发帖数: 1 | 1 叼哒哒早预料到这一点，所以很早下令赶快复工，各地必须0增长，光阳性不算，自己
不开俩会，p民herds给我免疫 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 1998 | 4 纽约人口近千万, 现在4万多人确诊, 无症状者假设80%, 总共也不过20万左右感染, 感
染率不过2%, 离herd immunity 还早的很 |
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发帖数: 1 | 5 然后乘以百分之一差不多就是死亡人数的极限了。
每年一亿六千万 doseage, 大概死一百六十万。
而如果严格控制，从昨天开始，大概死亡六万人。按照中国的模型。
所以我的猜测是介于之间，乘积开根号，大概率死亡25万人。
我承认这个数字比较保守。 |
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s*****n
发帖数: 1998 | 6 警察上街劝退乱逛的人
出动无人机跟违反规则的人谈心
但是有点晚了, 还是herd immunity 更靠铺 |
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d*********o
发帖数: 6388 | 7 http://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/27/students-try-to-flee-uk-by
-chartered-plane-for-safer-china
上周，来自卡迪夫、伯明翰、华威、伦敦大学学院和爱丁堡等大学的70名中国学生利用
微信群，与家长们一起，包下了原定于周五出发的南航航班，从伦敦希思罗机场飞往广
州。但随着中国出台新的航班限制，学生们得知，他们将不能再飞了。
一名来自伯明翰大学的学生说，他打算乘坐这趟航班，每人要花2000英镑左右。"我想
回去，因为中国采取了有效的抗病毒措施，比如关闭武汉、湖北等地的医院，建设新的
医院。这让我对中国的医疗充满了信心。"
这名要求匿名的学生以类似的价格买了一张标准的机票，在包机上并没有损失钱，但他
说，如果只有和其他中国学生一起旅行，他会觉得更安全。"在这一点上，我们更关心
的是安全，而不是钱。"他说。
已回国的伦敦某大学硕士生黄乔说。"就在鲍里斯-约翰逊（Boris Johnson）说英国需
要herd免疫来对抗疫情的时候，我的大学里有人被诊断出患有Covid-19，这让我... 阅读全帖 |
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a****i
发帖数: 4783 | 8 这个病靠治疗是不可能成功的，最后的结果必然是医疗挤兑，死亡率10%。
要么和中韩一样死守严防，要么就和大阴蒂国一样herd immunity。 |
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c***s
发帖数: 4895 | 10 除了鑫胖，直接灭掉感染源，其他的办法都只能是尽量减少 |
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发帖数: 1 | 11 你就说说，大家都猫家里要怎么传播病毒
: 除了鑫胖，直接灭掉感染源，其他的办法都只能是尽量减少
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发帖数: 1 | 12 狗粮尿遁了？
炖炖炖
: 除了鑫胖，直接灭掉感染源，其他的办法都只能是尽量减少
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w*********5
发帖数: 87 | 14 我估计的是百分之九十的感染者不需要住院，他们是无症状或者轻症者，在医院外面就
是一个个的传染源，我们看过武汉的例子，像李文亮的眼科医生全部感染，有好几个医
生死了，这可证实的少量样本死亡率接近百分之五十，其它的数据反而都不太可信，还
有很多家庭隔离的都是一家人一家人的感染，最后是全武汉封城封区封户甚至夫妻隔离
持续那么长时间才算控制住。
美国的国情没办法做到那样，并且纽约那些地方应该已经过了可控的临界点，中国牺牲
了服务业还有很多制造业养活整个国家，美国大部分是服务业，没有办法像中国那样把
大部分服务业长时间掐掉，服务业一复工又会死灰复燃。。直到全民大部分都感染。
英国佬一开始就推herd immunity，像英美这样以服务业为主的国家，面对这个病毒没
有更好的办法。所以一开始trump administration 才会那样故意不重视，现在了也就
是忽悠忽悠安抚安抚广大群众，该怎么样还得怎么样。 我估计百分之五十感染率都算
是比较保守了。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 15 那头文盲sb在鸦片国放弃herd“疗法”两周后还在给“群体免疫”吹箫 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 16 大英帝国是HERD IMMUNITY，有钱有势的可以测试，可以治疗，穷人就是在家等死。
所以看到中国的医疗队去了，就如同看到了仇人。 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 17 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leigh-vinocur-md/oral-sex-cancer_
HPV From Oral Sex? Young People Often Underestimate The Risk
Ironically, April is both Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD) Awareness month
as well as Oral, Head and Neck Cancer Awareness month. Many people don't
even realize how these two diseases are linked and how they both pose a
serious health risk, especially for our adolescent boys.
As far as STDs, according to the United States Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC),... 阅读全帖 |
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m******8
发帖数: 2153 | 18 US scientific study claims male dolphins are bisexual
Research scientists at the University of Massachusetts have concluded that
male dolphins conduct intense social relationships and are found to engage
in extensive bisexuality.
The researchers studied more than 120 bottlenose dolphins in Shark Bay,
Western Australia, and discovered relationships of a considerably more
complex nature than previously thought. Co-author of the study, Richard
Connor, told Discovery News that the dolphins engaged i... 阅读全帖 |
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E*V
发帖数: 17544 | 19 "We're charged with wanting to get rid of the Japs for selfish reasons. We
do. It's a question of whether the white man lives on the Pacific Coast or
the brown men. They came into this valley to work, and they stayed to take
over... If all the Japs were removed tomorrow, we'd never miss them in two
weeks, because the white farmers can take over and produce everything the
Jap grows. And we do not want them back when the war ends, either."
"I am for the immediate removal of every Japanese on the W... 阅读全帖 |
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k*******3
发帖数: 918 | 20 The society has such a phenomenon: some people didn't want to do something,
but there are people around do, and even media stir up to their face, had to
bite the bullet and also to make a return, it is also a kind of "herd
effect". Well versed in the ways of Falun Gong, so they often wantonly fraud
, fraud, counterfeiting, false really tied to, let some people do not
distinguish in truth, unknown to the Falun Gong "sympathy" and "support"
back. Round of media on several occasions publicity Champ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 21 By Frank Burke
For those outside the state to fully appreciate the significance of what is
happening in Wisconsin, it is necessary to understand the local political
situation over the past decade.
To conservatives and to many moderates, the capture of the governorship, the
state senate and assembly, two House seats, and the Senate seat formerly
held by Russ Feingold, produced a feeling that can only be described as
liberation. The total Democratic control that accompanied the Doyle
administrati... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 22 By Stella Paul
Since we live in a craven age, let's salute our few heroes. Meet Jessica
Felber, a 21-year-old Lioness of Judah, who's suing the University of
California for failing to protect her civil rights.
Felber is a student activist at Berkeley who simply asserts her right to
stand on campus and hold a sign saying, "Israel Wants Peace," without
subsequently needing urgent medical attention. What Jew can count on that
right on a UC campus these days?
In March 2010, Felber was violently as... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 23 By Mary Beth White
In 1977, newly married and certain that my new spouse could do no wrong, I
willingly followed him into an adventure of Tennessee farming. I was a city
girl, but my new husband said we were going to raise sheep, cattle, and
horses, make tons of money, and live happily ever after. Because of the
politics of the day, the Farmers Home Administration had taken on several
newly developed loan projects and low-income families like us were given a
rosy scenario of cheap money for ch... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 24 by Jerome Hudson
Recent reports reveal the harsh reality of hope and change. According to
CBS News, while the national average is a depressing 9.1%, black
unemployment stands at a dismal 16.2%. Worse still, black teens 16 to 19
face 41% unemployment. CBS News, noting the historical disparity between
black unemployment and the national average, adds that these are “
Depression-era levels.”
The fact that most black uplift is held hostage by a confluence of cultural
cancers that are constantly o... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 25 Chu takes responsibility for a loan deal that put more taxpayer money at
risk in Solyndra
By Carol D. Leonnig and and Joe Stephens, Published: September 29
Energy Secretary Steven Chu acknowledged Thursday making the final decision
to allow a struggling solar company to continue receiving taxpayer money
after it had technically defaulted on a $535 million federal loan guaranteed
by his agency.
Chu spokesman Damien LaVera said in a statement that the secretary
approved the restructuring agr... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 26 By Robert Weissberg
How are we to understand the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement? Is it, as
many on the left insist, a commendable reaction to "obscene" inequalities in
wealth? Or is it, as according to the right, a union-financed, thinly
disguised Obama-supported ruse to stir up egalitarian envy? Both
interpretations are partially valid, but let me offer a different take, and
one that links OWS to countless similar political outcroppings that have
flourished since the 1960s.
My descriptor ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 By Melanie Hunter
May 4, 2012
(CNSNews.com) – Many college students are not earning enough to pay back
their student loans, because they choose majors that pay too little upon
graduation, and 15 percent of college grads are still paying back student
loans at age 50, Peter Morici, University of Maryland Economics Professor,
said Thursday.
College graduates owe on average $25,000 when they finish school, Morici
said, and in some cases, graduates can rack up debt close to six figures.
“You know, if... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 by Rick aka Mr. Brutally Honest
Fr. Lemieux is talking about societal breakdown:
It has been a week of anarchy in the world—mob violence, murder, chaos.
While the political way Tornado_warningahead in Egypt, Libya, Iran, Syria
is far from clear, and the proper response of US and Canadian governments is
far from clear, I hope we can all at least join together in fervent prayer
for peace in these and in all parts of the world. Lord have mercy on us.
We do see in this situation, however, th... 阅读全帖 |
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l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 29 How Stupid is Obama?
By J.R. Dunn
We've long been aware that the One is not quite the superior intellect he
was sold as. Obama, we were told, was the rare possessor of a mind with the
profundity of a Socrates, the breadth of a Goethe, and the penetration of a
Newton. An intellect unrivaled on the current American political scene,
and possibly without equal in this country's politics since the beginning.
Events have certainly demolished that little trope. Within weeks of the
inauguration, some... 阅读全帖 |
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S******4
发帖数: 2865 | 30 Google "echo chamber" and "herd mentality".
The only way to get a non-subjective view is to look at the polls. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 November 14, 2012 by Warner Todd Huston
Here is a heartwarming tale of your education tax dollars at work. At a
recent school event at a New Jersey public university, a tax paid professor
said that Joseph Stalin, the murderous head of the Soviet Union during the
WWII era, never committed any crimes against humanity. “I have yet to find
one crime that Stalin committed,” the professor yelled at students.
The comments were uttered by Grover Furr, a professor in Medieval English at
Montclair State ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******u
发帖数: 1181 | 32 房产一直是中国富人的心头所好，但近来中国房地产牛市已经疲态尽显，于是乎便有人
炒作起去美国炒房的话题，其中最给力的莫过于社科院在2013年《投资蓝皮书》中宣称
“投资中国楼市不如去美国买房”。美国楼市看起来确实诱人，最新的标普/Case-
Shiller房价指数年度增长率已经创下了近七年以来的最高纪录，真的是火得不得了。
然而，投资并不是从众（Herding）那么简单，特别是投资海外，不明就里的话，中国
豪客纵使多金也难免泥牛入海。
根据华尔街日报报道，(如下图所示)最近几个月加利福尼亚购买后不足半年便抛售的房
屋数量(Home Flipping)已经达到了次贷危机前的最高水平，今年直到4月份Home
Flipping的数量是6000个，占全州房屋出售量超过5%。这种现象正在蔓延全美。与危机
前不同的是，今天Home Flipping的交易者绝大部分用现金，因为银行不再给那些无法
用大量现金做首付的客户提供贷款。这些投资者往往囤积多处房屋沽售，且交易频繁，
容易把房价炒高，问题是美国楼市复苏的持续性无法靠投机支撑，而需购房自住的零售
房主大量进场。要认清美国楼市表面繁荣的本来面目，就必... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 33 【 以下文字转载自 WaterWorld 讨论区 】
发信人: fighter644 (武士), 信区: WaterWorld
标 题: 原来JK脱口秀是由职业writer团队写出脚本的, Co-head Writer为一白女
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Oct 27 15:47:15 2013, 美东)
做了一下研究，发现原来所有的所谓脱口秀都是由职业的Writer们写出脚本script，再
由host来演出的。Jimmy Kimmel脱口秀同样有一个职业写手团队，其Co-head Writer为
一白女，看照片和介绍。
想起来多可笑，现在我们中国人还能够说这不过是一个孩子的童言无忌，一个笑话吗。
这是一个刻意的试探，是我们所有的中国人面临的一个严重的考验。
What It's Like to Write For a Late Night Talk Show
http://splitsider.com/2013/10/what-its-like-to-write-for-a-late
Comedy is an industry. For every performer ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 34 Poll: At Least 11% of Employer-Based Insurance Plans 'Discontinued'
The mainstream media is currently either ignoring ObamaCare's problems or
writing happy talk pieces about how it has turned the corner. But out in the
real world, an Associated Press-GfK ObamaCare poll reveals that the
president's signature piece of legislation is now hurting the lives of a
much larger pool of Americans than the media is letting on. A full 69% of
those who have private or employer-based insurance will pay more n... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 Peter Lucas: Obama's 'Mariel boatlift'
By Peter Lucas
Updated: 07/08/2014 08:26:05 AM EDT1 Comment
President Barack Obama said he will send some of the 50,000 children who
illegally crossed the border back to their homes in Central America; the
problem is nobody believes him.
The president has gone rogue.
Certainly John Boehner doesn't believe the president, and that is why the
Republican-controlled House is blocking action on Obama's immigration-reform
bill, which they call amnesty. If Obama ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****o
发帖数: 356 | 36 Mitt Romney announced Friday he will not run for president in 2016, after
briefly flirting with a third White House run -- a decision that only
slightly narrows the crowded field of potential Republican candidates.
"After putting considerable thought into making another run for president, I
've decided it's best to give other leaders in the party the opportunity to
become our next nominee," Romney told donors on a conference call Friday
morning.
The announcement comes after the 2012 GOP nominee,... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 37 Iran deal criticized by noted conservative… Chuck Schumer?
posted at 8:01 am on April 7, 2015 by Jazz Shaw
If you read nothing more than the title of this Politico piece you might
think that Senate Democrat majority leader in waiting Chuck Schumer was
spitting in the President’s corn flakes. The tone being taken by several
morning show talking heads is similar, suggesting that Chuck has suddenly
jumped ship and is siding with Republicans in rejecting Obama’s “framework
” with Iran.
Chuck Sch... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 The Bundy Family and Armed Resistance to ‘Government Land Grabs’: Know the
Facts
by Brandon Darby and Logan Churchwell3 Jan 20166,504
Ammon Bundy, son of infamous Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, is leading an
armed effort to occupy a headquarters building located in a federal wildlife
preserve near Burns, Oregon, as a reaction to a local criminal case between
ranchers and public land officials beginning in 2001.
What started as a community protest–over the extended sentencing of father
and son ranc... 阅读全帖 |
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l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 39 arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
from 538
I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
skeptical.
First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
’t accus... 阅读全帖 |
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h*h
发帖数: 27852 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: hsh (nidaye), 信区: Military
标 题: Why Can't Islam be Reformed? By Ali Sina
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jun 15 17:39:38 2016, 美东)
Why Can't Islam be Reformed?
By Ali Sina
Dear Mr. Sina,
I am a Muslim woman living in the USA I read some of your articles and
totally agree with you on many points.
I am still a Muslim but at the same time I hold rather peculiar positions on
many points.
There are five pillars of Islam and six pillars of faith that cannot be
modified. That... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 41 October 11, 2016
The Political ‘Education Divide’ and Me
By Christopher Chantrill
All of a sudden the experts are bellowing that the educated are voting for
Clinton and the uneducated are voting for Trump. Here’s Tim Alberta in
National Review, and here is David Runciman in The Guardian to tell you all
about it. Call it the “education divide.”
But where does that leave me? You see, I think of myself as educated, but I
am going to vote for Trump. So what’s my problem?
Of course, my terminal degre... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 42 【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
发信人: patrickcp (梨叔), 信区: Joke
标 题: 笑死我了。。 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Oct 22 08:23:16 2008), 站内
发信人: liusan (不三不四), 信区: Boston
标 题: 笑死我了。。 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 21 11:57:44 2008)
发信人: buka (阿穆), 信区: Seattle
标 题: 笑死我了。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 20 14:03:07 2008)
21 Economic Models explained with Cows:
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State ta... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 1700 | 43 meaning originally an elephant which had been expelled from the herd. |
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l****g
发帖数: 5080 | 45 看似落俗套，但有科学原理在里面，说得是swarm theory。基本上就是大家随机选择，
然后选出最佳方案。不过爱贬低别人的就会管这个叫herd mentality. 同一事情的两种
叫法。 |
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N*********o
发帖数: 1167 | 46 huat is derux? or durex? never herd of it |
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v*******y
发帖数: 5530 | 47 我觉得这个很难讲啊
招人这个东西都是一窝蜂的
经常是有人拿了一个offer
然后十几个offer一起来了
如果只申请一个学校，就没有这种herding effect了 |
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a*****n
发帖数: 653 | 48 有意思，我们行业的mailing list上不久前有人问了这个问题。下面转贴一下。里面关
于赶牛的那句，和我第一次找工作去会议面试时候的感觉很像。一群西装革履的博士生
，排着队像出栏的牲畜那样，一个个接受买主的检阅。我有过一次在宾馆房间的面试。
可能是他们刻意的安排，来的是一男一女两个教授。我自己感觉是比在菜市场(
placement area)面试气氛要轻松不少。不过完全可以理解女生对这样面试会有顾虑，
特别是来的只有男教授的情况。
X University is hiring this year (look for an official announcement as soon
as all the paperwork is complete) and we are debating whether or not to get
a hotel room to do our interviewing in. While the placement area is a
wonderful resource, it is not exactly a comfortable, quit... 阅读全帖 |
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A*******0
发帖数: 1705 | 49 不懂就别瞎说！奶牛那是产犊以后才有奶的，不产犊你喂再多激素也没奶！
目前奶牛场都是让奶牛产300天奶，剩下60天干奶准备产犊的，而且产犊后一段时间初
乳是给小牛喝的，分泌到初乳里的蛋白激素等怕对人类有影响也是严格不能进入人类消
费的奶里的。
此前美国是有很多奶牛场给奶牛喂奶牛生长激素提高产奶量（请注意是奶牛生长激素）
，尽管那种激素有很多研究证明对人体无害，但目前也有奶牛场不再给奶牛日粮添加这
种激素，这样的牛场给专门的牛奶加工公司提供奶源，生产出来的牛奶包装上也会表明
no artificial hormone。
而且喝牛奶也不只是为了补钙啊，本身就好喝，而且是很多食物加工的一个成分，比如
蛋糕，饼干等。里面还有蛋白质，脂肪酸等。如果纯为了补钙，还真不如就吃
supplement呢。
还有抗生素，严格讲奶牛得了各种疾病，如乳房炎（或者其他蹄病）时候的奶是不能进
入人类消费市场的，而且这样的牛通常都会被隔离出来饲养，挤奶时候也是单独的挤奶
器以防传染给其他牛。如果医治一段时间奶牛还不好，产奶量大幅度降低不值得继续饲
养就会被从herd里面剔除屠宰的。
很多人说来了美国喝牛奶有激素起痘痘... 阅读全帖 |
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h***2
发帖数: 2351 | 50 How Safe Is Our Beef Supply? continued...
Studies have revealed that the agent responsible for mad cow infections is
not found in beef muscle or in milk. The disease is spread by proteins
called prions, which are found in the central nervous system tissue -- such
as the brain and spinal cord -- of cattle. Prions cannot be destroyed by
cooking.
Only one cow infected with the disease has been found in the U.S. According
to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, the central nervous system
mater... 阅读全帖 |
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