S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 1 free Registration needed.
Well M* published his piece also
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?
Some background. Mr. Grantham called the market tops of 2000 and 2007 (
within 18 months, which is close enough) and he also wrote a bullish piece
saying BUY! in March, 2009.
Unfortunately for me back then (until ~ 2009) I was a novice (not fresh, but
novice) investor and a happy indexer so to speak. I was so happy that I
walked off the cliff with confidence. Luckily I did n... 阅读全帖 |
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h******t
发帖数: 872 | 2 http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/28/the-coming-commodity-
The coming commodity price nightmare
Posted by Colin Barr
April 28, 2011 6:34 am
Here's another sign we have much bigger inflation problems than Ben Bernanke.
The commodity price boom we've all been bellyaching about for the past six
months started not in August, when the Fed chief first started talking about
quantitative easing, but a full eight years earlier – when Bernanke was
but a Fed governor and the housing bubble was a mere ... 阅读全帖 |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 3 看了Downton Abbey，发现对英国爵位，称号还是不很清楚，结果在网上找来个简介，
这下清楚多了。这里分享一下
After a long discussion last night in the tiny chat about aristocratic
titles, I thought it might be a good idea to have the information down
somewhere where everyone can see it and refer to it. My sources are mainly http://laura.chinet.com/html/titles01.html (which will tell you EVERYTHING that you could ever want to know) as well as three years grappling and getting on top of them for writing Regency set stories. The titles from Downto... 阅读全帖 |
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s**s
发帖数: 260 | 4 布道哥的防守很象巴马的防守，因为布道哥的Defensive Coordinator是Todd Grantham.
这个Todd Grantham 就是 早先Saban在MichiganState开始发迹时的Defensive Line
Coach.可以说Saban赖以成名的3-4防守法，就是由Todd Grantham最先实现的。Todd
Grantham和Saban既是上下级关系，也是师徒，朋友。
实际上，布道哥是想以Saban的防守法来对抗Saban。 从Todd和Saban的关系看，Todd对
3-4法的运用，至少不会低Saban太多。青出于蓝也未可知。Todd现在是NCAA工资最高的
coordinator， 由此可见布道哥对其多么重视。
Saban到Bama后，第一年很困难，6-6战绩实属不易。主要是3-4 法太难。 同样，Todd
在布道哥第一年也很困难，布道哥在2010年 也是6-6。
Saban在2008年带领巴马进军SEC Championship,Todd 在今年也可以进军SEC
Championship。 这足以表明3-4防守的功绩。
再来看师徒双方的防守成绩：
... 阅读全帖 |
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C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 5 看了第一季第一集，果然如人所言，拍得很不错。有没有其他版友喜欢这部戏的？
BTW，一看演Lady Grantham的女演员就眼熟，讲话也带美国口音，原来是Elizabeth
McGovern演的，而且Lady Grantham就是美国人。那个时代，穷英国贵族和富美国暴发
户联姻很常见，一方要钱，一方要名，各取所需，很符合时代背景。
还有个问题，Lord Grantham在袭爵Earl of Grantham（伯爵)之前，其实已有爵位为
Viscount of Downton（子爵，这个应该是Downton Abbey的由来，一家两爵，甚至多爵
还是常见的）。袭爵以后这个子爵给谁了？是不是没人袭爵就没了？ |
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t*******2
发帖数: 301 | 6 Mr.Bates报复杀死Green的事情会被举报，背后的小人Thomas将为此而招来杀身之祸。
我感觉，没有Ms.Obrian，Thomas就没有了可以与之精彩互动的对手，编剧有理由让
Thomas这个角色也随Ms.Obrian一起消失。
网上赌唐顿接下来哪个角色会死去的可能性，比分最高的正是Thomas.
Next Major Character To Die In Downton Abbey:
5/2 Thomas Barrow
9/2 Bates
7/1 Dowager Countess of Grantham
8/1 Earl of Grantham
10/1 Mrs Patmore
12/1 Molesley
16/1 Carson, Mrs Hughes, Anna
20/1 Daisy, Ethel
25/1 Lady Mary, Tom Branson, Countess Grantham, Ivy, Lady Rose
33/1 Lady Edith |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 7 I am not familiar with the funds you mentioned other than FCNTX, mainly
because it is in our 401(k). Will is a great manager, IMHO one of the best
in business, but it irks me a lot that Fido keeps it open at nearly $100B.
Adding other funds Will managed with similar style, the total probably is
above $120B. The only thing I can think of positively is the fees reduced a
little bit to 0.74%. Going forward, he will be hard-pressed to outperform
benchmark, it is just a cash cow for Fido.
Accroding t... 阅读全帖 |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 8 A Presidential Reason to Buy Stocks By JEFF SOMMER
Published by NY TIMES on October 9, 2010
ECONOMIC growth is precarious, unemployment is painfully high, debt levels
are staggering and the stock market isn’t all that cheap.
That’s the view of Jeremy Grantham, the chief investment strategist at GMO,
the Boston investment firm, who believes that the stock market is bound to
endure some very lean years. But in the near term, there is a good chance
that the market will rally, he said.
Why? “We are... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 9 更新内容：
Ohio State: Luke Fickell ($750,000), Everett Withers ($450,000), Tom Herman ($420,000), Mickey Mariotti ($380,000), Ed Warriner ($350,000), Tim Hinton ($275,000), Stan Drayton ($275,000).
市长对旧臣还是很器重的。笼络人心啊。
Arizona: Defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel will reportedly earn $425,000 per year.
RR霸业可期啊
Alabama: Doug Nussmeier - new OC; Tyrone Nix - new DC; Lance Thompson - new DL coach.
塞班招来PRO-STYLE的进攻大师，经验丰富的SEC防守牛人，还有SEC招生达人。BAMA继续各种牛逼。
Wisconsin: As first reported, Western Kentucky offensiv... 阅读全帖 |
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k********k
发帖数: 5617 | 10 http://gma.yahoo.com/margaret-thatcher--britain-s--iron-lady--p
Margaret Thatcher, Britain's 'Iron Lady' Prime Minister, Dead at 87
By DAVID WRIGHT | ABC News – 1 hour 17 minutes ago
Margaret Thatcher, the first woman ever to serve as prime minister of Great
Britain and the longest-serving British prime minister of the 20th century
has died at age 87.
"It is with great sadness that Mark and Carol Thatcher announced that their
mother Baroness Thatcher died peacefully following a stroke this morni... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 11 2011-2020，美国经济的黑暗十年
作者：Paul B. Farrell 文章发于：华尔街日报 点击数：1007 更新时间：
2011-8-25 【字体：小 大】
【复制本文】 【下载本文】
未来十年是什么样？险恶的政局准会让经济问题比今天还要糟糕得多。
哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)教授罗伯特•里伯曼(Robert Lieberman)今
年早些时候在《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志上撰文称，“美国经济似乎正在走
向崩溃”。
乔希•罗金(Josh Rogin)日前也在《外交事务》杂志上撰文警告称，“这一仗还
没完：你是不是觉得没完没了的债务上限谈判丑陋不堪？其实国会的争斗并没有结束，
不过是刚刚热身呢。”。等今年秋季休会期结束，议员们重返国会时，“还有八场外交
政策战要打”，经济复苏会受到进一步拖累。 ...华岳论坛 - "http://washeng.net"
8月初标准普尔公司(S&P)下调美国信用评级，股市单日下跌513点，经济陷入二次衰退
，这些都是例证。
另一... 阅读全帖 |
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p******u
发帖数: 14642 | 12 郁闷
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-30/titanic-ii-to-be-built
Titanic II Planned by Billionaire Palmer in Chinese Yard
Australian billionaire Clive Palmer plans to build a 21st-century replica of
the Titanic and sail it from England to New York accompanied by the Chinese
navy by the end of 2016.
Palmer has signed a first-stage agreement with Nanjing- based CSC Jinling
Shipyard to build the ship as part of a planned fleet of luxury liners, the
Gold Coast, Queensland-based businessman said in... 阅读全帖 |
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m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 13 97年以后，港人，才当家做了第一次主
历任总督列表[编辑]
任期 肖像 总督 任期始于 任期终于
1
香港行政官
Charles Elliot.png 查理·义律爵士
Sir Charles Elliot
1841年1月26日 1841年8月
2
香港行政官
Hk01PT.jpg 砵甸乍爵士
Sir Henry POTTINGER
1841年8月 1843年6月25日
1 1843年6月26日 1844年5月7日
2 John Francis Davis.jpg 戴维斯爵士
Sir John Francis DAVIS
又译爹核士、德庇时
1844年5月8日 1848年3月21日
3 Sir Samuel George Bonham.jpg 文咸爵士
Sir Samuel George BONHAM
又译般咸、般含、文翰
1848年3月21日 1854年4月13日
4 JohnBowring1826.PNG 宝灵爵士
Sir John BOWRING
又译宝宁、包令
1854年4... 阅读全帖 |
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f******d
发帖数: 2394 | 14 心虚了？不是告诉你了么中崩元年是2013年。看中国经济就看房价。2013年是顶点。现
在是缓坡下降（听说过股市里的尖底圆顶么？）。一旦加速下降，就是主跌浪开始了，
学名叫中国金融危机。当然这会是美国的叫法，中国会把它叫做第二次金融危机（暗示
是美国引起的）。你可以很快验证看看这名词。如果你真好学的话，下面给你贴一篇教
学文章。其中的几个名人，Bill Gross，是太平洋基金的创始人之一，也是中投2011年
雇的朱长虹的老板的老板。George Soros，大名鼎鼎，就不多说了。Michael Diekmann
，世界最大的保险公司的老板。这篇文章里有很多信息，都和现在的金融市场和即将发
生的金融危机相关。
Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked
By Mary Childs - Dec 3, 2014
Bill Gross, the 70-year-old king of bonds, rushed through the offices of his
$2 trillion empire on a ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********o
发帖数: 6388 | 15 http://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170209/africa-china-train/
1月，非洲首辆跨国界的电力列车从吉布提开往埃塞俄比亚。
吉布提——上个月，一趟上午10点24分发自吉布提首都的火车引来了非洲之角一些最重
要的人物。在部落歌手合唱团的演唱声中，一大群非洲领导人、欧洲外交官，以及流行
文化的偶像，在新建的火车站爬上楼梯，快乐地竞相进入全新的、有空调的车厢，乘坐
了这趟首次运行的列车。
“这的确是一个历史性的时刻，值得我们两国和两国人民自豪，”埃塞俄比亚总理海尔
马里亚姆·德萨莱尼(Hailemariam Desalegn)在这趟开往埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴
的列车启程前不久时说。“这条铁路将改变我们两国的社会和经济布局。”这是非洲的
第一条电气化跨国铁路。
但那天最大的明星也许是中国，中国设计了这个系统，提供了火车，并在规划和建设这
条全长753公里的铁路的六年间，输入了数百名工程师。那40亿美元的造价呢？中国银
行提供了几乎所有的资金。
中国已建成了世界上覆盖最广、最现代化的铁路网络之一，现在中国正在把其雄厚的资
源和专业知识带给世界。中... 阅读全帖 |
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m******8
发帖数: 2153 | 17 华尔街日报：2011-2020，美国经济的黑暗十年 华尔街日报
未来十年是什么样？险恶的政局准会让经济问题比今天还要糟糕得多。
哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)教授罗伯特•里伯曼(Robert Lieberman)今
年早些时候在《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志上撰文称，“美国经济似乎正在走
向崩溃”。
乔希•罗金(Josh Rogin)日前也在《外交事务》杂志上撰文警告称，“这一仗还
没完：你是不是觉得没完没了的债务上限谈判丑陋不堪？其实国会的争斗并没有结束，
不过是刚刚热身呢。”。等今年秋季休会期结束，议员们重返国会时，“还有八场外交
政策战要打”，经济复苏会受到进一步拖累。
8月初标准普尔公司(S&P)下调美国信用评级，股市单日下跌513点，经济陷入二次衰退
，这些都是例证。
另一名外交政策专家詹姆斯•陶布(James Taub)警告称，透过债务上限协议，我
们看到的是茶党(Tea Party)对美国国力的可怕设想。
我们将面临一场灾难。陶布写道，“只有枪炮，没有黄油……国库里的钱一股脑地全充
作军费……... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 18 In that dreary winter of 1979, the piles of uncollected trash in London's
Finsbury Park seemed to stretch for miles. The garbagemen were on strike. So
too, at one time or another, were hospital workers, ambulance drivers,
truck drivers, railwaymen. Also gravediggers: In Liverpool, corpses had to
be warehoused as they awaited burial—yet another long queue that socialist
Britain had arranged for its patient masses.
This was the "Winter of Discontent," when Great Britain came about as close
to econ... 阅读全帖 |
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h*9
发帖数: 38 | 20 As Grantham points out, a bubble needs two things: excellent fundamentals
and easy money.
"The mechanism is surprisingly simple," he wrote. "Perfect conditions create
very strong 'animal spirits,' reflected statistically in a low risk premium
. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on
their optimism."
And it becomes self-sustaining. "The more leverage you take, the better you
do; the better you do, the more leverage you take. A critical part of a
bubble is the rei |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 21 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
starwood (四大伍德) 于 (Fri Oct 24 21:44:28 2008) 提到:
this is quoted from his third quarter letter from GMO:
summary: S&P 500 fair value: 975. bottom: 600-800 in next two years.
"How Low Is Low?
We have a pretty good fi x on fair values. For the S&P
500 we believe it is about 975 ±25. This is calculated,
as always, by the simple technique of assuming that at
fair price we will have a normal P/E ratio, and that profi t
margins will also be normal. We also s |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 22 Jeremy Grantham also noted the EM valuation is higher than the DM. His
opinion seems to be that high valuation, justified or not, will remain for
some extended period of time. |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 23 I'm not engaging in any debates. I am tranfering this article to see what
other value investors think about the OP's question.
As I said, most value investors do not agree eye to eye with each other on
what is value investing. The only things they agree are "the idea that a
bigger safety margin is better than a smaller one, that cheaper is better
than more expensive, that more cash is better than less cash", and in Jeremy
Grantham's word, deserves a modern “Duh!” and to make that a theory is "
e |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 24 While I respect Grantham, as he has a very very good methodology based on
valuations, and his asset allocation recommendations carries heavy weight on my personal allocation decision, I do not agree his criticism on the Fed policy under Ben.
His recommendations
1) Emphasize U.S. quality companies, which are still
cheap in an overpriced world.
2) Moderately overweight emerging market equities.
3) Moderately underweight the balance of global equities.
4) Heavily underweight lower quality U.S. com... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 27 Calm down, pal. Guys come to this forum not just looking for facts...they
are more interested in investment implications. People have different
perspective and opinions even if they have the same data, and that makes a
market. So if you are bearish on China, how will you invest? If someone else
thought China is doing OK, and given the current valuation, probably (s)he
should significantly overweight China equity and RE. One step further, if
one think China's (infrastructure) investment driven ec... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 28 Grantham said it nicely.
"Be prudent and you’ll probably forego gains. Be risky and you’ll probably
make some more money, but you may be bushwhacked and, if you are, your
excuses will look thin. Your call." |
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v******s
发帖数: 435 | 32 【 以下文字转载自 Quant 讨论区 】
发信人: victorjs (victorjs), 信区: Quant
标 题: 请问有没有人了解GMO这家公司
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 1 21:30:12 2016, 美东)
在波士顿的一家asset management firm，全名叫grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
不知道有没有人了解这家公司的情况，culture怎么样？听说他们不能trade
deravitive？对于quant是不是以后发展会受到些影响，比如跳槽什么的？
另外具体的话他家的International Active team怎么样？
谢谢！ |
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w**********k
发帖数: 758 | 34 过去的10年, 花街是赢家 (证据是, GS的 $100-million-profit trading days, 以及
Blankfein的 $68 million bonus) ... 大盘将持续下跌, 经济改革注定于事无补.
花街这个赌场把Blankfein以及GS这样的内线造就成了mega-billions. 在花街的操盘
下, 2000-2010十年间, main street的401(k)已经损失了20%.
在2010-2020这未来的十年, 大盘继续下跌20%的可能性更大. 不错, 今天的市场是"买
入的机会", 但这是对花街内线如对冲基金经理Barton Biggs这样的人而言, 甚至包括"
赌场"的下层员工. 但是绝对不适于95 million的普通投资者.
痛苦还在前头, 市场正在下跌之中.
早前经济学家Gary Shilling指出, price-to-earnings ratios 高达"22.5", 那时Dow
还在11,000左右. 基金经理Jeremy Grantham最近指出, 市场透支了40%. 这意味着大底
可能在6600左右. |
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a*********g
发帖数: 8087 | 35 好吧，我对此是不抱希望的。苹果公司(Apple)的股价能到1,000美元？
18个月以前，我曾质疑过苹果股价能否保持其惊人的势头，我当时这样写道：“过去五
年来，苹果公司股价每年的平均涨幅为56%，这是个了不起的成绩。如果保持类似增速
，那么到2014年苹果公司的市值将达到1.25万亿美元。即使以更加温和的每年20%的速
度增长，其市值届时也将达到3,330亿美元——超过埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)当前的市
值，并相当于宝洁(Procter & Gamble)或强生(Johnson & Johnson)市值的两倍。虽然
什么事都可能发生，但这似乎有点儿天方夜谭。”我认为，对苹果公司的投资者来说，
最容易赚钱的日子显然已经过去了。
当然，从那以后，苹果公司的表现让我简直就像个大白痴：其股价已经翻了一倍以上。
最近，受到移动运营商Verizon推出iPhone消息的刺激，苹果公司的股价创下了344美元
的历史新高。该公司当前的市值达到了3,150亿美元，超过了宝洁、强生，也超过了除
埃克森美孚以外的任何一家公司。而苹果股价的上涨趋势非但没有放缓，反而加速了。
根据我的计算，其年化增... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********8
发帖数: 901 | 36 China's boom since 2009 was fueled by massive domestic debt issuance, which
was unsustainable and is reversing. In addition, one Chinese company after
another is being revealed as a fraud – and then crashing. These are not
isolated events. I have studied Chinese companies for more than a decade.
Out of all the stocks I've analyzed closely, I've only seen a handful I didn
't believe were fraudulent.
So far, none of the major Chinese banks have come under serious scrutiny.
But I believe they will…... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****g
发帖数: 162 | 38 听听历史上最成功的投资者的建议
via www.JZTZP.com 价值投资博客 - 首页 on 1/26/13
1、George Soros：好的投资总是无聊的。
“如果把投资看做一种娱乐，如果你从中获得了乐趣，那你很有可能赚不到钱。好的投
资总是无聊的。”
2、Howard Marks：投资不仅仅是选择资产。
“聪明的投资不仅仅是购买好的资产，还包括很好的方式购买资产。这一点很重要，但
极少有人能理解。”
3、Jack Bogle：损失是市场的现实。
“如果你连损失20%都接受不了，那你就不应该炒股。”
4、Bob Farrell：不要随大流。
“公众总是在最高点买入，在最低点卖出。当所有专家和预测都趋向一致时，一些事就
会发生。”
5、Jeremy Grantham：认识到你相比专业投资者的优势。
“到目前为止，专业投资者在投资中的最大问题是保住工作和面临风险之间的矛盾。第
二大问题是他们必须过度操作，以显得他们很忙碌。而个人投资者则可以耐心等待时机
，不必在意其他人在做什么。专业投资者无法做到这一点。”
6、John Templeton：别忘了要交税。
“对于所有长期投资者而言... 阅读全帖 |
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c****0
发帖数: 993 | 39 【 以下文字转载自 Hardware 讨论区 】
发信人: johnnie502 (Keep your feet on the ground.), 信区: Hardware
标 题: 历史上理工WSN投机惨败的案例
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 9 11:46:00 2013, 美东)
Newton had the great good luck to get into the South Sea Bubble early. He
made a really decent investment and a very quick killing, which mattered to
him. It was enough to count. He then got out, and suffered the most painful
experience that can happen in investing: he watched all of his friends
getting disgustingly rich. He lost his cool and ... 阅读全帖 |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 40 建议熊熊读读最近Jeremy Grantham的评论，这人可是熊军第一大将，管理100B的基金
，预测了08大跌 他的基本看法就是spx要至少先去2300才可能去1500 |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 41 But I think the global economy and the U.S. in particular will do better
than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate the slow
-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and
the availability of capacity both in labor and machinery
I still believe that, with the help of the Fed and its allies, the U.S.
market will rally once again to become a fully-fledged bubble (>2300) before
it breaks.
-Jeremy Grantham |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 42 建议熊熊读读最近Jeremy Grantham的评论，这人可是熊军第一大将，管理100B的基金
，预测了08大跌 他的基本看法就是spx要至少先去2300才可能去1500 |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 43 But I think the global economy and the U.S. in particular will do better
than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate the slow
-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and
the availability of capacity both in labor and machinery
I still believe that, with the help of the Fed and its allies, the U.S.
market will rally once again to become a fully-fledged bubble (>2300) before
it breaks.
-Jeremy Grantham |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 44 大盘根本不需要新高，搞死些 overconfident (jeremy grantham今年用来描述熊熊的
词)熊熊问题不大 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 47 没说我要去，只是好奇而已，我儿子play date的小朋友，他爸爸在那里做quant，应该
是做基本面的，平时很低调的一个犹太人，有时还苦苦穷的那种。两家认识有差不多一
年了，经常出去陪着孩子们玩，最近他们家有点做事不地道，把我老婆惹怒了。昨天我
就好奇得在linkedin上查查他，发现原来他教育背景很强的。 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 49 不展开了，我一般不愿意让我老婆（其他家人也一样）知道不开心的事情，和其他人交
往的时候，有想法我也不和她说的，只要她开开心心就好了，比如过圣诞节她张罗着要
给这个寄东西给那个买礼物，跟我讲，我都呵呵呵。
但这次把她给彻底弄愤怒了，从礼拜天开始，天天晚上跟我讲他们家的事。昨天晚上我
也被弄得彻底愤怒了。 |
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j***1
发帖数: 450 | 50 haha. i knew ur mom and i would make better friends!
u should give it a try. I didn't watch it for the entire first 2 seasons,
and i started watching it when the 3rd season started several weeks ago,
didn't get into it the first episode, i felt it was alright.
but then i saw the episode where the middle daughter Lady Edith, a spinster,
was in love with this older man. but Edith's dad, lord Grantham, objected
but finally relented, and they were gonna get married. But the older man
left her at ... 阅读全帖 |
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