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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 1 Three signs of trouble for immigration reform in the House
By Sean Sullivan, Published: June 21, 2013 at 6:30 amE-mail the writer
The Senate’s bipartisan immigration reform effort picked up steam this week
following an agreement to beef up border security, a nonpartisan analysis
concluding the bill would slash deficits by nearly $200 billion over the
next decade, and conservative commentator Bill O’Reilly’s endorsement.
But over in the House is a different picture. There are some emerging signs
of trouble on the other side of the Capitol for comprehensive reform
advocates. Here are the three biggest ones:
1. An unruly GOP Conference: The House’s failure to pass a farm bill
Thursday was a stark reminder that the lower chamber’s Republican
Conference just can’t be led right now. Most Democrats voted against the
bill, but they were joined by enough conservatives who opposed it from the
right to sink the measure. From the “Plan B” debacle in last year’s
debate over tax rates to a recent effort to ban abortions after 20 weeks,
the conservative wing of the House has made its voice heard on multiple
occasions. So if the Senate passes an immigration bill by a wide margin, it
remains to be seen whether that impresses anyone on the conservative side of
the GOP Conference enough to shift their views. Given the track record of
House Republicans, it could be a hard sell even if the Senate bill gets 70+
votes.
2. Bohener’s Hastert Rule remark: House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed
this week not to bring an immigration bill to the floor that did not have
the support of a majority of House Republicans. Setting such a condition in
advance only narrows the path to passage. Boehner didn’t rule out relying
on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could
be negotiated between the House and the Senate. But the last thing he needs
right now for his own political future is to stoke more anger within his
conference. Boehner will face pressure from Senate Republicans, donors, and
other GOP players to get immigration reform done. But he’s making clear
early that despite all that, he’s not going to walk away from his
conference to get a deal done. And that hard line will make it more
difficult for reform to happen, given the opposition on the right to pillars
of the Senate bill.
3. The GOP primary threat: This isn’t new this week but it bears repeating,
because, as the gun debate showed, it doesn’t matter what public opinion
says or what other external factors exist, members of Congress will
ultimately prioritize the outlook of their constituents over whichever way
the national conversation is leaning. If they don’t, they up the chances of
losing their jobs. Redistricting has contributed to a situation in which
many House Republicans represent safe GOP districts in which the threat of a
primary is worth more worry than being defeated in the general election. A
vote for immigration reform could become an easy way for potential
challengers to get to the right of incumbents in some Republican districts.
And rest assured, GOP members will not lose sight of that.
RNC outraises DNC: The Republican National Committee raised $7.3 million and
ended the month with $10.8 million in the bank, it announced Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee raised $5.9 million and banked
about $6 million. It is carrying $19.8 million in debt, while the RNC is
nearly debt-free. | s********c
发帖数: 367 | | j***e
发帖数: 2428 | 3 睡吧
week
signs
【在 b*****d 的大作中提到】
: Three signs of trouble for immigration reform in the House
: By Sean Sullivan, Published: June 21, 2013 at 6:30 amE-mail the writer
: The Senate’s bipartisan immigration reform effort picked up steam this week
: following an agreement to beef up border security, a nonpartisan analysis
: concluding the bill would slash deficits by nearly $200 billion over the
: next decade, and conservative commentator Bill O’Reilly’s endorsement.
: But over in the House is a different picture. There are some emerging signs
: of trouble on the other side of the Capitol for comprehensive reform
: advocates. Here are the three biggest ones:
: 1. An unruly GOP Conference: The House’s failure to pass a farm bill
| J*******A
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