b***k
发帖数: 2673 | 1 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
iambear (iambear) 于 (Wed Aug 29 00:34:09 2007) 提到:
我现在有一个资产的return和它的volatility,假设我分成N个regime(自己定义),那么
想知道现在我在哪个regime, 有多少概率stay,多少概率转换到其他regime上. 就是说
分成三步
1.确定regime 数
2.现在在哪
3.转换的概率
因为相同volatility的情况下,price可能上升也可能下降,所以想知道他们的概率
听上去像regime switching,我不是很懂它背后的理论,只知道有这么个模型,是不是就
是指我说的那种情况? 有MATLAB的code么? 我看了一下hamilton 那篇文章,几乎看不懂
...
先谢谢了!
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
robustness (二手的金融学家) 于 (Wed Aug 29 01:11:58 2007) 提到:
你这个属于regime switc |
|
b***k
发帖数: 2673 | 2 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
iambear (iambear) 于 (Wed Aug 29 00:34:09 2007) 提到:
我现在有一个资产的return和它的volatility,假设我分成N个regime(自己定义),那么
想知道现在我在哪个regime, 有多少概率stay,多少概率转换到其他regime上. 就是说
分成三步
1.确定regime 数
2.现在在哪
3.转换的概率
因为相同volatility的情况下,price可能上升也可能下降,所以想知道他们的概率
听上去像regime switching,我不是很懂它背后的理论,只知道有这么个模型,是不是就
是指我说的那种情况? 有MATLAB的code么? 我看了一下hamilton 那篇文章,几乎看不懂
...
先谢谢了!
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
robustness (二手的金融学家) 于 (Wed Aug 29 01:11:58 2007) 提到:
你这个属于regime switc |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 3 Regime Change: US’ Failing Weapon of International Deception
http://www.tanosborn.com/columns/2015/regime-change-us-failing-
For years, Winston Churchill’s famous quote, “It has been said that
democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have
been tried,” has served as Americans’ last word in any political
discussion which requires validation of the US government, no matter how
corrupt or flawed in its behavior, as the best in the planet, comparatively
or by default. Nev... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 4 【 以下文字转载自 Quant 讨论区 】
发信人: littletshirt (小仙鹤), 信区: Quant
标 题: regime switching in SAS or C/C++?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 9 13:23:04 2010, 美东)
Any experts experienced with regime switching model implemented in SAS or C/
C++?How to estimate regime switch model parameters in SAS? Or is there C/C++
code/library that does that? thanks. |
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 5 【 以下文字转载自 Quant 讨论区 】
发信人: littletshirt (小仙鹤), 信区: Quant
标 题: regime switching in SAS or C/C++?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 9 13:23:04 2010, 美东)
Any experts experienced with regime switching model implemented in SAS or C/
C++?How to estimate regime switch model parameters in SAS? Or is there C/C++
code/library that does that? thanks. |
|
w*****g
发帖数: 1503 | 6 The son of Libyan dictator Muammer Gaddafi, Seif Al-Islam, has told French
President Nicolas Sarkozy to return money that the Gaddafi regime allegedly
gave to finances the latter's presidential campaign in 2007.
In an interview for Euronews, Seif al-Islam called the President of France a
"clown" and threatened to reveal compromising secrets about Sarkozy.
The Gaddafi regime has been infuriated by the fact that France recognized
the government of the pro-democracy rebels in Eastern Libya, and est... 阅读全帖 |
|
z**********e
发帖数: 22064 | 7 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10808
Beijing's lack of faith in rule of Kim Jong-un exposed in contingency plans
to detain key North Korean leaders, set up border refugee camps and respond
to "foreign forces"
Documents drawn up by planners from China’s People’s Liberation Army that
were leaked to Japanese media include proposals for detaining key North
Korean leaders
Photo: Getty
By Julian Ryall, Tokyo
12:55PM BST 05 May 2014
China has drawn up detailed contingency pla... 阅读全帖 |
|
T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 8 老头轰炸叙利亚让 neocon 一下活跃起来， Haley 烙印是国安会常委, 现在没半农掣
肘， 国安会里一帮将军和情报头子，不定闹出什么妖娥子
United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley said Saturday that regime change in
Syria is one of the United States' priorities, adding that Syrian President
Bashar Assad "is not the leader" Syria needs.
In an interview on CNN's "State of the Union," Haley said ousting
Assad is a
priority for the U.S., as well as defeating the Islamic State and shrinking
Iranian influence.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/nikki-haley-syria-re... 阅读全帖 |
|
j**********i
发帖数: 3758 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 PoliticalScience 讨论区 】
发信人: jpostsildavi (ID), 信区: PoliticalScience
标 题: Regime change
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 28 19:12:34 2012, 美东)
布什总统常受人嘲笑的一句话就是Regime change。 Change什么呢？
当然，不是布什总统没脑筋，他只是传达了幕僚团和其他一些人的决策。
这些背后的人不会是没脑筋，至少是比绝大多数嘲笑的人有脑筋。
这边也一次又一次召开扩大会议。为什么要这么急切地传达“精神”呢？
因为决策层里一次又一次地遇到挫折，只好极限再加极限。害怕下面不领会。
那么毛是不是伟大领袖呢？他只了解中国历史。他爵位实在是外面给的。
但是毛精明，狡猾，狠得下心。如果马克思跟毛讲理论，第二天就开会，
然后就被挤出领导层。毛就是这样的人，但是毛看到马克思长的英俊，
即使悄悄地把马克思软禁起来，仍然会用马克思的头像去向女马列主义者
宣传理想。但是内部传达，谁接近马克思就杀谁的头。可见，中国历史对于
如何使用各种力量和控制各种人研究得比较... 阅读全帖 |
|
g***S
发帖数: 20 | 10 I know QRM's Regime Shift model, not sure it is same as regime switching or
not.
Basically let r1 and r2 be two short rate limit
when simulate short rate,
when r
when r>r2, use BK model
when between use square root model. |
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 11 Any experts experienced with regime switching model implemented in SAS or C/
C++?How to estimate regime switch model parameters in SAS? Or is there C/C++
code/library that does that? thanks. |
|
j**********i
发帖数: 3758 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 PoliticalScience 讨论区 】
发信人: jpostsildavi (ID), 信区: PoliticalScience
标 题: Regime change
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 28 19:12:34 2012, 美东)
布什总统常受人嘲笑的一句话就是Regime change。 Change什么呢？
当然，不是布什总统没脑筋，他只是传达了幕僚团和其他一些人的决策。
这些背后的人不会是没脑筋，至少是比绝大多数嘲笑的人有脑筋。
这边也一次又一次召开扩大会议。为什么要这么急切地传达“精神”呢？
因为决策层里一次又一次地遇到挫折，只好极限再加极限。害怕下面不领会。
那么毛是不是伟大领袖呢？他只了解中国历史。他爵位实在是外面给的。
但是毛精明，狡猾，狠得下心。如果马克思跟毛讲理论，第二天就开会，
然后就被挤出领导层。毛就是这样的人，但是毛看到马克思长的英俊，
即使悄悄地把马克思软禁起来，仍然会用马克思的头像去向女马列主义者
宣传理想。但是内部传达，谁接近马克思就杀谁的头。可见，中国历史对于
如何使用各种力量和控制各种人研究得比较... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 13 如果川普又去自扇耳光花几千亿搞regime change，弄出伊拉克第二，那么4年后可以喜
迎假印第安人做第一个女总统 |
|
T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 14 好在白宫里女婿和半农都不像爱打仗的， sos 石油公司出身爱打中东才见鬼
: 如果川普又去自扇耳光花几千亿搞regime change，弄出伊拉克第二，那么4年后
可以喜
: 迎假印第安人做第一个女总统
|
|
发帖数: 1 | 15 不管怎样, 川普空袭叙利亚,放任印度女人宣告regime change是priority,
说明他对外交和军事的失控. |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 16 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: beijingren (to thine own self be true), 信区: Military
标 题: 美国人民对政府的满意程度不如中国的一半，USA needs a regime change
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep 16 23:54:17 2017, 美东)
就象美国对其他国家政府的颠覆一样。 |
|
t**x
发帖数: 20965 | 17 https://www.sott.net/article/273517-Study-US-regime-has-killed-20-30-million
-people-since-World-War-Two
IRAQ
The total number of Iraqi deaths that are a result of our current Iraq
against Iraq War is 654,000, of which 600,000 are attributed to acts of
violence, according to Johns Hopkins researchers. (1,2)
KOREA
John H. Kim, a U.S. Army veteran and the Chair of the Korea Committee of
Veterans for Peace, stated in an article that during the Korean War "the U.S
. Army, Air Force and Navy were dir... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*******n
发帖数: 10 | 18 'ideal dilute regime'?
Thanks! |
|
j**********i
发帖数: 3758 | 19 布什总统常受人嘲笑的一句话就是Regime change。 Change什么呢？
当然，不是布什总统没脑筋，他只是传达了幕僚团和其他一些人的决策。
这些背后的人不会是没脑筋，至少是比绝大多数嘲笑的人有脑筋。
这边也一次又一次召开扩大会议。为什么要这么急切地传达“精神”呢？
因为决策层里一次又一次地遇到挫折，只好极限再加极限。害怕下面不领会。
那么毛是不是伟大领袖呢？他只了解中国历史。他爵位实在是外面给的。
但是毛精明，狡猾，狠得下心。如果马克思跟毛讲理论，第二天就开会，
然后就被挤出领导层。毛就是这样的人，但是毛看到马克思长的英俊，
即使悄悄地把马克思软禁起来，仍然会用马克思的头像去向女马列主义者
宣传理想。但是内部传达，谁接近马克思就杀谁的头。可见，中国历史对于
如何使用各种力量和控制各种人研究得比较透？
以前党的代表大会里曾这么说：我们不是要在肉体上消灭剥削阶级，而是
在精神上消灭剥削。但是在中国没有宗教概念的地方，这句话的含义就
充分表达了毛的语言威力：既有死亡的威胁，也有迫胁的诱惑，更有假借
理想外溢的光彩，尽管那从来就不是他自己的理想，但是他认识到理想的
威力。
那么现在的实... 阅读全帖 |
|
i*******1
发帖数: 14 | 20 I'm curious where you apply the regime switching model, to the modeling of
macro economic variables? If so, I'm interested in knowing a bit more about
how you plan to tackle this as I myself may be working on the same subject
soon.
C/
++ |
|
j****s
发帖数: 271 | 21 http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/newsweek/062705.html
How To Change Ugly Regimes
Washington has a simple solution to most governments it doesn't like:
isolate them, slap sanctions on them and wait for their downfall.
By Fareed Zakaria
As you read about yet another Iranian "election"—in which candidates
have been carefully vetted by the ruling mullahs—keep in mind that
the real story in Iran is that the government has tightened its grip
on power in recent years. Despite an unhappy population |
|
j****s
发帖数: 271 | 22 因为万米的价值相对主义还没有达到原教旨的程度
面对北韩这样的价值体系万米不会用价值相对论和多元化理论当挡箭牌楞说它什么
都没看见。这篇文章并没有说非要如何算计着摧毁那些ugly regimes，
只是主张接触而不是隔离的政策，作者相信通过和平的交往那些国家会自然而然
地融入开放体系。
说
。 |
|
l********k
发帖数: 14844 | 23 Does Iran's President wants Israel wiped off the map?
如果嫌太长，请看最后一段
To raze Israel to the ground, to batter down, to destroy, to annihilate, to
liquidate, to erase Israel, to wipe it off the map - this is what Iran's
President demanded - at least this is what we read about or heard of at the
end of October 2005. Spreading the news was very effective. This is a
declaration of war they said. Obviously government and media were at one
with their indignation. It goes around the world.
But let's take ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l*****7
发帖数: 8463 | 24 http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB80/
home | about | documents | news | publications | FOIA | research |
internships | search | donate | mailing list
Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 80
Updated - February 11, 2004
Edited by Jeffrey Richelson
Originally posted December 20, 2002
Previously updated February 26, 2003
Documents - Press release - Further reading
Between Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and the commencement of... 阅读全帖 |
|
z**********e
发帖数: 22064 | 25 http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659
The Coming Chinese Crackup
By
David Shambaugh
March 6, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
The endgame of communist rule in China has begun, and Xi Jinping's ruthless
measures are only bringing the country closer to a breaking point
Chinese President Xi Jinping, front center, and other Chinese leaders attend
the opening meeting on Thursday of the third session of the National People
's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Xinh... 阅读全帖 |
|
v**e
发帖数: 8422 | 26 CIA 利比亚反叛者们是来自伊拉克的基地武装分子ZT- 到底是谁利用了谁还真难说
来源: 没底 于 2011-10-30
CIA Libya Rebels are Al-Qaeda Fighters From Iraq
Politics / Al-Qeeda Mar 29, 2011 - 07:54 AM
By: Global_Research
Politics
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Webster G.
Tarpley writes: “Serpents, thirst, heat, and sand … Libya alone can
present a multitude of woes that it would beseem men to fly from.” Lucan,
Pharsalia
Washington DC, March 24, 2011 — The current military attack on Libya has
been motivated by UN S... 阅读全帖 |
|
t*******h
发帖数: 2882 | 27 新政府准备把西方石油公司赶走，换成中国投资公司。一般来说土鳖的石油公司在非洲
多是和当地政府合资成立一个公司，土鳖出的价格比西方公司高，当地政府和中国合作
收益远高于直接发牌给西方公司，非洲国家的政府当然愿意和土鳖合作啦。利比亚如果
换了政府，如果不是像卡扎菲那么NC，也是会更愿意和土鳖合作滴。
http://www.africa-asia-confidential.com/article/id/521/Election
MADAGASCAR | CHINA
Election funds? Try Hong Kong
Antananarivo is looking for resource deals with Asian financiers to raise
cash for an election campaign for interim leader Andry Rajoelina
The transitional regime led by Andry Rajoelina is threatening to cancel oil
exploration licences he... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 How Obama Betrayed America
A policy of appeasement and intervention abets our enemies.
By David Horowitz
“If we have to use force, it is because we are America. We are the
indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see farther into the future.”
— Madeleine Albright, secretary of state (1997–2001), Clinton
administration
It is a judgment on Barack Obama’s timorous, apologetic, and irresponsible
conduct of foreign affairs that Madeleine Albright’s words, spoken little
more than 15 years ago, now sou... 阅读全帖 |
|
Z**R
发帖数: 1233 | 29 By Mohamed Hussein BBC Monitoring
One week after the United Nations Security Council authorized the use of
military force in Libya, a solution to the country's crisis appears nowhere
in sight.
The Gaddafi regime remains entrenched in the west and the "rebels" continue
to control the east, from Libya's second city of Benghazi to the Egyptian
border, raising the spectre of stalemate and the de facto division of the
country.
The UN resolution
Security Council Resolution 1973, passed on 17 March, ca... 阅读全帖 |
|
j**n
发帖数: 13789 | 30 Democracy In Egypt An Uncertainty, Analysts Fear
February 11, 2011
Egyptians welcomed military rule Friday with a massive display of joy.
Protesters across Cairo reveled at the victory they had wrought, and
Egyptian reporters on cable TV channels were reduced to tears as they sought
to convey their happiness.
But many questions remain about what comes next — and there are strong
doubts about whether military rule will lead to the demonstrators' ultimate
goal: a credible transition to democracy.
... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 Their husbands have run some of the most brutal regimes of the Arab world.
But who are the women who stand by the dictators?
In December 2010, the French first lady Carla Bruni sat down to lunch under
the gold chandeliers of the Elysée palace with Asma al-Assad, wife of the
Syrian leader Bashar. As they sat demurely with their husbands around a
butterfly-print tablecloth dominated by a pastel flower-arrangement, a
photographer was ushered in to grab a picture for French celebrity magazines
. Aft... 阅读全帖 |
|
W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 32 这次是真的铁证如山了，想抵赖也赖不掉了。是真的！虽然之前西方媒体也是这样说的
好多次了。不知道这次是不是也是跟以前一样。
Vault protects smuggled photos documenting alleged Syrian war crimes
In a drab office building in a European capital amid the sound of humming
document scanners, a team of human rights lawyers is hard at work processing
thousands of documents that they say link the Syrian government to war
crimes.
The papers point to an unmistakable conclusion, according to those leading
the effort: The government of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad h... 阅读全帖 |
|
e*******l
发帖数: 1269 | 33 看看这家伙的文章，欧洲的左派，人才阿。
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/07/syria-inter
**********************************************
Intervention in Syria will escalate not stop the killing
Seumas Milne
Russia and China blocked a bid to force regime change. But a negotiated
settlement is the only way out of civil war
There is no limit, it seems, to the blood price Arabs have to pay for their
"spring". After the carnage in Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya, Syria's 11-
month-old uprising grows ever m... 阅读全帖 |
|
h****r
发帖数: 258 | 34 Inside the Left’s Plans to Occupy Trump
Veterans of Occupy Wall Street are dusting off an old protest tactic for a
new era.
NEW YORK — One week after Charlottesville, “the Resistance” is planning
its next move. Members of a group calling itself “Refuse Fascism” met in
five cities around the country on Saturday with the intent to plan and
organize nationwide demonstrations later this year. Their goal, according to
Eva Sahana, a 22 year-old organizer, is simply to “drive out the Trump and
Pence fa... 阅读全帖 |
|
d******r
发帖数: 4 | 35 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: Military
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:40 2011, 美东)
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:10 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更多纪录片、教学视频请访问：http://www.docwiki.org
Course No. 8370 (48 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture)
Taught by Richard Baum
University of California, L... 阅读全帖 |
|
w******3
发帖数: 3 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:38:40 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更多纪录片、教学视频请访问：http://www.docwiki.org
Course No. 8370 (48 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture)
Taught by Richard Baum
University of California, Los Angeles
Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley
下载链接：
http://www.fileserve.com/file/yYZSm8c/01- The Splendor That Was China... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 37 这是利比亚的新的革命？
由Dirk Vandewalle，特向美国有线新闻网
（CNN）的 - 任何持续的反对，在利比亚的开放思想博格尔斯异议，即使是卡扎菲上校
的严密控制的国家最老资格的观察家的想法。
自从他1969年来到了不流血政变，更换了亲西方桑西君主政权，利比亚领导人统治一个
铁腕的手，几乎没有留下任何机会，反对合并。
出乎我们通常所说的，在西方，卡扎菲的方式，能够巩固这一高度集权体制到位不仅依
靠感知纯洁，蛮力 - 虽然这始终是最终决定因素 - 但也另外两个因素。
一个是一个分而治之复杂的系统，平衡的家庭，部落和对对方国家的省份。二是通过伪
装自己在反西方，尤其是反美地幔，至少最初，在灾难性的，其中包括后殖民时期的残
暴和一个完全腐败感知为君主制，在财政和国家遗产思想上他的同胞许多共鸣。
保护卡扎菲的利比亚这样的组合 - 一个国家，在他的理论是由公民直接运行 - 针对不
稳定和证明直到上周无懈可击。
四十年来，经受住了与西方的制度，其中包括在1986年4月，是美国单方面的经济制裁
和多边外交和经济制裁，孤立了深刻的国家，一个与邻国乍得的一系列灾难性战争的美
国轰炸的黎波里和班... 阅读全帖 |
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w******3
发帖数: 3 | 38 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: Military
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:41:36 2011, 美东)
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:40:11 2011, 美东)
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:38:40 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更... 阅读全帖 |
|
d******r
发帖数: 4 | 39 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:10 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更多纪录片、教学视频请访问：http://www.docwiki.org
Course No. 8370 (48 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture)
Taught by Richard Baum
University of California, Los Angeles
Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley
下载链接：
http://www.fileserve.com/file/yYZSm8c/01- The Splendor That Was China... 阅读全帖 |
|
w******3
发帖数: 3 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:40:11 2011, 美东)
发信人: wmz55123 (wmz55123), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 7 08:38:40 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更多纪录片、教学视频请访问：http://www.docwiki.org
Course No. 8370 (48 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture)
Taught by Richard Baum
University of California,... 阅读全帖 |
|
h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 41 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: hsh (三胡), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: 这是利比亚的新的革命？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 21 16:34:32 2011, 美东)
这是利比亚的新的革命？
由Dirk Vandewalle，特向美国有线新闻网
（CNN）的 - 任何持续的反对，在利比亚的开放思想博格尔斯异议，即使是卡扎菲上校
的严密控制的国家最老资格的观察家的想法。
自从他1969年来到了不流血政变，更换了亲西方桑西君主政权，利比亚领导人统治一个
铁腕的手，几乎没有留下任何机会，反对合并。
出乎我们通常所说的，在西方，卡扎菲的方式，能够巩固这一高度集权体制到位不仅依
靠感知纯洁，蛮力 - 虽然这始终是最终决定因素 - 但也另外两个因素。
一个是一个分而治之复杂的系统，平衡的家庭，部落和对对方国家的省份。二是通过伪
装自己在反西方，尤其是反美地幔，至少最初，在灾难性的，其中包括后殖民时期的残
暴和一个完全腐败感知为君主制，在财政和国家遗产思想上他的同胞许多共鸣。
保护卡扎菲的利比亚这样的组合 - 一个国家，在他的理论... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 42 By BEN HUBBARD and ELIZAEBTH A. KENNEDY
BIREH, Lebanon (AP) -- Syria's war barreled over the border with an angry,
raucous funeral Monday for an anti-Syrian cleric whose killing set off a
night of deadly street battles in Beirut and raised fears that Lebanon is
getting drawn into the chaos afflicting its neighbor.
The violence is a reflection of Lebanon's political dysfunction, a legacy of
years of civil war when the country became a proxy battleground for other
nations. Lebanon walks a fragil... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 43 VLADIVOSTOK, Russia — Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has severed
Canadian ties with Iran over its sponsorship of terrorism and amid fears
about the safety of diplomats in the country.
Baird says the Canadian embassy in Tehran will close immediately and Iranian
diplomats in Canada have been given five days to leave.
The skeleton staff that was operating Canada's Tehran mission has already
fled the country.
Baird says he's worried about the safety of diplomats in Tehran following
recent attac... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*******t
发帖数: 8550 | 44 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:10 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
更多纪录片、教学视频请访问：http://www.docwiki.org
Course No. 8370 (48 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture)
Taught by Richard Baum
University of California, Los Angeles
Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley
下载链接：
http://www.fileserve.com/file/yYZSm8c/01- The Splendor That Was China... 阅读全帖 |
|
d******r
发帖数: 4 | 45 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: ChinaNews
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:04:35 2011, 美东)
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: Military
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:40 2011, 美东)
发信人: docluver (docluver), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 5 11:02:10 2011, 美东)
UCLA开放课程：中国的兴与衰 Fall and Rise of China
中国的兴与衰
（这是网上找到的最全的集合，欲下从速，删除后不再重新上传）
... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
c******o
发帖数: 1184 | 47 Will China stay on course?
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
Events in the Middle East and North Africa are of historic importance, but
the even bigger, long-term story is the rise of China. What path will it
choose at home and abroad in the years ahead?
For decades there has been debate at the highest levels of the Chinese
government about how much to modernize politically to ensure growth and
stave off revolution.
It’s notoriously difficult to analyze the inner workings off the Chinese
Communist Party. ... 阅读全帖 |
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y****e
发帖数: 23939 | 48 Good evening --
I just addressed the nation about the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Over the past two years, what began as a series of peaceful protests against
the repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad has turned into a brutal civil war
in Syria. Over 100,000 people have been killed.
In that time, we have worked with friends and allies to provide humanitarian
support for the Syrian people, to help the moderate opposition within Syria
, and to shape a political settlement. But we have resiste... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 49 来看看谁能读得懂。
=====================================
神级洗地文：我美国爸爸没说要Take China down,你们简直是造谣、污蔑、歪曲事实真
相！ 美国, 歪曲事实, China
【来源】：被打飞
【原题】：洪博培要和带路党里应外合搞垮中国？
【作者】：被打飞
青力维新提供
昨天有朋友问我，洪博培要和国内网民里应外合，搞垮中国，是怎么回事？我一听觉得
真新鲜，洪博培自己家在中国要做那么大的生意，他竟然想搞垮中国，爱美国都爱到大
义灭亲的程度了？
今天早晨看了看视频，原来是前些天共和党预选辩论时说的一句话。原话是
“We should be reaching out to our allies and constituencies within China.
They're called the young people. They're called the internet generation.
There are 500 million internet users in China…And 80 million bloggers.... 阅读全帖 |
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w**********2
发帖数: 764 | 50 The Confiscation of Savings in Canada? Cyprus-Style “Bail-Ins” Proposed by
Ottawa Government
www.globalresearch.ca
The politicians of the western world are coming after your bank accounts. In
fact, Cyprus-style “bail-ins” are actually proposed in the new Canadian
government budget. When I first heard about this I was quite skeptical, so I
went and looked it up for myself. And guess what? It is right there in
black and white on pages 144 and 145 of “Economic Action Plan 2013″ which
the Harper gov... 阅读全帖 |
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