m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 1 其实也不仅是黄金，作者有个中文名字，但是英文好的太离谱了。估计是个老外起了个
中文名
http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/world-gold-council-clueless-on-chin
Zhanglan • 2 days ago
Koos, every day I read utter lies and nonsense - about China, about Gold,
about the effects of Winter weather on the US Economy, about the fact that
QE tapering is negative for Gold, about how the Gold : Silver ratio has
historically averaged 15, about how a rising stock market is bad for Gold,
about how crises in Emerging Markets currencies are bad for Gold - and today
I even read that investment demand for Gold was down 50% in 2013 (and that'
s why the price fell) http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb... and according to the World Gold Council the increase in OTC demand "was primarily due to a build up of stockpiles in Q4 by wholesalers and fabricators in Asia".
These people are not stupid or confused - it's all lies and deliberate
misinformation - lies by the media (Bloomberg in particular), lies by the
Government, lies by the Gold Bugs. And none of it matters:
1. Even if you are right that Chinese gold demand totalled over 2,000 tons
in 2013, it didnt stop the Gold price falling because
2. Unless you are Germany, 1000 tons or 2000 tons is a tiny amount of Gold
compared to the estimated 170,000 tons of above-ground stocks and the [
Insert Improbably High Number Here] OTC volume traded daily on the LBMA and
elsewhere. When you are repeatedly dropping 4,000 COMEX futures in a single
clip at 0300 GMT, 50 tons of Chinese Gold Pandas here or there are probably
not a material factor in the grander scheme of things
3. Even if we knew the precise amount of Gold imported, exported, lost down
the back of sofas and turned into gold-plated dildos in China, so what? The
underlying truth is that China is an emerging economic power - that's why
the Western media has to keep claiming that its about to collapse every day
- its middle class has an exponentially increasing disposable income and
isnt afraid to use it, and the West is economically dead in the water. Let
them lie about it - its not going to change anything
What we need is to look beyond the gaming, the willful ignorance and the
tribalism which typifies what passes for analysis of the Gold market, look
beyond the geopolitics, social conditioning and the spin, and focus on what
all of this is actually telling us:
a. Something is badly wrong with the financial markets in the West, and the
pivot of economic activity is shifting eastwards. Investing in Mandarin
lessons will probably deliver greater lifetime returns than investing in
precious metals.
b. It is readily apparent that Gold remains a significant component of the
global financial system, but that cultural attitudes towards it vary, and
politicians are acutely aware of the emotional and psychological impact
which news about Gold has on their serfs populations. They will quite
clearly stop at nothing to ensure that their privileged position as top1% /
Reserve Currency / Too Big To Fail / Global Bully / Thief of Last Resort
continues unchallenged
c. As a price-related investment, Gold offers no greater chance of a
profitable outcome over any given time period than a Casino (and the odds
are similarly stacked against the punters), but as a store of value it is
unsurpassed. Check out the www.pricedingold.com charts and tell me it's not
so - since the Dotcom bust, since Lehmans, since Taper was announced and
since the New Year, Gold has been the leading performer amongst mainstream
asset classes. Is the price "capped" today at the 55.37-week seasonally
adjusted average? Is Yellen farting a good or bad thing for COMEX
inventories? Does the chart show a clear Teapot-and-Tulip formation with a
neckline at $1343? It doesn't matter - and looking at it in greater detail
is not going to reveal greater insight - because the simple fact is that,
come rain or shine, over any sane investment horizon longer than a gnats
attention span, Gold will maintain its value relative to other commodities,
and will outperform all and any pneumatically-inflatable paper assets
The world is full of snake-oil salesmen trying to peddle their magical
trading strategies, newsletters, worthless novelty silver buttons***, and
their attendant troupes of camp following preppers, fanbois and self-styled
prophets of the apicalypse- and it has always been so. On the other side we
have amoral and unprincipled financiers, corrupt politicians and predatory
commercial interests, lying through the teeth of sycophantic and compliant
media whilst a largely apathetic and dumbed-down populace gorges itself on
Next American Idol aand Britain's Got Talent
[*** One website whose research I have hitherto respected has just
published a short video clip in which its proprietor claims to be personally
90% invested in Silver, because Silver will outperform Gold and everything
else, Silver Silver Silver, did I mention Silver yet? The historical Gold:
Silver ratio is 15:1, that's where Silver is headed right now, buy Silver.
On their website ~ alongside their $1300 Insider tips subscription
service ~ they helpfully offer their newly-informed clientele a bulk-
purchase Silver Monster Box of 500 oz of coins - in which volume you would
imagine the premium over spot and bid-offer spread would be fairly thin.
However, the 'Resale' price they indicate for this item is more than 10%
below their Offer, and to rub salt into the wounds, the coins aren't even
available until early March. Compare this to the over-the-counter market for
retail Gold coins, where - as I have illustrated before - the real world
Bid - Offer spread is typically less than 5%, and it is hard to reach any
other conclusion than that this "research" is primarily a reflection of the
firm's business model, rather a sober analysis of reality: whatever happens
to the Silver price directionally or relative to Gold, they win, you lose.
cui bono indeed
But there appears to be no law against this kind of commercially-
agitated disinformation, nor any shortage of mugs willing to pay $1300 to
follow the latest Messiah or wait until March 12th to get a box of Silver
coins in the forlorn hope that price will have risen to $24+ / oz by then.
It is not your - or anyone else's - responsibility to protect these fools
from themselves and from those who would fleece them ]
Your challenge - our challenge - is to rise above it, navigate a way through
this bullshit and focus on the important things in life. Whether Chinese
imports were 1000 tons or 2000 tons is immaterial - and even if you somehow
proved that you were correct, some muppet would simply dismiss all Chinese
statistics as bogus, and if they weren't Chinese, would simply claim that
the charts were "made up by The Powers That Be" and that prices never
actually traded at those levels. People will believe what they have been
conditioned to bellieve - leave them to it
Keep up the good work; you surely realise by now that you are widely
respected and your pioneering research is read by a very large number of
people; don't fall into the Bron - Kid Dynamite- Trader Dan - Turd Ferguson
- Andrew Maguire "he said / she said" catfight - just keep on telling it how
you see it and ignore the backchat. There's far more to life than "being
right" , and you are one of the very few - maybe even the only -
Commentators on Gold who doesn't have a commercial angle to promote (unlike
certain Surrreal Asset peddlers and online silver button vendors ). Stick
with the integrity , remember why you are doing this in the first place, and
keep on keeping on.
The Truth is (probably) Out There - but a variety of vested interests are
trying to stop us hearing it, hardly anybody is listening, most of those who
are listening don't understand it, and the rest really don't care anyhow. "
Strictly Celebrity Sheepshagging (on Ice, With the Stars, Sponsored by Wonga
.com)" is far more important than the demise of Western civilisation. Bread
& Circuses, Dear Boy..... | m****a
发帖数: 2593 | 2 “As a price-related investment, Gold offers no greater chance of a
profitable outcome over any given time period than a Casino (and the odds
are similarly stacked against the punters), but as a store of value it is
unsurpassed.” | g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 3 The data pattern of GLD looks like it is one of the major negative beta
source. Or, a solid hedge tool.
That means, we need to change the holding position from time to time.
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: “As a price-related investment, Gold offers no greater chance of a
: profitable outcome over any given time period than a Casino (and the odds
: are similarly stacked against the punters), but as a store of value it is
: unsurpassed.”
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