, and doesn't look as big as 80m2.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 这个我同意。但是北京的平均月房租在奥运高峰期间也就1500
: http://www.realestate.cei.gov.cn/files/20087/2008f7d21c808275050.html
: 房子成交均价1.1万/平米
: http://news.163.com/09/0413/01/56O9OBCC000120GU.html
: 就算房子平均只有80平米，运营成本为0，那也是586倍的月租，
: 50年左右年租。
: 别忘了使用年限只有70年，70年之后现在并没有一个很确定的说法，
: 国家是可以回收的。
:
: after
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 10 Not sure about now, I rented inside 2 circle 4 years ago around
xizhimen, only 2000RMB for 70M^2, around 8000RMB/M^2 for price
at that time.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 1500RMB apartment cannot be as big as 80m2 bah.
: I remember my friend's apartment outside of 6 circle is something
: like that, and doesn't look as big as 80m2.
|
|
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 11 However, this ratio has a tiny flaw. Housing price is what you will be
paying for the next 30 years. Rental price is what you will be paying for
the next year.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Right, in most cases, house price to rental ratio is more accurate.
: And the actual case in Beijing and Shanghai is that the housing price is
: expensive no matter which reasonable yardstick you are using.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 What English or Chinese speaking country has the lowest price/rent
ratio? I want to move there to retire.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Of course. I am a fan of using rental price to decide housing price. I
: bought my house end of last year only because the mortgage is now cheaper
: than my monthly rent. I don't care about anything else including
: unemployment, etc.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 13 Canada North and you don't worry about housing.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: What English or Chinese speaking country has the lowest price/rent
: ratio? I want to move there to retire.
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 14 差不多70平多一点
北京800k的房子月租金基本是1.5k左右这个说法还是对的
也就是说房价是房租的500-600倍
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 1500RMB apartment cannot be as big as 80m2 bah.
: I remember my friend's apartment outside of 6 circle is something
: like that, and doesn't look as big as 80m2.
|
G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 15 看样子８０万的房跌到２０－３０万也不算过啊．
【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】
: 差不多70平多一点
: 北京800k的房子月租金基本是1.5k左右这个说法还是对的
: 也就是说房价是房租的500-600倍
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 16 this (80-->20/30) is impossible, we know that.
So this means the model/ratio by you folks is wrong???
【在 G******t 的大作中提到】
: 看样子８０万的房跌到２０－３０万也不算过啊．
|
G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 17 I don't know, in lots of places house value to rent ratio is around 100. 200 (300K) is already a little on the up side. but who knows what the ratio should be for Beijing?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: this (80-->20/30) is impossible, we know that.
: So this means the model/ratio by you folks is wrong???
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 18 股市6000点的时候大家也都以为1600点是impossible的
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: this (80-->20/30) is impossible, we know that.
: So this means the model/ratio by you folks is wrong???
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 19 抬杠就没有意思了。
股市腰斩的情况我们见过好多，
但是大都市的房价腰斩的情况我还见过不多。
【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】
: 股市6000点的时候大家也都以为1600点是impossible的
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 20 80->20,30可能是比较不可信
但是没见过的事情并不一定不会发生
aig的事情我们谁也没见过
但还是发生了
而且aig出问题是可以预见的
以没见过为理由还是很危险的
当一座桥严重超载的时候，桥塌几率很大，但是多少会塌，什么时候塌，到底会不会塌
，塌到什么程度谁也不知道。但是超载的时候很不安全这是人所共知的。如果今天侥幸
超载的桥没有塌，我们并不会说这个载重限度有问题。
房价和房租的比值很大的时候也很危险，但是具体房价会跌到多少谁也不知道。但是通
过价值计算80->20,30并不为过，而且事实上我们的邻国日本的房价就是腰斩的。
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 抬杠就没有意思了。
: 股市腰斩的情况我们见过好多，
: 但是大都市的房价腰斩的情况我还见过不多。
|
|
|
s*****n
发帖数: 2174 | 21 这种房产泡沫, 就像是一个饭馆, 大家可以随便进去吃饭, 吃完了也不用给钱. 但是饭
馆会偶尔结算. 结算的时候, 所有被抓住正在吃饭的人, 为前面所有白吃饭的人买单.
大家把房价炒的虚高, 即时卖出去的的确能赚一笔, 不过到了价格高的承受不住了, 泡
沫破灭的时候, 手里有房子的, 就大亏一笔.
中国股市是这样, 房市也是一样. 美国次贷危机也是一样. 任何市场, 如果很多人是以
盈利为目的而进入, 就危险了.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 80->20,30可能是比较不可信
: 但是没见过的事情并不一定不会发生
: aig的事情我们谁也没见过
: 但还是发生了
: 而且aig出问题是可以预见的
: 以没见过为理由还是很危险的
: 当一座桥严重超载的时候，桥塌几率很大，但是多少会塌，什么时候塌，到底会不会塌
: ，塌到什么程度谁也不知道。但是超载的时候很不安全这是人所共知的。如果今天侥幸
: 超载的桥没有塌，我们并不会说这个载重限度有问题。
: 房价和房租的比值很大的时候也很危险，但是具体房价会跌到多少谁也不知道。但是通
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 22 everything is possible, this is very true.
But we need to consider the probability...
The probability of gain, compared to loss
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 80->20,30可能是比较不可信
: 但是没见过的事情并不一定不会发生
: aig的事情我们谁也没见过
: 但还是发生了
: 而且aig出问题是可以预见的
: 以没见过为理由还是很危险的
: 当一座桥严重超载的时候，桥塌几率很大，但是多少会塌，什么时候塌，到底会不会塌
: ，塌到什么程度谁也不知道。但是超载的时候很不安全这是人所共知的。如果今天侥幸
: 超载的桥没有塌，我们并不会说这个载重限度有问题。
: 房价和房租的比值很大的时候也很危险，但是具体房价会跌到多少谁也不知道。但是通
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 23 I don't understand the probability. I can't speak out whether the
probability of something is 90% or 30%. For a coin or a dice, I know the
probability. But for housing price, I don't know the probability. And, even
there is a number, for example, 93%, I still don't understand what this 93%
really does mean. Sometimes, calculating the probability in investment world
is like playing russian roulette and saying using an 8 chamber revolver has
a better chance to survive than using a 6 chamber revolv
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: everything is possible, this is very true.
: But we need to consider the probability...
: The probability of gain, compared to loss
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 24 in summary, it is not a good time to buy an apt in china as an investment.
Right?
(or never buy houses/apts as an investment tool?? confused!)
(another side thought, HK apt is very expensive, and seems ok. The recent
drop was due to 97 concern) |
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 25 Would you consider it's safe to invest in an HK apartment?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: in summary, it is not a good time to buy an apt in china as an investment.
: Right?
: (or never buy houses/apts as an investment tool?? confused!)
: (another side thought, HK apt is very expensive, and seems ok. The recent
: drop was due to 97 concern)
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 26 "Never buy any commodities as investment."
Those are for speculation only. But again, they are very
good candidates for speculation.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: in summary, it is not a good time to buy an apt in china as an investment.
: Right?
: (or never buy houses/apts as an investment tool?? confused!)
: (another side thought, HK apt is very expensive, and seems ok. The recent
: drop was due to 97 concern)
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 27
so index/stock is the only way for investment???
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: "Never buy any commodities as investment."
: Those are for speculation only. But again, they are very
: good candidates for speculation.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 28 No ah. You can invest in construction companies; just don't buy
a bunch of buildings and hold.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: so index/stock is the only way for investment???
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 29 I think it's ok to buy real estate as investment. Just whether the price is
good or not comparing to the value. If I can get copy paper for 50 cents per
rim, I will invest in it as well.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: No ah. You can invest in construction companies; just don't buy
: a bunch of buildings and hold.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 30 does diversification include some buildings??
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: No ah. You can invest in construction companies; just don't buy
: a bunch of buildings and hold.
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 31 If "diversification of speculation", yes.
I just don't buy the theory "keep some gold in your portfolio for
30 years".
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: does diversification include some buildings??
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 32 That "investment" is the same investment in stock trader's
mouth.
It's speculation in my mouth. In long term, houses appreciate
at inflation rate.
is
per
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I think it's ok to buy real estate as investment. Just whether the price is
: good or not comparing to the value. If I can get copy paper for 50 cents per
: rim, I will invest in it as well.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 33 That's a good diversification for real rich. Use physical gold though.
That's a good hedge against war. You never know what'll happen tomorrow.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: If "diversification of speculation", yes.
: I just don't buy the theory "keep some gold in your portfolio for
: 30 years".
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 34 Investors buy commodities and equities, speculators buy commodities and
equities as well. The difference is whether the predictable downside risk
can wipe you off, even the probability of the risk is small mathematically.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: That "investment" is the same investment in stock trader's
: mouth.
: It's speculation in my mouth. In long term, houses appreciate
: at inflation rate.
:
: is
: per
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 35 Investment doesn't mean we have to put "buy and hold" in mind. If I can buy
gold at 100 dollars per ounce, I will buy it and sell it when/where the
price is more than that.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: If "diversification of speculation", yes.
: I just don't buy the theory "keep some gold in your portfolio for
: 30 years".
|
c*********t
发帖数: 2341 | 36 远一点的日本、德国
近一点的中国的海南、北海
房价腰斩的例子太多了
你没见过不等于不存在
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 抬杠就没有意思了。
: 股市腰斩的情况我们见过好多，
: 但是大都市的房价腰斩的情况我还见过不多。
|
k****t
发帖数: 12697 | 37 the bubble has two folds: price bubble and supply bubble. enough has been
said about price.
for supply, if many people bought houses/condos as "investment", it is a
supply bubble. here in my local area, not many buying as investment at the
boom years, though the price went up fast in 03-05. Now the price holds up
well because people bought for primary residence - they need a roof to live
under anyway. price still went 7-8% in 07, flat for 08, no dropping so far
for 09 (actually up a few %) |
