z**x
发帖数: 226 | | g******e
发帖数: 1258 | | m******j
发帖数: 251 | 3 是不是60票只能保底，70票能大大增加CIR通过house的概率？
【在 g******e 的大作中提到】
: bipartisan or not.
| z**x
发帖数: 226 | 4 但是senate是senate, house是house阿，senate有更多的共和党支持对house的共和党
影响大么？我怎么觉得应该是说服house的共和党，而不是senate的，如果已经有60的
话。 | n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 5 造势很重要
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 如题？
| j***e
发帖数: 2428 | 6 没区别
过不了
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 如题？
| b****n
发帖数: 328 | 7 气势。
政客都是墙头草，站队很重要，哪边强就站到哪边。如果CIR轻松加愉快的过了参议院
，那么政客会认为这是人心所向，就会倒过来支持，抢功。 | g******e
发帖数: 1258 | 8 60票就是dem自己玩的，７０票表明republican是真的动心想支持了，对house肯定有压
力。
【在 m******j 的大作中提到】
: 是不是60票只能保底，70票能大大增加CIR通过house的概率？
| C**********i
发帖数: 694 | 9 以下只是引用: 基本上是关于60和70票区别的正常人观点。
http://www.musillo.com/2013/05/next-steps-on-cir.html
NEXT STEPS ON CIR
Posted: 28 May 2013 08:32 AM PDT
Last week the Senate Judiciary Committee passed S. 744, the Border Security,
Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, or what is
generally called Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). While this was a
significant step, we are still a long way from actually having CIR as law.
S.744 does many things. This post will not talk discuss the specifics of
the law but will focus on the next procedural steps that must happen if CIR
is to become law.
From here, the bill moves to the full Senate. The conventional wisdom is
that in June the full Senate will pass the bill. After the Senate acts is
where it gets interesting.
What the House will do is a wide-open question. Some think that if the
Senate passes the bill with a healthy majority, then the House will fall in
line. While the House will have its own bill, it may look a lot like S.744,
if S.744 passes the full Senate with wide support. For example, a 70/30
pass rate means that a lot of Republicans and Democrats have voted for it,
which means strong bipartisan support.
If this happens we would expect to see House action before their recess in
early August. Pres. Obama will certainly sign the bill; there is zero
chance that he will veto it. So the next key date is mid/late June to see
what the full Senate will do.
On the other hand if the Senate cannot get to the “magic 70 number” then
the House may craft a dramatically different bill, and predictions become
muddy. If the House starts from scratch with its own bill this could drag
on for a while.
At this point the odds are 50/50 that we get CIR in 2013, and the odds
improved significantly with the Senate Judiciary Committee’s actions. | s********c
发帖数: 367 | 10 "正常人观点"，说得好
看来现在也就是个五五分的事儿
Security,
CIR
【在 C**********i 的大作中提到】
: 以下只是引用: 基本上是关于60和70票区别的正常人观点。
: http://www.musillo.com/2013/05/next-steps-on-cir.html
: NEXT STEPS ON CIR
: Posted: 28 May 2013 08:32 AM PDT
: Last week the Senate Judiciary Committee passed S. 744, the Border Security,
: Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, or what is
: generally called Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). While this was a
: significant step, we are still a long way from actually having CIR as law.
: S.744 does many things. This post will not talk discuss the specifics of
: the law but will focus on the next procedural steps that must happen if CIR
| w******7
发帖数: 445 | 11 哈哈哈，你喜欢说九一分也行啊，或者100%能过。论坛就是欢迎各种观点。
6月水过，8月拿卡！
【在 s********c 的大作中提到】
: "正常人观点"，说得好
: 看来现在也就是个五五分的事儿
:
: Security,
: CIR
| b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 12 70票之说是从boehner过去半年的表现得出的.boehner过去半年一共在4个bill上没有用
hastert rule.fisical cliff, CR, violence against women act,还有一个记不住了.
这4个bill都是参议院高票(>70)通过的.然后Boehner拿到floor表决.大多数共和党议员
反对.但是在民主党的帮助下,最后通过.所以conventional wisdom认为,如果参议院高
票通过,Boehner可能会再次破hastert rule. 不过本届众议院是unconventional的,很
难预测.所以只能走一步,看一步了.先看参议院情况了. |
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