f**********4
发帖数: 2617 | 1 这个以我贫乏的想象力，还真没看出来有什么不可以的。但是，你能告诉我我infer出
来的你的逻辑是对的么？还是你还有别的判断依据？ |
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l********r
发帖数: 123 | 2 （轉自人人網）
現在壹些中國人，為了把成吉思汗吹成中國人，已經到了令人發指的地步。壹開始在教
科書上吹，鬧成了國際笑柄。後來又弄出了所謂“蒙古人起源於中國”“外蒙人是內蒙
人奴隸”的可笑謬論。而最近網絡上出現了壹段視頻，內容居然是上海復旦大學生命科
學學院教授李輝通過基因檢測斷定成吉思汗是的父系是漢人，而且還號稱在國際上發表
了相關論文。然後筆者就用英文搜索李輝對外發表的這篇論文，於是有趣的東西出現了。
以下就是上海復旦大學復旦大學生命科學學院教授王傳超和李輝在國際上對外發表的論
文中提及成吉思汗的部分：
---------------------
Inferring human history in East Asia from Y chromosomes
Chuan-Chao Wang and Hui Li*
Haplogroup O-M175 is the largest haplogroup in East Asia, comprising
roughly 75% of the Chinese and more than half of the Japanese populat... 阅读全帖 |
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y****e
发帖数: 419 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 PKU 讨论区 】
发信人: yaoyue (尧曰@ytht.net), 信区: PKU
标 题: 【肯尼亚考古侧记】肯尼亚考古——探寻先人足迹
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 14 00:04:52 2015, 北京)
【肯尼亚考古侧记】肯尼亚考古——探寻先人足迹
如果我们想要认识自己，也许最好的方式并非苦思冥想，而是反思自己的行为，观察自己
的过往。如果我们想要观察自己，也许最好的方式并不是照镜子，而是和别人一起照镜
子。如
果我们想要了解自己，我们便不能只是自言自语，沟通和交流从不可少。如果让我来总
结肯尼
亚考古的真正动因和最终意义，无论具体到对个人的影响，还是延展到这场关乎中华文
化的研
究，我或许都要归结于，走出自我，走向更广阔的世界，再重新回到自我，从而认识自
我。我
愿意相信这是六百年前郑和在印度洋流浪时内心的隐秘愿望，也是六百年后，我们奔赴
肯尼亚
开展一场探寻先人足迹的真实理由 。
缘起
于千万人中遇见你所要遇见的人，于千万年之中，时间的无涯的荒野里，没有早一步，也
没有晚一步，刚巧赶上了，那时也没有别的话，唯有轻轻地问一声：“... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 4 the same reason the return/motivation arguement can NOT be used to
infer that 这个简 MIGHT be faked as this type of argument can be
universally applied to any research topics.
if you suspect that 这个简 might be faked, you have to prvode specific
reasons ONLY applicable to this particular case. |
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D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | 5 添什么证据啊。你这图是测古代羊骨头测出来的？
要是测现代羊的基因，那结果叫inferred，知道这是什么意思吗？这叫推测，特别是间
接推测。我贴的nature文章是直接测古DNA，是硬货。你贴的那篇牛津校刊文章是测现
代羊的，搞的间接推测，你那个就是一摊稀货。 |
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D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | 6 添什么证据啊。你这图是测古代羊骨头测出来的？
要是测现代羊的基因，那结果叫inferred，知道这是什么意思吗？这叫推测，特别是间
接推测。我贴的nature文章是直接测古DNA，是硬货。你贴的那篇牛津校刊文章是测现
代羊的，搞的间接推测，你那个就是一摊稀货。 |
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q******j
发帖数: 577 | 7 Until the guard is convicted, he is assumed innocent. You should not infer
any culpability from the mere fact that the guard is arrested under criminal
charge.
发信人: DSJS (DSJS), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 黑龙江押钞员持枪当街射杀市民
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Apr 26 14:58:28 2010, 美东)
But the sohu news says the guard is currently under criminal arrest (xing
shi ju liu). I think this is a telling piece of information.
I just hope the street vendor gets what he deserved if justice is owed to
him. Apparently, further i |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 8 I have not made conviction on the guard. My whole point is that the
situation requires further investigation. Besides, I don't believe the guard
is unrestricted as far as his right to shoot is concerned. Yes, I do have
serious concern that the guard in this case may have abused his right. Is
there anything wrong with this?
Can I say the street vendor is also innocent until convicted? Too bad he is
already dead and loses ability to defend for himself.
infer
criminal |
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q******j
发帖数: 577 | 9 That's fine. Just do not use the fact of arrest to infer any wrong doing on
the part of the guard. That is just part of the investigation you required
and shows the local government is indeed following the legal procedure for
this deadly incident.
Remember, many guards have been killed in China by armed robbers even though
Chinese at large do not possess arms (and those robbers killed the guards
mercilessly). From the prima facie evidence, the guard involved here did
not shoot ramdomly to in |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 10 Jeffry John Aufderheide
vactruth.com
05/25/2010
http://vactruth.com/2010/05/25/vaccines-rockefeller-social-control/
PART I.
History books proclaim with absolute certainty that the pinnacle of public
health is defined by the polio vaccine program. Disease finally conquered by
science. The polio effort was a benchmark for the public to mentally accept
the concept “shots prevent disease.” However, hidden to most Americans
was an elaborate Public Relations scheme being carefully applied by
Rockefell... 阅读全帖 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 11 Inference other countries' internal affairs. |
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t*******o
发帖数: 424 | 12 correlation,no causal relation could be inferred |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 13 My comment:
(a) over the top (adj). The Phrase Finder, undated.
http://www.phrases.org.uk
/meanings/over-the-top.html
(b) There is something about J-20. Specifically, something wrong in the
latest wording among US media. I thought--and still think--reporter Jeremy
Page was too rosy about China's military strength--and believed what China
feeded him, propangada and that kind of stuff. Then I read his report
yesterday and was startled by the caption of the first photo. (The truth is,
I do not know... 阅读全帖 |
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t*s
发帖数: 1504 | 14 经过1小时的研究，我的初步结论是。。。俺暂时不信
但欢迎专家指导。
首先，个人认为不可能用实验证明人类活动造成全球变暖
1. 没有长期数据 （上千上万年的，几十年在地球历史上算个屁）
2. 没有对照组
理论上有可能证明，比如，专家提出基于温室气体的数学模型，然后发现和现实完全吻
合。
Google了一下，发现UCSD的学者号称 nailed it (用上述方法）
上了此学者首页 (tim barnett), 发现以下相关文章
Detection and attribution of recent climate change: A status report.
读了abstract, 发现
作者号称not confident
Most, but not all, results suggest that recent changes in global climate
inferred from surface air temperature are likely
not due solely to natural causes. At present it is not possi... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********g
发帖数: 791 | 15 "to your point, i think if i were the russians, at that time i would try to
also land on the moon and prove that americans faked the whole thing - that'
s pretty obvious to me - if the russians had any doubt about the moon
landing at all - however the fact that they didn't do it said a lot "
your english is pretty good, but i don't quite follow the logical inference.
for example, " think if i were the russians, at that time i would try to
also land on the moon and prove that americans faked the ... 阅读全帖 |
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s********i
发帖数: 17328 | 16 逻辑很清楚，如果苏联科研人员想要funding，说美国登月是假的更能要来钱。
很显然，你说的两点，苏联人都认为是真的。
to
that'
inference. |
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c**********9
发帖数: 77 | 17 这段儿最精彩...
Armstrong then tried to infer that Howe, himself, had a history of
participating in riots.
"I have never taken part in a single riot," Howe snapped. "I've been part of
demonstrations that have ended up in a conflict. Have some respect for old
West Indian Negro, and stop accusing me of being a rioter.
As the segment concluded, he added: "You sound like an idiot." |
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w****2
发帖数: 12072 | 18 【 以下文字转载自 CS 讨论区 】
发信人: wlwl12 (戒网), 信区: CS
标 题: Stevey's Google Platforms Rant
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 14 14:56:59 2011, 美东)
Stevey's Google Platforms Rant
I was at Amazon for about six and a half years, and now I've been at Google
for that long. One thing that struck me immediately about the two companies
-- an impression that has been reinforced almost daily -- is that Amazon
does everything wrong, and Google does everything right. Sure, it's a
sweeping generalization, but a surprisingly acc... 阅读全帖 |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 19 First of all, this accident is NOT a random sample as you presume. Secondly,
the sample size of 19 people is simply way too low to predict a population
as large as 1.4 billion.
You may randomly select a reasonable number of cases from a pool of total
accidents in mainland in a given year and see if immoral behavior is
significantly present in these cases.
However, Even if the result is significant, we can only cautiously conclude
that the vehicle drivers in the situation of accident are more lik... 阅读全帖 |
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h***i
发帖数: 3844 | 20 这事他搞不定，
唐骏那是有真凭实据，
这事情就靠这些inference没用，顶多给出个造假的概率。 |
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s******3
发帖数: 7297 | 21 Someone hacked into airline company's system. Their systems are usually not
that secure.
Anyway, this means nothing. We can infer Wang Lijun is at Beijing because he
was taken by the National Security Department. |
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T*****y
发帖数: 18592 | 22 摆明了绝大部分人不会说“幸福”
这样下来，inference是什么，谁都想得到 |
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Y****g
发帖数: 662 | 23 Fake palm tree makes residents scared
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2012/11/16/cell-towers-near-home
Cell Towers Near Homes? Battle in Mesa, Ariz., Typifies Fears Nationwide
By Krisanne Alcantara | Posted Nov 16th 2012 7:05PM
33 Comments
513376011
Share on Tumblr
Though palm trees evoke an idyllic desert oasis, that's hardly the case for
frustrated residents of Mesa, Ariz. That's because a "palm tree" set to be
planted in the Phoenix suburb isn't what it seems: It's a camouflaged
cellular tow... 阅读全帖 |
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x**********n
发帖数: 852 | 24 发信人: bushel (失乐园), 信区: Statistics
标 题: 求书Hogg & Tanis 的 Probability and Statistical Inference 8
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 5 20:02:23 2012, 美东)
老婆上课要，叫我去找教材。有没有哪位老大有pdf版的给我发一个？
p******[email protected]
多谢了。 |
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s**i
发帖数: 4448 | 25 The trial of Scott Peterson for the murders of his wife Laci and their
unborn child Conner is a classic example of a prosecution based almost
solely on circumstantial evidence, rather than direct evidence.
Circumstantial evidence is evidence which may allow a judge or jury to
deduce a certain fact from other facts which can be proven. In some cases,
there can be some evidence that can not be proven directly, such as with an
eye-witness.
In these cases, the prosecution will attempt to provide evi... 阅读全帖 |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 26 孙维是犯人概率可能超95%
P(A|B)=P(B|A) * P (A) / P(B)
其中A为孙维不是罪犯的概率，B={朱令铊中毒，以及所有证据和数据}
这个不难，尤其是对于mitbbs的精英们。
最后要是P(A|B)<5%，也就是说孙维不可能是罪犯的可能性小于5%，我觉得就可以
1.上书党中央
2.把这件事继续扩散开来
如果孙维不是罪犯，可以多多少少还她一个清白，
如果她是，大家心中就已经把谈判了死刑 |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 27 正反两方吵来吵去有何意义，谁都不服气，算一下1.公平2.有说服力 |
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b***y
发帖数: 14281 | 30 good joke
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7 |
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z*******3
发帖数: 13709 | 31 可以是可以，问题是样本呢？
总共铊中毒案件也就是100多起
当时发生的时候，是中国第一例
你去哪里找样本做抽样？ |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 32 不要看不起nerd.你用的facebook, windows, mac 现在能够上网，都是nerd搞的
中国人缺乏这种严谨的态度，所以中国科学落后，所以你今天才有机会出国 |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 34 你没听懂我在说什么，或者你没学过统计，甚至概率 |
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T****r
发帖数: 22092 | 35 如果你说铊投毒，那可能是第一例，至少先前的没有被记录。
但是你说是中毒第一例，这个肯定不是第一例。 |
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z*******3
发帖数: 13709 | 36 也行，那我们挑最简单的一个来说
P (A)
你说说这个概率怎么算出来 |
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z*******3
发帖数: 13709 | 37 B={朱令铊中毒，以及所有证据和数据}
楼主的定义是铊中毒
光这一点，P(B)~=0了
这样这个model就有问题了 |
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j****n
发帖数: 7636 | 38 P(B|A) 也~0， 所以那个比率还是可以算的。 |
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t*******n
发帖数: 1553 | 40 请问Likelihood function form 是什么？ |
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d*****u
发帖数: 17243 | 41 不管是likelihood， prior，还是normalization term都无从说起 |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 42 全都可以量化的，而且每个都可以根据大家投票得到一个p value |
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s******3
发帖数: 7297 | 44 他不是骂nerd，而是觉得用这种方法破案很荒唐。假设95%概率是杀人犯，你让法官怎
么量刑？ |
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C****0
发帖数: 53 | 45 没有人说要去量刑，大家最后清楚一个概率就可以了。 |
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c**********u
发帖数: 7276 | 47 不懂科学的不好办，嘿嘿。
没有学过事件的dependence关系啊。 dependence强的，因果就强，没有dependence的
，就没有因果。跟朱令案和她本人dependence越强，收到的因果报应就越大。报应不好
听，换一个说法，这个过程叫causal inference.
跟你扯科学吧，你可能说我装。 我换个普世的说法吧，你说我神棍。奶奶的，做人真
难。 |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 48 说的文明点学术点
你这叫FALSE STATISTICS INFERENCE
比方说拿月亮圆缺来联系股市牛熊
说的不文明点
如果您的贵姓史上出过一败类人渣,那您也不幸成为败类人渣了... |
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s*****r
发帖数: 11545 | 49 I don't know. But I guess the default rule should be that public resources
belong to the country and a license is impliedly required under regulation
unless all the people have equal opportunity of enjoyment and bear
substantially similar responsibility, otherwsie it is unfair to others.
There might not be a sepcific ordinance demanding a fishing license, but it
can be reasonably inferred from the law by a good citizen. |
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r********n
发帖数: 7441 | 50 黑人替zimmerman辩解，白人为此很愤慨，发表了一通观点在任何空间都绝对正确的演
说，大意就是人们不应该用肤色，年龄，人种来做indicator来武断地infer一些事情，
然后黑人继续辩解说zimmerman 当时并不知道那个小黑是个黑人，白人发彪了说，从他
的穿着上和走路姿势上你还看不出来他是个黑人吗？。。。。lol |
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