Z**R
发帖数: 1233 | 1 By Mohamed Hussein BBC Monitoring
One week after the United Nations Security Council authorized the use of
military force in Libya, a solution to the country's crisis appears nowhere
in sight.
The Gaddafi regime remains entrenched in the west and the "rebels" continue
to control the east, from Libya's second city of Benghazi to the Egyptian
border, raising the spectre of stalemate and the de facto division of the
country.
The UN resolution
Security Council Resolution 1973, passed on 17 March, called for a ceasefire
and the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya, and it imposed a freeze on
"all funds, other financial assets and economic resources" owned or
controlled by the Libyan authorities.
Although the resolution authorized member states to "take all necessary
measures to protect civilians under threat of attack", it explicitly
excluded "a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan
territory".
Since the resolution was passed Western countries, led by the United States,
France and Britain, have carried out a series of air strikes which appear
to have succeeded in degrading or neutralizing Libyan air defences, thus
minimising the risk to the warplanes patrolling the no-fly zone.
Most importantly, air strikes on the outskirts of Benghazi on 19 March
removed the immediate threat facing the city where the regime's forces had
been poised to advance after Gaddafi promised to search it "alley by alley,
house by house, room by room" and to show "no mercy".
Military failures
However, initial speculation that the removal of Gaddafi's air power from
the military equation would clear the way for the rebels to advance to the
areas still under his control has so far not been borne out.
To begin with, the rebels, who are using Benghazi as their headquarters,
have failed to take advantage of the cover provided by the no-fly zone to
move westwards.
Poorly trained or untrained, disorganised, without a command structure or,
apparently, a plan, and lacking the wherewithal to counter Gaddafi's armour
and heavy artillery, they have failed to retake even towns that they had
originally captured, such as Ajdabiya, a gateway town to eastern Libya
located 100 miles (160 kilometres) to the west of Benghazi, and the oil
towns of Brega and Ras Lanuf further to the west.
Moreover, Libyan army units that had turned their back on the Gaddafi regime
in the early days of the rebellion, notably the Sa'iqa special forces
brigade based in Benghazi, appear to have shed their uniforms and vanished
instead of joining the rebel armed forces.
The special forces' long-serving erstwhile commander, General Abd-al-Fattah
Yunis, who in February defected from the regime where he was interior
minister and is now "chief of the General Staff of the Army of Free Libya",
appears not to have used his influence or contacts in the force to mobilise
it to the rebel cause.
Consequently, in the areas previously under full rebel control, such as the
central city of Misrata, about 130 miles (210 km) from the capital Tripoli,
and the western city of Zintan, about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Tripoli,
Gaddafi's forces have continued to tighten their grip through what
eyewitnesses describe as the indiscriminate use of tanks, heavy armour,
multiple rocket launchers and snipers, as well as by cutting water and power
supplies to the population.
Political and communications failure
The rebels' failure on the military front has been matched by an equally
significant absence of a communications strategy towards Libyans and,
crucially, Western publics whose support is essential if their governments
are to continue to participate in implementing UN Security Council
Resolution 1973.
Furthermore, although soon after taking over Benghazi and eastern Libya in
February the rebels announced an interim leadership the Transitional
National Council - which consists mainly of people who either had served in
or had been connected to the Gaddafi regime - they have not so far explained
their vision for the country or how they intend to achieve that vision,
beyond toppling Gaddafi.
This has generated anxiety among some Libyans, and especially in the Western
states implementing the UN Security Council resolution where questions are
being asked regarding the wisdom of supporting a side in the Libyan conflict
about which little is known.
Stalemate and division?
On the face of it, these tactical and strategic failures do not bode well
either for the future of Libya or for the rebels' cause.
The inability of the Gaddafi regime to overwhelm the rebels in the absence
of air cover, and the failure of the rebel forces to plan and organise a
push westwards, could in time result in a freezing of the status quo and the
de facto division of the country, with a rump state controlled by Gaddafi
in the west and the eastern half of the country under rebel rule.
Both sides have vowed not to let this happen but they may have no choice but
to accept it.
From the Western allies' point of view, this would also be a most
undesirable outcome because as long as Gaddafi remains in power in one half
of they country - and therefore a threat to civilians in the other half - it
would mean that they would have to maintain the no-fly zone indefinitely.
The Iraq scenario, then, where the no-fly zone was in position for 10 years,
would begin to haunt decision makers, not only because it would create a
haemorrhaging of public support for the intervention in Libya, but also
because of the big economic costs involved.
As far as the rebels are concerned, a long-drawn-out stalemate would also
give the Gaddafi regime time to mobilise international opinion against the
no-fly zone and for the lifting of UN sanctions.
Endgame
However, a stalemate and the facto division of Libya are by no means
inevitable.
In the first place, the rebels still have time to formulate a strategy,
organize a coherent military force and capture the areas still under Gaddafi
's control.
Secondly, now that Gaddafi's air defences have been neutralised and a no-fly
zone is fully operational, his forces are no longer capable of retaking any
of the major towns and cities under rebel control.
Furthermore, with the no-fly zone in place, the air forces of the countries
implementing the UN Security Council resolution can now focus their
attention on the regime's supply lines and troop movements where these are
judged to be a potential threat to civilians, as has happened in Misrata.
This would not only ensure that the Libyan ruler does not expand the areas
under his grip, but might also lead army commanders still loyal to him to
question the long-term value of their loyalty.
Another factor that would work against the possibility of a long-term
stalemate and the de facto division of Libya is the possibility of
intervention by Western ground troops in areas where Gaddafi's forces might
infiltrate into towns and cities and present a grave threat to the civilian
population.
Although Security Council resolution explicitly excludes "a foreign
occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory", it does not
rule out targeted intervention by ground forces, for example, special forces
sent in to take out snipers from residential centres.
Finally, there is the possibility of decapitation, that is, targeting
Gaddafi himself. Although this is a controversial subject and is not
authorised explicitly in the Security Council resolution, the resolution
does authorise UN member states to "take all necessary measures to protect
civilians under threat of attack".
Given the centralised character of the Libyan regime, and the fact that no
major attack against civilians is likely to be undertaken without Gaddafi's
explicit endorsement, taking "all necessary measures to protect civilians"
could be interpreted under specific circumstances to include taking out
Gaddafi himself. | y***i
发帖数: 11639 | 2 无耻到了极点。
建立禁飞区是为了“保护没有武装的贫民”
现在替叛军攻击政府军也叫“保护没有武装的贫民”
但这么“保护平民”目前还不够撼动政府军, 所以文章还建议
1. 加入地面部队帮助叛军占领城镇,这也被称为“保护没有武装的贫民”
2. 专门派人杀死卡扎菲, 因为所有攻击平民的命令都是卡扎菲发出的, 所以杀死卡扎
菲也是在“保护没有武装的平民”
所以一个“保护没有武装的平民”的联合国“禁飞区”决议, 就可以又打坦克又参战
又派地面部队又攻打城市又杀死国家元首又推翻政府。
英国人真是没有廉耻的底线。
nowhere
continue
ceasefire
【在 Z**R 的大作中提到】
: By Mohamed Hussein BBC Monitoring
: One week after the United Nations Security Council authorized the use of
: military force in Libya, a solution to the country's crisis appears nowhere
: in sight.
: The Gaddafi regime remains entrenched in the west and the "rebels" continue
: to control the east, from Libya's second city of Benghazi to the Egyptian
: border, raising the spectre of stalemate and the de facto division of the
: country.
: The UN resolution
: Security Council Resolution 1973, passed on 17 March, called for a ceasefire
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