h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 1 That's what happens when investor seeks extra return but don't want to take
any additional risks. In the end, it's not that the new investment method
does not have risks, but the risks are hiding under the surface. How many
investors bought AAA-rating MBS?
Smart investors always seek risk-free returns. My IQ is lower but my heart
is stronger so I seek the risk-premium instead. So the bumpy the ride, the
better for me.
By the way, for those who missed the Madoff and Stanford international bank
op |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 2 Current mortgage rates are based on the FNMA 4.5% 30-year coupon MBS.
Price still dropping after the market is closed:
Heard the 30-year conventional rate jumped at least 50 bips TODAY. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 3 Look at the spike on TNX.
And to make it worse, the FNMA 4.5 collapsed as well:
Tomorrow $25B 7-year auction. Next week? 10-year & 30-year long bonds.
Primary dealers have to defend the Treasury market (big tail, fail...).
There isn't enough cash left to pump the equities and or the
commodities.... |
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m***m
发帖数: 324 | 4 the FNMA 4.5 collapsed as well是什么意思？菜鸟问。 |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 6 Master Bear, are you still keeping adding shorts? @_@ |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 7 no ball today, hehe.
Banks need to raise more $$ ah |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 8 To be fair, they are actually at normal level now.
The rate is not high at all in absolute term.
It's just much higher than a couple of months ago. |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 9 It's abnormal considering 2 trillion assets sitting at Fed's
balance sheet and 40% down of stock market. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 10 don't go too far. I am just saying the current level won't hurt economy
in normal conditions. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 为啥你们都觉得今天是坏消息呢？我早晨看报纸怎么看都是大利好。
GM 表面上是破产了，实际政府是面上罩个破产的幌子，里子里玩了命的继续
砸钱。除了 stock holders 被放弃了，基本上是皆大欢喜的安排。
当然我不是说这样真的就能解决问题，但是就华尔街的短视来说，这的确是
利好啊。 |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 12 砸钱还是得印，最终还是加重美元危机
短视是常态，但是还是要尊重危机爆发出现大瀑布的风险。美国的问题几年前
就很多人讲了，市场当成狼来了，一直不在乎。但是这两年来，房市泡沫，
消费泡沫，金融泡沫，一个接一个爆发。现在美国政府把大量系统风险转移到
自己身上，下面的债券危机，美元危机只是预演而已 |
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K******r
发帖数: 4052 | 13 刚买了有20k bonds+GNMA
要不要立马卖掉？ |
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z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 14 Current level ok, but speed of decline is scary esp. given it is only two
months
after QE, and hey should we talk about second derivatives? :) |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 16 how about those commom share holders? lose everything?? |
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l**i
发帖数: 176 | 17 上周bond fund闪了一下腰，我就决定全扔了。
都晃了1，2个月了。而且美国这么发国债，太白菜了。
可惜不知道怎么直接买bond。 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 18 MBS benchmark for 30-year fixed. Heading to 7% rate soon?
Not only TNX is kicking a$$ on Bernanke, but IRX,WTF. |
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t*******d
发帖数: 2570 | 19 stock portfolio: 66%
mutual fund: 16.73%
Both stock and mutual fund portfolios lose ground compared to SP500. Stock
portfolio return is negative this week while SP500 is positive.
Lack of ideas on what to buy at this moment.
Anyone comments on agency REIT companies? Which borrow short-term to buy
long-term MBS and earn the interest spread between short term and long term
interest. Is the yield curve is going to steepen or flat out? |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 20 从4.5%/4.75%到6%只用了三周，而且看起来远远没完。没有锁定利率的
都会被踢出去，完不成交易。以前正常的时候，有个15基点变化银行就会更新
利率，搁现在一天得换六次!
周三周四公布十年和三十年国债拍卖结果，等着看戏。 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 21 Both 4-week and 3-year auctions went well, maybe TOO well(BtC,indirect%).
While FCBs pile in bills & notes, long bonds sell off again?! |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 22 Where can I see the T's auction results? Thanks.
USD is losing ground today, not a good sign. |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 24 Sorry. But you still holding your short positions? |
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a*****s
发帖数: 3643 | 27 有没有Bond的ETF，yiekd高，可以以买些Bond |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 28 Pull the liquidity, daddy wants a waterfall,hoho. |
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 29 why r u so happy about this? |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 30 From his recent behavior, you can tell that he's betting so big on down
side that he is becoming very emotional. |
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 31 哈哈，感情是熬出头了，这个熬得也太难受了，佩服这兄弟的勇气。 |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 32 Last liquidity drain cost S&P 250 points in about 2 weeks.
Still early to call if this one is true, but you are right, I better
calm down... |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 33 Almost everything is against bears bah.
Bears have to grow(balls) with them. |
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o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 34 big banks也就是原来那些做MBS和CDS的sb们给毁的，其他很多部门还是赚钱的。议员
政客不分青红皂白限制所有人bonus的条款本身就是个joke. 如果你给银行赚了100个米
，但银行只能分你500k。hedge funds, trading firms遍地都是，想留住talents,不加
薪谁还跟你bank卖命？ |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 35 TNX 3.45%
FNMA 4.5 + 90 bps fromt the open low.
Added QQQQ puts. |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 37 105 bips swing from the open low in 1 day ah.
It translates to 5% or 5.25% 30-year fix. |
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a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 38 Sir, I am also a long term bear (inflation adjusted sp500 index wise), but I
am afraid there is a possibility that bears will be slaughtered in the
short term
. |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 39 any formula to calc the relationship? |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 40 btw, u continue to add qqqq puts in my memory. i think you've lost a lot of
time value... |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 42 early is wrong. I am eating it, hehe.
Usually mortgage rates are released pretty quickly...
of |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 43 There is really no definable signal. Something will go wrong, then
triggers everything else. Maybe china stocks crash, maybe US bonds
crash, maybe commodities crash, maybe some currency crashes, maybe
commercial MBS crashes, etc. Eventually everything will crash, but
in what sequence? too hard to tell. All we can do is to watch closely
and try to identify some early warnings. |
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 44 Fed only bought AAA ratings. There are discussions to allow Fed to buy AA
ratings MBS. |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 45 It's hard to say at this stage.
Usually the answer should be treasury bonds. But given the fact that 50%
of treasuries and 80% of MBS were actually bought by the Fed in the last
few months, we just cann't tell how strong or how weak the bond market
can be. That yields a huge uncertain about all other asset types.
At this stage there is not much to say but to watch. Commodities are
very weak recently. That's one of the reasons I think a correction is
coming.
and
or |
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 46 what "bond" do you refer to?
if you refer to the credit markets -- commercial papers/corporate bonds/MBS/
high-yield bonds, the return is determined by both risk-free interest rate (
i.e. Treasury etc) and credit spread (i.e, chance of default /bankrupcy).
During the crisis last year, credit spread widened dramatically -- some part
of the credit market literally forzen in the mid of the panic.
While, the tide turned and credit spread narrows this year (so far). |
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 47 let us talk about gov bonds, so that we don't need to bring credit spread in.
last year, the rate was down, gov bonds should be up. but bonds were actually
down (right?).
MBS/
(
part |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 48 那个MBS还不到5%。估计3%就不错了。
要不然银行家能脑满肠肥？ |
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s***w
发帖数: 521 | 49 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: djbwsnx (跳大绳), 信区: Stock
标 题: 美国股市，银行，政府的解读
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 17 02:34:07 2009, 美东)
现在政府购买了银行手中的MBS，才真正使得银行摆脱了无尽的坏账，腾出手来放贷和
投资，也就是三月来大反弹和现在放贷利率历史新低的根本原因，如果没认识到这一点
就会错误判断股市的趋势而错过一波难得的大行情。
同时，银行危机的解除了，却把危机转嫁到了美国政府上，其最坏的结果可能就是美元
的信任危机。如果美元危机最终发生，其结果将是无法想象的恐怖与惨烈。。。
在政府信用危机没到来之前，银行现在“不缺钱”，股市还会继续被推高，大家要趁此
机会好好拿回报，等到危机显现时也有一定的家底来抵抗危机了。危机的到来应该在明
年以后，现在到明年年初还会是继续向上的走势。危机到来的表现应该是油价再次逼近
100，联储不得不做出加息的决定，当联储加息之时，就是撤出股市之日。
当然，最好这场危机能化解，目前还没看到有化解的希望。奥巴马的政策：金融改革，
医疗体系改革都是正确的，将 |
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n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 50 If mortgage underlying all default, US gov would use tax payers' $ to
fulflll the obligation to bond holder such as China gov, like what they did
to AIG? |
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