c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 1 WASHINGTON — Preliminary results of an exit poll conducted for The
Associated Press show that the presidential election hinges once again on
the economy.
The survey of voters as they leave polling places Tuesday shows 6 in 10
voters say the economy is the top issue facing the nation, with unemployment
and rising prices hitting voters hard.
About 4 in 10 say they think the nation's economy is on the mend, but more
say that things are getting worse or are bad and stagnating.
Just a quarter of thos... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 2 As more bad poll numbers continue to pour in for President Barack Obama, a
new survey finds that if the 2012 election matchup were held this month,
Mitt Romney would hold the edge with the voters.
Romney topped Obama 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the
Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday. Among all Americans, the
2012 rivals would be tied, at 47 percent.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/mitt-romney-barack-obama-2012-election-poll-100044.html#ixzz2l8... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 By Justin Sink
President Obama’s approval rating has dipped below 40 percent on the heels
of his controversial decision to take executive action on immigration,
according to Tuesday poll.
Some 54 percent of Americans surveyed by Quinnipiac University disapprove of
the president, while 39 percent approve. That’s approaching the president
’s all-time low of 38 percent approval in December 2013, during the botched
HealthCare.gov rollout and anger over revelations about National Security
Agency surv... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 4 尤其是第二个问题，TC配还是CT配？
AMHERST, Mass. – Donald Trump and Ben Carson have a dominating lead over
the rest of the field of Republican presidential candidates, and should
either of them drop out of the primary race the other stands to benefit the
most, according to a new UMass Poll released today by the University of
Massachusetts Amherst.
Overall, Trump leads the Republican field with 31 percent of likely
Republican voters listing him as their first choice, based on a nationwide
online survey of 318 l... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 494 | 5 Another poll:
Loras College poll in Iowa: Trump 26% Cruz 25% Rubio 13% Carson 8% Bush 6%
Kasich 4% Live-caller Jan. 13-18
Cruz dropped 5 points from their Dec poll.
Trump up 3 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 6 都说床铺搞砸了，其实没那么严重，但在SC这个州特殊选民结构里如何发酵得下周新的
poll出来才能看到。
Immediately after Saturday night's Republican debate, CBS News interviewed a
nationally representative sample of debate watchers assembled by GfK's
Knowledge Panel who identified themselves as Republicans or independents.
Thirty-two percent of these debate watchers say Marco Rubio won the debate,
beating out Donald Trump (24 percent) and John Kasich (19 percent), who are
ranked second and third, respectively. Further down on the list are Ted Cr... 阅读全帖 |
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L**d
发帖数: 620 | 7 有的poll不准，有的poll还真的很准，做的人不一样有好有坏，这个poll据我观察室比
较准的一个。
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Monmouth Trump 38, Rubio 30, Cruz 17
, Kasich 10 Trump +8 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 8 It is a poll from Fox. Fox and WSJ polls are very biased.
Both organizations are owned by Rupert Murdoch.
How Cruz can narrow the gap after he wins zero state on Super Tuesday?
Remember that this poll was done before Mar 22nd. |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 9 说支持率又是历史新低了，几乎每一个新闻都是有关POLL的。他不过输了个魔门州，落
井下石根本就没有必要。
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/25/donald-trump-hits-all-tim
kstoparkless
These Survey Polls On Trump are BULL CRAP!! These Same Poll Dancers Missed
the Senate Elections in 2014 BY 10 to 15% and One was OFF 22%!!! The moveon.
org group and mediamatters.org group are PAYING these democrat Protestors to
Be Belligerent (INCITE RIOTS) at Trump Rallys!! These are the same Jerks
Protesting Wall Street and The BIG BANKS Where By The Way Hillary Cl... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 10 johnlocke445 •3 hours ago
I've had a lot of polling experience in college when I was getting my PhD in
mathematics and I can tell everyone this. In a nonlinear system like
politics, economics, weather or anything that moves with chaos and
complexity the underlying data does not change this radically. Ted Cruz was
at 23% two weeks ago and I have never seen a poll move almost 20 points like
that unless a random event takes place such as the death of a candidate or
a candidate leaving the rac... 阅读全帖 |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 11 那种poll都是无聊的，只有正式确定了对阵的poll，尤其是最近1，2个月的poll就比较
准。 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 12 别担心，美国选民着几年被奥黑干得够呛，没有那么傻。本周的纷扰都会过去，下周二
川普会大胜。这个共和党当权派昨天的POLL，open primary居然只统计注册共和党选民。
Donald Trump and Ted Cruz running neck and neck in the upcoming Wisconsin
primary as the race for the Republican presidential nomination heads into a
critical stage, a new poll released Thursday reveals.
Public Policy Polling's survey of 768 likely Republican primary voters shows
Cruz leading by a whisker with 38 percent support, followed by Trump with
37 percent.
But with the survey's margin of error of 3.5 p... 阅读全帖 |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 13 好吧，都这个点儿了，你还不如上午就发exit poll结果。
poll没结束的exit poll结果没啥可值得兴奋的呀。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 14 Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump nationally,a new
Bloomberg Politics pollshows.
Clinton has 49% support to Trump's 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9%,
according to the poll of 750 likely voters. The poll was conducted Friday
through Monday and released Tuesday evening, meaning many of those polled
were surveyed before the Orlando terrorist attack. |
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d******r
发帖数: 1247 | 15 another one:
National poll: Clinton lead grows over Trump
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/poll-trump-clinton-who-is-winning-224298
"Clinton narrowed Trump’s lead among men and white voters to single digits
over the past week and now leads Trump by 25 points — 58 percent to 33
percent".
"The poll was conducted online from June 6 to 12, surveying 10,604 adults,
including 9,355 who are registered to vote. The margin of error is plus or
minus 1.4 percentage points." |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 16 This poll number means that Hillary will win almost all states.
Hillary has to go to jail for Trump winning the election.
Otherwise, a piper dream for GOP.
The poll of TRUMP is much much worse than Mccain and Romney.
Trump polls always lead in GOP primary. Please do not lie. |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 18 A clear majority of voters prefer the FBI back prosecution of Hillary
Clinton, according to a July 5 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports.
The poll was taken after FBI director James Comey said July 5 that the FBI
would not urge Clinton’s prosecution for her very careless handling of
classified government information.
Thirty seven percent of likely voters agree with the FBI’s decision to not
urge prosecution, but 54 percent disagreed with the FBI decision to not seek
an indictment of Clinton, acc... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 19 Clinton leads Trump, 47 to 44 percent, in the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll
released Tuesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
Clinton had a 5-point edge over Trump, 48 to 43 percent, in the same poll
last week.
Pollsters also found in the new survey that 82 percent think Clinton’s use
of a private email server while secretary of State was “not appropriate,”
versus 15 percent who say it was.
Fifty-six percent also disagree with FBI Director James Comey’s
recommendation last week that Clinton not face criminal charge... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 20 Wrong.
What that means is they just polled people who are registered voters. They
could still manipulate the ratio of registered DEM, vs GOP vs Independents.
Did you find any poll saying that their polled people represent the actual
ratios of registered voters nationwide or in a state? |
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x*******i
发帖数: 273 | 21 很简单，选择有bias的样板。比如这个poll：
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_7302016.pdf
Q29 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 52% ................................................
Mitt Romney 41% ....................................................
12年大选，Obama对Romney是51.1% vs 47.2%，差距4％，上面poll的人群差距是11%。
这个poll的结果是cliton领先trump 5%，但如果考虑被采样样本的偏差，真实的支持率
是不相上下。 |
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t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 22 poll的取样可以改的，比如深蓝州多取点，大城市多取点，
poll的结果也可以改， 40：60可以直接改为54:44再公布。
我不看poll, 我只看rally response. 满屋子的听众，和冷清的现场，哪个会赢是一目
了然的。 |
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k***k
发帖数: 791 | 23 版上有人总是引用 AMP Calypso的poll。
这个poll 连续几个月都是Ryan 落后。
两个星期前poll 的结果是41： 46. 真实投票结果是85:15。
这个所谓的AMP Calypso 就是一个骗子公司而已。 |
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S******4
发帖数: 2865 | 24 你还在这里跟他们苦战干啥？
我以前来逛逛，现在躲老远的。这里的人要不就是五毛，要不就是有神经病的。
就看poll吧，看到有个poll利好上个星期就狂跪舔，同一个poll这个星期不好就狂骂，
被“老妖婆收买了”。
我觉得这里有些人已经不在讨论政治了，他们got attached to Trump's success as
if it's their own success，因为他们自己生活实在没什么成功的地方。。。 所以在
为自己的尊严战斗呢。你要是指出来他们的错，只会狗急跳墙。(Yes, there is a
word
for people like this in real life, it's called "loser".)
你也算了吧，回家洗洗睡。haha |
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p****n
发帖数: 402 | 25 poll基本不用看了，都是电话采访。受访人如果说支持trump，基本会有push back,迫
于压力不会说支持trump,特别是他大比分落后的情况下。
还是看捐款，rally实况来预测最后的turnout ratio。
美国很多传统企业现在六神无主，因为以前基本都有和Hillary以及Obama各种advisory
的直线联系，现在都在抱怨trump周围谁都没有，想套近乎也不行，说难道要去找
Ivanka??现在都在发动群众，看谁的子女认识Eric...lol
而且corporate都知道trump有很强的群众基础，经过brexit，基本不相信poll了。现在
的准备是，hillary上台大家都知道政策走向，trump如果上台估计会乱一阵。但其实都
在准备可能会有的shock -也就是trump当选的备案。如果真像poll预测的那样，大家不
会积极部署Plan B的。
刚刚又想了一下最近几天好多GOP叛变，有可能大家知道hillary现在比较危，趁火打劫
捞一个好deal。 |
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L****e
发帖数: 518 | 26 也是，RNC结束的那一周，trump的poll上来了，你们兴奋死了。现在，poll不行了，就
说poll不准确，哈哈。 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 28 假的。
CLAIM: Donald Trump said on Meet the Press that he would drop out of the
presidential race if polls showed him losing to Hillary Clinton.
MOSTLY FALSE
WHAT'S TRUE: Donald Trump said during an October 2015 appearance on Meet the
Press that if polls indicated he wasn't going to win the Republican
presidential nomination, he would drop out of the race.
WHAT'S FALSE: Donald Trump did not recently say on Meet the Press that he
would drop out of the presidential race if polls showed him losing to
... 阅读全帖 |
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h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 29 看看就行了。现在是对媒体集体不信任，所以各种poll，poll of poll 都跳出来了。
看今年这行情，到大选之前，都是市场争夺战。 |
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r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 30 这个叫zip的 app poll ，加州老床都55%比45%领先老婊，哈哈，左派是不敢相信的。
—”New polls suggest Trump is getting crushed by Clinton. Do they
reflect how you are going to vote?” Some 64% told Zip they would vote for
Trump, compared to 36% for Clinton. In the latestReuters/Ipsospoll,
Clinton leads Trump, 42% to 36%.
—”California, who you voting for?” Trump got 55%, compared to 45% for
Clinton. In the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll, Clinton
has a 16-point advantage over Trump, 46% to 30%. |
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s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 31 想讨论调研结果什么的，还是应该先学一些基本的统计学知识吧，以免贻笑大方。
如果只有对床老爷的热爱，而缺乏基本的统计学知识，就会说出一些比较可笑的话。
像现在这样发帖，说什么我们的poll样本量五万，就比样本量五百的准啊；什么这个“
online poll”调研了几十万，显示92%的人支持床老爷啊；什么参加Trump rally的人
多，说明媒体的poll造假啊。
给人的感觉，川粉不是poorly educated的，就是高级黑。 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 32 来，说说你怎么用统计学知识来反驳，老夫我识下你的education，就统计部分的，说
点货真价实的东西出来。
[在 sweetsister (甜甜) 的大作中提到：]
:想讨论调研结果什么的，还是应该先学一些基本的统计学知识吧，以免贻笑大方。
:如果只有对床老爷的热爱，而缺乏基本的统计学知识，就会说出一些比较可笑的话。
:像现在这样发帖，说什么我们的poll样本量五万，就比样本量五百的准啊；什么这个
“online poll”调研了几十万，显示92%的人支持床老爷啊；什么参加Trump rally的人
:多，说明媒体的poll造假啊。
:给人的感觉，川粉不是poorly educated的，就是高级黑。 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 33 如果你们不喜欢媒体的poll，最有力的攻击是说他们的样本不够representative.
而不是拿着一个五万或者几十万样本的poll来说自己更准确（因为你是在夸耀sample
size而已）。
至于为什么Trump Rally每次两三万人，并不能说明媒体的poll不准呢，这个很好理解：
因为参加Trump Rally的人都是自愿参加的，都是self selected, 这个样本不是随机选
取的random sample，而是一个convenience sample。
而convenience sample是无法代表11月8日投票的American Voters这个population的。
我这么说你明白了吗？ |
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S*****n
发帖数: 692 | 34 现在的poll有两个问题，一是biased sample. 就象最近一个Yougov的poll. Sample是D
+12, 结果是D+6. 考虑了sample bias, 老太婆完败。
二是Undecided/others明显增多。除了几个明显垃圾poll (NBC/WSJ算一个），经常会
看到虽然说D+5, 但实际是38对33这种。"undecided"什么意思，大家心里都明白。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 35 题目说了是poll了。
poll当然是对未来的预估。
至于对某个poll有什么感觉，高兴还是不高兴，都是读者个人的权利。
up |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 37 今年有些蓝州会翻红，更别说摇摆州了，老婊子破罐破摔了！
RCP averages , Hillary's lead in NJ is now less then 4, and dropping. In
some polls posted on RCP Trump leads in Maine. The polling trend for many
states is going against Hillary. She is no longer electable. Two polls
posted last week for RI had Trump leading by 1. These states normally vote
democrats with the democrat holding a 10 point lead on better, With Hillary
running that 10 points is hard to find. Most now show 5% or less
The most interesting is NY who is a so... 阅读全帖 |
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k***x
发帖数: 6799 | 38 我是NJ的，今天收到Trump NJ团队的邮件：
XXX --
The latest New Jersey poll shows we are in striking distance of taking New
Jersey for Donald Trump. The poll conducted by Emerson College shows Hillary
Clinton at 47% and Donald Trump at 43%.
Now is the time to become a volunteer and help Team Trump New Jersey take
back the Garden State. Sign up here to join our effort to take back our
country.
According to the poll, Clinton’s advantage is notably smaller in several
northeastern states as compared to President Oba... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 39 802 个 likely voter, Trump 44%, Clinton 39%…
绝大部分 poll 都不是 raw, 而是 weighted, 用 2012 年 voter turnout 来 weigh.
但大家都知道，Trump supporter 对 Trump support 的热情 和 Romeny Supporter 对
Romney 的 support 热情绝对不是一个等级。所以用 2012 的 turnout 来 weigh
poll, 绝对低估了 Trump 的支持率。
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/14/interesting-bloomberg-non-
weighted-poll-of-802-ohio-likely-voters-trump-44-clinton-39/ |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 40 这个Poll 我看过， 算是全美国最没有信用的一个Poll。
穷鬼才会信这个Poll。 |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 41 这个POLL 早就臭大街了， 你还蒙在鼓里。
发信人: lengxi1981 (test), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:08:57 2016, 美东)
扯淡，这是最有信誉的poll之一
【 在 addadd6 (haha) 的大作中提到: 】 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 43 上周CNN的poll说Trump领先 3 points 呢。
是不是CNN上周比较香，这周就变臭了？
------------------------------------------
Clinton's 5-point advantage is wider than other recent polls out of the
state, including a CNN/ORC survey released last week that found Trump up by
3, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error. |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 44 cnn 自己承认它是邪恶媒体。
==========================
发信人: lengxi1981 (test), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:19:40 2016, 美东)
cnn收视率并没有下降，反而创了新高
【 在 addadd6 (haha) 的大作中提到: 】
样。
: 标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:16:28 2016, 美东)
: CNN是最公正的媒体
: : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:14:32 2016, 美东)
: : http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/20/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-poll/ |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 45 这么大的差别， POLL 就是造假。
发信人: sweetsister (甜甜), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:25:36 2016, 美东)
是的。
所有的抽样都存在误差。所以要看一段时间poll的变化和平均值。
另外，这些变化也可能说明，有不少选民还没有拿定主意，所以容易被最近发生的新闻
影响。
【 在 lengxi1981 (test) 的大作中提到: 】 |
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T********N
发帖数: 1507 | 46 33倍于川普的竞选费投入，poll应该是30倍以上，现在这个样子希拉里咋个会不生气？
莫非希拉里平时看到的是身边工作人员给她单独准备的另外一个版本的poll，每天她都
领先川普60点以上，而且川普还在不断萎缩中
猛然间一看cnn公开的poll实在是让希拉里太意外了 |
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r*****o
发帖数: 1484 | 48 找了半天找不到哪里可以投cnn的那个poll。
其他所有的poll都是老川领先，cnn 能告诉大家下他那个poll从哪里来的吗。 |
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p**j
发帖数: 7063 | 49 大家都知道老妖婆在媒体上投了大量的钱，如果投完了以后poll还一塌糊涂，那她还会
继续投钱吗？当然是想别的办法了。那样媒体去找谁要钱？找川普？川普没投钱poll还
不错，那川普为什么去花冤枉钱？
这是为什么我们看到的poll，这个唯一可以黑箱操作的东西，跟我们眼睛看到的网上舆
论，院子里的牌子和车贴，网上卖的各种选举产品，书籍，这些没法作假的东西完全不
一样的原因。 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 50 我来，20伪币。
不过先定义好什么polls.
online polls不可信, 其中 la times 是 online polls
realclearpolitics.com 的 RCP average 行不行， 现在是 Hillary + 2.4 |
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