b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 1 IMP双无，西家发牌，你坐南主打4S。叫牌过程：
W N E S
P P P 1NT
P 2C P 2S
P 4S AP
Q 4 3 2
8 6 4
K Q
K J 9 8
K 10 6 5
A J
J 6 2
A Q 10 2
西家首攻ＨＫ，你准备怎么做庄？ | m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 2 好像关键是要把将牌打对了. 只能掉一顿.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双无，西家发牌，你坐南主打4S。叫牌过程：
: W N E S
: P P P 1NT
: P 2C P 2S
: P 4S AP
: Q 4 3 2
: 8 6 4
: K Q
: K J 9 8
: K 10 6 5
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 3 As mapcar says, the goal is to avoid 2 trump losers. The percentage play
is to finesse with ST, if there is no any clue. Here we can win HA, and
force out DA. If east has DA, we play trump as planned.
In case west has DA, plus shown HKQ, we can locate SA in east. Then the
trump play will be different. We will play small to K, then to Q, playing
small if SJ doesn't show up. Comparing to hook SJ from east, we will
succeed when east has AX and AXX, which have 3 and 3 combinations
respectively, total of 6. And we fail when east holds AJX, which has 3
combinations. | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 4 掉两墩也不要紧，下一而已。
【在 m****r 的大作中提到】
: 好像关键是要把将牌打对了. 只能掉一顿.
| m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 5 确实如此. 我想一想有什么最保险的下一的打法.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: 掉两墩也不要紧，下一而已。
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 6 This line is only good in theory that opps don't find the good lead or
switch. Whenever opps clubs are 4-1, they may switch to C after DA and later
get a ruff to beat you. This probability may lead your testing play in D
very expensive.
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: As mapcar says, the goal is to avoid 2 trump losers. The percentage play
: is to finesse with ST, if there is no any clue. Here we can win HA, and
: force out DA. If east has DA, we play trump as planned.
: In case west has DA, plus shown HKQ, we can locate SA in east. Then the
: trump play will be different. We will play small to K, then to Q, playing
: small if SJ doesn't show up. Comparing to hook SJ from east, we will
: succeed when east has AX and AXX, which have 3 and 3 combinations
: respectively, total of 6. And we fail when east holds AJX, which has 3
: combinations.
| M****H
发帖数: 98 | 7 还是先试 D, 然后 将牌躲 A, 飞J 并用。 | v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 8 假设将牌23分
直接飞成功率50%
先试有68%(C23分)*50%(DA在西)可能把成功率提到70%，但有32%(C不均分)*50%(SA在长
C一家)可能被将失败。
综合看，试D收益期望6.8%，损失期望16%.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双无，西家发牌，你坐南主打4S。叫牌过程：
: W N E S
: P P P 1NT
: P 2C P 2S
: P 4S AP
: Q 4 3 2
: 8 6 4
: K Q
: K J 9 8
: K 10 6 5
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 9 假设将牌23分
直接飞成功率50%
先试有68%(C23分)*50%(DA在西)可能把成功率提到70%，但有32%(C不均分)*50%(SA在长
C一家)可能被将失败。
综合看，试D收益期望6.8%，损失期望16%.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双无，西家发牌，你坐南主打4S。叫牌过程：
: W N E S
: P P P 1NT
: P 2C P 2S
: P 4S AP
: Q 4 3 2
: 8 6 4
: K Q
: K J 9 8
: K 10 6 5
| m****r
发帖数: 6639 | 10 wow.
我还是凭直觉, 不try D吧.
被将概率中有一半(DA在W)可能会提高打法成功率.
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: 假设将牌23分
: 直接飞成功率50%
: 先试有68%(C23分)*50%(DA在西)可能把成功率提到70%，但有32%(C不均分)*50%(SA在长
: C一家)可能被将失败。
: 综合看，试D收益期望6.8%，损失期望16%.
| | | v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 11 Actually, according to posterior probability, The probability for West to
have DA should be much less than 50%. Almost nothing can be find by D testing.
被将概率中有一半(DA在W)可能会提高打法成功率.
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: 假设将牌23分
: 直接飞成功率50%
: 先试有68%(C23分)*50%(DA在西)可能把成功率提到70%，但有32%(C不均分)*50%(SA在长
: C一家)可能被将失败。
: 综合看，试D收益期望6.8%，损失期望16%.
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 12 如果没有任何线索，一定是飞SJ最佳吗？
假定将牌3-2分布（否则做不成）：
1) 从明手出小黑桃手中１０飞过（除非东家放Ｊ，你盖Ｋ），成功的情况有：东家AJx
(3 cases),AJ(1 case),Jx(3 cases),Jxx(3 cases)，共计10 cases.
2) 从明手出小黑桃手中打Ｋ，赢的话下一轮两手出小（除非西家第二轮放Ｊ，你明手
盖Ｑ）；ＳＫ输给西家的话你下一轮用ＳＱ砸：成功情况为，东家Ax(3 cases),Axx(3
cases),AJ(1 case),Jx(3 cases),xxx(1 case)，共计11 cases.
直接往手里打Ｋ反而略胜一筹。～～
不过，以上的分析有个小小的疏失，谁能抢答正确，包子奖励。 | v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 13 for finess, we should small to Q first, which will success for xxx(E),too.
totally 11 case for (1).
AJx
3
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: 如果没有任何线索，一定是飞SJ最佳吗？
: 假定将牌3-2分布（否则做不成）：
: 1) 从明手出小黑桃手中１０飞过（除非东家放Ｊ，你盖Ｋ），成功的情况有：东家AJx
: (3 cases),AJ(1 case),Jx(3 cases),Jxx(3 cases)，共计10 cases.
: 2) 从明手出小黑桃手中打Ｋ，赢的话下一轮两手出小（除非西家第二轮放Ｊ，你明手
: 盖Ｑ）；ＳＫ输给西家的话你下一轮用ＳＱ砸：成功情况为，东家Ax(3 cases),Axx(3
: cases),AJ(1 case),Jx(3 cases),xxx(1 case)，共计11 cases.
: 直接往手里打Ｋ反而略胜一筹。～～
: 不过，以上的分析有个小小的疏失，谁能抢答正确，包子奖励。
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 14 Yeah, it seems the chances for small to Q and small to K are the same. That
sounds against my feeling. Then it won't give any good to test D with risk
of club ruff.
Since west shows HKQ, and he has some chance to hold DA, so the chance for
him to hold SA is less than 50%. This favors the play of small to K. But
since we win the first trick in hand, and there is no good entry to dummy,
it seems it is better to play small to Q immediately. If Q wins, we know how
to play. If it loses, the chance is similar to hook and to drop SJ
according to above analysis.
This is also the play without any extra thinking, so it is probably wrong.
Otherwise why is this hand shown here :)
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: for finess, we should small to Q first, which will success for xxx(E),too.
: totally 11 case for (1).
:
: AJx
: 3
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 15 The other question is how to reach dummy before small to K.
I think the natural way is the best way. Since we win HA in hand first, just
small to Q. If HA is in dummy, small to K.
That
how
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Yeah, it seems the chances for small to Q and small to K are the same. That
: sounds against my feeling. Then it won't give any good to test D with risk
: of club ruff.
: Since west shows HKQ, and he has some chance to hold DA, so the chance for
: him to hold SA is less than 50%. This favors the play of small to K. But
: since we win the first trick in hand, and there is no good entry to dummy,
: it seems it is better to play small to Q immediately. If Q wins, we know how
: to play. If it loses, the chance is similar to hook and to drop SJ
: according to above analysis.
: This is also the play without any extra thinking, so it is probably wrong.
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 16 No, you should still take the S finesse if SQ wins.
In my opinion, S to K or S to Q are close. S to Q is better
because you may go down less when east holds SAJxx, which is more likely
than west to hold them because that would give west 10 HCPs and fail to
overcall. Also when some player leads honor connection (or long suit)
instead of shortness in side suits, he is more likely to hold trump
shortness. Also, you have to play D or C to enter dummy if you want to play S to SK, which would increase your chances to lose a ruff in C.
That
how
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Yeah, it seems the chances for small to Q and small to K are the same. That
: sounds against my feeling. Then it won't give any good to test D with risk
: of club ruff.
: Since west shows HKQ, and he has some chance to hold DA, so the chance for
: him to hold SA is less than 50%. This favors the play of small to K. But
: since we win the first trick in hand, and there is no good entry to dummy,
: it seems it is better to play small to Q immediately. If Q wins, we know how
: to play. If it loses, the chance is similar to hook and to drop SJ
: according to above analysis.
: This is also the play without any extra thinking, so it is probably wrong.
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 17 Did you mean if SQ loses?
If SQ wins, everyone will take finesse I assume.
The strange thing against my feeling is that if SQ loses, the chances to
finesse and drop seem the same.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: No, you should still take the S finesse if SQ wins.
: In my opinion, S to K or S to Q are close. S to Q is better
: because you may go down less when east holds SAJxx, which is more likely
: than west to hold them because that would give west 10 HCPs and fail to
: overcall. Also when some player leads honor connection (or long suit)
: instead of shortness in side suits, he is more likely to hold trump
: shortness. Also, you have to play D or C to enter dummy if you want to play S to SK, which would increase your chances to lose a ruff in C.
:
: That
: how
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 18 You are right, 11 cases for (1) as well.
So are we saying that (1) and (2) have same chance of success? :-)
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: for finess, we should small to Q first, which will success for xxx(E),too.
: totally 11 case for (1).
:
: AJx
: 3
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 19 原始概率应该是这样了吧，如果考虑小牌限制选择的后验概率，还得算算。。。
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: You are right, 11 cases for (1) as well.
: So are we saying that (1) and (2) have same chance of success? :-)
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 20 如果直接清将，当然应该打小到Q，机会大不少。
其一，西单张A落下，你仍有机会。东单张A，总是宕了。
更重要的是，你打小到K，西Axx，不一定出A。因为你下面的打法
与他出不出A有关系，所以还存在猜断。
而打小到Q，再出小到10，则没有这个问题。
我认为探查打法还是要更好些，西如果草花单张，他多半已经首攻草花。
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: IMP双无，西家发牌，你坐南主打4S。叫牌过程：
: W N E S
: P P P 1NT
: P 2C P 2S
: P 4S AP
: Q 4 3 2
: 8 6 4
: K Q
: K J 9 8
: K 10 6 5
| | | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 21 完全正确！理论上说，西家有Axx，你打小到手里K，忍让是标准打法（在明手为Qxxx的
情况下），高水平比赛里几乎是mandatory。实战中自然跟对手水平和状况有关，普通
牌手懂得忍让的可能不多，但综合来说，打小到Q再飞10，是相对大概率的打法。前提
当然是没有其它线索可循。
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: 如果直接清将，当然应该打小到Q，机会大不少。
: 其一，西单张A落下，你仍有机会。东单张A，总是宕了。
: 更重要的是，你打小到K，西Axx，不一定出A。因为你下面的打法
: 与他出不出A有关系，所以还存在猜断。
: 而打小到Q，再出小到10，则没有这个问题。
: 我认为探查打法还是要更好些，西如果草花单张，他多半已经首攻草花。
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 22 我的想法也是这样。先动方块，需要担心的lose-case其实只有一种，就是东家持DA及
单张梅花。这种情况下你的将牌打法跟原始概率打法没啥区别，却多了一个被将吃的可
能。
但是这个冒险是值得的。首先，如果西家持DA，那么SA必在东家手中，而且这种情况下
对方将吃梅花几乎不可能。也就是说这时候先打方块可以大幅提高做庄成功率。在将牌
3-2的情况下，如果已知右手方持SA，那么出小将牌到手里SK大概有70%成功率，飞SJ的
成功率只有40%。相比之下，东家单张梅花的概率本身只有8%左右，而且必须东家同时
有DA，才可能对庄家造成伤害。
总的来说，做庄的路线和概率，经常随着对方的牌张分布而变化。在相对安全的情况下
，如果能够探知对方的实力分布，将会帮助庄家实现成功概率的最大话。
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: 如果直接清将，当然应该打小到Q，机会大不少。
: 其一，西单张A落下，你仍有机会。东单张A，总是宕了。
: 更重要的是，你打小到K，西Axx，不一定出A。因为你下面的打法
: 与他出不出A有关系，所以还存在猜断。
: 而打小到Q，再出小到10，则没有这个问题。
: 我认为探查打法还是要更好些，西如果草花单张，他多半已经首攻草花。
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 23 从打法上来说，我觉得第一墩红心忍让也是值得考虑的。如果西家续攻红心，你吃住之
后通过打方块探查，成功机会将更大；即便东家有DA和单张梅花，如果同时还有SA的话
，对你一样没有损害。但是忍让红心的问题是，你的红心恰好是AJ，如果你出J，标明
没有红心失张了，西家第二墩可能从双张梅花里转攻，这样你就不敢打方块，得不偿失
。如果红心是Ax，忍让第一墩就是正确的，可以说是个先见的剪刀战术。 | p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 24 Not really, as long as C is 4-1, you have a problem, because west can keep
HQ as an entry even if west holds DA.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: 我的想法也是这样。先动方块，需要担心的lose-case其实只有一种，就是东家持DA及
: 单张梅花。这种情况下你的将牌打法跟原始概率打法没啥区别，却多了一个被将吃的可
: 能。
: 但是这个冒险是值得的。首先，如果西家持DA，那么SA必在东家手中，而且这种情况下
: 对方将吃梅花几乎不可能。也就是说这时候先打方块可以大幅提高做庄成功率。在将牌
: 3-2的情况下，如果已知右手方持SA，那么出小将牌到手里SK大概有70%成功率，飞SJ的
: 成功率只有40%。相比之下，东家单张梅花的概率本身只有8%左右，而且必须东家同时
: 有DA，才可能对庄家造成伤害。
: 总的来说，做庄的路线和概率，经常随着对方的牌张分布而变化。在相对安全的情况下
: ，如果能够探知对方的实力分布，将会帮助庄家实现成功概率的最大话。
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 25 If west has DA, I don't worry about club 4-1. First of all, west may not
find club shift from 4 small clubs. More importantly, if west has DA, the
play to finesse SJ is a losing line. To play diamonds first, it specifically
caters to the case where west holds DA, it actually gains a lot (close to
30%) whenever west has DA, it loses a little (about 8% chance) when east has
DA (only in that case does club 4-1 matters).
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: Not really, as long as C is 4-1, you have a problem, because west can keep
: HQ as an entry even if west holds DA.
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 26 you will never be sure that finesse ST is a losing one even if west holds DA
, because that would give west 10 HCPs, and he would act with10 HCPs a lot
of times with some kind of distributions. And I don't buy the theory that it
is difficult for west to find C switch. It is a very natural switch once
his partner discouraged in H. You would almost surely go down whenever C is
4-1, that would seriously hurt your line. And 4-1 break is about 28%. I was
indeed shocked to see some number like 8%.
specifically
has
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: If west has DA, I don't worry about club 4-1. First of all, west may not
: find club shift from 4 small clubs. More importantly, if west has DA, the
: play to finesse SJ is a losing line. To play diamonds first, it specifically
: caters to the case where west holds DA, it actually gains a lot (close to
: 30%) whenever west has DA, it loses a little (about 8% chance) when east has
: DA (only in that case does club 4-1 matters).
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 27 No one said finessing S10 is surely wrong. But when west holds DA, it only
has 40% chance of success comparing with 70% if you play to SK. Given the
possibility of club ruff, that 70% chance has to be reduced, but not to the
extent of outweighing the benefit. You are right, 4-1 break is 28%, so the
chance of ruff is about 14%, not 8%.
DA
it
is
was
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: you will never be sure that finesse ST is a losing one even if west holds DA
: , because that would give west 10 HCPs, and he would act with10 HCPs a lot
: of times with some kind of distributions. And I don't buy the theory that it
: is difficult for west to find C switch. It is a very natural switch once
: his partner discouraged in H. You would almost surely go down whenever C is
: 4-1, that would seriously hurt your line. And 4-1 break is about 28%. I was
: indeed shocked to see some number like 8%.
:
: specifically
: has
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 28 若西单张将A，将牌怕是要失控了吧
【在 a****s 的大作中提到】
: 如果直接清将，当然应该打小到Q，机会大不少。
: 其一，西单张A落下，你仍有机会。东单张A，总是宕了。
: 更重要的是，你打小到K，西Axx，不一定出A。因为你下面的打法
: 与他出不出A有关系，所以还存在猜断。
: 而打小到Q，再出小到10，则没有这个问题。
: 我认为探查打法还是要更好些，西如果草花单张，他多半已经首攻草花。
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 29 No, your chance get ruffed is slightly below 28%, not 14%.
Suppose west holds DA, he has no HJ and partner discouraged H, if he holds
stiff C or 4 clubs, his realistic chance to beat it is to return C.
Suppose east holds DA, he has stiff C, he would return C here and look for a
ruff.
Suppose east holds DA and 4 low clubs, he may not find the C switch, but
after he returns the correct current count of H, his partner would return
stiff C and get a ruff later if east holds SA.
Also, the you may improve your chance in trump play only when west holds DA.
So even if your estimation of 30% is correct, it is only roughly half of
the chance that west may hold DA(actually even less, because that gives west
already 9 HCPs, with many 9 HCPS, west may bid something). So that would
improve the chance at best about 15% and you take the risk of slightly less
than 28% to get the ruff. That's why I said, it is simply not a sound line
to play this way.
the
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: No one said finessing S10 is surely wrong. But when west holds DA, it only
: has 40% chance of success comparing with 70% if you play to SK. Given the
: possibility of club ruff, that 70% chance has to be reduced, but not to the
: extent of outweighing the benefit. You are right, 4-1 break is 28%, so the
: chance of ruff is about 14%, not 8%.
:
: DA
: it
: is
: was
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 30 I am assuming west doesn't have singleton club since he did't lead one, that
's why I give it 14%.
a
DA.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: No, your chance get ruffed is slightly below 28%, not 14%.
: Suppose west holds DA, he has no HJ and partner discouraged H, if he holds
: stiff C or 4 clubs, his realistic chance to beat it is to return C.
: Suppose east holds DA, he has stiff C, he would return C here and look for a
: ruff.
: Suppose east holds DA and 4 low clubs, he may not find the C switch, but
: after he returns the correct current count of H, his partner would return
: stiff C and get a ruff later if east holds SA.
: Also, the you may improve your chance in trump play only when west holds DA.
: So even if your estimation of 30% is correct, it is only roughly half of
| | | b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 31 总是假设将牌3-2分布了，西家单张SA的话本来就做不成。
【在 v**********e 的大作中提到】
: 若西单张将A，将牌怕是要失控了吧
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 32 That's not a solid assumption because west need to develop some tricks in H
as well.
that
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: I am assuming west doesn't have singleton club since he did't lead one, that
: 's why I give it 14%.
:
: a
: DA.
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 33 这副牌将牌很有问题,先动D有将牌升级的风险,况且西拿DA的概率大约也就1/3.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: 总是假设将牌3-2分布了，西家单张SA的话本来就做不成。
| z******6
发帖数: 344 | |
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