l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | 1 The inverted yield curve has set off alarm bells that a recession may loom
around the corner. Historically, that's been a good bet, and recessions
almost always unleash bear markets for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
But this yield-curve inversion, which may be short-lived, looks different.
While it raises some concern about the long-term economic outlook, the
recent inverted yield curve actually is welcome in the near term.
"We may actually have seen a rather unique occurrence: the Fed actu... 阅读全帖 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 2 http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/a
This morning the 10-year US Treasury (^AXTEN) note yield hit an all-time low
. Despite all-time lows in yields, investors can’t seem to get enough bonds
. Investing in bonds now bears similarities to investing in stocks 12 years
ago or real estate six years ago.
From 1925 (when monthly data starts) to December 2010, the lowest monthly
close for the 10-year bond was 1.98%. This occurred in July and October 1941
. Bonds then proceed... 阅读全帖 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 HardTimeCall 俱乐部 】
发信人: XXLBass (大巴司机), 信区: HardTimeCall
标 题: What Happens When Bond Yields Are Lower Than the Inflation Rate?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 8 23:30:01 2012, 美东)
By James Debevec Jul 06, 2012 11:45 am
Bond yields predict disinflation.
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Not long ago bond yields were lower than the inflation
rate. There were a number of articles commenting on the phenomenon. A common
piece of advice in many of these articles was to invest in commodities. The
basic logic wa... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****r
发帖数: 2123 | 4 For stock market investors, an inverted yield curve is a sign that equities
could peak before an economic recession hits. It also can be a precursor to
a bear market in stocks, where equities fall 20% or more from highs.
While an inverted yield curve has been a reliable indicator of slowing U.S.
economies, the timing of an upcoming recession has been uncertain.
Historically, prolonged "curve inversions" have usually preceded major
economic slowdowns by about a year.
What Is An Inverted Yield Cur... 阅读全帖 |
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w****j
发帖数: 6262 | 5 别理他们，他们都逗你玩呢。
我来给你解释bond的yield吧。
一只bond，未来有cash flow，平时半年发一次coupon，到期还本金。当前bond交易的
价格就是将未来的cash flow都折合到今天。这个yield就是这个折合率。
也许5%，也许7%，也许10%。一般这个折合的比率都要高于risk-free interest rate，
因为这个折合率里含有风险的因素，有可能bond最后default了。
所以yield越高，bond的价格越低。也就相当于你如果今天花钱买了这支bond，假如运
气好，没有遇到default，你的收益率就是这个yield。
至于yield一般而言随着maturity越长，yield越大，也很好理解，你到期时间越长，
default风险越大，所以yield也会越高。当然这个不一定，还和长期利率短期利率有关。
总之高风险，高回报。yield高说明回报高，也说明风险大。越是垃圾bond，yield越高
。美联储的treasury bond基本是risk free的，所以yield最低。 |
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b******r
发帖数: 1619 | 6 From the lofty peak of near 3%, it may be hard to imagine the 10-year
Treasury 10_YEAR -0.90% yield taking a 90 basis point dive, but don’t
count out the believers. HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research,
Steven Major, says the 10-year yield is poised to hit 2.1% by the third
quarter of this year, and he outlines that contrarian call in a 2014 outlook.
10-year Treasury yield
Most expect yields to rise and prices to fall because of improving economic
data, which suggests that the Federal R... 阅读全帖 |
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n******7
发帖数: 12463 | 7 昨天看了几个帖子
感觉有些事情，自己小心再小心，尽量保守，可以解，左转撞车贴
或者小心也无解，比如小留逆向超车贴
这都还好，不用纠结
有些情况就比较纠结了，比如
前段时间上高速，两条ramp，另一条ramp上有yield标记
MB的一辆红色MB SUV就那么直挺挺的冲过来，一点没有要yield意思，
我后面一串车，我总不能急刹车让它吧？
插在我后面进来了
我后面还有几辆车，也就是说，它根本没有yeild
上去了来超过来看我，我真后悔没给个中指
年轻亚裔，不知道是不是小留
单独发出来是因为我想了一下，很纠结：
1. 如果两车一起挤进来，是很危险的
2. 对方的意图不是很好判断，yield也就一脚刹车的事情
我不能一看对面来车不停，我就刹车让他，这样就成了我yeild他了
我后面的车会confused，如果对面司机知道yield，也会confused
我想起几年前版上就有一个这样的帖子，自己开车上高速，不知道yield，直接冲上去
。结果对方一个suv不得不紧急换lane。对方怒了，在高速上各种卡车，op吓尿了。
有没有比较好的方案？
LD经常开这段路，说经常遇到不yield的 |
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y****i
发帖数: 778 | 8 The coupon rate is higher than yield rate in the first case. The issuer will
pay you more than 2%, say 3-4% interest every year. Yield = coupon / your
purchase price if you do not consider compound interest.
No. The new issued bond yield is always based on daily market, so you can
not find a deal if the whole market is moving up. You need to spend more
time in secondary market and choose the one whose ask price is lower than
3rd party price and not because of downgrade. Because muni bond liquid... 阅读全帖 |
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a******n
发帖数: 5925 | 9 考试书上抄来的
What yield() is supposed to do is
make the currently running thread head back to runnable to allow other
threads of
the same priority to get their turn. So the intention is to use yield() to
promote
graceful turn-taking among equal-priority threads. In reality, though, the
yield()
method isn't guaranteed to do what it claims, and even if yield() does cause
a
thread to step out of running and back to runnable, there's no guarantee the
yielding
thread won't just be chosen again over all th... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 10 发信人: coldface (送你一朵红玫瑰), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 大牛们，周末给指导指导
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 25 20:06:56 2010, 美东)
感谢这两个图。可以肯定你已研究过，并有自己的想法。我先说一点，望其他人补充。
通常10yr bond yield与sp500正关联，这如第一张图所示。至于谁是driving，谁是
driven, 就难说了。
通常(10yr-2yr)spread与sp500反关联，这如第二张图所示。因为当股市跌时，为避险
躲入短期bonds，从而压低其yield，而长期bonds相对稳定。
2010年4月至今这段，yield降低，spread不升高, 却反常降低。这是令人感兴趣之处。
10yr bond yield 历史平均 4%，现已3%以下. 个人认为下降空间有限。(当然凡是皆有
例外，70年代，30yr bond, 20% yield 无人买, 后来证明没有比它好的投资. 也许将
来2%yield 10yrbond 买不到。)
第二张图2010年4月至今这段，spread降低, 不能完全如以往视 |
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t****e
发帖数: 129 | 11 GEON CO DEB 7.50000% 12/15/2015
Coupon: 7.500
Maturity Date: 12/15/2015
Moody's Rating: BAA2
S&P Rating: BBB-
Bid: Yield: 1.986 Price 106.933 Qty(min): 100(10)
Ask: Price: 107.440 Qty(min): 260(1) Yield to Worst: 1.604;
Yield to Maturity: 1.604
我计算不出这个Yield to Maturity怎么来的？
我现在买这个bond，hold on to maturity.
中间coupon会有3次吧，12/15/2014, 6/15/2015, 12/15/2015，
计算出的yield to maturity比1.604大。 |
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d******e
发帖数: 2265 | 12 python的 yield花样很多。
你可以yield n
也可以
n = （yield）
还可以yield from a_list
本质上还是coroutine.
scala的yield不太了解只会用。 |
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t**l
发帖数: 109 | 13 我的建议是下次用2%或者5%的input。
做TF的CHIP本身就是很难。你的TFbinding确实很低，所以你需要做一个IgG control,
或者NO AB CONTROL。
还有你现在这种比较方法不是很科学，因为你在比较2个SAMPLE出来的DNA。 每个
SAMPLE 的handling都会造成很大的误差，所以你需要normalize到一个control DNA
region.
1/9*1/(2^6)
which is extremely low.
这个数值你现在show的其实没有任何意义，你这个数值如果跟SAMPLE B比较，其实很高
，但是不能证明这个TF就bind这个地方。
你需要screen其他的region在SAMPLE A里面, 如果你其他的region出来的都是1/9*1/(2
^6) 这个值，那么说明你这个值没有任何意义。
CHIP绝对值的YIELD比较没有什么意义，不同人做CHIP的方法不同，你可以用histone
H3 antibody做个CHIP，看看yield。
最完美的CHIP是这种
有IGG control,有KO CELL LINE contro... 阅读全帖 |
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r******o
发帖数: 1530 | 14 Looks like I'm really bored these days...
============
lol, fun question, I see where you are coming from. The following
discussion ignores default risk.
A lot of people, don't fully understand what's yield, yield usually refers
to Yield 'to Maturity', that's, you have to hold your position to maturity
to realize the yield. And the fundamental assumption is that, all your
coupon payments will be reinvested at the same yield in the future, again,
to maturity (forget about whether you can reinve |
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g****o
发帖数: 547 | 15 路口有没有这个标志有什么区别呢？
我怎么觉得所有路口都一样？
圆盘状的绿灯亮可以左转但必须yeild。左箭头绿灯亮，不必yield直接转。
难道是没有left turn yield on green标志的地方，圆盘绿灯不能左转，箭头绿灯亮才
行？
还是没有left turn yield on green标志的地方，不必yield，绿灯直接左转。
感觉都不大对啊... |
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g*****1
发帖数: 117 | 16 刚才在学校里开车到一个yield sigh， 我车速也很低，大概也就20左右，我的车道是
并入另外一个道。我开到yield sigh 停了一下，看直行的车没反应就开过去了，后面
警察就亮灯，（警察就在那地方猫着）靠边说我failure to yield。拿了驾照就给开
uniform traffic citation，要我3天内打county电话，单子上写14天内上庭，我在GA,
ATLANTA
第一次收到要上庭，不知道怎么办
我承认，我当时在yield sigh停的时间短很短，看对面车停着没走就走了，
这个上庭要准备啥？ 关键要罚多少啊？穷学生一个
多谢各位 |
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g*****1
发帖数: 117 | 17 yield sign
单子上写的是failure to yield sign
我是从侧道岔开的分道并入直行道， 并入口有个yield sign
直行的灯应该是黄灯，我看到直行的车没走我才走的，主要是我yield的时间挺短，我
踩了下刹车，而且车速最多也就20多 |
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q****x
发帖数: 7404 | 18 "In this prolonged low-rate environment, we continue to see investors turn
to high-yielding alternatives—including money market fund holders moving to
bond funds, U.S. Treasury bond fund holders moving to high-yield corporate
funds, and bond fund holders moving to dividend-paying stock funds. And we'
ve cautioned investors accordingly about reaching for yield," said Vanguard
CEO Bill McNabb.
"The flows into the High-Yield Corporate Fund have been particularly acute,
so we're taking these proacti... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******t
发帖数: 97 | 19 我看到一些new bond, expected yield是2.0%,但是expected coupon是4.0%。这是不是
说对于$100的bond,每年有$4的coupon,等到mature了以后还给你的是$102?
那么对于secondary market上的bond, ask yield是怎么计算的呢？我看到有recent
trade是$122, coupon是5.75%的bond, ask yield是1.44.不是很明白。 |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 20 Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set
long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5-
year ARMs, e.g.) are pegged to shorter-term securities. So when bond yields
drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well (see historical
graph below). Conversely, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a
lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will
likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value |
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y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 21 STOCKS AND BOND YIELDS MOVE TOGETHER... Last week (August 18) I wrote about
one of the side-effects of a deflationary environment being the positive
correlation between stock prices and Treasury bond yields. In other words,
Treasury yields and stock prices trend in the same direction. Chart 1, for
example, shows the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (green line) and the S
&P 500 (black bars) peaking together during 2007 and falling together until
the end of 2008. Both have risen during 2009. No |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 22 http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/01/11/for-the-first-time-e
So this turns out to be a groundbreaking day for Treasury auctions.
Today’s $21 billion offering of 10-year notes got sold at a 1.9% yield,
under the prior record low of 2%, set in the September auction, and the 1.
909% yield the market expected before the sale.
The bid-to-cover ratio, a key gauge of overall demand, was 3.29, compared to
an average 3.09 of the previous eight sales.
The indirect bid, a proxy measure of foreign demand... 阅读全帖 |
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g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 23 这段时间债市voltatile挺高。SP可能只是被动的走。
U.S. stock index futures indicated a lower open Friday as overseas bond
yields hit fresh record lows.
Dow futures held around 100 points lower, while S&P and Nasdaq futures were
down 13 and 32 points, respectively.
Japanese government bonds rose, pushing he 10-year JGB yield 2 basis points
lower to minus 0.150 percent, after earlier setting a record low of minus 0.
155 percent.
British and German sovereign debt yields fell to record lows on jitters
ahead of about Br... 阅读全帖 |
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p********0
发帖数: 186 | 24 Thanks,
the original question is using model
r(t) = a_{0} + t*a_{1} + ... + t^4*a_{4} to do a regression.
We have 14 more data in the following years, like
8.25 2/15/2013 101.21875
8.75 2/15/2013 101.375
We should plot a estimated yield curve. Because yield curve is different
because of different coupon, then the yield means the 0 coupon yield curve I
should plot, correct? |
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x****c
发帖数: 25662 | 25
"也不确定到底是不是必须yield",
OMG, yield, always yield pedestrion in US. |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 26 “从一个高速转到另外一个高速的时候，上高速有个yield，LD和我都没有注意到，（
这个的确是我们的错，上高速有yield那种，应该是马上停下来的，但是以前开的都是
直接merge，ld经验太少了。我也没有驾照。。。就考过permit）直接就开出去了。”
“上高速有yield那种，应该是马上停下来的”是错误的
merge lane 要早看主车道情况。如果车特别密，要把速度降下来，也许不得不停车，
也许有人让你那么你要加速merge进去。如果不是车特别密，要加速merge入主车流 |
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g*****1
发帖数: 117 | 27 附件是图：
黄箭头是我第一次停住，等左转向灯（蓝直线）后，沿着蓝色箭头到红色箭头的位置，
红圈为yield sign，绿色箭头为执行车的等待位置等红绿灯，黄线为我面对的红绿灯，
在红色箭头处停了一秒左右踩得刹车，并入直行道，警察说此处yield sign处违规，意
思应该是我应该等直行的车。
说明：在黄箭头等绿灯（我是第一辆），等绿色左转灯（蓝直线所示）后到红箭头处，
此时面向的红绿灯（黄直线）应该是黄灯，那么直行的车面对的应该是红灯或者刚变绿
灯。我看直行车没动就并入直行道了，此处yield sign停较短
谢谢 |
|
g*****1
发帖数: 117 | 28 附件是图：
黄箭头是我第一次停住，等左转向灯（蓝直线）后，沿着蓝色箭头到红色箭头的位置，
红圈为yield sign，绿色箭头为执行车的等待位置等红绿灯，黄线为我面对的红绿灯，
在红色箭头处停了一秒左右踩得刹车，并入直行道，警察说此处yield sign处违规，意
思应该是我应该等直行的车。
说明：在黄箭头等绿灯（我是第一辆），等绿色左转灯（蓝直线所示）后到红箭头处，
此时面向的红绿灯（黄直线）应该是黄灯，那么直行的车面对的应该是红灯或者刚变绿
灯。我看直行车没动就并入直行道了，此处yield sign停较短
谢谢 |
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H*****u
发帖数: 1766 | 29 刚开始开车时，我经常路过的一个视野很差的入口也是这情况。我一直以为是相互
yield，每次也很小心；直到开了几十次之后我才搞清楚，应该只是我yield别人。
新手容易犯错，老手也会走神、不熟悉路，这种主次不明的高速lane不要死守着谁
yield谁，忍一时风平浪静。 |
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r***i
发帖数: 9780 | 30 stop让yield
yield一般不需要停车，除非特别需要
但是如果stop已经启动了，yield要让 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 31 GR0124015497 exp may 18 2011 yields at 21%(bid side)
GR0110021236 exp march 2012 yields at 26%(bid side)
GR0124011454 exp may 19 2010 best bid was 97.45 for a yields of 53%
~~~wow!
And Germany election in May.
Heard we need $100K cash to buy these bonds at fidelity. |
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y****i
发帖数: 778 | 32 1) No,等到mature了以后还给你的是$100, not $102. You need to pay premium when
the bond is issued, so the initial offering price is >$100.
Yield rate is the interest earned by the buyer on the bond purchased which
is expressed as a percentage of the total investment. Coupon rate is the
amount of interest derived every year, expressed as a percentage of the bond
's face value. Yield is the real return of the bond, coupon rate is only
based on face value, or say $100.
2) How many years are the bond? Most like... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******t
发帖数: 97 | 33 多谢。对于第一个问题，那么这个yield 2%是如何体现呢？比如我买$100的bond, 花了
$105. 5年以后除了每年的coupon dividend, 回到手的还是$100? 那2%的yield return
是会给你2%的利息吗？
对于第二个问题，看来secondary market的bond最后return并不是很高。是不是一般都
应该focus on new issued bond?
when
bond
but |
|
b**e
发帖数: 88 | 34 一般不推荐，因为bond即使high yield, 预期收益也不如股票。
如果你的投资目的是长期资本成长，比如二三十年后的退休，一般推荐以股票基金为主
，搭配高信用品质的债券作为风险缓冲。 比如 70% S&P 500 fund + 30% Total bond
market fund
如果是为了中短期资金保值升值，则应该以债券为主。
high yield bond的风险收益在债券和股票之间，属于非必要性资产。
特别是，如果你已经有股票投资，high yield bond与股票走势正相关，不能缓冲股市
波动的风险，所以意义不大。 |
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b**e
发帖数: 88 | 35 一般不推荐，因为bond即使high yield, 预期收益也不如股票。
如果你的投资目的是长期资本成长，比如二三十年后的退休，一般推荐以股票基金为主
，搭配高信用品质的债券作为风险缓冲。 比如 70% S&P 500 fund + 30% Total bond
market fund
如果是为了中短期资金保值升值，则应该以债券为主。
high yield bond的风险收益在债券和股票之间，属于非必要性资产。
特别是，如果你已经有股票投资，high yield bond与股票走势正相关，不能缓冲股市
波动的风险，所以意义不大。 |
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p*****r
发帖数: 595 | 36 Bloomberg
Mortgage-Bond Yields That Guide Loans Soar Most Since December
March 24, 2010, 6:06 PM EDT
By Jody Shenn
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage
securities jumped the most in almost four months as rates on benchmark U.S.
government notes soared after a record- tying Treasury auction, signaling
rising borrowing costs for new home loans.
Yields on Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage-backed
securities climbed 0.17 percentage point to 4.5 p |
|
t****y
发帖数: 3494 | 37 US 2Y Yield -11.26%
US 5Y Yield -7.02%
US 10Y Yield -2.33%
街上在拼命买bond，为啥呢，你懂的 |
|
P****8
发帖数: 678 | 38 为什么20年国债YIELD已经过了3%但是TLT的YIELD只有2.5? TLT不是20+ Year Treasury
Bond ETF吗，它的YIELD为什么比20+ Year Treasury Bond少这么多？ |
|
E***r
发帖数: 1037 | 39 主要是treasury yield要突破三十几年的下降通道了，倒不是绝对数值（当然整数点触
发机器卖盘是可能的）。现在像是几十年债市熊市的开始。
升息一定会造成yield curve flattening甚至倒挂，但从历史上看，从yield curve倒
挂到股市到顶往往还有相当长的时间。更何况现在2-year 10-year spread只是刚刚走
进50bps，离倒挂还有一段距离。 |
|
g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 40 问个问题，每次衰退前都有倒挂?
: 主要是treasury yield要突破三十几年的下降通道了，倒不是绝对数值（当然整
数点触
: 发机器卖盘是可能的）。现在像是几十年债市熊市的开始。
: 升息一定会造成yield curve flattening甚至倒挂，但从历史上看，从yield
curve倒
: 挂到股市到顶往往还有相当长的时间。更何况现在2-year 10-year spread只是
刚刚走
: 进50bps，离倒挂还有一段距离。
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发帖数: 1 | 41 https://www.barrons.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-51553272263
The Yield Curve Just Inverted. What Does That Mean?
All three major U.S. stock market indexes took a downturn on Friday, as
investors responded to one of the key recession indicators: the so-called
inversion of the yield curve between the 10-year and three-month Treasuries |
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f******o
发帖数: 2469 | 42 NVIDIA - GT300 yields are fine ...
By Hilbert Hagedoorn, September 26, 2009 - 8:59 PM
Guru3D.com ImageRecently a rumor on the web popped up that NVIDIA's yields
on the new GT300 chip are lower than 2%
GT300 is the new high-end DX11 class GPU that will empower their upcoming
graphics cards.
To put a leash on the rumor a senior manager from NVIDIA is now saying that
“Our (NVIDIA's) 40nm yields are fine. The rumors you are hearing are
baseless.”
The product manager unfortunately did not reveal what |
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l**********n
发帖数: 8443 | 43 scala和python都有yield. scala的yield和python的yield有区别吗？ |
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s*****r
发帖数: 59 | 44 given a yield curve, how to calculate a flat single yield from it ( a flat
yield curve). is it just geometric mean? if not, how? Thanks. |
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r****f
发帖数: 672 | 45 i reviewed a JOC paper
The author did many synthesis and had ~300 isolated yields (in addition to
another ~100 HPLC yields)
The author also did a lot of other work for mechanism studies.
i am not sure how long it took for him to finish the 300 isolated yields
nowaday it is so difficult for a chemistry student to get a phd degree |
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p********0
发帖数: 186 | 46 Once spot rate known,
r(t) = a_{0} +... a{4}*t^4
does the yield for different coupon/same maturity date always the same ? no
matter what's the coupon value.
Higher yield will cause higher bond price, but yield stay the same??? |
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p********0
发帖数: 186 | 47 Once spot rate known,
r(t) = a_{0} +... a{4}*t^4
does the yield for different coupon/same maturity date always the same ? no
matter what's the coupon value.
Higher yield will cause higher bond price, but yield stay the same??? |
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p********0
发帖数: 186 | 48 Once spot rate known,
r(t) = a_{0} +... a{4}*t^4
does the yield for different coupon/same maturity date always the same ? no
matter what's the coupon value.
Higher yield will cause higher bond price, but yield stay the same??? |
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h*******7
发帖数: 1481 | 50 yield curve如果预期变flat，并不一定就30年的yield变小，1年的变大，而只是1年和
30年的Yield 的Difference 变小。可以long 30年的，short 1年，但是还要看Carry
Cost，Coupon Rate 和 Repo Rate. |
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