b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 1 Herd mentality and herd behavior have been prevalent descriptors for human
behavior since people began to form tribes, migrate in groups, and perform
cooperative marketing and agricultural functions. The idea of a "group mind"
or "mob behavior" was first put forward by 19th-century French social
psychologists Gabriel Tarde and Gustave Le Bon. Herd behavior in human
societies has also been studied by Sigmund Freud and Wilfred Trotter, whose
book Herd Instincts in Peace and War is a classic in the... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 2 http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/cull+the+herd
cull the herd. 1. Literally, to separate or remove (and usually kill)
inferior animals out of a herd so as to reduce numbers or remove undesirable
traits from the group as a whole. We had to quickly cull the herd when it
came to light that some cows might be carrying an infectious disease. |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 3 【 以下文字转载自 HardTimeCall 俱乐部 】
发信人: XXLBass (大巴司机), 信区: HardTimeCall
标 题: Herd Mentality - 人多勿去
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 4 22:36:37 2012, 美东)
这个“Herd Mentality”是从Chinook那里看到的，他的原帖里的意思我不大懂，但这
里说说我的一些体会。
6/1礼拜五大跌，那天国债利率也大跌。在此之前我在茶馆和chinook俱乐部都转过一篇
关于国债利率和股市的历史关系的帖子，里面提了两者息差扩大的历史数据。基于当时
股市的超卖和那篇数据凿凿的文章，我有了想捞底的直觉。6/1那天上午开盘走势不对
劲的时候我就想好了收盘捞底，果然当天一跌到底，我在盘后用40%的资金在43的价位
捞了TNA，这个交易都实时贴在了茶馆里。那时候的想法是，如果周一再跌，尾盘再60%
加仓TNA。
周末我就开始在网上四处转悠看评论了，我主要看的有几个market guru，第一个是
Doug Kass，他果然有文章，文章里说他chicken了，周五只是加了1%的多仓，... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********r
发帖数: 695 | 4 比如很多红脖神棍说，我们小孩不打疫苗，你看我们不是也不得病
实际上，他们小孩子不得病，是因为很多小孩都打了疫苗，即便碰到病原菌也不会发病
，不会成为传染源，所以相当于变相保护了没打疫苗的小孩
这叫herd immunity
所以，他们打算把老人都躲起来，等外面人全部感染一圈完了，再把老人放出来
基本就是胡扯。正常的herd immunity是靠疫苗实现的，不是让正常人感染一圈得肺炎
再恢复用的。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 5 什么叫herd 牲口群才叫herd
简直狼心狗肺丧尽天良
今天应该看清楚谁不把人当人 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 6 看起来大家的命还是不如钱来得重要。
总统，和联邦央行连续死命给股市充血，还是扶不起来。
不如让股市也来个HERD STOCK，让它来个自由落体，估计也不见得会多跌多少，你们说
呢？
一会儿降利息，一会儿往债市里加钱，够忙的。就没看见怎么给控制瘟疫里加钱想办法
。 |
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j*****n
发帖数: 3617 | 7 Newark 的chuck e cheese被抢了，在场有很多小朋友。
what a shame！
http://www.mercurynews.com/crime-courts/ci_16613949?source=rss
ReprintPrint Email Font Resize
Newark: Gunmen herd 40 people, including kids, into storeroom during robbery
of Chuck E. Cheese restaurant
Bay Area News Group
Posted: 11/14/2010 08:59:16 PM PST
Updated: 11/14/2010 09:55:39 PM PST
Three men armed with handguns robbed a busy Chuck E. Cheese's restaurant on
Mowry School Road Saturday night.
Police began receiving 911 calls about t... 阅读全帖 |
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b********w
发帖数: 157 | 8 muffin herding还是很温柔很文明的，上次看到cesar让只狗去herding,那真是下嘴咬
阿，可怜的羊啊。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 10 瞎说 老子今天才听说herd immunity
大惊失色 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 11 盲流效应(herding effect)里也是这个字 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 12 牧师都是把教众叫做herd，一看你去教会就光吃了buffet，人家说什么根本不进耳朵 |
|
|
发帖数: 1 | 14 Social distancing 跟 Herd immunity 互相矛盾！
既然要群体免疫，神马distancing都是在反方向做无用功，逻辑上说不通！ |
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c***s
发帖数: 4895 | 15 Social distancing减缓传染的节奏，降低对医疗资源的冲击
控制住了，然后靠Herd immunity过关 |
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发帖数: 1 | 16 还是不对，distancing了就没法传播病毒了。那哪来的immunity？
: Social distancing减缓传染的节奏，降低对医疗资源的冲击
: 控制住了，然后靠Herd immunity过关
|
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 18 sorry I haven't read these books.
If investors herd, the stock price movement won't be "random walk". So "
Irrational Exuberance" and "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" (just judging
from the title since I haven't read them) may have totally different
perspective on investing-- the former based on inefficient market hypothesis
, the latter based on EMH.
way |
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 19 Actually positive feedback loop exists in the market (due to herding,
leverage, limited arbitrate, etc). the market boom & bust cycle (and the "
black swan" tail events) is just the manifestation of it. IMHO, recent
democratization of the stock market (discount brokerage with low txn cost,
index fund, leveraged ETF, access to futures & options) increases the
frequency of the cycle. For example, if most retail investors a) believe
shorting the financial sector stocks is a sure-bet and b) have eas |
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J***n
发帖数: 426 | 20 三个臭皮匠顶一个诸葛亮
这句俗话好像是说herd mentality is superior to individual intelligence |
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q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | 21 把自己的交易心态写出来分析一下，这点很好。
一个交易者成长的过程，必然是有过follow 牛人，有过herd mentality
的阶段，这点本身不能说明什么，这本身就是成长的代价。
当自己判断出现错误时，修补自己的短板是当务之急，这时已经事过境迁了，
再从心理上分析本身价值不大，因为心里的因素完全可能重复。 |
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i*****s
发帖数: 15215 | 22 【 以下文字转载自 Animals 讨论区 】
发信人: iForpus (coelestis), 信区: Animals
标 题: 新牧马人的工作生活照
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 22 17:49:46 2012, 美东)
New nomads have revived the national style of farm management with no
scientific innovations just following the call of nature. In late spring
they move to meadows with all their animals and in late fall they come back.
It takes 3 days and 2 nights to get to green meadows. Through valleys,
rivers and mountains.
Winter stay in Buguty in the Almaty region.
Local influential ... 阅读全帖 |
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n********h
发帖数: 13135 | 23 我看过一个儿科医生写的治疗哮喘，自闭，多动和过敏的书，对，这本书就治疗好几个
病。这个医生就主张疫苗有害论，当然他还批评了很多现代饮食的，比如他主张不吃牛
奶制品，不吃面食。
有一批不打疫苗的家长，担心打了，特别是MMR，会引起自闭。比如我认识的一个人，
他家老大自闭（算是高智商的自闭），就没给老二打疫苗。 他确实噌了我们的HERD
IMMUNITY， 但是我也很难坚持就算你家娃可能自闭，也必须打疫苗来保证HERD
IMMUNITY。
麻疹的RISK，是耳聋，死亡，而且死亡率不低。现在因为疫苗HERD IMMUNITY 和卫生条
件提高，现在的麻疹的都没有几个，一般人基本没听说过死亡，耳聋的例子。另一方面
，自闭的孩子越来越多，人们就宁可相信疫苗有害论，怕孩子自闭。
假如说完全不打疫苗，可能很多孩子根本活不过一岁。就算疫苗真有害，大家的选择就
是你宁可孩子自闭，过敏也要孩子活下来，还是宁可孩子死也不要自闭，过敏。 还有
一个问题，如何协调这两种人群。 因为一岁以下的孩子不能接种，必须靠HERD
IMMUNITY, 而且孩子越小病就越凶险。就算宁可孩子自闭也要孩子活下来的人也要靠
HER... 阅读全帖 |
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r*****8
发帖数: 2560 | 24 “herd immunity”对国家强化免疫那些病基本上是没用的。
举几个例子，破伤风本身就不是传染病，就不存在“herd immunity”.
乙肝，人群中有大量的携带者，谁不接种疫苗谁倒霉。
美国的肺炎（PCV）、中国的肺结核都还在人群里大量流行。
这些病都是国家想控制，而控制不住的疾病。等到疾病控制住了，也就不在国家强化免
疫的名单里了，那时候，你就可以享受herd immunity了，大家也都享受herd immunity
了。
了。 |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 25 MARY HOLLAND: All vaccines, like prescription drugs, are considered
unavoidably unsafe. They carry known risks and unknown risks. There’s no
question that death is caused by some vaccines to some children, and severe
injury, brain damage in particular. That’s indisputable. And for that
reason, industry and the medical profession were given by Congress virtually
blanket liability protection. So we have now an industry with high profits
and exceedingly low litigation risks. I think that should set... 阅读全帖 |
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A*****8
发帖数: 8590 | 26 对头。看看他们比赛时候的描写：
The two hunters rode side by side until the first herd was sighted and the
word given, when off they dashed to the attack, separating to the right and
left. In this first trial Will killed thirty-eight and Comstock twenty-three
. They had ridden miles, and the carcasses of the dead buffaloes were strung
all over the prairie. Luncheon was served at noon, and scarcely was it over
when another herd was sighted, composed mainly of cows with their calves.
The damage to this herd was e... 阅读全帖 |
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l******8
发帖数: 9475 | 27 很多大型犬, 大的, 好的Breders就是在后院盖个狗窝, 然后把狗放在里面的. 也没
见谁去谴责, 去抗议.
在清藏高原上, 狗一年四季在外面, 冬天零下几十度的低温.
养工作犬不是养热带鱼.
http://www.petplace.com/dogs/top-dog-breeds-for-life-outdoors/p
Top Dog Breeds for Life Outdoors
Due to space limitations or personal preference, some people choose to have
their dogs live the majority of their lives outdoors. Some dogs do better
than others as an outdoor dog.
Curly coated retriever. This retriever is a hardy dog that loves water. His
thick coat gives him protection from the har... 阅读全帖 |
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y*********u
发帖数: 14561 | 28 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
laosong8 (吃喝玩乐坐汽车) 于 (Fri Jul 18 13:12:23 2014, 美东) 提到:
很多大型犬, 大的, 好的Breders就是在后院盖个狗窝, 然后把狗放在里面的. 也没
见谁去谴责, 去抗议.
在清藏高原上, 狗一年四季在外面, 冬天零下几十度的低温.
养工作犬不是养热带鱼.
http://www.petplace.com/dogs/top-dog-breeds-for-life-outdoors/p
Top Dog Breeds for Life Outdoors
Due to space limitations or personal preference, some people choose to have
their dogs live the majority of their lives outdoors. Some dogs do better
than others as an outdoor dog.
Curly coated retrie... 阅读全帖 |
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A*****8
发帖数: 8590 | 29 估计是一个团队吧？那时侯，野牛也多啊。看看他们比赛时候的描写：
The two hunters rode side by side until the first herd was sighted and the
word given, when off they dashed to the attack, separating to the right and
left. In this first trial Will killed thirty-eight and Comstock twenty-three
. They had ridden miles, and the carcasses of the dead buffaloes were strung
all over the prairie. Luncheon was served at noon, and scarcely was it over
when another herd was sighted, composed mainly of cows with their calves.
The damage to... 阅读全帖 |
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i*****s
发帖数: 15215 | 30 放狗了，自己看
Zoe is Oreo's filly, born 9-16-98 on the Island of Molokai before we could
move Oreo to our sanctuary. She is extremely rare.
Her unusual color is due to her having "amelanosis". She is not an albino.
She has striking gold stripes and blue eyes. In horses, there is a similar
condition called "Lethal White Foal Syndrome" which is associated with the
occurrence of other serious birth defects. Although this color variation
occasionally occurs in wild herds, the animals would likely survive ... 阅读全帖 |
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i*****s
发帖数: 15215 | 31 俄罗斯北部的Yamalo Nents自治区居民以放牧驯鹿为生，这里有60万头驯鹿。体型硕大
的成年驯鹿很温和，会像猫一样打呼噜。这个系列是城里人乘直升飞机去体验相对原始
的生活方式。
It’s the herders camp in Krasnoselkup village in the Yamalo-Nents
Autonomous District of Russia. This place is often called “the region of
untold fur wealth”. We are going to see now how real herders live and work.
Mi-8T is loaded with necessary stuff for the camp.
There are no usual roads here, only winter roads which can be used only in
winter.
These are abandoned heliports.
The girl is ready to meet m... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****r
发帖数: 7130 | 32 这个在现代社会不用，你知道为什么不用吗？因为herd immunity，如果大家都打疫苗
，即使在某些人身上不产生抗体，凭借herd immunity，整个population都是安全的。
如果大家都不打疫苗，那有没有抗体对个体就很重要，不能产生足够抗体的人就倒霉了。
你觉得我说你不懂herd immunity侮辱你了，可是你回帖表现出来的，确实不太懂这个
概念啊。一会说鼓吹疫苗的人自私，一会又说打完疫苗还需要check抗体。 |
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n********h
发帖数: 13135 | 33 因为HERD IMMUNITY， 你家感染的风险比那些一岁以下的孩子可能还要小。
真正不能忍受自己利益受一点儿损伤的恰好是你们这样的人。 占着HERD IMMUNITY的好
处，最大化自己孩子的利益，然后来一句感谢都没有。全盘否定HERD IMMUNITY |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 34 与时俱进。达尔文那时候对人类会发明各种影响后代生存的技术，没有任何概念或实验
证据。比如转基因农作物吧，他老先生根本不会预测到：转基因大豆和棉花在地球上的
数量在十几年内就几乎把其天然 counterpart 给斩尽杀绝了。
毛主席的愚公移山的论点，不是没有道理的。人类正以其“大无畏”的精神，在改变地
球！
当然，达尔文也不可能预测到：韩国美容业的发展，对遗传天然美女产生的副作用（比
如某著名美女的孩子，奇丑无比）。
换句说法：达尔文没有想到人类可以有本事给自己加上自身基因之外利于生存的特质；
而且可以持续地加；并利用这种特质来提高部分人类的生存能力。
不知道谁鄙视了谁？难道不能学学阿Q吗？
您是说下面这位ID不该鄙视别人？？
我知道在现在社会里，隔离不打疫苗的家庭和孩子是完全不现实的。所以我更鄙视“蹭
”herd immunity的人，说白了，如果他们生活在非洲，他们敢什么都不给孩子接种吗？
还是这个ID？
那些反疫苗的人一边占着herd immunity的便宜，一边大扁herd immunity,同时也给因
为种种特殊原因而无法打疫苗的人带来无限灾难。绝对的鄙视之！ |
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h******2
发帖数: 1498 | 35 That's unfortunately the basic human nature. Majority of the population,
regardless of race/culture, is indifferent. When a lion attacks a herd, the
herd can easily kill the lion if they act together; but on the contrary,
each runs for its own life, and the lion always makes a kill. People are
herds. |
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b******a
发帖数: 12216 | 36 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kenter (sphinx) 于 (Sun Jan 16 13:40:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
狗狗回来一周了，上周一做的检查，体重为13磅。现在的食量控制在每天2杯BUPPY
FOOD外加一些TREAT。这个体重好像比网上的GSD成长体重要低，不过BREEDER说要适当
的控制。还想说欧洲系的德牧要成熟的慢一些。
现在知道要便便的时候会叫，在外面溜达一会就解决完，完了还不忘问我要TREAT。耳
朵已经竖起来一只了，另外一只也差不多了，这个还相比一般的要快。
现在最烦的是咬人，由于牙齿长长了一些，要的比以前疼多了。试了一些方法好像多不
是很管用，他老是好了伤疤忘了痛。有时候还以为我在和他玩，要得更狠。不知道版上
的有什么更好的办法，谢谢。
BTW，谁告诉我怎么传照片？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
laosong8 (吃喝玩乐坐汽车) 于 (Sun Jan 16 14:09:28 2011, 美东) 提到:
发帖或回复时可看到:... 阅读全帖 |
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t******g
发帖数: 3641 | 37 我们这到处都是
应该也属于herd dog
不过感觉应该还行
看你生活是不是够active了，couch potato肯定搞不定这个狗
herd dog一般比较shy从小要多social
家里如果有猫有小小孩要小心，他们本性会追逐（herd） |
|
c**********h
发帖数: 496 | 38 Euthyphro. Why have you left the Lyceum, Socrates? and what are you doing in
the Porch of the King Archon? Surely you cannot be concerned in a suit
before the King, like myself?
Socrates. Not in a suit, Euthyphro; impeachment is the word which the
Athenians use.
Euth. What! I suppose that some one has been prosecuting you, for I cannot
believe that you are the prosecutor of another.
Soc. Certainly not.
Euth. Then some one else has been prosecuting you?
Soc. Yes.
Euth. And who is he?
Soc. A young... 阅读全帖 |
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z***c
发帖数: 2959 | 39 Let me give an example.
Herding behavioral is longly believed to be irrational. But if you read
Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (1992) you will see it is indeed
rational. The idea is beatiful and model is unbelievably simple.
The following research has such a timeline:
1. Application of their idea in many settings
2. Relaxing a key assumption in two different ways, herding disappear.
3. Try to add some new feature, the herding re-appear.
In 3, a paper by Avery and Zemsky just add another lay |
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m***n
发帖数: 12188 | 40 黄帝是类似出圣经的埃及记，士师记那样的传说，不是确定的历史。
而且文明史也不是用人物传记和征战外交的历史来计算的。就算黄帝炎帝蚩尤全是真的
，谁知道其文明程度如何呢? 为何不是如成吉思汗大战扎木哈那样的事? 或者一群非
洲酋长在盘肠大战? 这样的战斗肯定很多很多。
仰韶文化是公元前5000的，所谓的彩陶文化，后来的龙山在陶器技术和艺术上是古文明
的颠峰，所谓的eggshell porcelain，具体有什么社会什么国家说不清楚，但是已经可
以和两河流域类比了
夏朝即使不存在，也只是说不存在大一统帝国，但是希腊文明一直是城邦，从来没有大
帝国。两河流域第一次完全统一是波斯，也只是波斯帝国第一次达到商朝的疆域规模。
抄一本比较有名的著作: (Lee, 1982): A history of Far Eastern art
说:
彩陶文化与黑陶文化，painted pottery(黄河上游，黄土高原), black pottery（山东
，浙江），1953年在西安附近发现的半坡遗址，被西方学者称为type-site of Chinese
Neolithic culture，为公元前5000... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****1
发帖数: 666 | 41 常家蹲还是重复他的念咒一般的老生常谈，根本不值一提。
可读是读者的评论。
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/29/the_coming_col
MESS_MEDIA
9:18 PM ET
December 29, 2011
Yeah, I was wrong when I
Yeah, I was wrong when I predicted that the world would end on May 21, 2011.
It should end on October 21.
-Harold Camping
REPLY
JOESMITHII
2:44 AM ET
December 30, 2011
I guess, sooner or later,
I guess, sooner or later, Gordon will get used to admitting wrong
predictions. Fortunately, 2012 is around the corner, we don't need to wa... 阅读全帖 |
|
P*****t
发帖数: 4978 | 42 Mad Cow Disease Confirmed In California Dairy Cow, USDA Says
Mad Cow Disease Confirmed In California Dairy Cow, USDA Says
Posted: 04/24/2012 3:08 pm Updated: 04/24/2012 3:47 pm
Share on Google+
Mad Cow Disease California
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w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 43 这是Shorter Oxford American English Dictionary第五版列出的与德语或者日耳曼语
相关的英语词根或词汇。
-at, suffix2. + -dom, suffix. + -ed, suffix1. + -ed, suffix2. + -en, suffix1
+ -en, suffix2 + -en, suffix5 + -en, suffix6 + -er, suffix1. + -er, suffix3
. + -er, suffix5. + -est, suffix1. + -est, suffix2. + -et, suffix2. + -eth,
suffix1. + -hood, suffix. + -ing, suffix1. + -ing, suffix3. + -ish, suffix1.
+ -kin, suffix. + -le, suffix1 + -le, suffix3 + -less, suffix. + -ling,
suffix1. + -ling, suffix2 + -ly, suffix1. + -ly, s... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 44 原来1967年印军就曾经把解放军打得流鼻血，阿三牛逼
The last Sikkim stand-off: When India gave China a bloody nose in 1967
The 1967 incident marked the last incident of casualties on both sides in
the Sikkim sector. And the last death in any sector of the India-China
border was in 1975 at Tulung La, and that was by accident, when two patrols
were lost in the fog.
The last time India and China were engaged in a major military stand-off
in Sikkim was in 1967.
On that instance, just five years after India's traum... 阅读全帖 |
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W*****B
发帖数: 4796 | 45 乌兰巴托？
Life in the Most Polluted Capital in the World
Joseph Hincks
By Joseph Hincks | Photographs by Zhang Chi for TIME | Video by Zhang Chi,
Aria Chen and Arpita Aneja
It’s 11 below (-24C) outside but the stove is burning and baby Almasbek
Toltalkhan is warm in his family’s yurt. His mother, Nursaule, scoops him
from a crib engraved with pictures of coconut palms and joggles him on her
knee while the doctor readies his shot.
At 11 months old, Almasbek is just past the nebulous state of babyhood... 阅读全帖 |
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z******i
发帖数: 986 | 46 原文题目是: Real Hope For Cattle Producers as China Allows Import of US Beef
《真诚的希望中国能允许进口美国牛肉产品》 - 06/21/2017
Cattle ranchers may be seeing a light at the end of what’s been a pretty
long, dark tunnel as China agrees to allow the import of U.S. beef for the
first time in almost 14 years.
China’s recent decision was part of a bi-lateral trade agreement
tentatively reached when President Trump and China’s President Xi Jingping
met last April. Precedence for the agreement occurred last Se... 阅读全帖 |
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p***n
发帖数: 17190 | 47 https://www.eco-business.com/news/millions-of-small-pig-farmers-in-asia-
threatened-by-swine-fever-outbreak/
Millions of small pig farmers in Asia threatened by swine fever outbreak
Measures to halt swine flu’s spread, such as limiting the transportation of
pork, risks destroying the livelihoods of families who lack the expertise
and funds to protect their herds.
swine flu
Six-week old swine and hogs. Image: CAFNR, CC BY-SA 2.0
Thomson Reuters Foundation
Wednesday 3 July 2019
Millions of small-s... 阅读全帖 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 48 这关系显然搞颠倒了。大家命都快没了，要钱干嘛？怎么可能不跌？
如果把瘟疫给搞定了，股市自然反弹。
显然总统和FED没搞明白里面的因果关系。 |
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