发帖数: 1 | 1 美国又发生大型枪击案了。这次在一家中学校园里，死了十几位学生和老师。
美国是个枪支泛滥的社会。据报道，占世界人口4.4%的美国公民竟拥有世界平民拥枪总
量的42%。去年发生在拉斯维加斯的枪击案，其主犯的房间里查出几十条枪。而这次佛
州高中枪击案中的19岁少年凶手居然能合法买得杀伤力巨大的突击步枪，令人不可思议。
每次大型枪击案发生，总会引起加强枪支管控的呼声和争论。但是，以强大的步枪协会
（NRA）为首的利益集团和政客相互勾结，使得这种呼声在立法或政策层面几乎没有实
质进展。随着时间的流逝，声音慢慢平息下来，枪支继续泛滥，一切照旧。
其实在各种声音中没有多少是真正围绕控枪的必要性而进行的辩论。谁都声称反对枪支
“泛滥” 。控枪的理由似乎很充分，道理也很简单，在这点上真没什么好辩的。争论
最多的话题其实是：“我”（争论的一方）作为一个良民，到底该不该有拥枪的自由？
我是个理想中的禁枪论和现实中的拥枪特权论者。特审的体育和打猎用枪除外，现代文
明社会应该禁止民间拥有战争用的杀人武器，即便是“良民”也不应该有拥枪的“自由
”。考虑到历史文化和枪支泛滥的现实等原因，目前做不到禁枪，就应该对枪支... 阅读全帖 |
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D********r
发帖数: 135 | 2 不讨论法律问题，只是就事论事，希望不要断章取义。
读一下正文的一部分。几点有意思的地方：
1）有人提出50万到300万的估计，有人提出10万的估计，文章表明两组数据都不是什么
可靠地数据，目前尚无定论。
2）相对于其他防御手段，对于用枪犯罪情况下，用枪防御是受害者受伤最少的。
3）家庭拥枪和公共场合携抢的副作用（自杀，他杀）可能抹杀防御性用枪的好处，但
有待研究。
Defensive Use of Guns
Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the
exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost
all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims
are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimate... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********t
发帖数: 527 | 3 我擦，这个人不是被很多人打过脸了么？就在你给出的wiki page里
“Various studies have found that defensive gun uses occur at a dramatically
lower magnitude than that found by Kleck. In the article "Guns in America:
National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms" by Philip J. Cook
and Jens Ludwig, Cook and Ludwig quote the National Crime Victim Survey as
finding 108,000 DGUs per year. One section of the article compares the U.S.
crime rate to the number of DGUs reported by Kleck and Kleck-like studies
and concludes... 阅读全帖 |
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t**o
发帖数: 1263 | 4 奇怪，从GOOGLE可以直接连到这篇WSJ报道的全文，但是拷贝这个网址后则看不到全文
了。算了，我把全文贴在下面吧：
Lack of Data Slows Studies of Gun Control and Crime
Updated December 21, 2012, 12:31 a.m. ET
By JOE PALAZZOLO and CARL BIALIK
There is no shortage of opinions about whether gun-control laws accomplish
what they are designed to do—reduce violent crime. What is lacking are data.
As U.S. lawmakers prepare once again to take up the contested issue in the
wake of the Newtown school massacre, they will find that all data on guns
are surprising... 阅读全帖 |
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t**********3
发帖数: 12623 | 5 Edited after additional information was provided:
Most of the answers you're getting here are correct as far as they go. The
vast majority of gun crimes as you define them are committed with guns that
are illegally possessed.
For more specific statistics, you can find the FBI Uniform Crime Reports
here:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
but it may be a lot of work to mine the data you want out of them. The
references below have already done a lot of it for you.
Source(s):
Kleck, G., "Point Blank: G... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******r
发帖数: 5301 | 6 http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp#ownership
* A 1993 nationwide survey of 4,977 households found that over the previous
five years, at least 0.5% of households had members who had used a gun for
defense during a situation in which they thought someone "almost certainly
would have been killed" if they "had not used a gun for protection." Applied
to the U.S. population, this amounts to 162,000 such incidents per year.
This figure excludes all "military service, police work, or work as a
secu... 阅读全帖 |
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b********d
发帖数: 769 | 7 Every 48 seconds, someone uses a handgun to defend himself against a crime (
according to Florida State University's Gary Kleck). |
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t****v
发帖数: 9235 | 8 这位gary kleck一看就是个joke
他的数据要精确
老母猪上树 |
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b********d
发帖数: 769 | 9 这个数据是LIBERAL ANIT-GUN LOBBY 搞来的。PETER HART要和你拼了
Every 48 seconds, someone uses a handgun to defend himself against a crime (
according to Florida State University's Gary Kleck, using data collected by
liberal pollster Peter Hart in a poll paid for by the anti-gun lobby).
vast
were
occasions |
|
发帖数: 1 | 10 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: dragonfly (小蜻蜓), 信区: USANews
标 题: 27种不同情况下，拥枪者使犯罪分子伏法的成功案例（转）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 4 19:55:16 2017, 美东)
Reasons Why We Need to Preserve Our 2nd Amendment Right to Keep and Bear
Arms
The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil
interference. They deserve a place of honor with all that is good. When
firearms go, all goes. We need them every hour. — George Washington,
Founding Father in his address to the 2nd session of united States Cong... 阅读全帖 |
|
H*******g
发帖数: 6997 | 11 【 以下文字转载自 GunsAndGears 讨论区 】
发信人: heavypanzer (HP), 信区: GunsAndGears
标 题: 欧洲暴力犯罪率最高国家的诞生——英国禁枪那些事儿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 20 19:02:13 2012, 美东)
英国1997年之后将手枪禁掉，从此成为真正意义上的民众广泛无枪国，这算是大家都知
道的历史了。但是禁枪之后，犯罪率不降反升，短短十数载，已然成为泰晤士报和BBC
乃至全英国悲叹的“欧洲暴力犯罪率最高的国家”。
原因很简单，少了民众的武力制衡，暴徒就泛滥，犯罪成本极大的降低了，可能有枪的
民众歹徒侵犯之前要好好掂量一下自己的斤两，但是现在没枪了，胆子立刻肥了起来，
以前要在黑市花大价钱买枪才敢做的案子，三五英镑买把西瓜刀就能得手了。很可能也
是很多图表和统计上英国枪击案比例渐渐下降的原因——禁枪多年，再加上年年收缴，
百姓别说有枪，连枪是什么都快忘记了，杀鸡又何需用牛刀，子弹也比刀子贵啊。
同时伴随的却是暴力犯罪率的整体迅速上升，由以青少年一代蛊惑仔一样的犯罪盛行发
展，直到伦敦骚乱达到新的高峰。颇有... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 January 12, 2013 by Warner Todd Huston
In December, a Milwaukee man attempted to rob a corner market only to be
stopped by a female store clerk with a firearm.
The incident, which occurred on December 14, was caught on surveillance
video and shows a white man pulling a knife on a female clerk as she began
to ring him up for a small purchase.
After the attempted robber pulled his knife and began to yank at the cash
register, the female clerk pulled out a handgun from under the counter
causing t... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 13 我跳看了一下2.5million的出处。是estimate。但是经过top criminologist in this
country who was prejudiced in advance against的peer review，
So this data has been peer-reviewed by a top criminologist in this country
who was prejudiced in advance against its results, and even he found the
scientific evidence overwhelmingly convincing.
而且，经过了多于12个电话抽样
there are more than a dozen national polls -- one of which was conducted by
The Los Angeles Times -- that have found figures comparable to the Kleck-
Gertz study
虽然不是像警察报... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 14 Reasons Why We Need to Preserve Our 2nd Amendment Right to Keep and Bear
Arms
The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil
interference. They deserve a place of honor with all that is good. When
firearms go, all goes. We need them every hour. — George Washington,
Founding Father in his address to the 2nd session of united States Congress.
Steve Nolan, Contributor
Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims and survivors of the Aurora,
Colorado shooting as well as to... 阅读全帖 |
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a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 15 “不讨论法律问题“那讨论啥？如果不是为了指导政策，法规，这些study
都是没有必
要，浪费纳税人钱的。
用你自己的话，你可以去慢慢研究，但是有明显结果之前，不要出来提禁枪，控枪，禁
AR15这样的法律问题。
左派就直说要禁枪就好了。还要研究来研究去的找遮羞布。
跟Climate change一个路数。没有明显的 benefit/cost 和可行性证据，大跃进的上。
浪费上万亿的财富。这些财富哪里去了？ friends and family of the democrats。
: 不讨论法律问题，只是就事论事，希望不要断章取义。
: 读一下正文的一部分。几点有意思的地方：
: 1）有人提出50万到300万的估计，有人提出10万的估计，文章表明两组数
据都不
是什么
: 可靠地数据，目前尚无定论。
: 2）相对于其他防御手段，对于用枪犯罪情况下，用枪防御是受害者受伤
最少的。
: 3）家庭拥枪和公共场合携抢的副作用（自杀，他杀）可能抹杀防御性用
枪的好
处，但
: 有待研究。
: Defensive... 阅读全帖 |
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k**L
发帖数: 3630 | 16 hahaha,笑死人啦.
The gun self-defense data comes from a report in the The Journal of Criminal
Law and Criminology, Northwestern University School of Law, (Fall 1995)
titled, "Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-
Defense With a Gun," by renowned criminologists Gary Kleck & Marc Gertz.
你的所谓的"用枪自卫数据"是从一个什么野鸡学院的某个叫兽1995年搞的survey出来的
.根本不是什么权威! 那篇文章里说的所有的相关数据,引申的其他的数据也全是survey
.也就是自己掏钱给私人公司问卷的.基本上可以肯定的是,没有任何官方的真实数据.
survey 你懂吗?就是雇个人打电话或站街上随便抓个人问的? 呵呵.我敢肯定如果那个
红脖被问到,至少会把自己说出蓝波第二,宇宙... 阅读全帖 |
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I*3
发帖数: 7012 | 17 看看原文后的评论也很有意思...
Guy Smith (Skeebo) wrote:
Rosenberg flubbed badly.
I have been studying gun control policy issues for over a decade (see www.
GunFacts.info). When he spouts non-sense like "not only were they not
protected against homicide, but the risk of gun homicide to people in those
households was 2.7 times greater than the households without a gun" he
admits to having never read the most basic criminology research available.
For example, Kleck and company determined that about 400,000 inst... 阅读全帖 |
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I*3
发帖数: 7012 | 18 Kleck and company determined that about 400,000 instanced of life-
threatening crime are prevented each year by gun owners.
嘿嘿...统计数据来了...400,000 !!!!!
看了一下, 再也没比这个数字大的了... 嘿嘿...
those |
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S**********s
发帖数: 4534 | 19 "...probably fewer than 3,000 criminals are lawfully killed by gun-
wielding victims each year,101 representing only about 1/1000 of the
number of DGUs, and less than 1% of the number of purportedly
life-saving DGUs. Therefore, the number of justifiable homicides
cannot serve as even a rough index of life-saving gun uses. Since
this
comparison does not involve any measured benefit, it can shed no
light on the benefits and costs of keeping guns in the ... 阅读全帖 |
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h*********2
发帖数: 2508 | 20 Probably among the more reliable is Kleck and Gertz's 1993 national survey,
which obtained an estimate of 2.5 million annual defensive gun uses,
excluding military and police uses and excluding uses against animals. Gun
users in 400,000 of these cases believe that the gun certainly or almost
certainly saved a life.
While survey respondents almost certainly overestimated their danger, if
even one tenth of them were correct, the number of lives saved by guns each
year would exceed the number of gu... 阅读全帖 |
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h*********r
发帖数: 1943 | 21 英国1997年之后将手枪禁掉，从此成为真正意义上的民众广泛无枪国，这算是大家都知
道的历史了。但是禁枪之后，犯罪率不降反升，短短十数载，已然成为泰晤士报和BBC
乃至全英国悲叹的“欧洲暴力犯罪率最高的国家”。
原因很简单，少了民众的武力制衡，暴徒就泛滥，犯罪成本极大的降低了，可能有枪的
民众歹徒侵犯之前要好好掂量一下自己的斤两，但是现在没枪了，胆子立刻肥了起来，
以前要在黑市花大价钱买枪才敢做的案子，三五英镑买把西瓜刀就能得手了。很可能也
是很多图表和统计上英国枪击案比例渐渐下降的原因——禁枪多年，再加上年年收缴，
百姓别说有枪，连枪是什么都快忘记了，杀鸡又何需用牛刀，子弹也比刀子贵啊。
同时伴随的却是暴力犯罪率的整体迅速上升，由以青少年一代蛊惑仔一样的犯罪盛行发
展，直到伦敦骚乱达到新的高峰。颇有稳坐欧洲暴利犯罪率第一把交椅的势头，暴力法
罪率超过美国和……以暴力犯罪而闻名的南非
很讽刺，收枪收到连自家的奥运会射击队都要出国培训的国家，自家的犯罪率居高不下
，全国的媒体还在惯性鼓吹枪支的邪恶，不知道最近刀械犯罪率升高是不是要开始鼓吹
刀具的邪恶。
英国的暴力犯罪到底上升了多少
How... 阅读全帖 |
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a**e
发帖数: 8800 | 23 "Evidence indicates that private gun use against violent criminals and
burglars is common and about as frequent as legal actions like arrests, is a
more prompt negative consequence of crime than legal punishment and is
often far more severe. In 1980 about 1,500-2,800 felons were legally killed
by gun-wielding civilians, about 8,700-16,000 were nonfatally wounded, and
guns were used defensively about one million times. Victim resistance with
guns is associated with lower rates of both victim inju... 阅读全帖 |
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O*******e
发帖数: 6055 | 24 【 以下文字转载自 GunsAndGears 讨论区 】
发信人: heavypanzer (HP), 信区: GunsAndGears
标 题: 欧洲暴力犯罪率最高国家的诞生——英国禁枪那些事儿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 20 19:02:13 2012, 美东)
英国1997年之后将手枪禁掉，从此成为真正意义上的民众广泛无枪国，这算是大家都知
道的历史了。但是禁枪之后，犯罪率不降反升，短短十数载，已然成为泰晤士报和BBC
乃至全英国悲叹的“欧洲暴力犯罪率最高的国家”。
原因很简单，少了民众的武力制衡，暴徒就泛滥，犯罪成本极大的降低了，可能有枪的
民众歹徒侵犯之前要好好掂量一下自己的斤两，但是现在没枪了，胆子立刻肥了起来，
以前要在黑市花大价钱买枪才敢做的案子，三五英镑买把西瓜刀就能得手了。很可能也
是很多图表和统计上英国枪击案比例渐渐下降的原因——禁枪多年，再加上年年收缴，
百姓别说有枪，连枪是什么都快忘记了，杀鸡又何需用牛刀，子弹也比刀子贵啊。
同时伴随的却是暴力犯罪率的整体迅速上升，由以青少年一代蛊惑仔一样的犯罪盛行发
展，直到伦敦骚乱达到新的高峰。颇有... 阅读全帖 |
|
x***m
发帖数: 298 | 25 我也支持，只是希望管制更有效，不是完全laisser faire。很多研究都表明了平民持
枪不是问题。这个方面非常有名的Gary Kleck所作的criminology中枪支相关研究发现
：“...in 1993 there were approximately 2.5 million incidents in which
victims used guns for self-protection, compared to about four hundred
thousand crimes committed by offenders with guns”
另外一个辩论队员也是支持持枪权的，但是我们抽签抽到了反对，没办法，必须全力去
比赛。 |
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O******n
发帖数: 1505 | 26 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Kleck
Kleck conducted a national survey in 1994 (the National Self-Defense Survey)
and, extrapolating from the 5,000 households surveyed, estimated that in
1993 there were approximately 2.5 million incidents in which victims used
guns for self-protection, an average of 4.75 times per minute for each
minute of the year, compared to about four hundred thousand crimes committed
by offenders with guns.[11] |
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H*******g
发帖数: 6997 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 GunsAndGears 讨论区 】
发信人: heavypanzer (HP), 信区: GunsAndGears
标 题: 欧洲暴力犯罪率最高国家的诞生——英国禁枪那些事儿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 20 19:02:13 2012, 美东)
英国1997年之后将手枪禁掉，从此成为真正意义上的民众广泛无枪国，这算是大家都知
道的历史了。但是禁枪之后，犯罪率不降反升，短短十数载，已然成为泰晤士报和BBC
乃至全英国悲叹的“欧洲暴力犯罪率最高的国家”。
原因很简单，少了民众的武力制衡，暴徒就泛滥，犯罪成本极大的降低了，可能有枪的
民众歹徒侵犯之前要好好掂量一下自己的斤两，但是现在没枪了，胆子立刻肥了起来，
以前要在黑市花大价钱买枪才敢做的案子，三五英镑买把西瓜刀就能得手了。很可能也
是很多图表和统计上英国枪击案比例渐渐下降的原因——禁枪多年，再加上年年收缴，
百姓别说有枪，连枪是什么都快忘记了，杀鸡又何需用牛刀，子弹也比刀子贵啊。
同时伴随的却是暴力犯罪率的整体迅速上升，由以青少年一代蛊惑仔一样的犯罪盛行发
展，直到伦敦骚乱达到新的高峰。颇有... 阅读全帖 |
|
O******n
发帖数: 1505 | 28 【 以下文字转载自 GunsAndGears 讨论区 】
发信人: heavypanzer (HP), 信区: GunsAndGears
标 题: 欧洲暴力犯罪率最高国家的诞生——英国禁枪那些事儿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 20 19:02:13 2012, 美东)
英国1997年之后将手枪禁掉，从此成为真正意义上的民众广泛无枪国，这算是大家都知
道的历史了。但是禁枪之后，犯罪率不降反升，短短十数载，已然成为泰晤士报和BBC
乃至全英国悲叹的“欧洲暴力犯罪率最高的国家”。
原因很简单，少了民众的武力制衡，暴徒就泛滥，犯罪成本极大的降低了，可能有枪的
民众歹徒侵犯之前要好好掂量一下自己的斤两，但是现在没枪了，胆子立刻肥了起来，
以前要在黑市花大价钱买枪才敢做的案子，三五英镑买把西瓜刀就能得手了。很可能也
是很多图表和统计上英国枪击案比例渐渐下降的原因——禁枪多年，再加上年年收缴，
百姓别说有枪，连枪是什么都快忘记了，杀鸡又何需用牛刀，子弹也比刀子贵啊。
同时伴随的却是暴力犯罪率的整体迅速上升，由以青少年一代蛊惑仔一样的犯罪盛行发
展，直到伦敦骚乱达到新的高峰。颇有... 阅读全帖 |
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