j*******0
发帖数: 44 | 1 some useful data for FY07, FY08, FY09, FY10
Perm Data(EB2&3 Approved in the FY)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
China 6846 3328 2094 4000
India 24573 16569 11387 29000
In FY07, I take a look at the EB2 485 inventory:
average monthly Chinese EB2 485 submitted is 700
average monthly India EB2 485 submitted is 1600
I guess the monthly Chinese EB2 demand for FY08 will decrease to 400(from
the perm data trend).
But the monthly India EB2 demand for FY08 will not decrease a... 阅读全帖 |
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h***s
发帖数: 2499 | 2 From: Arthur Bienenstock, President, the American Physical Society
To: Members of the American Physical Society
Re: Update: Impact of FY08 Federal Budget on Science:
http://www.aps.org/policy/tools/alerts
Thank you to the 3000 of you who answered my request last week to write to
Congress. I am writing to update you on further impacts of the FY08 Budget
on science and to urge more of you to write to your representative, senators
, and the president.
While the FY08 budget imp |
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l****i
发帖数: 3339 | 3 Based on vinbaggio's post
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31432379_4.html
FY07 FY08 FY09
C 8689 5040 3024
I 15991 9275* 5565
T 24680 14315 8589
Your estimation for FY08 I is low
His data is around 8k more than yours, so it is more likely only pass FY08 |
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l****i
发帖数: 3339 | 4 Based on vinbaggio's post
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31432379_4.html
FY07 FY08 FY09
C 8689 5040 3024
I 15991 9275* 5565
T 24680 14315 8589
Your estimation for FY08 I is low
His data is around 8k more than yours, so it is more likely only pass FY08 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 5 PWMB会大致在FY08年的perm中或多或少表现出来，从目前来看，我不觉得有1000人那么
多。整个FY08批准的perm只有2000多人，还是2+3类，我觉得PWMB最多也就500人左右 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 6 主要reference是
1：I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated August 28, 2009)
2：2009 LC annual report http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/2009_Annual_Report.pdf
FY2009 annual report里有这么一句话：
“In FY 2008, there was a 42 percent decrease from FY
2007 in cases certifi ed. In FY 2009, there were 29,502
cases certifi ed representing a 40 percent decrease from
the number of cases certifi ed in FY 2008.”
这基本反映了demand的变化，所以对于FY07,FY08,FY09，EB2demand应该与这个相应，
所以demand应该为
FY07 FY08 FY... 阅读全帖 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 7 考虑到annual summary中提到，FY08 employment based lc demand急剧减小47%，FY09
继续减少40%，我不认为FY08的demand会和FY07的数字差不多。那个帖子里有太多
estimation，不是非常accurate。 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 9 主要reference是
1：I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated August 28, 2009)
2：2009 LC annual report http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/2009_Annual_Report.pdf
FY2009 annual report里有这么一句话：
“In FY 2008, there was a 42 percent decrease from FY
2007 in cases certifi ed. In FY 2009, there were 29,502
cases certifi ed representing a 40 percent decrease from
the number of cases certifi ed in FY 2008.”
这基本反映了demand的变化，所以对于FY07,FY08,FY09，EB2demand应该与这个相应，
所以demand应该为
FY07 FY08 FY... 阅读全帖 |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 10 考虑到annual summary中提到，FY08 employment based lc demand急剧减小47%，FY09
继续减少40%，我不认为FY08的demand会和FY07的数字差不多。那个帖子里有太多
estimation，不是非常accurate。 |
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p*******t
发帖数: 43 | 12 当然假设是FY08年的demand和FY07年持平，目前看应该是略有下降
Perm stat 2007 85k, 2008 49k, 2009 29k for all Eb2 and EB3.
So how could FY08年的demand和FY07年持平???
I-
.7 |
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c*******6
发帖数: 686 | 13 EB3都是PERM, 可以从PERM 批准量上分析大概结果
FY06 ROW-32107
FY07 ROW-32434
FY08 ROW-17211
FY09 ROW-10128
FY10 ROW-22376
FY11 ROW-15111
FY12 ROW-12852
FY10大致处理了2009.01-2010.07共18个月的PERM申请/
FY11大致处理了2010.07-2011.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY12大致处理了2011.07-2012.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY13大致处理了2012.08-2013.02共7个月的PERM申请/
FY08-12的PERM水平基本一致
1.其中FY10显示稍多 是因为处理时间加快,处理了18个月的申请
2.如果EB2/3 在PERM比例一直保持一致
EB3ROW inventory 应该保持基本一致的水平
如果除掉Audit 的case, FY09-12 实际EB3ROW数量应该更低
对于史前的case，我猜是史前的烙印和它族联姻了 ：）
处理时间 - Analyst Review - Audited
2009.03.... 阅读全帖 |
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v******i
发帖数: 1246 | 15 真的很像。。。。。FY08 头两天收到了13w个申请。。。。 |
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J*****R
发帖数: 324 | 16 FY08年度H1b两次抽签都中了得飘过.....
65000 |
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b**c
发帖数: 163 | 17 fee不对的话……确实是当场就拒，根本不参加抽签的。。。
以及07(FY08)的时候regular cap也抽了，master cap4月30号才用完 |
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J*****R
发帖数: 324 | 18 relax. you guys will be all fine! |
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w****r
发帖数: 15252 | 19 if guys here all fine, how about guys not here. |
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j****2
发帖数: 84 | 20 Bless you guys all and myself! |
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i***r
发帖数: 1885 | 22 So I am glad that I am here. |
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h********w
发帖数: 221 | 23 I am glad that I am here |
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d****r
发帖数: 300 | 27 April 3, 2007
H-1B Cap Reached on April 2, 2007 - USCIS to Conduct 2-Day Lottery.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has received enough H-1B
petitions to meet the congressionally mandated cap for fiscal year 2008 (
FY08). USCIS has determined that the "final receipt date" is April 2, 2007.
Consistent with USCIS regulations, USCIS will randomly apply all of the
numbers among the petitions filed on April 2 and April 3.
By late afternoon on April 2, USCIS received over 150,000 cap-s |
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h**e
发帖数: 410 | 28 EB2C和EB3C完蛋的标准完全不同，EB2一年配额2800，EB3一年2500，FY08-FY10，
EB2C超过自己的总配额三年多拿了将近6000，EB3C连自己的配额都拿不足，三年
总共少了1600，现在EB2情况吃紧，有人嚷嚷EB2完蛋了，比上不足。比下有余，
想想EB3兄弟吧。
EB2还是比EB3快两年半，这种排期至少两年的差距未来三年内会保持，明白的
EB3，还是快转EB2吧，你不是和自己人抢名额，而是和阿三EB3转EB2的抢名额。 |
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P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 29 FY06：764
FY07：6846
FY08：3328
FY09：2112
FY10：4052
一共一万七左右。
不算，NIW和dependents，如果加成按照2.2算的话3万七左右。
每年名额，EB2 2801, EB3 2801人（含家属）
37000/5602 = 6.67年就能把FY10的清光。
08，09年应该可以有FB的名额挪过来。所以最坏情况，2017年也能把09.30.2010的PD清
光。
情况只能更好。不知道你们悲观什么。 |
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k********o
发帖数: 1139 | 30 "整个FY08批准的perm只有2000多人" 这个怎么可能？光中国人都不只这个数吧？ |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 31 FY08,09,10批准的perm就是PWMB+大潮后的人。但如果都算成PD2008，那么太
conservative了
然后PWMB又double conservative by adding 3000 more. |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 32 然后根据FY08,09,10的perm数量，加上1.3的系数
大潮后大约11K左右demand |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 34 we have to capture the major trend in the PERM certificate system. The
annual report basically concludes that from FY08, the labor certificates
decrease at a speed around 40% annually. I seriously question how come the
Indian demand is larger than 20K/year, which is larger than 2007. |
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 35 we have to capture the major trend in the PERM certificate system. The
annual report basically concludes that from FY08, the labor certificates
decrease at a speed around 40% annually. I seriously question how come the
Indian demand is larger than 20K/year, which is larger than 2007. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 37 只看当年批准量是没有意义的
10年批的里边有多少是08年提交的？
你分析了吗？ |
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j*******0
发帖数: 44 | 38 It is the demand from eb i-485 inventory. you can see the data is consistent
. personally I think it helps to explain the trend. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 39 不过可以明显感到最近的demands不足。人气大不如过去。
但能跨过FY08确实是意外阿. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 40 不过可以明显感到最近的demands不足。人气大不如过去。
但能跨过FY08确实是意外阿. |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 41 I suppose the demand dropped some in FY08.
Many of my friends went back to China or upgraded to Eb1 as they cannot wait
that long. FY07 catch the DaChao thus nobody dropped out.
One more question, if you changed job, and would like to re-link the older
PD, could it be done before my old PD becomes C? I guess many people
switched jobs and just started this process as they have about 50 days to
submit 485. Demand on Dec.8 could be far less than usual, when people
usually submit on the 1st day of t... 阅读全帖 |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 42 还是要看demand data. 如果确有4万收到，那LZ 所说不无道理。
但似乎，实际收到的申请数量要低于根据PERM得出的预计。原因不祥，USCIS 也是困惑
.现在关键是在于08年的老鹰的实际申请会不会继续令人惊讶的低.FY08 老鹰的PERM 有
23352.老中有4134. 可是不算低. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 43 In this situation, the USCIS must ensure that there are enough visa # for
08PDs, otherwise, there could be some violation - you approved FY09 case,
but backlog FY08 case. |
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j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 44 FY08 Q4奥本发现有大量剩余，于是大门一开，一下跳了2年多，但其实没有那么多剩余
。开门开了2个月马上又退回去了。 |
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n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 46
我说的“很多”是相对而言的，没有EW和CP的数据，要真正搞清楚“大潮前PD但没交I-
485的”恐怕也不容易。好在真正有意义的是cutoff前进速度。
对于EB3C，去年10月初到今年4月初这6个月时间内用掉了70%的quota。同期内（实际上
用的是去年9月到今年3月），cutoff前进了14个月。因此，全年cutoff应该前进14/0.7
=20个月，也就是平均一个月前进1.67个月。
同样对EB3ROW，6个月前进了8个月，平均一个月前进1.33个月。1.67/1.33=125%，所以
EB3C就算多了25%的demand，也无关大局。
当然假设是FY08年的demand和FY07年持平，目前看应该是略有下降，因此速度会比这里
算的快一些。
如果收到的demand超过一个月（不是一年）的quota，实际发卡的cutoff date就会
retrogress的。因为法律规定PD在这个cutoff date之前的都要分到一个visa #，而每
个月能提供的visa #是有定额的。所以放水后的retrogress几乎是一定的。
奥本在今年早些时候的访谈中说了他们不喜欢retrogre... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 47 Dear (Congressman/Senator) (Last name):
I am an immigrant visa (green card) applicant living in New York’s nth
Congressional District, who has been approved in the employment-based second
preference category (EB-2). I am writing to bring to your attention that
the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) misallocated
visa numbers to this category in FY17, which has adversely affected me and
thousands of other petitioners.
This malfeasance has likely added 1+ year to the already... 阅读全帖 |
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P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: PaulPierce (Paul), 信区: EB23
标 题: 到现在为止所有PERM的数量
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 14:44:04 2011, 美东)
FY06：764
FY07：6846
FY08：3328
FY09：2112
FY10：4052
一共一万七左右。
不算，NIW和dependents，如果加成按照2.2算的话3万七左右。
每年名额，EB2 2801, EB3 2801人（含家属）
37000/5602 = 6.67年就能把FY10的清光。
08，09年应该可以有FB的名额挪过来。所以最坏情况，2017年也能把09.30.2010的PD清
光。
情况只能更好。不知道你们悲观什么。 |
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P********e
发帖数: 2610 | 49 给等绿卡的一点信心。
【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: PaulPierce (Paul), 信区: EB23
标 题: 到现在为止所有PERM的数量
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 14:44:04 2011, 美东)
FY06：764
FY07：6846
FY08：3328
FY09：2112
FY10：4052
一共一万七左右。
不算，NIW和dependents，如果加成按照2.2算的话3万七左右。
每年名额，EB2 2801, EB3 2801人（含家属）
37000/5602 = 6.67年就能把FY10的清光。
08，09年应该可以有FB的名额挪过来。所以最坏情况，2017年也能把09.30.2010的PD清
光。
情况只能更好。不知道你们悲观什么。 |
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s**b
发帖数: 169 | 50 ft..又发一遍
to
Budget
senators
vari
t |
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