c***n
发帖数: 2232 | 1 曾預言中共政權將在2011年垮台的美籍華裔作家章家敦，昨天在「外交政策」雜誌發表
文章，承認預測錯誤，但他仍認為，共產黨會在2012年垮台。
章家敦（Gordon Chang）在2001年出版「中國即將崩潰」（The Coming Collapse of
China）一書，預言中共政權將於10年內垮台。10年過去，他的預言顯然未實現。
2011年結束前夕，章家敦昨天在美國外交政策（Foreign Policy）雜誌再度發表「2012
年版中國即將崩潰」文章解釋，預言未實現，是因中共保護國內市場，拒絕國外競爭所
致。
章家敦說，當年預測中共10年內垮台，是根據中國將加入世界貿易組織（WTO）開放市
場所做的推論。中共未垮，和北京當局規避世貿法規，拒絕開放市場，國際社會對大陸
忍氣吞聲所致。
章家敦從經濟角度分析，北京當局保護國內市場，拒絕競爭者，加速出口政策，在1990
年代，保持兩位數高速經濟成長，但好日子已經過去。
雖然世界銀行首席經濟學家林毅夫預言，未來20年中國大陸經濟將一路保8，國際貨幣
基金（IMF）也預測2016年中國大陸經濟規模將超越美國。但章家敦說，不要相信這些
推論。
章家敦分析，中國大陸過去30年的成長首先歸功於鄧小平的改革開放政策，當年幸運遇
上冷戰結束，中國大陸得以規避政治阻撓進入全球貿易體系，另外大量勞動人口也功不
可沒。
不過，章家敦說，這些正面的時代背景都將改變。共產黨與中國國家主席胡錦濤改變經
濟政策，2008年起，再將企業國有化，壓縮外資空間；為扶植本土製造業，拒絕外資併
購與增加限制。中國國企成為民族榮耀的象徵，胡錦濤揚棄令中國成功的經濟典範。
章家敦接著指出，全球經濟榮景在2008年告終，各國自顧不暇，並急著將中國納入國際
體系，因此容忍中國的外貿政策。現在各國急於向外推銷產品，中國靠外銷推動成長的
策略難再奏效，中國將是歐債危機最大的受害者。
再者，中國勞動人口在2014年開始遞減，勞工問題已陸續浮現。工資上揚終究將使中國
失去競爭力，影響經濟成長。
另外，北京當局從2008年起大量注資經濟體系，引發資產泡沫化與通貨膨脹，從9月開
始，用電量、工業訂單、外銷成長、汽車銷售、房產價格等指標都出現警示，外資從10
月開始撤出中國大陸，種種問題都將使中國大陸經濟出現日本式的停滯甚至崩潰。
章家敦指出，去年中國出現28萬次各種「意外」，近期出現的示威與動亂，暴力成分增
加，中共官方將無力協調社會不安。短期而言，官方可以鎮壓動亂，但長期來說，民眾
認為一黨專政不適用於中國，官方將無法控制現代社會的思潮。 | p*********g
发帖数: 9527 | | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 3 土共的好同志
2012
【在 c***n 的大作中提到】
: 曾預言中共政權將在2011年垮台的美籍華裔作家章家敦，昨天在「外交政策」雜誌發表
: 文章，承認預測錯誤，但他仍認為，共產黨會在2012年垮台。
: 章家敦（Gordon Chang）在2001年出版「中國即將崩潰」（The Coming Collapse of
: China）一書，預言中共政權將於10年內垮台。10年過去，他的預言顯然未實現。
: 2011年結束前夕，章家敦昨天在美國外交政策（Foreign Policy）雜誌再度發表「2012
: 年版中國即將崩潰」文章解釋，預言未實現，是因中共保護國內市場，拒絕國外競爭所
: 致。
: 章家敦說，當年預測中共10年內垮台，是根據中國將加入世界貿易組織（WTO）開放市
: 場所做的推論。中共未垮，和北京當局規避世貿法規，拒絕開放市場，國際社會對大陸
: 忍氣吞聲所致。
| h*******u
发帖数: 15326 | | d*s
发帖数: 3016 | 5 章家敦的逻辑看不懂
前半部说，中国没有崩溃是因为保护国内市场；
后半部说，中国要崩溃是因为保护国内市场。 | L**r
发帖数: 411 | 6 此人是我总参三炮战略忽悠局的特聘情报员， 待遇比平可夫还高一级
成功忽悠美帝近十年， 功劳很大
【在 d*s 的大作中提到】
: 章家敦的逻辑看不懂
: 前半部说，中国没有崩溃是因为保护国内市场；
: 后半部说，中国要崩溃是因为保护国内市场。
| d*s
发帖数: 3016 | 7 章家敦的逻辑看不懂
前半部说，中国没有崩溃是因为保护国内市场；
后半部说，中国要崩溃是因为保护国内市场。 | w*p
发帖数: 16484 | 8 靠，居然还有脸出来搞预测
2012
【在 c***n 的大作中提到】
: 曾預言中共政權將在2011年垮台的美籍華裔作家章家敦，昨天在「外交政策」雜誌發表
: 文章，承認預測錯誤，但他仍認為，共產黨會在2012年垮台。
: 章家敦（Gordon Chang）在2001年出版「中國即將崩潰」（The Coming Collapse of
: China）一書，預言中共政權將於10年內垮台。10年過去，他的預言顯然未實現。
: 2011年結束前夕，章家敦昨天在美國外交政策（Foreign Policy）雜誌再度發表「2012
: 年版中國即將崩潰」文章解釋，預言未實現，是因中共保護國內市場，拒絕國外競爭所
: 致。
: 章家敦說，當年預測中共10年內垮台，是根據中國將加入世界貿易組織（WTO）開放市
: 場所做的推論。中共未垮，和北京當局規避世貿法規，拒絕開放市場，國際社會對大陸
: 忍氣吞聲所致。
| r********n
发帖数: 7441 | 9 三流学者搞不清楚愿望和真实世界
2012
【在 c***n 的大作中提到】
: 曾預言中共政權將在2011年垮台的美籍華裔作家章家敦，昨天在「外交政策」雜誌發表
: 文章，承認預測錯誤，但他仍認為，共產黨會在2012年垮台。
: 章家敦（Gordon Chang）在2001年出版「中國即將崩潰」（The Coming Collapse of
: China）一書，預言中共政權將於10年內垮台。10年過去，他的預言顯然未實現。
: 2011年結束前夕，章家敦昨天在美國外交政策（Foreign Policy）雜誌再度發表「2012
: 年版中國即將崩潰」文章解釋，預言未實現，是因中共保護國內市場，拒絕國外競爭所
: 致。
: 章家敦說，當年預測中共10年內垮台，是根據中國將加入世界貿易組織（WTO）開放市
: 場所做的推論。中共未垮，和北京當局規避世貿法規，拒絕開放市場，國際社會對大陸
: 忍氣吞聲所致。
| m**********n
发帖数: 27535 | 10 逻辑就是中共怎么做都会崩溃
家敦真是我党的好同志
【在 d*s 的大作中提到】
: 章家敦的逻辑看不懂
: 前半部说，中国没有崩溃是因为保护国内市场；
: 后半部说，中国要崩溃是因为保护国内市场。
| | | g*****1
发帖数: 666 | 11 常家蹲还是重复他的念咒一般的老生常谈，根本不值一提。
可读是读者的评论。
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/29/the_coming_col
MESS_MEDIA
9:18 PM ET
December 29, 2011
Yeah, I was wrong when I
Yeah, I was wrong when I predicted that the world would end on May 21, 2011.
It should end on October 21.
-Harold Camping
REPLY
JOESMITHII
2:44 AM ET
December 30, 2011
I guess, sooner or later,
I guess, sooner or later, Gordon will get used to admitting wrong
predictions. Fortunately, 2012 is around the corner, we don't need to wait
for 10 more years.
REPLY
APPLESAUCE
10:08 PM ET
December 29, 2011
I'll take your bet
with all due respect mr. chang, you have argued that china has been on the
brink for more than a decade now just what is your definition of being on
the brink? close to collapse? decades from collapse? centuries from collapse
? because you clearly assume that the chinese government has not changed its
ways.
quote "Not long ago, everything was going well for the mandarins in Beijing.
Now, nothing is. So, yes, my prediction was wrong. Instead of 2011, the
mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it. " unquote
i would very much like to take you up on this bet, i am willing put-up
everything i own, as i believe this is a far safer investment than any
stocks or government bonds.
REPLY
APPLESAUCE
10:11 PM ET
December 29, 2011
ps
ps i was reminded of Harold Camping while reading this
REPLY
MICHELLE SUMMERS
3:09 PM ET
December 30, 2011
Collapse, what collapse?
Sorry Gordon but I agree with Applesauce and just don't see it happening...
yet. It's unlikely that something equivalent to the Arab Spring would happen
in China right now. For that, there needs to be significant dissent in the
masses and I'm not sure that's really there right now. China is booming.
I agree with Mark Newham in one of the later comments to a point - the media
has to show signs of change first. At the very least, there needs to be a
means for the masses to communicate with each other and organize without
fear. The foreign community panders to China - from trade, 'concessions' on
human rights issues and even foreign policy decisions (e.g. the refusal of a
Dalai Lama visa by South Africa earlier this year). China has power and the
foreign community is not giving any signs that it intends to increase
pressure against it.
So if both the citizens and foreign nations are apparently useless in
effecting any sort of change, how can one conclude that such change is
inevitable... and that within the next year? Sorry, but that just doesn't
make any logical sense.
REPLY
XTIANGODLOKI
10:18 PM ET
December 29, 2011
What's the point of betting if there are no consequences?
"So, yes, my prediction was wrong. Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist
Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it. "
The thing is that China naysayers have been consistently wrong over the
years. Yet most of them are still being paraded in the Western media as "
China experts" as long as they say things which most people want to hear.
China definitely has its share of problems and Chang pointed out some of
them correctly. However nowhere did Chang provide any evidence as to why
would China collapse next year as opposed to 2016, or 2020. The fact of the
matter is that there are very few world leaders who actually want China to
collapse, because in addition to economic turmoil there would be political
uncertainty. In such an environment China won't collapse.
REPLY
PUBLICUS
5:25 AM ET
December 30, 2011
The world did fine during China chaos, circa 1830-2011
China has been the poster les enfants terribles of chaos from the first
third of the 19th century to the present yet the world has done just fine,
thanks. Global civilization survived two huge industrial world wars and
several severe economic downturns, to include the Great Depression, while
China was in complete chaos and nothing but chaos. Who today will miss the
RMB, the CCP-PRC State-Corporate-Military Complex, the dictators and censors
of the CCP - the list goes on?
Our focus over the next decade concerns the Eurozone and the EU itself, the
nuclear obsessions of the ayatollas in Iran and the ratification of
democracy in Russia. The demise of the PRC as a wholly owned subsidiary of
the CCP is not high on the list of concerns on Wall Street, at the Pentagon,
or to the WTO, IMF, World Bank, UN et al.
Gordon Chang is fundamentally right about the PRC. Gordo simply has a blind
spot that causes him to believe he can divine the exact year of the CCP's
doom and demise. We recognize the blind spot in this regard is a minor
distraction.
I recently returned from three years in the People's Republic where (
circumventing censors via the Google Unblock and Uncensor system) I read Mr.
Chang's Forbes magazine column that focuses exclusively on the CCP-PRC, so
I would add to this discourse some from his Dec 25th piece which I believe
is even more cogent than his accurate fundamentals and insights above.
Mr. Chang wrote:
"Those in control of the Chinese economy view the state sector as their
primary source of power and patronage and perceive needed reforms as '
political suicide.' After all, a literal translation of the name of the
Communist Party is 'the Party of Public Assets,' so that organization must
protect state enterprises—the country’s 'public assets'—to maintain
political legitimacy.
"Because China will not be able to ramp up exports or eliminate the 'triple
imbalances,' it is sure to be snared in what economists call 'the middle-
income trap,' where growth stalls before a moderately well-off population
becomes rich. China has already reaped all the easy growth that comes with
starting from a low base, and now it needs to, among other things, encourage
consumption, allow the renminbi to float, flatten the social structure,
promote democratization, remove restrictions on labor, adopt the rule of law
, and strengthen the social safety net. The Party will not make substantial
progress toward any of these goals—with the possible exception of the last
one—until it adopts fundamentally different political and economic models.
"In the meantime......triple imbalances are getting larger because Party
leaders have ruled out the structural changes necessary to lay the
foundation for the next multi-decade round of growth. So, despite what the
World Bank [chief] economist [Justin Lin] hopes, China will not become the
next Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan. It’s much more likely to resemble the
trapped Venezuela and Argentina—not to mention the former Soviet Union."
To which I say good riddance. Chinese culture is the culture of the
dictatorship of emperors and dynasties of emperors, and now the dictatorship
of the CCP. The Chinese mind is an ancient, i.e., simple mind, to the point
that the Chinese language still hasn't any alphabet.
XTIANGODLOKI you are correct to assert that Mr. Chang does "not provide any
evidence as to why would China collapse next year as opposed to 2016 or 2020
." He doesn't need to. US and other global corporate investors are preparing
for major reversals to the economics and finances of the PRC in the target
year 2016. That is because we are already seeing the manifestations of
collapse in China and continuation of a thousands year old Chinese tradition
- chaos, complete chaos and nothing but chaos. History shows that that's no
skin off our backs.
REPLY
B1717414
9:21 PM ET
December 30, 2011
While still in Berlin, Kennan
While still in Berlin, Kennan had expressed grave reservations to his fellow
diplomat, Loy Henderson, about America's alliance with Russia. He thought
that welcoming the Soviet Union as a defender of democracy could only
identify the US "with the Russian destruction of the YouTube Converter for
Mac
YouTube To MP4 ConverterBaltic states, with the attack against Finnish
independence, with the partitioning of Poland . . . and with the domestic
policy of a regime which is widely feared and detested throughout this part
of the world".
REPLY
GODFREE
12:17 AM ET
December 31, 2011
State-owned Enterprises
Neoliberal ideology demands that State and Business be not only separate and
independent, but that Business be the dominant partner. Business--
especially in America--is notoriously short term in its thinking. We are all
suffering the consequences of this fundamentalist paradigm and our
suffering is intensifying.
The pragmatic Chinese currently feel that if the State is run by honest,
competent people then it is best for it to be the dominant partner.
Singapore, incidentally, has a similar view.
This arrangement has the following advantages:
1. A more cohesive society and therefore..
2. A more flexible society, which leads to
3. A more just and equitable society, which willingly makes room for..
4. A longer planning horizon, which results in
5. An 85% trustworthiness rating from the Chinese electorate (Edelman, et
al.) and
6. An 86% approval of Government policies (Pew, UofM, et al.)
When any of our Western governments have ratings that approach these levels
then they should feel free to offer advice to the Chinese. Until that happy
day, we should not miss a single opportunity to shut up.
REPLY
BIG BOY
10:35 PM ET
December 29, 2011
Is Gordon describing China or the US?
The US currently has mass protests in the "Occupy" movements around the
country. It started as a Occupy Wall Street and eventually morphed into a
country wide response.
The US currently has a strongly divided government as can be seen in the
gridlock that is occurring in Congress and pretty much everywhere else on
the political seen with Republicans and Democrats at each others throats.
Also, the Soviet Union collapsed because of many factors. Demographically,
at the height of the Soviet Union only 45% of the population were ethnically
Russian, and this meant the keeping the power of the majority was a
challenge. By 2045, it is predicted that the white population will be a
minority in the US, with the other "minorities" becoming the "majority". The
Soviet Union overspent on it military, with a massive portion of the
economy dependent on the military-industrial complex to feed it. The US by
comparison is militarily overstretched, with huge obligations in every
portion of the world. Third, the Soviet Union collapsed mainly because of
Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev let the Soviet Union collapse without
mobilizing any forces, he watched as the empire collapse on its own. Had
another leader that had the character of say Stalin or today's Putin been at
the helm, the Soviet Union would probably still be alive today. Now the US
does not have this same problem.
Now Gordon also mentioned exports. Well the US has an export deficit with
the whole world and an enormous budget deficit also. Gordon mentioned that
China lived through a great era but the same is true of the US post-WWII as
it lived through one of the greatest boom eras (i.e. 1950-1970 hence the
term "Baby Boomers"), it also lived through one of the greatest eras in
borrowing (post 1987 stock market crash) when Allen Greenspan kept the
interest rates too low for way too long. We also have the current post 2008
subprime loan crash, with the Federal Reserve keeping real interests
negative.
Now is the US going to collapse? I don't think so.
REPLY
CONCONS1224
12:58 AM ET
December 30, 2011
One Big Difference
True, but the one crucial difference between the two countries is that China
has a highly repressive government. The US doesn't. That would be the
primary factor in a Chinese collapse: popular discontent. The US has
discontent also, true, because of the economic crisis, but the government
certainly doesn't treat it's own people the way China does. With a slowdown
in the economy and the example of the Arab Spring, is it not possible this
discontent could swell to much greater proportions in the coming year and
force changes in the government or lead to the fall of the Communist Party?
The collapse of the Communist Party, not necessarily the Chinese economy, is
certainly possible.
REPLY
PUBLICUS
6:02 AM ET
December 30, 2011
People and sheeple
The US body politic is comprised of vibrant people as opposed to the
population of the People's Republic which, accurately stated, consists of
carefully cloned silent and herded sheeple. The US and the PRC are apples
and oranges. Trying to compare the two is folly. Stark contrast is the
reality.
During my recent three years in southernmost China, in Guangdong province,
which is the 3rd most prosperous area after Beijing and Shanghai, college
and university age learners speak of having an independent republic based on
- horrors or horrors to Beijing - the Taiwan model. Taiwan is a stone's
throw off the coast of Guangdong province. Each has made its own way in
Chinese history before. Guangdong's two major cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou
are essentially the old Canton where foreigners traded, lived and worked
throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, respectively. The two urban centers
continue to host many foreigners in the current global economy and Guangdong
has many new and shinny universities which build on the traditions of the
respected Sun Yat Sen University in Shenzhen.
These same visionary Chinese of Guangdong, however, well know the long
history of absolute rulers in China. The cold fact is the CCP will slaughter
1 000 000 or 10 000 000 - or more - in order to retain power, money,
control. The CCP in Beijing consists of the same gang that supports the DPRK
. Guangzhou City is the site of a huge army garrison and one of the navy's
fleets fans throughout the Pearl River Basin that nourishes Shenzhen and
Guangzhou especially. Several Chinese friends asked me while I was there
whether, when push comes to shove in the PRC, I could sponsor them as
political refugees in the United States because the CCP will hunt down and
kill every radical who dares to rise up against it.
The year 2012 is definitely too soon. But 2016 give or take a year or two
seems to have a certain ring to it.
REPLY
POLITICZ
3:54 PM ET
December 30, 2011
Laughable
"The US body politic is comprised of vibrant people as opposed to the
population of the People's Republic which, accurately stated, consists of
carefully cloned silent and herded sheeple"
Vibrant wouldn't be the word I would choose to describe the Republican
candidates that we've all seen recently, but I guess it fits somewhat. But
one does have to wonder how much of a drone or "sheeple" you'd have to be to
actually support them.
Sure it's apples and oranges: on the one hand the Chinese are silent; on the
other the Americans are just plain ignorant and blind to their plight.
REPLY
LIBERTINE
5:34 PM ET
December 30, 2011
@POLITICZ
Another silent admirer of DRONE-BAMA?
Are Chinese people really silent or perhaps the CCP's tops effectively
muzzle them? I am deeply puzzled where all those fellow-travelers come from
these days. Oh I am sorry, today you are the standard-bearers of
objectiveness. And objectively speaking the Chinese are not compatible with
democracy. Right? Is that what you truly think? The history will prove you
wrong. Maybe not in 2012, but for sure in the near future.
PS. Great article Mr. Chang!
REPLY
B1717414
8:59 PM ET
December 30, 2011
there needs to be a means for
there needs to be a means for the masses to communicate with each other and
organize without fear. The foreign community panders to China - from trade,
'concessions' on human YouTube Converter for Mac
YouTube To MP4 Converterrights issues and even foreign policy decisions (e.
g. the refusal of a Dalai Lama visa by South Africa earlier this year).
China has power and the foreign community is not giving any signs that it
intends to increase pressure against it.
REPLY
REACH-SONG
11:54 PM ET
December 29, 2011
hope it will be true
communist party China is evil country, where common people have been torn
since 1949.every normal chinese hope Coummunist party China can collapse as
soon as possible
REPLY
POLITICZ
3:58 PM ET
December 30, 2011
An interesting finding
An interesting finding indicates Fox viewers are less knowledgeable about
world events than those who don't watch news at all. You should consider
switching to something with more facts.
REPLY
PANYEE
12:47 AM ET
December 30, 2011
This article is SHIT
I cannot believe that the prestigous Foreign Policy could manage to publish
this article on its front page. It's ridiculous. I've been to some western
European countries and believe that China is not so bad. With another two
decades, China will be quite prosperous, but even today, I don't think China
is an authoritarian country. Those who say so must be manipulated by some
ill-intentioned Western capitalist foundations that cannot wait to take
advantage of China's collapse. I like Western air quality (although it used
to be worse than China's at some point in history), but I don't like its
food and service. Maybe my impression on the West is superficial, but I hope
that China can do the same to them as revenge: turn Europe and America into
communist states!
REPLY
MJKT
3:07 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Chinese nationalism at its finest?
There's a huge difference between an authoritarian government collapsing and
China collapsing. I don't think anyone wishes China would collapse. I think
many people wish China could have a free, democratic government. We've seen
it can work in Taiwan; I only hope it can one day work in Mainland China.
But the thing I worry about even more than the current authoritarian
government is the sometimes extremely nationalistic nature of Chinese
citizens. Nationalism is probably the most dangerous thing to the continued
existence of our species, and the Chinese can be masters at it.
REPLY
THE SWEDE
3:21 AM ET
December 30, 2011
.....
First of all, you wrote: "I don't think China is an authoritarian country".
I belive that you can shorten this sentence by removing "China is
authoritarian country" and still prove your point.
Second, are you a member of the Communist Party? If so, then i belive in Mr.
Changs prediction.
Third, this article is not shit, you are:)
REPLY
FREETRADER
9:55 PM ET
December 30, 2011
LOL
Wow. Whatever the merits of Mr. Chang's analysis (and most of it is pretty
spot-on) the entertainment value of reading a card-carrying member China's
CP write without irony that "China is not an authoritarian state" is
priceless.
Keep up the good work, Panyee.
REPLY
MARCEL WIEDENBRUGGE
1:13 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Will the communist party collapse in 2012?
I don't think China nor the CPC will collapse in 2012, but obviously China
is not immune to what is happening in the rest of the world as some domestic
developments (rising labor costs, real estate bubble, NPL's, etc.). However
, the inward focus of China is something that may cause companies to more
look for opportunities outside China as well.
REPLY
B1717414
9:22 PM ET
December 30, 2011
Each has made its own way in
Each has made its own way in Chinese history before. Guangdong's two major
cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are essentially the old Canton where
foreigners traded, lived and worked throughout the 19th and 20th centuries,
respectively. The two urban centers YouTube Converter for Mac
YouTube To MP4 Convertercontinue to host many foreigners in the current
global economy and Guangdong has many new and shinny universities which
build on the traditions of the respected Sun Yat Sen University in Shenzhen.
REPLY
ZERGE
3:11 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Not collapse, but peter out
I personally don't think China will collapse, but I do believe its
extraordinary economic growth will peter out way before it becomes the
superpower everybody expects it to be.
I remember back in the 80s when Japan was going to conquer the world. Never
happened, they just ran out of steam.
And yes, the US has plenty of problems, but it's one helluva big steam
engine.
REPLY
YOSHIMICHI MORIYAMA
7:24 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Japan was not going to conquer the world
There were many Japanese who believed the mass media story of " the 21st
century would be Japan's century." But there were many Japanese who did not
believe it all, which was little reported; these people knew Japan was
confronted with a lot of problems, domestic and foreign. Unnan City, Japan
REPLY
DELTA22
3:18 AM ET
December 30, 2011
m
There's nothing for us to do anyway but wait and see what happens.
REPLY
JANE BLUE
3:39 AM ET
December 30, 2011
We'll see...
If Mr. Chang is right, we'll know soon enough. If he's wrong, chalk it up to
another failed forecast of the future. Anyone can make predictions.
Accuracy is another matter. Here are my predictions for 2012: 1) a new
planet will be discovered that excites all of science as it will be
perfectly centered in "the habitable zone" of its sun and will be the right
size to support life; 2) a ring of hackers will be tracked down and some of
the names shock the world; the "occupy" movement will fizzle out with
nothing much accomplished; 3) there will be a growing backlash against
celebrities who espouse political views; 4) rather than an elective course,
some colleges will make it a requirement for students to learn html; 5)
after a record warm winter in the northern US, we'll see a surprisingly cool
summer. How about that!
REPLY
MARK NEWHAM
4:55 AM ET
December 30, 2011
China Collapse Unlikely
As one who has voyaged to the heart of China's propaganda machine in a
futile search for fundamental change in the PRC I could not agree less with
Mr Chang's prediction.
If China was changing, so would be its media. It isn't. Two years at the
state-run Xinhua news agency followed by a period with the Beijing Olympics
News Service was enough to convince me that, if anything, the state's
control over the media is becoming more, not less, stringent and repressive.
And that without a relaxation of this control, the average Chinese will
never really be aware of any 'revolt' anywhere within the country.
Especially with the state clamping down on the internet.
So no, Mr Chang, you are wrong and I, for one, won't be putting my shirt on
any significant change in 2012. Or, for that matter, anytime in the
foreseeable future. The state will always ensure just enough crumbs fall
from its table to keep the average Zhao on its side.
I base my assessment on my own experience of living cheek by jowl with the '
system' which I've summed up in my book 'Limp Pigs and the Five-Ring Circus'
. Mr Chang could do worse than take a look at it (see summary and sample
chapter on my website www.marknewham.com).
REPLY
FORLORNEHOPE
7:26 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Chinese bureaucracy
For most of the last two thousand years China was ruled by a, theoretically,
impartial bureaucracy. Entry was by performance in an examination and
promotion, in principle, was by merit. Wealth could buy you education and
coaching but on the day of the test, you were on you're own. The legitimacy
of the mandarins, quite apart from the "mandate of heaven" was based on the
fact that they had demonstrated the level of intellect required to govern.
For most of that period China was the social, economic and technological
leader of the world. Looking at the system that gave us George W Bush,
Lehman Brothers and the Iraq war, perhaps the Chinese might think twice
about the merits of democracy in providing what the enlightenment called "
good government".
REPLY
PUBLICUS
8:52 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Don't need to
The Chinese don't need to think twice about democracy because they never
would think to have it in the first place. The Chinese are absolutely
against democracy, which they view with absolute contempt and, to put it
mildly, distain. The mainland Chinese never have known democracy, Sun Yat
Sen not withstanding, and are entirely dismissive of democracy. The 2010
Nobel Peace Laureate Dr. Lui Xiaobo is in prison for 11 years because he
advocates China's gradual and evolutionary transition to democracy - the PRC
thus is the only government of the world currently to imprison a Nobel
Peace Laureate (even Burma gave up on that in respect to Aung San Suu Kyi).
The "Mandate of Heaven" was always a farce which forced the Chinese
peasantry, i.e., the rest of the population, to mass in the thousands with
pitchforks to violently remove their leaders. That's in fact the Mandate of
Hell as a way of citizens petitioning the government for redress of lawful
grievances and to express themselves in society, the economy, the country's
governance. The CCP anyway has build the largest and most repressive state "
security" apparatus in history to preserve its censoring and punishing self
in power, money and control.
The CCP is threatened most by Chinese democracy on Taiwan, in Hong Kong and
in Singapore, not to mention all those Chinese-Americans who Beijing
conveniently calls "overseas Chinese" as if they were exclusively Chinese
always, anywhere, forever. The Chinese have learned quickly that Pres Obama'
s ambassador to Beijing, the Chinese-American Gary Locke, the first Asian
elected governor of a state (Washington) is indeed American, not Chinese.
That's a hard concept and lesson for the inbred, inborn and ingrown Chinese
to take.
REPLY
YOSHIMICHI MORIYAMA
7:47 AM ET
December 30, 2011
CCP is a dynasty
If we compare CCP to one dynasty of many which rose and fell in China, we
will be able to understand China better.
We cannot say CCP will fall in 2012 or 2013. We cannot say it will muddle
through and hold on for a few more decades, either. The Chinese regime which
would follow its collapse would not be a democratic system. China lacks in
its history and society cultural and political factors which go into the
making of democracy or at least a Western-style democracy. A democratic
China could not be predicted to be bound to be pro-Western or pro-U.S.A. as
a democratic Egypt or Iran could not be pro-Western or pro-U.S.A. Unnan City
, Japan
REPLY
GENEVIEVETOYD
7:54 AM ET
December 30, 2011
China Collapses in 2012?
I hope that Mesothelioma Lawsuits cases in China also collapse in 2012.
REPLY
TOMHE
9:04 AM ET
December 30, 2011
Not a collaps
The condtions that the author pointed out are rather relevant to China's
reality. But they are not causing a collaps, instead of a concern. The
reason is simple, the conditions are moving rather slowly, not able to cause
a sudden change; everybody in China is talking about it anyway. The model
that the author used to predict the collapse of China is not workable. To
predict somehting, you need a model; but a model should consists of a number
of verifiable principles. The author does not have any verifiable
principles. And he will not able to get it, because all collapses are
different. China will collapse when nobody care about it.
REPLY
ROBESPIERRE
9:52 AM ET
December 30, 2011
tapping my wrist
I had a huge trollface on as I read this article.
I agree with all of the commenters who basically equated this to the Harold
Camping debacle this year.
Mr. Chang, don't clog up my beautiful FP front page with your pitiful
request to push the end of times one year ahead.
REPLY
BEREZKOV
12:41 PM ET
December 30, 2011
VERY DANGEROUS
In my opinion it is very dangerous and unconfident paper. The author talks
about China's collapse. So, he suggest that now this state is on the strong
position. So, why author "predicts" bad future for prosperous and stable
country? Does this collapse will improve International Relations or wil
democratizise China? It is quite clearly that China's economic slowdown will
lead to the crisis in the all South East Asia region and will stimulate
humanitarian disaster. Is the author politically adequate then he speak (so
calmly)about new crisis in Asia? Is the author for the unstable world? If
not, he must be more carefull with the foreseen in the IR . Chine is very
subtile country, with subtile history and its own tradition. Fundemental
elements of democration in their pure forms (as in the USA, or Great Britain
) are new and sometimes alien for it's community. However, the forms of
feudal terrany as we just saw in North Korea are not in the case of China.
So, there should be find the balance between just mentioned forms of state-
ruking (democracy or terrny), but not cardinal and drasticall changes.
REPLY
MJKT
5:56 PM ET
December 30, 2011
China and the current government are not the same thing
I think the point is an economic slowdown (not necessarily an economic
collapse) would make it more difficult for the current authoritarian
government to hold on to power.
I think what the world would like to see is not the collapse of China but
instead the collapse of the authoritarian government of China. It would be
much easier to welcome China into the community of nations if China could be
free AND prosperous much like the Chinese in Taiwan and to a lessor extent
(on the free side) Hong Kong have shown us can be.
I think any time "collapse" and "China" are mentioned in the same thought
Chinese nationalism kicks in and Chinese people become defensive. It becomes
difficult for a nationalist mind to separate the idea of the current
government of China from the greater idea and nation of China. A free, open,
democratic, and prosperous China would be good for the world. A closed,
censored, authoritarian China operating behind hidden motives is not good
for the world.
Attacking the current Chinese government about the civil liberties of her
people is not the same as attacking China or the people of China any more
than an American voting for a different candidate for president than is
currently in office is an attack on the United States.
REPLY
SQUEEK
7:58 PM ET
December 30, 2011
It seems far-fetched to say
It seems far-fetched to say that a slow-down in the CPC PB is an indication
of 'divided government.' The Gang of Four and the period during and after
Tianamin Square were eras of divided government. And even these were easily
absorbed by the CPC.
If anything propels reform in China, it seems the local protests like those
in Wukan will. I last read that the Provincial Government is now involved,
showing a good communist better be able to respond to popular demands or
risk his career.
It seems the Chinese are very interested in the 'rule of law' and demanding
it in hot spots across the nation. But the CPC is in a different position
than the Soviets or the Middle East autocrats.
It's ruled over a dynamic, growing economy for almost 3 decades. Why would
the Chinese want to dismantle the government now? Reform, yes. But the end
of the CPC in 2012? Forget it.
BTW, your analysis is rather cavalier in not addressing what would happen,
who would rule and how if the CPC fell. You lack credibility
REPLY
KAMATH
11:45 PM ET
December 30, 2011
Collapse of China.
Oh please don't say that Mr. Chang. I have spent oodles of dollars to learn
how to kow tow and have registered in long distance learning courses of a
well known Confucious Institute.
Will all be a waste?
REPLY | w*p
发帖数: 16484 | 12 呵呵，有趣
2011.
【在 g*****1 的大作中提到】
: 常家蹲还是重复他的念咒一般的老生常谈，根本不值一提。
: 可读是读者的评论。
: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/29/the_coming_col
: MESS_MEDIA
: 9:18 PM ET
: December 29, 2011
: Yeah, I was wrong when I
: Yeah, I was wrong when I predicted that the world would end on May 21, 2011.
: It should end on October 21.
: -Harold Camping
| i*****g
发帖数: 11893 | 13 这人真是J8废，
唉，民主制度下，老有一些智障患者出来，还居然是公众人物
等美帝没落后，肯定是丑陋无比的一个社会 | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 14 靠，俺们的同志开始被怀疑了
2011.
【在 g*****1 的大作中提到】
: 常家蹲还是重复他的念咒一般的老生常谈，根本不值一提。
: 可读是读者的评论。
: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/29/the_coming_col
: MESS_MEDIA
: 9:18 PM ET
: December 29, 2011
: Yeah, I was wrong when I
: Yeah, I was wrong when I predicted that the world would end on May 21, 2011.
: It should end on October 21.
: -Harold Camping
| Z**R
发帖数: 1233 | 15 可以出「中國即將崩潰」2012年修订第二版（The Coming Collapse of China）
然后2022年还可以出第三版。。。
这辈子就指着这个吃了。。。
2012
【在 c***n 的大作中提到】
: 曾預言中共政權將在2011年垮台的美籍華裔作家章家敦，昨天在「外交政策」雜誌發表
: 文章，承認預測錯誤，但他仍認為，共產黨會在2012年垮台。
: 章家敦（Gordon Chang）在2001年出版「中國即將崩潰」（The Coming Collapse of
: China）一書，預言中共政權將於10年內垮台。10年過去，他的預言顯然未實現。
: 2011年結束前夕，章家敦昨天在美國外交政策（Foreign Policy）雜誌再度發表「2012
: 年版中國即將崩潰」文章解釋，預言未實現，是因中共保護國內市場，拒絕國外競爭所
: 致。
: 章家敦說，當年預測中共10年內垮台，是根據中國將加入世界貿易組織（WTO）開放市
: 場所做的推論。中共未垮，和北京當局規避世貿法規，拒絕開放市場，國際社會對大陸
: 忍氣吞聲所致。
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