x********4
发帖数: 405 | 1 Does anyone know any papers in psychology or economics that argues or shows
that individuals/firms become more confident or change their behavior if
they recently have some successful experience? Intuitively, this should be
more pronouned for younger/less experienced individuals/firms than older/
more experienced ones. Please suggest some papers. Thanks much! |
k***y
发帖数: 133 | 2 Analyst: Management Science, 2006, Gilles Hilary & ?
Managers: JAE, 2011, Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu
shows
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: Does anyone know any papers in psychology or economics that argues or shows
: that individuals/firms become more confident or change their behavior if
: they recently have some successful experience? Intuitively, this should be
: more pronouned for younger/less experienced individuals/firms than older/
: more experienced ones. Please suggest some papers. Thanks much!
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 3 thanks much. the two papers you suggested seem to say that recent success
leads to overconfidence, which is a negative consequence. What i am looking
for is that recent success leads to an imporvement of confidence or a change
in the firm/individual's reaction to failure, which is a positive
consequence. Any sugegstions? thanks very much!
【在 k***y 的大作中提到】
: Analyst: Management Science, 2006, Gilles Hilary & ?
: Managers: JAE, 2011, Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu
:
: shows
|
s*****w
发帖数: 2065 | 4 search "CEO over confident" in google scholar
shows
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: Does anyone know any papers in psychology or economics that argues or shows
: that individuals/firms become more confident or change their behavior if
: they recently have some successful experience? Intuitively, this should be
: more pronouned for younger/less experienced individuals/firms than older/
: more experienced ones. Please suggest some papers. Thanks much!
|
s*****w
发帖数: 2065 | 5 不好意思，才看到这个，呵呵。
你是说类似believe updating马？
looking
change
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: thanks much. the two papers you suggested seem to say that recent success
: leads to overconfidence, which is a negative consequence. What i am looking
: for is that recent success leads to an imporvement of confidence or a change
: in the firm/individual's reaction to failure, which is a positive
: consequence. Any sugegstions? thanks very much!
|
k***y
发帖数: 133 | 6 I have no idea.....
looking
change
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: thanks much. the two papers you suggested seem to say that recent success
: leads to overconfidence, which is a negative consequence. What i am looking
: for is that recent success leads to an imporvement of confidence or a change
: in the firm/individual's reaction to failure, which is a positive
: consequence. Any sugegstions? thanks very much!
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 7 could be believe updating in the sense that the manager/individual update
the belive about his own ability to doing certain things after some
successful experience and change his behavior for subsequent decisions. Any
suggestions? thanks much
【在 s*****w 的大作中提到】
: 不好意思，才看到这个，呵呵。
: 你是说类似believe updating马？
:
: looking
: change
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 8 anyway, thanks much!
【在 k***y 的大作中提到】
: I have no idea.....
:
: looking
: change
|
z***c
发帖数: 2959 | 9 cannot believe you guys don't know the right spelling "belief updating"
Any
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: could be believe updating in the sense that the manager/individual update
: the belive about his own ability to doing certain things after some
: successful experience and change his behavior for subsequent decisions. Any
: suggestions? thanks much
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 10 hehe... typo, typo... any suggestions for the papers i am looking for?
【在 z***c 的大作中提到】
: cannot believe you guys don't know the right spelling "belief updating"
:
: Any
|
|
|
s*****w
发帖数: 2065 | 11 我错了，不是故意的，sorry...
【在 z***c 的大作中提到】
: cannot believe you guys don't know the right spelling "belief updating"
:
: Any
|
s*****w
发帖数: 2065 | 12 不太明白你的定位。
你要从manager/individual自身的角度看，还是从外界对他的评价看？
我的意思是说，是影响此人以后做决策，还是影响别人以后怎么评判他的业绩？
如果是前者，我更相信overconfidence story。
如果是后者，你可以搜索learning model相关的literature，包括rational expectati
on。
Any
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: could be believe updating in the sense that the manager/individual update
: the belive about his own ability to doing certain things after some
: successful experience and change his behavior for subsequent decisions. Any
: suggestions? thanks much
|
z***c
发帖数: 2959 | 13 This time you're right. It could be just simply learning of economic
environment and business model and has nothing to do with confidence
adjustment.
The former is more likely to enjoy the first order effect.
How to empirically test the change of overconfidence?
Anyone has Malmendiel's data set?
Is she willing to share if I ask directly?
expectati
【在 s*****w 的大作中提到】
: 不太明白你的定位。
: 你要从manager/individual自身的角度看，还是从外界对他的评价看？
: 我的意思是说，是影响此人以后做决策，还是影响别人以后怎么评判他的业绩？
: 如果是前者，我更相信overconfidence story。
: 如果是后者，你可以搜索learning model相关的literature，包括rational expectati
: on。
:
: Any
|
k***y
发帖数: 133 | 14 I think they do share the original measure based option holdings. However,
that measure is not a good one as argued by many.
I think some others also collect the media based measure but I don't know if
they are willing to share it.
【在 z***c 的大作中提到】
: This time you're right. It could be just simply learning of economic
: environment and business model and has nothing to do with confidence
: adjustment.
: The former is more likely to enjoy the first order effect.
: How to empirically test the change of overconfidence?
: Anyone has Malmendiel's data set?
: Is she willing to share if I ask directly?
:
: expectati
|
a**n
发帖数: 3801 | 15 I guess xiaotian is trying to telling a story about his empirical results
【在 z***c 的大作中提到】
: This time you're right. It could be just simply learning of economic
: environment and business model and has nothing to do with confidence
: adjustment.
: The former is more likely to enjoy the first order effect.
: How to empirically test the change of overconfidence?
: Anyone has Malmendiel's data set?
: Is she willing to share if I ask directly?
:
: expectati
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 16 that is exactly right. I wanted to use some literature to justify/motivate
the empirical resutls i have. any thoughts? thanks!
【在 a**n 的大作中提到】
: I guess xiaotian is trying to telling a story about his empirical results
|
k***y
发帖数: 133 | 17 Maybe not behavioral study
just managers update their believes of their own ability based on prior
results
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: that is exactly right. I wanted to use some literature to justify/motivate
: the empirical resutls i have. any thoughts? thanks!
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 18 you are right, however, what i need is some citations that can justify this
argument, hehe...
【在 k***y 的大作中提到】
: Maybe not behavioral study
: just managers update their believes of their own ability based on prior
: results
|
k***y
发帖数: 133 | 19 I do remember there are at least some published models in Accounting /
Finance in 1990s
I cannot recall the journal and authors now.........
this
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: you are right, however, what i need is some citations that can justify this
: argument, hehe...
|
e********I
发帖数: 693 | 20 http://www.people.hbs.edu/dscharfstein/Working%20Papers/Skill_v
http://www.mit.edu/~aschoar/CEOCareersStyle_v2.pdf
The two papers are kinda related, not sure if either could help.
looking
change
【在 x********4 的大作中提到】
: thanks much. the two papers you suggested seem to say that recent success
: leads to overconfidence, which is a negative consequence. What i am looking
: for is that recent success leads to an imporvement of confidence or a change
: in the firm/individual's reaction to failure, which is a positive
: consequence. Any sugegstions? thanks very much!
|
x********4
发帖数: 405 | 21 very much related! especially the first paper. I actually was aware of the
paper but forgot about it. thank you so much!!!
【在 e********I 的大作中提到】
: http://www.people.hbs.edu/dscharfstein/Working%20Papers/Skill_v
: http://www.mit.edu/~aschoar/CEOCareersStyle_v2.pdf
: The two papers are kinda related, not sure if either could help.
:
: looking
: change
|
C********n
发帖数: 346 | 22 Barber and Odean (2001):
"Gervais and Odean [1998] develop a model in which investor
overconfidence results from self-serving attribution bias. Investors
in this model infer their own abilities from their successes
and failures. Due to their tendency to take too much credit for
their successes, they become overconŽdent. Deaux and Farris
[1977], Meehan and Overton [1986], and Beyer [1990] and that
the self-serving attribution bias is greater for men than for
women. And so men are likely to become more overconfident than
women."
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.145.82 |
