p****y
发帖数: 23737 | 1 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/opinion/to-save-our-economy-d
tml?_r=1&hp
WITH a single bold act, President Obama could correct the country’s course,
help assure his re-election, and preserve our children’s future.
He needs to redefine America’s mindset about national security away from th
e old defense mentality that American power derives predominantly from our m
ilitary might, rather than from the strength, agility and competitiveness of
our economy. He should make it clear that today American jobs and wealth ma
tter more than military prowess.
As Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared la
st year, “The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.
”
There are dozens of initiatives President Obama could undertake to strengthe
n our economic security. Here is one: He should enter into closed-door negot
iations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion of American deb
t currently held by China in exchange for a deal to end American military as
sistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminate the current United States-Ta
iwan defense arrangement by 2015.
This would be a most precious prize to the cautious men in Beijing, one they
would give dearly to achieve. After all, our relationship with Taiwan, as r
evised in 1979, is a vestige of the cold war.
Today, America has little strategic interest in Taiwan, which is gradually i
ntegrating with China economically by investing in and forming joint venture
s with mainland Chinese firms. The island’s absorption into mainland China
is inevitable.
But the status quo is dangerous; if Taiwanese nationalist politicians decide
d to declare independence or if Beijing’s hawks tired of waiting for integr
ation and moved to take Taiwan by force, America could suddenly be drawn int
o a multitrillion-dollar war.
There will be “China hawks” who denounce any deal on Taiwan as American ca
pitulation, but their fear of a Red China menacing Asia is anachronistic. Po
rtraying the United States as a democratic Athens threatened by China’s aut
ocratic Sparta makes for sensational imagery, but nothing could be further f
rom reality.
The battle today is between competing balance sheets, and it is fought in bo
ard rooms; it is not a geopolitical struggle to militarily or ideologically
“dominate” the Pacific.
In fact, China and the United States have interlocking economic interests. C
hina’s greatest military asset is actually the United States Navy, which ke
eps the sea lanes safe for China’s resources and products to flow freely.
China would want a deal on Taiwan for several reasons. First, Taiwan is Beij
ing’s unspoken but hard-to-hide top priority for symbolic and strategic rea
sons; only access to water and energy mean more to Chinese leaders.
Second, a deal would open a clearer path for the gradual, orderly integratio
n of Taiwan into China.
Third, it would undermine hard-line militarists who use the Taiwan issue to
stoke nationalist flames, sideline pro-Western technocrats and extract large
r military budgets. And finally, it would save China the considerable sums i
t has been spending on a vast military buildup.
Jeffrey Lewis, an East Asia expert at the Monterey Institute of Internationa
l Studies, estimated that one-fourth to one-third of China’s defense spendi
ng goes to forces in the vicinity of Taiwan — at a cost of $30 billion to $
50 billion a year. A deal for the resolution of Taiwan’s status could save
China $500 billion in defense spending by 2020 and allow Beijing to break ev
en by 2030, while reducing America’s debt and serving our broader economic
interests.
The Chinese leadership would be startled — for a change — if the United St
ates were to adopt such a savvy negotiating posture. Beyond reducing our deb
t, a Taiwan deal could pressure Beijing to end its political and economic su
pport for pariah states like Iran, North Korea and Syria and to exert a mode
rating influence over an unstable Pakistan. It would be a game changer.
The deal would eliminate almost 10 percent of our national debt without rais
ing taxes or cutting spending; it would redirect American foreign policy awa
y from dated cold-war-era entanglements and toward our contemporary economic
and strategic interests; and it would eliminate the risk of involvement in
a costly war with China.
Critics will call this proposal impractical, even absurd. They will say it d
oesn’t have a prayer of passing Congress, and doesn’t acknowledge politica
l realities. They might be right — today.
But by pursuing this agenda, Mr. Obama would change the calculus and politic
al reality. And Congress should see a deal with China as an opportunity to m
ake itself credible again.
Debt is not in itself bad, when managed, but today’s unsustainable debt wil
l suffocate our economy, our democracy and our children’s futures.
By tackling the issue of Taiwan, Mr. Obama could address much of what ails h
im today, sending a message of bold foreign policy thinking and fiscal respo
nsibility that would benefit every citizen and be understood by every voter.
Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellow at the Harvard Kennedy
School, is a Marine who served in Iraq.
A version of this op-ed appeared in print on November 11, 2011, on page A35
of the New York edition with the headline: To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan
. | p****y
发帖数: 23737 | 2 大家看了这个新闻没有？中国政府不会笨到考虑美国这种提议吧？
There are dozens of initiatives President Obama could undertake to strengthe
n our economic security. Here is one: He should enter into closed-door negot
iations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion of American deb
t currently held by China in exchange for a deal to end American military as
sistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminate the current United States-Ta
iwan defense arrangement by 2015.
course,
th
m
of
ma
la
【在 p****y 的大作中提到】
: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/opinion/to-save-our-economy-d
: tml?_r=1&hp
: WITH a single bold act, President Obama could correct the country’s course,
: help assure his re-election, and preserve our children’s future.
: He needs to redefine America’s mindset about national security away from th
: e old defense mentality that American power derives predominantly from our m
: ilitary might, rather than from the strength, agility and competitiveness of
: our economy. He should make it clear that today American jobs and wealth ma
: tter more than military prowess.
: As Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared la
| p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 3 美國的債務問題被誇大了。而且減免債務根本不會救經濟。現在美國要做的是刺激需求
，多發票子。這樣也起到降低債務的效果。
strengthe
negot
deb
as
Ta
【在 p****y 的大作中提到】
: 大家看了这个新闻没有？中国政府不会笨到考虑美国这种提议吧？
: There are dozens of initiatives President Obama could undertake to strengthe
: n our economic security. Here is one: He should enter into closed-door negot
: iations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion of American deb
: t currently held by China in exchange for a deal to end American military as
: sistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminate the current United States-Ta
: iwan defense arrangement by 2015.
:
: course,
: th
|
|
