c******n
发帖数: 16403 | 1 Is The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver Supply Deficits?
June 17, 2011 By Patrick A. Heller 4 Comments
The COMEX has just dropped the minimum margin requirement for gold contracts
to $6,075 from its former $6,751 minimum. This move does not make economic
sense as the price of gold is now within 2% of its all-time high COMEX clos
e.
The lower margin requirement also does not make sense when compared to the C
OMEX margin requirements for silver contracts. With the lower margin requir
ements it is now possible to control more than $25 worth of gold for every $
1 of margin put down on a gold contract. In contrast, the silver contract m
inimum margin requirements are much higher. At today’s closing silver pric
e, investors could only control up to $8.30 of silver for every $1 of margin
put down on a silver contract.
You have to remember that common sense and consistency aren’t the only fact
ors that the COMEX considers when setting these requirements. Could it be t
hat the COMEX is trying to lure speculators and investors away from the silv
er market by offering them greater margin opportunities in the gold market?
Think about it for a minute. By the end of this month, the next round of CO
MEX silver options will expire and the first day of notice for delivery of J
uly 2011 silver contracts will occur. Both of these events could trigger st
rong demand that could seriously deplete COMEX registered silver inventories
.
On June 16, 2010, the COMEX had 119.5 million ounces of total silver in its
bonded warehouses. Since then, there has been a steady outflow of silver fr
om these warehouses, especially of the registered silver that is available t
o fulfill contract deliveries. Early this week, total COMEX silver inventor
ies had fallen below 99 million ounces, a decline of more than 17% in the pa
st year. Even more important, the quantity of inventories that were registe
red had fallen to record low levels below 30 million ounces! The remaining
COMEX inventories are “eligible” which means that that they are owned by i
nvestors who are simply storing the silver in COMEX warehouses. Eligible in
ventories cannot be used to fulfill COMEX contracts unless the individual ow
ners choose to make them available for that purpose.
When the March and May 2011 COMEX silver contracts matured, a significant pe
rcentage of them were settled for cash, as is permitted under COMEX rules.
However, the cash prices that contract owners received were at levels report
ed to be as much as 30% higher than the prevailing spot prices! Looking bac
k at when the December 2010 COMEX silver contracts matured, it appears there
may have been a larger than normal percentage of contracts that were settle
d for cash.
The sellers of COMEX contracts obviously would not be willing to pay up to 3
0% above the spot price to settle their liability for cash if they had the a
lternative of simply delivering physical silver. The fact that comparativel
y little silver is being removed from COMEX registered inventories to fulfil
l maturing contracts is a significant indicator of a major physical supply s
hortage.
I don’t know if the COMEX reduced gold margin requirements in order to draw
some leveraged investors away from holding maturing silver options and comm
odity contracts. The timing is definitely suspicious.
Today was not a good day for the US government on multiple fronts. The unof
ficial Misery index, which adds the Bureau of Labor Statistics official figu
res for unemployment and the rise in consumer prices stands at 12.7, which i
s the highest figure since 1983! From June 1993 through May 2008, the Miser
y index had been below 10. This index has been continuously above 10 since
November 2009.
The news got worse from there. At the International Monetary Fund press con
ference in So Paulo, Brazil the United States was lumped with Greece, Ir
eland, and Japan as being the countries most in need of restoring their publ
ic finances to reasonable debt levels.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan
warned that a default by the Greek government could push the US back into a
recession. He further said that, “chances of Greece not defaulting are ve
ry small.” He further emphasized the risk by saying that the risk of a Gre
ek default was now “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out
.”
Today, Germany and France put together another bailout package for the Greek
government. There is widespread fear that Greece may default on its debt a
nd start a domino effect of defaults much worse than experienced when Lehman
Brothers collapsed in 2008. In the commercial market, Greek companies are
already paying 27% interest for 2-year loans, which is a rate so high that i
t almost assumes that a government default is inevitable. Today’s bailout
package did not cure the problem of the Greek government spending beyond its
means. Instead, dealing with the debt problem has been pushed a few months
into the future.
If Greece goes into default, there is a very real risk that Ireland, Italy,
Spain, Portugal, California, New York, and Illinois, to mention only a few,
could themselves quickly begin defaulting on their debts.
As I have been suggesting all along, to protect yourself you might want get
rid of some of your fiat currencies to increase your holdings of physical go
ld and silver, the only forms of money that have never failed. | a*o
发帖数: 19981 | 2 什么呀，今年年初就开始有人怀疑这个了，到现在这地步，连猪都开始怀疑了。 | A*********t
发帖数: 7481 | 3 所以吗，银子还会再跌。等回涨时就很快。
怀疑有个P用！
contracts
economic
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requir
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【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: Is The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver Supply Deficits?
: June 17, 2011 By Patrick A. Heller 4 Comments
: The COMEX has just dropped the minimum margin requirement for gold contracts
: to $6,075 from its former $6,751 minimum. This move does not make economic
: sense as the price of gold is now within 2% of its all-time high COMEX clos
: e.
: The lower margin requirement also does not make sense when compared to the C
: OMEX margin requirements for silver contracts. With the lower margin requir
: ements it is now possible to control more than $25 worth of gold for every $
: 1 of margin put down on a gold contract. In contrast, the silver contract m
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